You Can't Break My Government Heart: Quick Jays' Update
by hugo on Aug 11, 2010 9:35 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays News
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PrintFlying back to D.C. today so I'll make this quick.
- John Buck caught a pain free bullpen session. Buck is eligible to come off the disabled list in 9 days.
- Yunel Escobar, who missed yesterday's game with a sore knee he hurt while sliding, is day-to-day and could be back in the lineup as soon as today, though that's by no means certain.
- Vernon Wells' x-ray revealed no fracture or ligament damage and he is day-to-day as well. Wells is hopeful he can return tonight and has said he can already run "faster than Jose Molina."
- Brett Cecil, who was set to start Thursday, has been moved back to Saturday. Cecil cut his knee climbing stairs at Skydome. It required three stitches but is not serious. Brad Mills will start tomorrow and then be optioned to AAA, with Marc Rzepczynski coming up to make Friday's start and Cecil going on Saturday in Anaheim.
- Cito musing a 2011 return to the manager's box?
- Today's title from the great song "My Government Heart" by Vancouver's own Said the Whale. Flight's boarding. Cheers!
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Cito...just walk away
let someone come in and develop this team.
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
Wells should take as much time as he wants for his injury. Don’t want things to linger like it does for him sometimes.
Also, it’s not like he’s needed. Wise or Lewis are fine at CF. Gives more time for Snider to play.
nice article
I really like this quote from AA: “We looked at the free agent classes for the next couple of years and there was something like only three or four center fielders but first-base/DH types there were about 20,” Anthopoulos said. “Those guys don’t become available.”
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Ya, gives you some insight as to why they made that trade now.
by Jesse Taylor on Aug 11, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
That was really the deal with that deal all along
This just reassures me that he did his homework and knew exactly what he was doing, not just acting on a mancrush.
agreed
he seems to think the risk is much lower than the potential reward
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I sure hope Escobar is good to go
The Jays’ record is abysmal when Johnny Mac plays.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Another wasted season
To say I am frustrated is an understatement. This season is the same as last season. Don’t get me started on that TB game with Gregg being left in for 5 walks. Just last night:
1- Why was Hill batting clean up?
2 – Why was Downs hooked in the 8th when he was sailing along?
3 – Why are EE and Overbay in the lineup every day even though neither will be with the team next season?
4 – Why is Lind not getting a regular tryout at 1B?
5 – Why is Snider batting all over in the lineup with no guarantees he is even playing every day?
It will be too much for me if somehow Cito is again the manager next season. Last season, and especially this season, this team could have been a serious wild card contender with a manager with only half a brain.
Why not next?
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
I think he means
that at the start of this season, our expectations were that we had a few more years of rebuilding. I think this year has been a success and we’ve gained a lot of excellent pieces for the future (short term and long term).
Wild-card next year is a definite potential.
let me try to answer your questions
as devil’s advocate-ly as possible.
1-why does it matter? first off, he’s been hitting very well lately (creeping his way up to 100 OPS+), and second, we all know the lineup makes no discernable difference, right?
2- it was based on previous numbers against Lowell, I believe
3- What are you planning on doing with EE? I think he’d be a nice fit at DH (his numbers are quite solid – OPS+ 110), with Lind at first, JoBau at third. as for Overbay, winning is much more fun than losing no matter the circumstances, and Overbay’s defense is too good to leave out
4- all the Jays brass are saying he’s taking tons of fielding practice at 1B, but refer to the above comment for why Overbay’s still playing
5- because the lineup doesn’t matter, he’s proven he can hit no matter where in the lineup he is. we also have a surplus of solid players in the outfield. trust me, it’s a good thing
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Lineups do matter
Lind had a monster season last season, but do you remember what happened when they tried him in the 4 hole? It was ugly.
no, they don't
not in the grand scheme of things, at least. if you compare a completely random lineup to the least optimal possible lineup (worst hitters at the top, best at the bottom) the difference over the course of an entire season would only be a few runs. that counts as not mattering in my books.
and last year, Lind put up an 84 OPS+ in 17 plate appearances. that is absolutely not enough data nor a big enough gap to make any definitive statements about the lineup. though, to your credit, he did say that he didn’t feel comfortable in the cleanup spot, so it’s possible that on an individual level it could have an effect. overall, though, there definitely isn’t
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Last season, and especially this season, this team could have been a serious wild card contender with a manager with only half a brain.
I hope this is a joke. The reason the Jays aren’t a contender is that on a player by player basis, New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay all are stronger and more talented ballclubs. There’s right now a gap of about 10-15 wins between Toronto and those three clubs in our division, and even the very best managers can’t influence that many wins.
I should also point out that most baseball analysts and experts fully expected the Jays with their level of talent to finish last, behind even Baltimore. A goodly percentage of them speculated that a hundred losses was not out of the realm of possibility for this ballclub. The fact that the Jays are still on the outside fringes of the wild card race is a huge surprise. All this under the manager with ‘only half a brain’.
by dexfarkin on Aug 11, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is no joke
TB lost today, which puts us 9 back. I mentioned that Gregg 5 walk game against TB. If we win that – which we should have – that’s a swing of 2 games, and puts us 7 back now. That’s not even counting at least 10 other games when you thought you were in the Twilight Zone watching Cito make decisions.
please don't assume it's only Gregg's fault
as amazing as Snakeface is, he’s not going to give up 0 runs for the rest of his career. Gregg’s been pretty solid for the majority of the year, give him some credit.
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First of all, you’re assuming that by changing the decisions via another manager, a positive result would have occured most of the time, which is far from assured. Secondly, you’re also discounting the positives that have been outliers this year with the team. Cito’s not here and maybe Buck, Gonzelaz and Bautista have their career average years, which knocks 40 HRs off our totals and converts a bunch of wins into loses.
Playing ‘what if’ is fine, but there’s no objective evidence support it as fact. We don’t know how another manager other than Gaston positively and negatively effects the club, and to say that this is a playoff bound team without him flies in the face of an awful lot of people who have a lot more time, experience, and insider knowledge of baseball than you or I.
First of all, you’re assuming that by changing the decisions via another manager, a positive result would have occured most of the time, which is far from assured. Secondly, you’re also discounting the positives that have been outliers this year with the team. Cito’s not here and maybe Buck, Gonzelaz and Bautista have their career average years, which knocks 40 HRs off our totals and converts a bunch of wins into loses.
Playing ‘what if’ is fine, but there’s no objective evidence support it as fact. We don’t know how another manager other than Gaston positively and negatively effects the club, and to say that this is a playoff bound team without him flies in the face of an awful lot of people who have a lot more time, experience, and insider knowledge of baseball than you or I.
Very well said. Cito isn’t perfect, but his style is such that he has patience with certain guys and trusts his guys. The bench hardly plays either, but that’s why they’re on the bench.
I think Cito’s greatest strength is also his greatest weakness at times, and that’s his propensity to ride out plays he believes in. He doesn;t push the panic button, and I believe that gives confidence in his players.
I also have NO issues whatsoever with the way he handles his pitching staff. The odd time he’ll leave a reliever in on gut feel, but more often he plays the percentages and doesn’t take out his starter too soon.
If Cito comes back it’s not bad thing in my book. Depending on who the alternative is, it could be a moderate positive.
Why are we arguing this?
I think from Cito’s Clarification statement he is trying to retire, and with as little fanfare as possible.
I have to disagree on the pitching staff comment
His practice of leaving tired starters in 1 extra inning, letting them give up a hit or a walk and then bringing in the pen is infuriating.
Onions Baby Onions
I actually kind of like that part with the young rotation in a go nowhere year. Get them used to handling how to get out of jams on their own, see who can and who are guys who can go deep, and see which guys you do need to pull quicker. In the long term, it will allow them to use the bullpen more effectively.
I agree with dex (can I call you dex). As much as we say it, and as much as we don’t believe it, this season isn’t about winning. It is about learning to win. Coddleing (sp?) our pitchers will not help down the road. Having a pitcher getting roughed up in the 7th, and attempting to get out of it will teach him more than getting yanked after a couple bad pitches. Yes, their stat lines aren’t going to be as nice, and Fantasy Teams will suffer for it, but in the long run, a loss here or there now will produce multiple wins down the road.
Look at it this way. Sunday, Morrow gives up that hit. If we are trying to win now, every statistical analysis says pull him and let a reliever finish the game (if you want proof, go to Fangraphs and see the %^&^storm that Morrow finishing the game caused). However, by Cito leaving him in there, win or loss, Morrow will be a better pitcher for it. He is now more experienced in ultra high pressure situations, more confident in his ability to dominate, and, hey, that much more used to the fame that comes with being a dominant pitcher.
If we were trying to win, and Cito opted to pull him in the 9th, Morrow would have lost out on such an amazing opportunity. Heck, if Morrow had proceded to give up a 3 Run Homer to Johnson, I would still applaud Cito for sticking with him.
There She Gooooooes!
I don't disagree either
the only wild card was the high number of pitches he had thrown. Tired pitchers are pitchers who get hurt. But this was a special case and so I had no problem with Cito leaving Morrow in after the hit.
BTW, leaving Morrow in had nothing to do with the Fangraphs WPA graph for the game – WPA is independent of who is pitching and who is hitting.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
If Cito comes back it’s not bad thing in my book. Depending on who the alternative is, it could be a moderate positive.
I think Cito coming back would be a bad thing for the ball club. My point is more that saying without him this is a playoff team is nothing but unsupported opinion.
Cito coming back is neutral is far as I'm concerned
We could do better but we could do worse. At least we can count on Cito to hold the clubhouse together and is experienced and has won in the playoffs.
I think Cito himself said it best; the club needs a guy who’s going to be expected to be there for the next 3-4 years, developing all the young talent and the key pieces AA targets into a single unit. Another year would just be a placeholder, and I don’t think it would serve the organization, the players, or Gaston well.
I have my problems with Cito
But this is overreacting. We’re not a wild card contender yet. I do agree that Snider does need to play every day and I would prefer if he was given a stable place in the lineup, since right now arguably he is our second best hitter.
Wells and Escobar both in lineup tonight
Snider LF
Escobar SS
Bautista RF
Wells CF
Lind DH
Hill 2B
Overbay 1B
Encarnacion 3B
Arencibia C
Lewis seems to be the odd man out more and more
Agreed there
Can anyone even guess as to why Cito would do it this way and not the other? The only thing I can think of is Escobar is the only Jay (aside from MacDonald) who will lay down a bunt and Cito wants his number two guy able to do that? I dunno, I can’t think of any reason why it wouldn’t be Escobar then Snider
I think I remember reading that Escobar isn’t comfortable leading off and that he’s never really done it. I may be making that up though.
Escobar batting 2nd makes a lot of sense. I like his make up suits batting 2nd. I think Snider is there to bring in the 7-9 guys later in the game. As it has been Overbay and EE have been pretty consistant getting on base (JPA is still a wildcard), and Snider is a pseudo cleanup man up at the top.
There She Gooooooes!
Yeah that does make some sense
Its nice to have a guy be able to bring guys at the bottom of the order in… especially when Overbay and EE are on their game.
Hopefully Cebia is a bit better at the plate today.
Onions Baby Onions
although at the end of the day
Snider is a power hitter. Hes a guy i’d want batting cleanup or 5th eventually.
Onions Baby Onions
Snider’s also surprisingly fast for his size and has extra-base power. Escobar doesn’t strike out a lot, so he can push Snider up. Considering the rest of the lineup, I’m fine with Snider leading off the first and then getting the most at-bats in the game.
At the Top of the Order...
… it is generally agreed that you want an OBP guys. Since his injury, Sniders is batting at:
BA .321 OBP .387 OPS. 1.030
Those are stats I’m not gonna complain about at the top of the lineup
There She Gooooooes!
You wouldn't have batted Bonds leadoff
even the season his OBP was over .500.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
The season?
More like multiple seasons. The one he had over .600 though, now that was crazy.
even though
it was the optimal place to put him? Baseball Between the Numbers says the most efficient place to put your best hitters is top of the lineup, regardless of ‘place-setters.’ that said, your best hitters probably have the highest OBPs anyway, so it shouldn’t make a huge difference
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