I Don't Know. Third Base.
by Tom Dakers on Aug 29, 2010 6:00 PM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintI love the "Who's on First" routine by Abbott and Costello. I used to do it with a friend when we were in school. Since it wasn't so famous, back then, people think we were crazy, but we had fun.
Let's start by saying that I doubt many other managers would have this team over .500. I doubt any other managers would have Jose Bautista hitting 40+ (and maybe 50+) homers this season. I think Cito has done a terrific job with our pitchers. He's got a young starting staff and yet there hasn't been a major injury. I'm not sure how many managers would have stuck with Brandon Morrow the way he started the season and with the number of choices we have for starting pitchers. He deserves credit for all that and more.
All that said, his handling of Travis Snider is almost unforgivable. Getting Travis at bats should be a more important goal than winning at this moment, not that I think the two are mutually exclusive. And his stated plan of using John McDonald at third, during Edwin Encarnacion's injury, is just wrong.
I know Cito isn't a fan of Snider's play in the outfield. Nor a fan of Bautista's play at third, but come on. The offensive difference between Mac and Moonraker has to be great than the defensive issues.
Let's look at the various players in our little melodrama:
Jose Bautista: Hitting a wonderful .266/.383/.623 with 42 home runs. His defense at 3rd: UZR/150 of -19.3 this year. -10.5 UZR/150. So some worse than your average 3B. His UZR in RF -9.3. Below average again, that great arm is his best asset out there. The way he is hitting he could play anywhere for me.
John McDonald: Hitting .248/.269/.436 in limited at bats. If he would take the odd walk, you could live with it. Defense at 3rd: he hasn't played enough this year for his numbers to be of much value (-23.0 UZR/150 in 68 innings). Career at 3rd he is -6.1 UZR/150. Slightly below average. If fielding average interests you, his is .939 career at 3rd, roughly what EE's is this year. I really don't think it is a good position for him, his arm, to me, is a little lacking. If he could hit, I'd be fine with that defense.
Edwin Encarnacion: Just throwing him in for comparison sake. Hitting .246/.310/.446. Defense at 3rd this year: -4.3 UZR/150. Fielding percentage .935. His number were hurt by a very lousy start to the season. He was making an error a game early. Since he missed a lot of spring training, they didn't get time to work on hid defense as much as they would have liked, Butterfield has been working with him since and he's been not too bad at all.
Travis Snider: Hitting .246/.311/.450 this year. I personally think his numbers have been hurt because of not playing everyday, but that's an opinion. I'd think it would be harder to hit if you think you will be riding the bench if you aren't 4 for 4. On defense, he has spilt time between left and right field almost evenly and Cito is right, he has played much better in LF. I'd guess some is small sample size issues but -3.9 UZR/150 in LF and -31.3 UZR/150 in RF. Career he is -8.4 in left and -17.3 in right.
Fred Lewis: Hitting .265/.336/.429. This year in LF he has a -12.6 UZR/150. I like him well enough, just not near enough to sit Travis for though.
Personally, the way Bautista is hitting he can play any position for me, but I don't think he is much worse at 3B than RF. His glove might not be quite what Mac's would be at 3B but it wouldn't be that much worse. Travis should be playing everyday, even if it is right field. Nothing Mac or Lewis can do should be enough to get in the way of Travis' playing time.
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Same here. There is just too much power in his bat to ignore. If he ever lived up to his potential, he could do what Bautista did this year on offense. Defensively, he has made such an improvement that you can’t ignore it. His only problem is throwing mistakes lately. I like Emaus, but I think EE still has a higher upside. Please give him one more year because it will be at least one more season until we have to shuffle Hill and Escobar around to make room for Hechavarria. I don’t see how a year is going to hurt.
it's a good point
i think you’re vastly underestimating the unlikelihood (not-word alert) of Bautista’s season, but EE has proven power, and his defense certainly does seem to be better. it’s hard to his ignore his brutal errors, but overall he’s been nearly acceptable defensively. i still would like to see this lineup next year, though:
1B Lind
2B Hill
SS Yunel
3B Bautista
LF Snider
RF Wells
CF Crawford (winky face, but probably LF Lewis/RF ’Raker/CF Wells)
DH EE
Prehistoric Hoops - We're back! And we have a real domain!
Crawford would sweet...
But I don’t think the Jays would ever consider paying the pricetag for him when their OF still has a capable Wells (definitely slowing down though), Snider, and probably Bautista/Lewis…. then Gose ain the system.
Granted, Gose is still, what, three years away? And there’s no guarantee of him even making it… but I don’t know if this offseason will be the one where Rogers feels it’s time to open the chequebook to spend on FAs when the development of this team is progressing nicely and it still remains to be seen exactly where the “holes” are… although if you asked me, they’re 3B and bullpen.
Cito
may have his pluses but this is developmental year. i wouldn’t be surprised to see Snider go crazy next year when he’s allowed to just play ball.
Preaching to the choir here but yeah, Snider needs the ABs more than the team needs the Ws
Is Cito maybe trying to build up his legacy a bit by getting the team to finish with the best possible W-L record, regardless of long term development? If he was coming back next year he would want to take the time to develop Snider because he knows that he’s the best long term option. Well, Cito is retiring and he really has no vested interest in how good the team does next year and beyond. Maybe he just wants to get this team to win 90 games or so, that way he can say “look what I did with these guys who were expected to lose 100 games at the start of the year! I am so great!”
Agreed
Who cares if Bautista isn’t a prototypical 3B. This season isn’t about winning anymore, it is about developing. I don’t see the harm in having Bautista at 3B to make room for Snider and Lewis to both play. At least they will get bats, which is the most important thing for the Jays right now. And if they would rather use Bautista in RF, then I would rather see Snider and McCoy play over Lewis and Mac.
Emaus
I think the fact that Emaus wasn’t called up for a look says a lot about his chances of manning 3rd for the Jays in the near future. They chose to bring up McCoy, who doesn’t play 3rd. They also chose to bring up Hoffpauir earlier in the season (understandably, given his #‘s at the time). If they’re just going to play John McDonald at 3B, instead of EE, why not bring up Emaus. I believe he’s going to be 26, so it’s sort of a crucial time in his “career”.
I think the Jays are very pleased with how EE responded to being sent down in the middle of the year. Before that, his days with the Jays were numbered. However, he has shown a definite improvement on defense (applause for The Butterfield Effect!) and his offense has been adequate.
Given the farm’s weakness at third, there’s a very good chance that he will be back next year.
Fangraphs
has Encarnacion at 1.2 wins above replacement this season, mostly because of what they see as a defensive improvement. It’s a small sample size for defensive metrics but Defensive Runs Saved actually has Edwin as above average, suggesting that his value could actually be higher than UZR (and Fangraphs) calculate. Assuming 1.2 wins is correct, that’s not bad considering that Edwin only has about 300 plate appearances. A full season at the same levels would make him about a 2.5 win player, which would be well worth the salary he’s set to receive. While moving Bautista to third base might be the Jays’ best option for 2011, if they’re not prepared to do that Encarnacion would come on a 1-year deal and might not be a bad option.
One additional thing that would be nice is that if the Jays do reach a deal with him and someone like Emaus comes in and blows them away or the Jays manage to trade for an mlb-ready third baseman, the vast majority of Edwin’s salary wouldn’t be guaranteed. This happened with Reed Johnson a couple of years ago.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
no need?
he’s still got one more year of team control
Prehistoric Hoops - We're back! And we have a real domain!
might be under control
but i think he will be non-tendered, and then maybe they try to re-sign him ala the Reds with Gomes. anybody could have had EE back when he was sent to AAA. nobody did at his salary. if we don’t get him back, batista is always a good plan B. jmo
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