Aaron Hill's Extension
by peterzm on Sep 1, 2010 5:31 PM EDT
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PrintAs Drew explains at Ghostrunner on first "Hills contract calls for $4 mil this year and $5 mil next. The next three years are club options; three of which can be activated at the end of this season with only two available at the end of 2011." (http://www.ghostrunneronfirst.com/2010/08/alex-anthopouloss-first-real-decision.html#comments) It seems that if the Jays want Hill at 8 mil, 8 mil and then 10 mil for three more years AA has to make the decision this off-season. Should AA activate Hill for three years or wait till after next year to decide on the two years remaining.
(for more discussion see http://www.drunkjaysfans.com/2010/08/on-aaron-hill.html#disqus_thread)
Hill has improved significantly since the all star break though his average is still down.
First Half:
.189/.272/.359/.631/.180/ (avg/obp/slg/ops/babip)
Second Half:
.256/.299/.481/.780/.244 (avg/obp/slg/ops/babip)
He's had 9 Hr in 156 Abs since the All star break.
I think even if his average remains down next year it will remain closer to the .250 mark, and though he doesn't get on base he has continued to hit home runs this year, and I think his second half numbers line-up pretty well against other second or third baseman.With a low OBP percentage I'd rather see him down in the order especially when struggling.
Should the Jays activate him for three years.
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clarification
It’s pertains to the three years following next year, not including next season. The 3 option years are 2012 – 8 mil, 2013 8 mil, 2014 10 mil. They have to decide before next season if they are going to activate all 3 option years.
his ops is 780
OPS accounts for walks as well as other factors, and 780 is pretty high for a second or third baseman.
An Ops of 780 would put him higher than Orlando Hudson for instance and 11/30 teams among second baseman with over 300 plate appearances.
It would also place him at 11/30 teams among 3rd baseman.
It’s possible that we could do better but overall it’s not a bad second half.
OPS overvalues slugging
it’s a decent quick stat but a little simplistic.
Hill’s best month, by far, has been August, in which he has put up a .337 wOBA. That would basically put him in the middle of the pack for second basemen or third basemen (I’m surprised there isn’t more of a difference in offensive production between the two positions but it seems like there are more third basemen having lousy seasons). Hill’s career wOBA is .329 by the way.
As Jevant says, Hill’s BABIP this season is very low, but a lot of that is self-inflicted. With a 10% line drive rate, you wouldn’t expect a BABIP of much more than the .201 that Hill is currently sporting. While you can’t expect Hill to repeat a 10% line drive rate given his career stats, it suggests at least one significant non-luck related correction that needs to be made.
On the plus side, Hill is still a solid defensive second baseman. If he performs to his career averages going forward, he won’t be a burden at those salaries, though perhaps not a bargain either. If his numbers are more like 2009, he’ll be a huge bargain and it’s a no brainer to pick up the option years.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
re: 2nd basemen vs. 3rd basemen
I think 2nd base is a very top-heavy position offensively. The top guys in the league rake but there is a big drop-off soon thereafter. Third base seems to be a little deeper in my opinion, but the best hitters aren’t necessarily as good as the best ones who play 2nd.
As an example, mean wOBA this season is .322 and there are 14 hitters who have better than .322 wOBAs, but only nine second basemen. If your cutoff point is .360 wOBA, the difference is much less severe . . . there are are six third basemen and five second basemen.
Not to mention that this is excluding a couple of the best-hitting second basemen in the league (Utley and Pedroia) who’ve been hurt this year.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
BABIP
Hill is getting pretty ridiculously unlucky as a whole this year, especially in the first half.
I was on the “trade Hill” bandwagon at the end of last season (to simply cash in on his highest value), but there’s no point in getting rid of him now. Keep him and hope he turns it around.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
You pick up the options. While this year has been brutal for Hill, his career numbers are good, he’s a solid defender, and moving forward, has the versitility to fill in holes at 2B or 3B depending on how our advancement goes. Hill’s contract is also hardly an anchor even if he under performs, and the upside is well worth the risk.
His defense seemed to have been iffy the past week or so.
by Minor Leaguer on Sep 2, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
This team loves to save money. I dont think they will activate them.
Come on, Rook. Show us that million-dollar arm, 'cause I got a good idea about that five-cent head of yours.
If that was the case we wouldn’t have spent so much in the draft.
Rogers and the team spends when they have a reason to. They cut back near the end of the JP era because they didn’t trust him anymore.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
Alex Rios was let go because of money....
This was our first year spending that much on the draft. and IMO Its a big difference spending 14mill on prospects (especially when we got 30 something players for that much) then spending 26 mill for a guy who will be heading towards the downside of his career.
JP was never a build from the draft guy IMO, he wanted to build with FA. When that dident work out (cuz Rogers likes to save money) he got sacked. Then AA comes along and says we are going to invest in the draft. Rogers saw that and loved it cuz its way cheaper to do that then spend millions on FA every year.
I like HIll and think he is going to be a very good 3B (if thats what they want to do) but after this year you have to atleast look at not activating, because you dont know what Hill your going to get.
Come on, Rook. Show us that million-dollar arm, 'cause I got a good idea about that five-cent head of yours.
by syc on Sep 2, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
JP was never a build it from the draft guy?
Hill, Lind, Snider, Romero, Scabble, Cecil, Janssen, Purcey, Arencibia..many others. I doubt you could find many teams who have gotten as much from the draft.
Ok here we go off the top of my head we have...
Tampa Bay. Crawford, Upton, Nieman, Davis, Longoria, and Price. also drafted Josh Hamilton and Delmon Young
Minnesota: Mauer, Morneau, Span, Baker and Crain also drafted Matt Garza
Boston: Jacoby, Bucholtz, Pedroia, Bard, Papelbon, Lester and Ryan Kalish also drafted Hanley Ramirez
Dodgers: Kemp, Loney, Kershaw, Billingsley, and Broxton
Milwaukee: Gallardo, Fielder, Braun, Gamel, JJ Hardy, and Rickie Weeks. also drafted Matt LaPorta
Id also add maybe San Fran and Oakland to the list
Come on, Rook. Show us that million-dollar arm, 'cause I got a good idea about that five-cent head of yours.
by syc on Sep 2, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
You aren’t remembering the past,
When JP first came in they cut a bunch of salary because we were going to compete the moneyball way. We were going to find some way to compete with the big guys and exploit it without paying a bunch. The Jays cut and trimed back because that was what the plan was.
Then that didn’t work. They went out and signed and/or traded for a bunch of guys, Glaus, Ryan, Burnett, Overbay, Re-Up Wells, Re-sign Halladay we got our payroll up over 93 Mil or so. That didn’t work, we won just as many games as before and didn’t end up in any better position then before (save that 2nd place finish which honestly doesn’t amount to anything).
JP then goes back to the excuse of not being able to spend with the big boys and saying you have to build through the draft. Rogers has enough and limits his power before canning him.
AA comes in and immediately throws a bunch of money into the scouting department. They attempt to sign Chapman and offer big bucks, apparently if you believe the reports we offered more money but he signed somewhere else that he wanted to play for whatever reason (making it sooner or what not), we then throw big money at Adeiny and lure him in, Spend big bucks in the draft.
I am just not seeing what you are seeing. You say the Jays aren’t spending money, but everything that they have done (Since AA came into power) has indicated otherwise. The only thing they didn’t do was spend big in Free Agency…. but considering where we currently are in the sports team arc of Build, compete, tear down it didn’t make sense to. And honeslty who would have spent money on? There was no one in the last Free Agency period that I would have wanted the Jays to empty the bank at.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
Sorry meant to say you aren’t remember the same past as me.
And Alex Rios was let go because of money true, But also because of performance, Money vs the performance that the money was occupying.
If they could dump Wells they would and I would too. But that doesn’t they don’t want to spend the money, it means they don’t want to spend it foolishly.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
Rios was having a good year and an even better one this year. The problem with him is that every one over rates our prospects. He was never going to be a 30HR guy but thats what we all wanted him to do every year.
Come on, Rook. Show us that million-dollar arm, 'cause I got a good idea about that five-cent head of yours.
by syc on Sep 2, 2010 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Rios was having a good year
News to me. He finished the season with a .296 OBP and a .691 OPS. That’s pathetic for a corner outfielder. Fangraphs had him at 0.4 WAR which is the equivalent of $1.8 M in salary.
Not to mention, he appeared to have no interest in playing over here anymore by the way he played the game. It might not look like it today, but the Jays made the right move (from a performance perspective) letting Rios go when Chicago claimed him.
I honestly think it's tough to say whether it was the right move
certainly it was a defensible move, particularly from a monetary standpoint, but I wouldn’t mind having Rios back for the next two seasons. Rios isn’t a superstar, but he’s returned to the numbers he was putting up for Toronto in 2007 and 2008 and coupled with his quality defense, that’s pretty valuable – although the Jays were never going to get full value for Rios with him in right field. One can argue that Rios wouldn’t have rebounded if he were still playing in Toronto but I don’t buy it. I wouldn’t at all mind having a Snider-Wells-Rios outfield in 2011, with Bautista getting most of the work at third and Encarnacion moved into more of a part time DH and backup 1st and 3rd baseman role.
I think the Rios thing was substantially motivated by money and by off-field issues. When his performance tanked in 2009, even though it was always likely to rebound, the writing was on the wall.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
He had one bad year and he was gone because he dident live up to the ridiculous standards we all wanted him to achieve.
Come on, Rook. Show us that million-dollar arm, 'cause I got a good idea about that five-cent head of yours.
I'd say there's a good chance..
the Rios outright release was part of cleaning up the clubhouse poison last year.
Alex Rios 2009 Toronto Blue Jays numbers: 247/296/395 with an OPS of .691
I think our definitions of ‘a good year’ are very different. The thinking with the Rios waiver claim was that the Jays management had originally believed Rios had the capacity to emerge as a star player, and by that point in 2009, they came to the decision that wasn’t going to happen with him in Toronto, and they were overpaying him for the production they could expect to receive.
If the mandate had been to dump salary, Halladay would have been gone at the trade deadline last year, along with Scott Downs and Lyle Overbay.
The reason we can afford to spend tons on the draft and international FA this year is because we saved the years before. The dumping of Rios helped jump start that with a nice little nest egg AA inherited to play around with.
Come on, Rook. Show us that million-dollar arm, 'cause I got a good idea about that five-cent head of yours.
by syc on Sep 2, 2010 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but if they just wanted to save they wouldn’t have let him have the money.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
They had to keep him. He was the only true young up in comer we had. He was perceived to be the future of the team at the time.
If they let him walk at that point it would have been catastrophic. Imagine this site and how many people would have been pissed that we let Rios go at that point.
I think its safe to say that this team likes to save money when it can, and likes to spend money in a responsible manner. (this year)
Come on, Rook. Show us that million-dollar arm, 'cause I got a good idea about that five-cent head of yours.
by syc on Sep 3, 2010 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions
No, I mean if they team wanted to save the money they wouldn’t have let AA spend the “Nest Egg” they had accumulated.
You argument was they like to save money, but them spending more money this year shows otherwise. Regardless of how they got the money whether that is from cuts or payroll increases it shows at worst a Nil effect (so no saving) or just spending more.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
your basing it off one maybe two years. Go back to 95 till now and it was all about saving except for the two maybe three maybe times we spent money. (this years draft, VW and Rios Contract and when we tried to go for it. Aj, BJ etc etc)
My original argument wasent that we dident spend money but we liked to save money. Which we do and history does prove that.
Come on, Rook. Show us that million-dollar arm, 'cause I got a good idea about that five-cent head of yours.
your exceptions are swallowing the rule
we don’t spend money…if you take out all the times we do
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
same has as my argument which takes out the times we dont like to save money.
Like I said before cant we agree that we like to save and spend money? I would also add the Delgado contract on your side. It was a general statement (and meant to be) but getting back to the original argument. If Hill can hit .350 or .320 in September then we should activate. But if he hits like E5 this month then you have to take a serious look at not activating. His power is there but if he hits .210 avg and .310 OBP for the next 4 years ill take a pass on giving him 24 mill.
Come on, Rook. Show us that million-dollar arm, 'cause I got a good idea about that five-cent head of yours.
If not Hill than who?
Aaron Hill is one of the top 10 2B in the league. The Jays have absolutely no prospects that can fill his spot in the near future (next 2/3 years). It is fair to say that his next 4 year average stats will be: .250ba, 20hr, 70rbi, 80runs. That is pretty great for a 2B. I really hope we activate those 3 years and if we do not, we need to make sure that he doesn’t just walk away. Either activate those years or trade him.
Hechavarria
The talk is that since Escobar’s too good to be displaced by Hechavarria he will stay at SS with Adeiny moving to 2B, if that’s what the plan indeed is (not saying it is with AA) then he’s exactly who will replace Hill. Of course, in that plan Hill moves to 3B but then you’ve got a different problem.
Future of 3B
I am a EE fan (if he hit 26hrs before, he can do it again especially since he is in his prime) and I really hope he is our regular 3B however I just don’t see it happening anymore. He is very injury prone and is horrible defensively and on the base pads. There is also Bautista who could play 3B if Snider is in RF and Lewis is in LF with Lind at DH. But then again our situation might change. If AA is ready to take the next step and is able to take a calculated risk than I believe he should take those options. If worse comes to worst, we can drop him like we did with Rios.
by Schenn4captain on Sep 4, 2010 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not giving up on Hill and in all probability I expect him to be a valuable part of the team for several years at least. But if there’s any doubt in the Jays mind, then I’d say don’t exercise the options this off-season and see how 2011 goes, after which can still exercise two option years. It depends on risk, if the Jays want to be cautious about committing then the price is foregoing one option year. But considering we’d still have two more option years if we exercised only next year, then I wouldn’t be too bothered by it.
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