I'll Show You How Smart I Am

by hugo on Aug 13, 2010 4:40 PM EDT in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis

I hate to interrupt the stirring debate in the comments regarding Jesse Litsch's weight </sarcasm>, but I thought this was a very interesting article over in fangraphs:

The Toronto Blue Jays have had a fun year for a team many picked to be among the worst in baseball before the season started — a short burst of pseudo-contention to start the season, tons of home runs, and they are still above .500. However, given where the team is at in the "success cycle," most assumed that before the deadline they’d trade away some of their veteran relievers who will be free agents after the season: Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, and Kevin Gregg (the Jays hold a club option on Gregg). Surprisingly, all three relievers are still with the team. Jayson Stark reports that Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos decided that relative the offers they were getting for these pitchers, Toronto would be better off offering the relievers arbitration (which Anthopolous is confident they’ll turn down) and getting compensation draft picks in return.

Gregg has done a nice job this season and I wouldn't be shocked if the Jays pick up that option. If they don't, I don't see them offering arbitration as Gregg is likely to accept. Downs and Frasor are likely gone though. Back to Klassen over at Fangraphs:

In the cited article, Anthopolous sounds confident that the relievers would turn down arbitration if it was offered to them, thus netting the Jays compensation picks if they were signed by another team. Assuming that the Jays would have made a fair trade for both sides, and the players will turn down arbitration, is Anthopolous right that the draft picks are likely to be worth more than the prospects in return? My seven longtime readers will know I’m about to refer to Victor Wang’s research on the trade value of prospects and draft pick compensation as summarize by (SB Nation's own!) Sky Kalkman. The average surplus value of Type A compensation picks (meaning this takes into account the average of all the players who "made it" and "busted") is around six million dollars. The average value for Type B picks is about three million dollars. How does that compare to what the relievers would have brought back in a fair trade?*

I won't tell you what the article concludes, as you should go over and read the whole thing. But for those who are fans of our General Manager, you won't be surprised at Fangraphs' conclusions. Anyway, what say you all? We know teams were interested. Assuming a fair return for JaKevSco Dosoregg, did AA make the right move? And what would you have to have gotten in return to pull the trigger on Frasor, Downs, or Gregg?

Title from Randy Newman's great mini-song "Memo For My Son," off Sail Away.

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Alvarez slipping

Clearly Henderson Alvarez starts had been less then stellar as late, but I did not realize he has a been this bad since April.

This is from the not so hot section of Baseball America.

Kyle Drabek on the other hand made the list as he has been blistering in his last 6 starts

• Henderson Alvarez, rhp, Blue Jays: Alvarez, 20, earned a Futures Game berth, largely on the strength of his repertoire and a 3-0, 0.37 start in April. He hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.50 since April, though, and he’s given up a ton of hits—135 in 109 innings overall and 21 in 13 innings last week. More troubling—zero strikeouts in his last two outings. He’s just 8-7, 4.38 overall, with opponents batting .303.

by willie stargell on Aug 13, 2010 5:06 PM EDT reply actions

Before I read it, I would say that AA did the right thing and hold out for picks. I rather take a chance on something big and get some overslot prospects with those picks than get a mediocre prospect. Even if the “A” comp pick 1st rounder falls back into the 2nd or third round due to circumstances it isn’t a big deal because we are overslotting.

by Joey P on Aug 13, 2010 5:07 PM EDT reply actions

I'm glad that AA didn't trade'em for almost nothing

Unlike say the Astros for example.

Yes, getting Jesus Montero or Casey Kelly was a pipe dream, but Downs/Gregg/Fraiser are certainly worth more than a barely marginal prospect or two.

I liked what they said (but I’m biased.)

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Aug 13, 2010 5:07 PM EDT reply actions

Assuming a fair return for JaKevSco Dosoregg, did AA make the right move? And what would you have to have gotten in return to pull the trigger on Frasor, Downs, or Gregg?

I’m honestly surprised that at least one didn’t get moved, but I don’t fault the reasoning. The rumour is that a couple of GMs essentially tried to pull the ‘this is all you’re going to get so you’d better take it’ tactic with him, and AA walked away. Mind you, that is unsubstantiated internet rumour, so grain of salt and all that.

I would have tried to nab Zack Wheeler or Jose Casilla from the Giants, or Migual Sano or Billy Bullock from the Twins.

by dexfarkin on Aug 13, 2010 5:08 PM EDT reply actions

Can't they still be traded before the end of the season?

by JayLo Biafra on Aug 13, 2010 5:10 PM EDT reply actions

only if they passed through waivers

which essentially means, no

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 13, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Only if they've cleared waivers

Apparently KG was on waivers but was claimed and pulled back.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Aug 13, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Question

Is it a guarantee that Downs/Frasor would decline arbitration?

Is this because they both could get more on the open market? I have no problem if Downs is wearing a Jays uniform again next season

by Rhinos on Aug 13, 2010 5:10 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think it's a guarantee, just highly likely

They might be looking for somewhere to go and be the closer, somewhere not the AL East.

Ball.

by Casusby on Aug 13, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

no, I think either could accept arbitration

but that would be a fine result in both cases, imo.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 13, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

I would rather have either one at the increased salary that arbitration will bring then see them handed over for nothing that will help this team in the future.

Someone will need to be doing the relief pitching for the Jays in 2011 and while I would like some of the prospects to get a shot I also wouldn’t want a full rookie bullpen.

by IanJ on Aug 13, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Would someone leave money on the table to test the FA market if they thought they could be a closer and sign for less? I have a feeling Frasor and Downs could be case examples.

by Joey P on Aug 13, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Yup

It’s unlikely, but seeing Gregg/Frasor/Downs back in the bullpen in 2011 would in no way be a negative. We’ve got the financial flexibility to carry them even with raises.

by dexfarkin on Aug 13, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I see Downs wearing

pinstripes next year….The Yankees wanted him and could use him badly. I think they’re going to offer him some good money and he’l take it. I also have no problem keeping him around. I’ve always liked him, he’s been a good Jay.

Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?

by T.Dot_Bronco on Aug 13, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions

SCOUTS

jays put alot of money into scouts so i think it’s the right move.We have so much pitching coming up it’s right to draft high school kids and take your chance

by anthony bell on Aug 13, 2010 7:02 PM EDT reply actions

Got asked if Alex made a mistake not trading Downs and Frasor

And gave pretty much the same answer. Alex was only going to trade if he was going to get something back he was pretty sure would help the major league team.

by Tom Dakers on Aug 13, 2010 7:32 PM EDT reply actions

Are you on a working vacation?

by IanJ on Aug 13, 2010 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions

It is almost game time, even vacation’s need vacations :)

by Joey P on Aug 13, 2010 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions

oh baseball isn't what i need a holiday from

But I do need time during it to write a nasty letter to rogers

by Tom Dakers on Aug 13, 2010 8:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Not to your cable provider for not making it available to you?

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Aug 14, 2010 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions

rogers gets it first

Like they need another channel to show poker on, they have 4 now. They just want more money.

by Tom Dakers on Aug 14, 2010 10:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

They have 4 regional channels and depending on your provider you have access to one or more.

This channel is meant to be a national channel.

Im not denying they want more money but they are a corporation thats what they do.

But when TSN2 was released, I was pissed at Rogers for not picking it up until the last minute. Not TSN.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Aug 14, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Rogers should create 162 channels

one for each Jays’ game. Cha-ching!

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 14, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

downs and frasor

I can see a scenario where both accept arbitration. Down’s type A status will be difficult for other teams to accept, I can see do what Rafael Soriano did last year. I can Frasor do the same, he has had an off year and I don’t know if anyone would give him more than one year, if he can only get a one year deal, he would make the most money with the Jays. Relievers and compensation picks are iffy at best.

by daman316 on Aug 14, 2010 12:23 AM EDT reply actions

Frasor will be a Type B

no one’s giving up a pick to sign him. I don’t see him accepting arbitration, I think he’ll at least test the waters to see what’s out there. If he does accept, that’d be fine too.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Aug 14, 2010 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions