FanPost

Optimism!

Projected 2011 Jays x Fangraphs WAR

Player
'08 '09 '10 (150-game pace) WAR, '11 Salary, 3-year WAR average

Arencibia
*according to the minor league equivalency calculator, we can expect about .779 OPS based on JP's 2010 stats at AAA Las Vegas. I am, rather optimistically, ignoring his tepid 2009. With a .779 OPS at catcher, JP could be worth around 3 WAR. As a comparison, John Buck is on a 2.6 WAR-pace over 120 games. Let's say JP is a 2 WAR player in 2011.

Lind
0.0 3.5 -1.6, $5m, 0.6

Hill
0.6 3.9 0.5, $5m, 1.7

Bautista
0.4 1.9 5.4, arbitration eligible, 2.6

Escobar
3.3 4.3 2.3, arbitration eligible, 3.3

Lewis
2.2 0.8 2.1, arbritration eligible, 1.7

Wells
1.5 0.0 3.9, $23m, 1.8

Snider
0.3 0.0 1.2, ~$0.5m, 0.5

Rounding out the batters, let's say the DH provides 1.5 WAR (reasonable as they only provide value with the bat). Say you have two 1 WAR players off the bench, and the rest are replacement level (0 WAR). Molina has a surprising 1.2 WAR so far, and Wise is at 0.5 WAR (already!), so that's reasonable I think.

I'm just going to list this year's pitching WAR for now, at a 162-game pace...
Romero 5.0, Marcum 4.4, Morrow 3.8, Cecil 3.0, fifth starters combined 0.6, relievers combined 2.6 (let it be known that Brian Tallet is, so far, worth -1.2 WAR already.... wow).

0 WAR team wins = 50 (from FanGraphs)
Batters = 2.0+0.6+1.7+2.6+3.3+1.7+1.8+0.5+1.5+1.0+1.0 = 17.7
Pitchers = 5.0+4.4+3.8+3.0+0.6+2.6 = 19.4

Total = 50+17.7+19.4 = 87.1

That right there is reason for optimism. What's more, most of the Jays provide, at minimum, market-rate returns for their salaries (except Wells, duh, and maybe Adam Lind if he sucks again).

More reasons for optimism: Aaron Hill will probably accrue more than 1.7 WAR, and Lind will likely do better than 0.6 WAR (especially if he plays at 1st, where the positional adjustment is slightly more favorable than DH). It's also reasonable to expect Snider will break out with a 2-3 WAR season. Of course, the pitchers might not do as well as they have this year, but I think the other numbers are fairly reasonable.

Based on this, a competent fifth starter and a quality OF (not a DH, as Wells, Lewis, and Lind could rotate in that spot if a bat was acquired elsewhere) could put the Jays into the 90-win range. Playoffs!!!!1

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