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Around SBN: Phil Mickelson Outshines Tiger Woods

The Jays of 2011

I've seen many posts about this and i thought id join in the fun :)

Star-divide

From most of the post's, ive seen like, Jose will have exactly 37 Hr's with a 243 average with exactly 103 rib's, not trying to discredit those people, i believe that saying that is probably incorrect, baseball is unpredictable, but i'd like to take a crack at this, these scenario's all are my opinion, and what i want to see next year, and i haven't included call ups or trades, more like from what we've seen this season who will be here next year

Lineups

Scenario

Jose stays with Jays

Fred Lewis stays

Trade Lyle for prospect

Edwin gets traded for Chase Headley

1 : Fred Lewis LF/DH /  Travis Snider LF/RF

2:  Yunel Escobar SS / Travis Snider LF/RF

3: Jose Bautisa 3B/LF/RF / Adam Lind 1B/DH

4: Adam Lind 1B/DH / Vernon Wells CF

5: Travis Snider LF/RF / Vernon Wells CF

6: Aaron Hill 2B

7: Vernon Wells CF 

8: JP Arencibia C / John Buck C

9: Trade for Chase Headley  3B

Projected Stats of Lineup

age was off the top of my head so correct my if im wrong

Fred Lewis, 31 : close to 300 ab's, with a lot of doubles and runs

Yunel Escobar, 29 : plays almost every game and has a 20 hr's 70-80 rbi's with a 300 average

Jose Bautisa 31 : A shocker to most people, a huge decline in production and average, above 200 average with 15-20 Hr's and 80 rbi's, I believe this will happen for the same reason that Lind has struggled this year, Pitchers are not currently adjusting to Bautisa but next year they will which means a ton of strikeouts with low production (compared to last year)

Adam Lind, 28 : I strongly believe that Adam will become the clean up hitter next year, even though he said he doesnt enjoy the spot, i think the new manager will plug him in and see what hes got Linds got to suck it up and play the cleanup, he will be 28 and closing in to his prime, get him comfortable with this spot and hopefully see improvement from last year. my prediciton is a +270 average with 30 + Hr's and + 100 rbi's,  Possible DH silver slugger

Travis Snider, 23 : I think Lunch box will have a breakout year with a high average and 20-25 hr's and 60 + rbis

Aaron HIl, 29l : not a huge aaron hill fan right here, I dont really think his struggles this year has anything to do with injuries or pitcher adjustments, doesn't have huge power, but still hits it out a lot , prediction 250+ average -20 hr's and -70 rbi's however a great fielding year and wins 2B goldglove

Vernon Wells, 33 : First Thought is age, he's not 20 something anymore, will he be able to handle CF? Yes he will, looking at this current season, he is really doing a fine job in Center making amazing plays here and there, maybe a little degression of ability but still a fine year, 300 average with 25+ Hr's and 60+ rbis' optimisism

JP and buck, 25, 31 respectively: Im putting these together because i believe they will share the bulk of the load next year, I think Jp will play a portion of the games but not that many, maybe 50 - 55 games, you know just getting comfortable with the pitchers and batting, buck will continue to impress the jays with the bat and improve on fielding, JP 200+ average with 5 hr's and 25 + rbis' John buck 250 average with 15 + hr's and 50 + rbis'

3B, ??: im leaving this one blank because i really dont know about this one.

 

Now onto pitchers, excluding bullpen, but if you'd like to add in comments, its gladly aprreciated

Ace : Shaun Marcum

2nd: Ricky Romero

3rd : Brandon Morrow

4th:  Brett Cecil

5th : Kyle Drabek/ Jesse Litch/ Zach Stewart / Mark Z

I dont belive the Jays will target any starting pitchers this offseason due to prospects and overload of draft picks being Pitchers

 

Predictions of Starters

Shaun Marcum, 30 : What a season he's having eh? in 2011 i believe that Shaun will have another outstanding year barring injuries. 15-17 wins, 200 + IP, close to 150 strikeouts with a era below 3

Ricky Romero, 27 : I think ricky will have a good year, but not great, after getting that huge contract, he may have a Adam Lind season, prediction, 10-15 wins, 150 + ip, 100+ strikeouts with a era above 3

Brandon Morrow, 27: I predict an amazing season from young Brandon, He's going to get tons of strikeouts and tons of wins, 15-20 wins, 150-200 IP, 200 strikeouts with a Era below 4

Brett Ceci, 25l : i dont think he will have a great season, maybe a sophmore slump of somesorts, however he is still young, 100 + ip (shut down at end of season), -10 wins, -100 strikeouts, era below 4

Kyle Drabek, 24: I think he will come up at some time next season, he may start with the big club or wait till September Call ups, he may have up to 15 starts with 5 wins, up to 70 strikeouts less than 100 IP and 4+ era

 

I also think the jays will finish above 500 with a 90-72 record, just missing out on the playoffs

Please comment below on your thoughts or concerns

2nd all time post

If you want my to blog about anything then put it in the comment box

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Hrm

Not bad…

I doubt that Vernon has a 300 avg. He is just to streaky, and he’ll have at least one bad month somewhere that will destroy his average.

I really do think Buck is gone. He’s gonna get a big contract somewhere, and the Jays will gladly take the Comp Pick. Molina will stay.

I also don’t think Drebek will be rushed at all. I see him being at least 2012 before we see him more than the odd spot start (barring injuries of course). I like Zep for the 5th spot next season.

There She Gooooooes!

by Rugged Rock on Aug 24, 2010 4:27 PM EDT reply actions  

So you dont think Drebek will be with the big club all year next year?

For the V-dub 300 average, i meant more of a higher than 2009 average
and also do you think that Jp will start at catcher next year?

by Andr K on Aug 24, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see Drabek as a call up next Sept and a rotation option for 2012.

Im sure he will be in the running for the 5th spot in the rotation to start 2011 and maybe he will win out but I have a gut feeling the Jays are goign to let things take their time.

If course if he comes out firing in Spring training all bets are off.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Aug 24, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

My guess on Drabek is that he gets called up mid-season to coincide with service time, etc.

I don’t think Buck will be back.
I think Wells’ .300 seasons are over, but I think he can man CF for another few seasons.
I don’t think Hill is among the best defensive 2B in the league. To me, more like 2nd tier, so no gold glove.
A Lind bounce-back is def possible.
I expect more from Snider, but then again I have for a while now.
I expect a drop off from Bautista, but not huge. I hit he can hit 30 HR’s and have a .350 OBP.
I’m excited to see what Escobar will do next year.
I think Lewis might be odd man out (i.e. 4th OF), as they could land a relatively inexpensive DH or 1B, and keep EE at 3rd for his final season as a Jay.

Who knows though. Even AA doesn’t know at this point.

by REMO on Aug 24, 2010 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dont think AA or Butters (probable manager) will look at Drabek as a MLB starter in April 2011

by vann0308 on Sep 4, 2010 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Couple of things

Buck doesn’t want to platoon he wants to start but that probably won’t be here.
Drabek won’t be starting the season up here, from the way AA has talked about that possibility it sounds like he prefers for him to stay in the minors next season, “It’d be ideal to have the depth that we don’t need him up here” something like that. I’d love to see it but it sounds like AA doesn’t.
Couple of other ballsy predictions there too, Gold glove for Hill, Silver Slugger for Lind.

by T_Mizz on Aug 24, 2010 5:24 PM EDT reply actions  

C – JPA
1b – Lind (trade/release overbay)
2b – Hill
3b – Wallace or trade for vet if hes not ready (release EE)
SS – Yunel Escobar
Lf – snider
Cf – BW
Rf – JoBau
Dh – Buck

by vann0308 on Sep 4, 2010 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh and Buck can move behind the plate of JPA struggles

by vann0308 on Sep 4, 2010 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oops just remembered Wallace got traded ):

by vann0308 on Sep 4, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Drabek wont make the team out of ST. He will pitch all season at AAA and maybe be a Sept call up.

JPA is having a good year at LV but from watching him he still needs some work. Also I dont feel comfortable with him and our young pitchers. Just giving him the starting job is a bad move IMO. Not sure if Buck will say or not. Buck wants to start so maybe getting him for another year and then we can trade him at the deadline clearing the way for JPA. Molina must stay.

Lewis has had a good year for us but I think he is still a 4th OF type. I would like to see a better lead off guy. Someone with a higher OBP and a bit more speed.

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by syc on Aug 24, 2010 5:34 PM EDT reply actions  

A lot of people are calling for JPA to make the team next year which I kind of do see happening, but I don’t see him providing more value then Buck has this year.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Aug 24, 2010 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah I agree that JPA will be just as good as Buck. Plus with the other C prospects we have I dont see him being a part of the team unless he (instead of Lind) gets moves to 1B. But he can hold the fort down till Perez or Travis is ready.

He is perfect trade bait. I wouldn’t be mad if he got traded and we went with Buck and Molina for the next 2 years.

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by syc on Aug 24, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

get JPA in a bundle for Headley

To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!

by YunelTheLazyLatino on Aug 26, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Same. I want Molina here until he retires to catch Morrow

by vann0308 on Sep 4, 2010 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

For Wells 25+HR and only 60+Rbi? Those numbers don’t seem to mesh with me. I can see the 25ish HR (Personally I see 20-25 but I can see 25+ easily enough). I just think that RBI total will be higher then what you have indicated.

And Predicting trades can be a very tricky business.

And Lyle doesn’t look like he is going to be traded so odds are he just walks.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Aug 24, 2010 5:35 PM EDT reply actions  

yea maybe wells get’s more rbi’s

by Andr K on Aug 24, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Buck definitely won’t be back, the Jays are going to give the reigns to JPA to see how he fares, with Molina being the perfect inexpensive mentor back up catcher. Lyle and EE have 0 value in a trade, so Lyle + EE will be gone as an FA, alot of your projections are pretty optimistic. Your Marcum projection is laughable but the rest of the pitchers seem accurate, Marcum does not have the stuff to put up an era under 3 in the al east.

by Josh Winninger on Aug 24, 2010 7:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Nice thought though

But yes. Headley is the long-term solution at 3B for SD. Rightly or wrongly.

Gotta play 'em, might as well win 'em.

"You had to have the BIG salad."
"Suit up."
"Eric, when your mom says are you ready for your catheter...the answer is no."

by Jevant on Aug 25, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe it might take EE plus Scrabble (or even more) to get Headley. It depends on how much SD thinks he is their solution at 3rd.

by siggian on Aug 25, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

regardless of how much they think he is their solution

he’s a hell of a lot better of a solution than EE. Better hitter, younger, cheaper, and more years of team control. With their pitching staff, it would take a hell of a lot more than Zep to pry Headley away

by SuckaMD on Aug 25, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

how about

we let EE go,
ask Emaus, Rzep, and one of our minor league pitchers (Stewart?) for Headley and a Minor leaguer
is this good or bad?

To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!

by YunelTheLazyLatino on Aug 26, 2010 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

or

EE, JPA, and Rzep for Headley and a Minor Leaguer
bring Buck and Molina back for a year or two

To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!

by YunelTheLazyLatino on Aug 26, 2010 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly

That’s why there would be more to it than an EE for Headley swap. The Jays would have to add a prospect or two to the mix at a minimum. Scrabble might interest them because he seems very close to MLB ready and he’s already had a couple of cups with the big club. I can see that they might be more interested in a positional prospect but I’m not so sure that the Jays would want to give that up, given that they don’t have too much of a surplus right now. Pitching is what the Jays have a lot of now.

by siggian on Aug 26, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Padres Point of View

Let’s suppose we were in the Padres shoes. We finally got a long term solution at 3B and are finally becoming the best team in the NL. Why would we trade him away for EE plus prospects. Sure the prospects would be great (JPA and Scramble) but they will have to start all over to find another long term 3B solution because EE is definitely not it. Why would the Padres do this?

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by Schenn4captain on Sep 4, 2010 8:16 PM EDT reply actions  

EE, Emaus, JPA, and maybe one of Scrabble/Mills/Litsch for Headley

by vann0308 on Sep 4, 2010 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

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