Bautista Should Be Traded
by Jevant on Jul 27, 2010 4:12 PM EDT
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PrintIt's time for the Jays to trade Jose Bautista.
Why?
This is why. Everyone who has ever considered the issue of Bautista should read.
In an absolutely brilliant article, the case for trading Jose comes down to this little question right here:
And what keeps haunting me when I think of it all is this question: in two years time which Jays fan lament seems more realistic, "I can’t believe we traded Jose Bautista!" or "I can’t believe we didn’t trade Jose Bautista when his value was at its absolute highest?"
I, like Stoeten at DJF, believe the latter. And I don't think it's really all that difficult to make that decision.
Should they give Bautista away? Absolutely not. But this year is so far beyond Bautista's career norms that it is patently unreasonable to expect him to continue like this. Could he have taken a drastic leap forward? Yes. Or, he could be having a career season, like lots of players have all the time.
Again, I'm not saying give the guy away. But if a quality prospect (top 50?) is offered, I think AA has to seriously consider the possibility. Sell-high, buy-low is the quickest way back to contention. AA did it brilliantly with Alex Gonzalez for Yunel Escobar, and it's time to try again.
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i don't think anyone in their right mind
would hesitate for a second if someone offered a top-50 prospect for Bautista. i think the issue arises when you can get some probably Major Leaguers but no one that will have a serious impact in the League, because there’s nothing wrong with playing JoBau every day at third for one more year, even if (as you say) his value probably won’t ever be higher.
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I say keep him
Maybe i am letting my heart talk, but this guy can be a leader in our clubhouse for the next few years, especially to ant players from latin america that we have or may acquire.
I don’t think his numbers will fall back where they were, before sept 09. i think he is comfortable where he is, likes Toronto, and has tweeked his swing in a way that will continue to bring production.
If we want to contend in 2011, I think he could be a big part of that team.
by upstate jay fan on Jul 27, 2010 4:24 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree.
I don’t think the fact there is some young Latino talent in the organization and having a veteran presence (Who is also raking) can only help the transition. We’ve been saying for almost a year that “he can’t possibly keep this up” yet since last August, no one has hit more HR’s than our beloved Jedi. I’m tired of trading proven vets for young prospects. I’d like to keep him.
Obviously everyone is for sale for a certain price, but unless we get a “knock your socks off” prospect, I’d like to see him playing 3B next year for the Jays. Oh ya, if not JEdi, who the hell else is going to play 3rd?
by craig in calgary on Jul 27, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If a top 50 prospect and maybe a couple of top 100 guys or very high ceiling guys in A-ball come back from Jose
then i’d make the trade… if not, theres no point.
Its unlikely Jose will completely flame out. He is in his prime and will probably end up hitting 30HR a year for us for the next few years.
Onions Baby Onions
by ohmybosh on Jul 27, 2010 4:48 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Ehh
Really not a great post. There was a good comment in there though. You need to get a top 50-100 prospect back to compete in the AL East. Don’t give us someone like Emaus. We need to get a player back from the trade that compares to what Bautista is giving us now. Honestly one that projects (just projects that is) higher then that. Otherwise no point making the trade. That’s the problem with trading a player people are not sold on. You’re not going to get much for him.
by Arakasi on Jul 27, 2010 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, this is my opinion as well. The articule is fine but hardly “brillent”. It’s all well and good to propose that Bautista may end up a one year wonder and thus trade him now for a great return but it’s foolish to not factor in that other GM’s (armchair or real) aren’t thinking the same from their perspective… that Bautista may end up a one year wonder and thus trade for him at a “meh” price. If that’s the case I don’t see the point, nobody is untouchable but I’d rather roll the dice that this isn’t a freak season then trade him for someone/s who likely tops out at what we all expected Jose to be this past off-season.
I dunno, I think I’d rather keep him… I think the apprehension as to whether this is a freak season will prevent him from netting the team the optimal return, he’s helped keep the team reasonably competative/entertaining in this a rebuilding year, he plays D adaquately at 4 positions (5 including DH), and by virtue of the whole asking him to help out Escobar’s transition onto the team I have to figure he’s a respected/liked guy behind the scenes… this all has value to me even if the odds that he’ll smack dingers outta the park like this again aren’t the best in the world.
by Parallex on Jul 27, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Seems like
Everyone who wants AA to trade Jobau (people who think that he won’t keep up his #s) thinks the article is excellent
Everyone who wants Bautista to stay (people who think that he will keep up his #s) doesn’t think the article is all that great
It's like one of those planetarian laser light shows
In your mouth
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Jul 27, 2010 7:07 PM EDT reply actions
Not really
I would be fine with trading JBau. I just don’t think teams will pay what I think he’s worth. Stoeten’s point is we have to sell him for anything we can get, because in his opinion the risk is too great that he goes downhill next year.
I rather take a risk that Bautista can repeat this next year than to just give up, throw in the towel, and trade him for nothing.
by Joey P on Jul 27, 2010 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Its not like we'd get nothing
im sure a top 100 prospect has been offered for him.
I think the decision to not trade Jobau might be made from higher up. It would kill attendance and fan support even more if we traded away our best player.
Onions Baby Onions
I have to disagree
Fairly certain the fanbase reacted positively to trading Alex Gonzalez who was playing much much better than Yunel Escobar. How is this any different?
The fans are smart enough to realize that you have to give to get.
Gotta play 'em, might as well win 'em.
Gonzo was playing nowhere near as well as Jose
I didn’t get the feeling fans here liked him much. he hit a few homers and thats about it.
Onions Baby Onions
I don't think that's his point
They should put their trust in those scouts and in their analysis and should go out and get whatever the fuck they can for Bautista right now (well, not a bag of balls, but you know what I mean), rather than leave it to chance whether he’ll provide this kind of production or trade value again.
Gotta play 'em, might as well win 'em.
If the scouts can guarantee the prospects a Bautista trade would net will pan out
maybe start by having them scout Bautista himself.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Doesn't cut it
There’s no guarantees in baseball, obviously, just like there’s no guarantees that Bautista won’t go back to being the hitter he was for his entire career outside of the last 5 incredible months.
Gotta play 'em, might as well win 'em.
Stoeten and brilliant in the same sentence...
how long have you followed the drunks? They think Overbay’s an MVP caliber player.
by ABsteve on Jul 27, 2010 10:29 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
well in all fairness
his defence is
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Jul 27, 2010 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not calling you out specifically, but...
…they’re probably a lot closer to being right on Overbay than many are around here.
Gotta play 'em, might as well win 'em.
That should read...
Jose should be traded if AA can get appropriate compensation.
Article is completely BS
The reason why you cant trade Bautista unless you get blown away by a deal is simple: No one is going to make you an offer that plays up to his worth right now. If you sell him now for a “decent” package and then next year he hits 30 HRs you are going to look like an idiot for underselling him big time.
It comes down to him repeating performance…and there really is very little to signal a fluke. Bautista has always had a great eye, he takes walks and doesn’t swing at bad pitches (thus you cant conclude he’s just hacking at everything and getting lucky because hitters are throwing to him). The flyball rate is up, but he has obviously tweaked his swing into a very pull-friendly swing with loft. You cant tell me he’s getting “lucky” with home runs either: he is continually blasting them out of the stadium. Alex Gonzalez’s 17 HRs were a fluke because the majority of them were flyballs that barely cleared the wall; Bautista is absolutely smashing them.
This is also going on from the end of LAST SEASON by the way. Bautista led the majors with 10 HRs in September + October. If you remember, he also opened up this year by smashing the ball around in Spring Training as well.
Conclusion: Unless you get an offer worthy of landing an elite bat, it is a mistake to NOT let Bautista try to repeat this season in an environment that has proven to be very HR friendly. Hill and Lind are having terrible years with the bat and they are both sitting at 14 HRs. I think Bautista can sleep-walk his way to 25 HRs if he hits even remotely close to how he has been hitting.
by metafour on Jul 28, 2010 1:19 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
If you sell him now for a "decent" package and then next year he hits 30 HRs you are going to look like an idiot for underselling him big time.
Possible.
It’s also possible that Bautista reverts to the type of hitter he has been for every single moment in his career outside of the last 5 months. In that case, you’re going to look like an idiot for not selling him when you could get anything for him.
This is a guy that we got for virtually nothing, and has been passed around his entire career. I’m happy for him, but if you can get something decent for him, I think you have to take it.
Gotta play 'em, might as well win 'em.
You make it sounds like he has been consistently good over the past 5 months. Thats not really the case:
APRIL – .213/.314/.427 4 HR
MAY – .287/.422/.766 12 HR
JUNE – .179/.324/.369 4 HR
JULY – .330/.392/.739 10 HR (with three games to go)
April and June were pretty bad months. But its offset by the fact that May and July have been amazing months.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
But it still does mean you give him up for a sack of baseballs
I would rather see the Jays finish the season with Jose and pay him his arbitration money then trade him for a couple of C prospects.
Absolutely
I obviously am not suggesting that AA stick a sign on Bautista’s forehead that says “Free!”
But I think he’s got more value to a contender than people are giving him credit for. Detroit just lost Magglio for an extended period of time. They need an OF. If they’re not in on Werth, who are they in on?
The Yankees could use a RH bat to add to their OF.
Etc.
There’s not an abundance of big bats available right now. The Jays should be able to cash in on that.
Obviously, if nothing is there, nothing is there. And I wouldn’t be thrilled with a getting a C prospect either. But I can’t believe there isn’t a GM out there that wouldn’t think – “Hey, we can add a guy who at the very least is on fire this year who can help us”.
Gotta play 'em, might as well win 'em.
Bautista is one of those interesting (and fun) problems to have. I think the Jays are leaning towards keeping him, in part because other GMs aren’t willing to meet the price, and in part because his flexibility means you can have him all over the diamond if need be. Personally, if the Jays don’t get the value they want for him, I think they should offer an extension and see if they can get him signed for an extra three years at 20mil or so. It would be a big boost for him, an affordable contract for us, and even if this year is a mirage, we still have the Bautista we know; lots of walks, cannon arm, glimpses of power and the flexibility to play multiple positions as a somewhat expensive everyman player.
If this year is the new norm for him, well, man…
by dexfarkin on Jul 28, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Uhh
Detroit is not competing this year. They’re not buying right now because with their multitude of injuries they’d have to gut their farm system to get anywhere. Their GM has said they’ll not touch their good prospects.
Yankees I suppose could add him, they always have cap space.
The point is you need to get something good for him. Not just some A or Low A level talent. They need to get something more then what we got for Gonzalez. I said this on DJF, but if Bautista had been traded for Yunel I think the trade would have been JBau + one low A guy for Yunel. Instead of 2 A/AA guys. If AA can get someone of that talent level I’m all for it. Otherwise get him into a 3 year 18 million or so contract and I’d be fine.
If you do want a good DJF post though, go read the one Parkes just put up.
Even in those bad months
He has a good OBP. The guy draws a lot of walks. He’s never going to hit for more then .250-.260, but the walks are very valuable. Not to mention the position flexibility.
You can put up with the low average because of the walks and power.
If the power goes away and it is just walking with a low average he is not nearly as valuable.
I’ve said all year even when I didn’t think Bautista would keep it up that I still wanted the guy on my team because he was a flexible player that you could move around.
He’s got value, all I was pointing out by the numbers is that he has not HIT as consistently as some people were implying.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
He's always had power
Even in his earlier seasons. If you projected his at bats to a full time role (aka 600 ABs) you get something like 23-24 home runs for most of his earlier years. Add in Toronto being a ballpark that suits his swing and you then add 5-10 to that.
by Arakasi on Jul 28, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ah fake production with statistical analysis the best kind.
People tend to forgot that players tend to slow down near the end of the season with their power numbers due to fatigue.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
The point is.
He’s always had good ISO numbers. Him having power is not a fluke.
Him having 40 home run power is though.
But I don’t see why he can’t do 25-30 consistently.
what are you talking about?
i have NO idea where you’re getting these projections. even ignoring fatigue (which you of course can’t do in real life, but whatever):
2006 – 600 PA projected = 20 HR
2007 – 614 PA real = 15 HR
2008 – 600 PA projected = 21 HR (but that is VERY iffy because he had ~360 PA in PIT and only ~60 in TOR)
2009 – 600 PA projected – 21 HR
2010 – 600 PA projected – 38 HR
20-25 HR a year on average? makes sense if he plays every day. But he’s not going to hit 30 a year. his ISOs have been in the .170 range (bad) until this year’s .327 (insane)
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Uhh.
.170 ISO is hardly bad at all. That’s actually solidly above average. Especially for someone with his walk rate.
The point still stands. 20ish home runs in Pittsburgh is about 25 out in Toronto, which is much better for home runs, especially for players who hit them to left field. I said he can consistently hit 25-30. Nothing of what you said contradicts that at all.
According to FanGraphs
good IsoP is greater than .290, average IsoP is between .210 and .290, and bad IsoP is less than .210. The league average is ~.275.
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You're just flat out wrong.
Go look here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2010&month=0
2 players in all of baseball have an ISO greater then .290. That is Bautista and Cabrera.
There are 38 batters in all of baseball with an ISO between .210 and .290.
The league average is way lower than .275.
I don’t know where you’re getting your numbers from, but they’re wrong.
fangraphs, i said in the title
but apparently they’re incorrect, fair enough. I still don’t think JoBau has the capability of hitting 30 HR a season, looking at projections (which are inaccurate in either direction, but generally lower because of fatigue) and even adjusting for park factor (PNC being tougher on LHB, as you noted) I’m still only seeing about 25 HR/season as an everyday player. so I can see that, but I still think 30 HR is a stretch.
And besides (not just to change the subject) there’s also the issue that while Bautista’s defensive versatility is certainly an asset, he’s actually below average according to defensive metrics at both RF and 3B, so some of the issue (particularly in PIT without the DH) could perhaps be attributed to him not having the opportunity because of poor defense. but that’s just a theory, you’ve proven your point
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I agree on some points.
For example on the EE thing with comparison to Bautista. I think JBau has a much better arm then EE, but I think it’s been shown that EE has a much better range then Bautista and he gets to many balls that Jose would never get to. But once he gets to it, he often throws it away or flubs it some other way. Then again sometimes EE makes a standout play. If we could only combine the two somehow.
Bautista is definitely a better OF then he is a 3B, and that is where he should play. However then you have Wells, Lewis and Snider and it’s hard to figure out how to sit Lewis or Wells consistently in favor of him.
Personally I think Snider needs to play every day. Bautista at this moment should play every day. Which really leaves Lewis screwed, since Wells will get the nod over him. Hence I’d think if they let EE go then JBau at 3rd 4 days a week, in the OF two days and then one day off or something is probably the best we can look at. Or add one game in there at 1b or something if Wallace next year isn’t playing fulltime there.
That is really Bautista’s big strength. He can play 4 positions (both corner OFs, 1B and 3B)
I think he should pitch.
Would boost his value more
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
Wouldn't be surprised
If he could hit 95 or so on the radar gun. The guy does have a cannon for an arm.
he should throw
from CF… could probably throw more strikes than Gregg (zing)
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If the league average ISO was .275
The average batter in the majors would be hitting 25+ home runs.
actually I googled ‘average IsoP’ and found that sentence. should’ve checked my sources ;)
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(sentence started with ’accoring to fangraphs)
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If the league average IsoP were .275, then the average batter would be hiting 35+ home runs.
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by Frederick0220 on Jul 28, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
that is so unbelievably off, boo
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Jul 28, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, i know
… arakasi already said that, and i noted it.
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That's weird, though, that FanGraphs would say that.
Do you have the link…
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Jul 28, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
The average IsoP for a full-time Major League player is about .165.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Jul 28, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Lumping in bench warmers and shit, it's about .150.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Jul 28, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
i didn't get it directly off fangraphs
i got it from this random site, which (obviously wrongly) quoted fangraphs: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/wiki/index.php/IsoP
protip: check your sources
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maybe he wrote .290/.210/.275 as a typo
it should be .190/.110./.175, which makes sense (seems to me power is down all across baseball, so it’s slightly lower this year – purely anecdotal)
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And yet again:
He’s got value, all I was pointing out by the numbers is that he has not HIT as consistently as some people were implying.
I am taking about consistency, yes he still walked but you conveniently ignored my point and went back to his power numbers.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
I don't see why being inconsistent is a downer
Would you reject Tiexera even though pre late May/early June he always sucks? How about Justin Mourneau, whose second half numbers are always consistently worse then his first half numbers? There are tons of players out there who have huge splits, or make up lots of their numbers on hot streaks.
Numbers are numbers, and I have not read any analysis that shows that playing closer to your season average all the time is more valuable then having bigger ups and downs. It’s of course nice to not have a black hole in the lineup for a week or two, but that’s balanced out by having a couple weeks where a player just singlehandedly wins multiple games for the team.
in general, players'
second half numbers are worse. injuries, general wear and tear, fatigue all play a significant factor.
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Not seen any proof for that
This was an interesting link:
Also any breakdown in hitters is also going to be balanced by a breakdown in pitchers. Also it is well known that September is a good time for mop up stats, where AAA players get a lot more playing time and many a bad team or player has crushed the month.
I'm sure there is similar numbers for most power hitters.
Guys who hit 50 HR’s rarely hit exactly 8 per month…plus it doesn’t really matter to me when they are hit.
by craig in calgary on Jul 28, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Has anyone thought...
that maybe he’s actually finally tapping into his skills? He’s never had much stability but now that he knows toronto and is comfortable here, he’s crushing the ball.
I don’t see why there’s any reason to trade him. Imagine if Lind and Hill pick it up again?
by dchoubak on Jul 28, 2010 2:36 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Imagine if we traded Overbay for Cabrera and Brad Mills for Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez.
Onions Baby Onions
Nice article on Bautista
“Slugger Bautista is feeling at home in Toronto”
I don’t want to see Bautista go – he’s found a good place to play and he’s doing a great job for us.
Jose is basically Adam Dunn...
Hes nowhere near as proven, but he can play multiple positions and has a better contract situation.
Whatever Dunn gets back will determine what sort of return anyone could expect for Jose.
Onions Baby Onions
however
Bautista can play defence where Dunn is a liability in the field.
but you hit the nail on the head with
“nowhere near as proven” – Dunn’s career OPS+ is 133, Jose’s is 101. Dunn’s hit 339 career bombs, Jose’s hit 89. and yes, Jose’s a lot better in the field than Dunn, but he’s not exactly a superstud (while he’s a lot of fun to watch). is Jose gonna keep up 154? hopefully (if he stays), but unlikely (though it is certainly possible that his newfound success is based on a fundamental change in some part of his hitting). Dunn is a proven masher, and while he sucks in the field, he’s really not similar to all to Jose in career production.
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fair enough
but there are a lot more moving parts in Bautista than in Dunn, was my main point
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I may just be speaking out of my ass here, but I’m pretty sure no GM round the league is willing to part with a top 50 prospect for Bautista at this time. Otherwise a deal would have probably already happened. And frankly, I wouldn’t settle for anything less so might as well keep him. Not only is there value in his bat, arm and versatility but I think the most value comes from the contract hes set up on. This year 2.5M bought us what looks to be a 40HR 100 RBI strong defensive player this season. Next year his arbitratrion will probably jump his salary to 6-7M and even if he doesnt repeat his performance this year I still think you could expect a 20HR 75RBI season next year and if you add in his positive affect in the clubhouse, he’s still worth it. Toronto only has 39M committed to next season in contracts anyways so we dont need to pinch pennies right now. Really everyone should calm down, cause no matter what happens it’s a win scenario. We trade him hopefully pick up a good OF prospect with high ceiling, or keep a solid inexpensive player.
Just saw the new Sportsnet Jose homerun king commercial...
This man is going nowhere, chicks dig the longball..bring on the crowds.
Posted this elsewhere too, but would ppl be willing with a Jbau & Downs for Joba, Gardner & prospect(s)? i think it fits our needs/plans pretty well…
I don't like that deal at all, personally
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by hugo on Jul 29, 2010 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also...
If Keith Law, Stoeten, and Mike Wilner have all decided he should be traded.. I say lock him up for 5 years. I live a healthy lifestyle and wouldn’t take dietary advice from morbidly obese people either.
by ABsteve on Jul 28, 2010 8:52 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I think AA will keep him and try to get him to sign a relatively cheap extension.
Seems as though AA is about high risk, high reward. There is a chance that Bautista doesn’t hit 30-40 HR’s a year, but if he does and you can get him for 6-7 million a year, isn’t that a no-brainer? It’s a risk I think AA is willing to take.
He also walks a lot, plays good defense, is versatile, and is good with the young hispanic players that are here (Escobar) or could come up (Hechavarria). Those are all things that won’t go away, even if the slugging declines.
I heard AA say before that he tries to get guys that you can’t get via free agency or trades. A guy that has an OPS of .950, hits 30-40 HR and plays good defense is hard to come by.
I don’t get why a lot of fans and the media want to trade this guy. He doesn’t bring back a Halladay-type package. He probably won’t even haul in a top 10 prospect. Prospects, particularly those outside of the top ranking ones, are full of risk, as is Bautista. But at least Bautista has shown that he could do it (and in midseason), and he’s also shown that he can be relatively useful by doing several things well even he doesn’t hit home runs ever 10 at bat.
by REMO on Jul 31, 2010 11:20 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
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