Is a good finish important? And other questions raised by Scott Carson.
by Tom Dakers on Sep 8, 2010 12:25 PM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintYou know those times when everything seems to be breaking down for you and you seem to be spending all your time (and money) trying to get things repaired and/or buying new things. Well that has been my life lately.In the last month there was a small fire in my desktop computer, the sewer backed up, our oven stopped working and yesterday my laptop wouldn't boot up. It is all Rogers fault somehow.
At the start of this little run of spending money I got a blackberry because my phone was getting old and, well, I wanted one. I can get 'apps'. I got the Sportsnet app, because it was free. Free is good.
Scott Carson has a column up titled "Strong Finish Mandatory". First, I don't think a strong finish is mandatory. It would be nice. What I think would be mandatory is to get Snider out there everyday, get Arencibia out there as much as we can, play Lind at first a good bit, it would be nice to pitch Josh Roenicke some and not injure any pitchers arm. Winning is fun and I'm not against it in the least, but if it was a choice of win or play Snider, I'd pick play Snider (not that playing him gives us any less chance of winning). But for Scott:
It is imperative, both for the psyche of the ball club and for their evolving fan base, that the Jays go hard right through the finish line of the season.
I think it would be good for their 'evolving fan base' to, you know, get to see the games on TV. But that's me.
After a few boring little bits, starting pitching is good, bullpen isn't, Jose Bautista good. He says a couple of things that caught my attention.
With Lyle Overbay likely to leave through free agency, Adam Lind, in his limited exposure to the position, clearly is not the answer. Lind has looked very shaky on pop ups hit down the line behind him and just hasn't looked comfortable.
Really? I guess we see what we want to see but I think that Lind has looked quite reasonable at first. He might not be Overbay's equal yet or ever, but he has made the plays, caught the throws made to him, even dug a couple of short hops. Yeah I think he has missed one or two short hops but even Lyle misses some. He hasn't made an error yet. I'd be quite willing to give him a longer look at the position. He is signed for a few years and he is too young to be put in at DH forever. I think playing a position will keep him in the game better too.
Also I wonder, is how a first baseman looks on 'popups hit down the line' one of the big issues? I guess that it would be nice if all players did everything well. And I'm sure with practice, Lind would be ok at that too. But then, how many times has it come up in Adam's 67 innings thus far? Once? Twice? If we are defining a player by one thing that he doesn't do well, shouldn't it be something more important?
Then Scott says:
I'm hoping that the deep thinkers might consider a position change for minor league slugger J.P. Arencibia from catching to first. Arencibia has the size and the athleticism to man the position, perhaps a stint in winter ball somewhere in the Caribbean might be needed to see if they won't have to go outside the organization to fill that bill.
Ok, let's say we decided that Lind. We think we should move another player? Take Arencibia away from a position that doesn't have an obvious starter next year. A position that he played all the way through the minors. And, Scott figures, with 2 months work in winter ball, JP will be better at first than Lind, after Lind has spent the whole season working with Brian Butterfield.
Add in that a team needs offense from the first baseman. JP would have have to hit the ground slugging. At catcher, the team would be a little more understanding of a slow start.
Yeah JP has the size and athleticism for the position. Lind has the size too. And Athleticism? Frank Thomas played the position for ten plus years. Prince Fielder plays it now. It isn't shortstop we are talking about.
Maybe, sometime JP will move to first, but, at the moment, we don't have a catcher for next year. I guess we could keep John Buck, if we figured we were moving Arencibia to first. Though, Buck looks to be a Type B free agent. I think Alex Anthopoulos would rather get another first round draft pick.
Next:
...the search for another corner outfielder should be a high priority for the Jays heading into the 2011 off-season. Hopefully that player will be a switch-hitter with speed.
Ok, we want a free agent corner outfielder, with speed and he should be a switch hitter. Scott, please, point this free agent out for me? Carl Crawford? Nah, bats lefty. MLB Trade Rumors has a list of potential free agents and I can't see a switch hitting corner infielder with speed....oh sorry, I found him. Randy Winn. That's what we need. Great. Good news is he'll be easy to sign.
I guess we could trade for this player. But I'm not sure who we are talking about. Andres Torres? Ben Zobrist? Trevor Crowe?
He finishes with:
The next goal for this franchise is a .500 finish, meaning that the team needs to win at least 10 of their final 25 games to achieve a status that few thought was possible at the beginning of April.
10 of 25 is a Mandatory strong finish? I guess we define terms differently.
There were two other Sportnet postings that I wanted to point out, but it will wait for later. Oven repairman is here.
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Scott Carson
says things that don’t make any sense
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Devil's advocate.
Let’s say JPA does move to 1st. If we resigned Buck and had the usual Buck/Molina tandem for 2011, would d’Arnaud be ready for 2012? From everything I’ve seen, d’Arnaud is to be the catcher of the future. I just assumed JPA would be moving positions.
However I’d like to see Lind play in the field. I have to believe a young guy would feel more “in the game” if he played a position. I have to wonder if it affected his bat at all? I guess it didn’t really last year…nevermind :)
by craig in calgary on Sep 8, 2010 12:35 PM EDT reply actions
it did last year
he hit much better when he played in the field than when he didn’t. But he’s not great in left and an outfield of Lind, Wells and Snider wouldn’t be great
not likely
d’Arnaud’s back gave him trouble for over half the season this year and shut him down early. At this point, given the strain catching p0uts on the back, the jays should hedge their bets about counting on him to remain behind the plate. He’s at least 2 years away, and possible 3.
d'Arnaud could be a solid catcher but...
i think we got a real gem in Perez comming up who could overtake d’Arnaud as our future catcher
It's good to love to win but it's better to hate to lose.
I agree that on the few occassions a foul pop or a pop up hit to the left side Lind hasn't looked comfortable
But I can’t imagine a way for it to be practiced reliably so maybe he just needs playing time at first to get use to it.
Having a lack of experience at the position doesn’t mean he isn’t the solution. Otherwise any young player wouldn’t be the solution to anything. Or maybe Carson is toeing the Cito company line.
Ball.
I think it would be good for their ‘evolving fan base’ to, you know, get to see the games on TV.
Word.
As for JPA and Lind, I’m all for starting them in 1B and C out of Spring Training and shaking it down after the first 6 weeks. If Lind is a butcher in the field, look at moving him back to DH, or seeing if you can do the Martinez thing and giving JPA starts at first.
I agree, the problem is we have a small sample space
Get Lind more games at 1B, build confidence and let’s see what kind of 1B he can be defensively.
Also, giving JPA a chance to stop the revolving door at C, grab the position and lock it down is the only way forward. Sure we rolled the dice on Buck and it worked out, but stop gap catchers isn’t a sustainable plan.
But again, we are assessing both these things with a handful of Major League games. Put them out there, see how they do..
Get the games on TV!
Since nobody can watch the games now it really doesn’t matter how they finish. The only people paying attention are us die-hard fans, and we’ll be watching next year regardless. If the games were on TV, it would make much more sense to sprint to the finish, maybe pull ahead of the Red Sox, i.e. build some buzz among the casual fans heading into next year.
by shuswapslugger on Sep 8, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
a few thoughts....
1. Scott Carson is not the brightest bulb on the old xmas tree.
2. Lind looked awkward tracking flies in LF, I wouldn’t expect him to look any different at 1B. Looking awkward is Lind’s style, does not necessarily mean he is ineffective.
3. I would expect that even if he is ineffective tracking fouls at 1B, it would result to at most 5 second chances for hitters over the course of the season. This would result in an extra two baserunners per year. Wow, scary!
4. I haven’t seen Lind play first base yet, for some reason.
5. I’d be most worried about fielding short hops and handling hot shots.
6. I think JPA could likely step in and be a better first baseman than Lind from Day 1, because his skill set at catcher is more in line with the skills noted in #5 above.
7. I think JPA should stay at catcher until somebody forces him out.
8. If the Jays want to bring back Buck, I’d be in favour of Lind and JPA sharing 1B and DH on an everyday basis, and JPA getting a few starts at catcher too. This would involve a Molina or worse backup being in the house. (or possibly Jeroloman)
9. I think the outfield next year is set – Snider-Wells-Bautista. But how about a JoBau for Rasmus trade?
Awesome parsing here, Tom.
Hope you got the sewer back-up cleaned up okay. I’m in the restoration industry and have seen my share of sewage woes.
Snider-Wells-Bautista in the outfield would suit me just fine on opening day.
I generally enjoy Carson’s columns, but sometimes it seems like he should stick to his stats and stop writing. Sometimes us fans will overvalue players we like, even if in the long run it doesn’t make sense for the Jays’ to keep them and/or play them as starters. But in this case I don’t think that’s what we’re doing.
If Lind doesn’t play 1st, does he go back to DHing? LF?? Trade??? (Hope not!).
Then where does Snider fit in……RF? Apparently the team doesn’t like him there. So LF? DH?? Trade??? (REALLY hope not!!)
And how do we know that JPA can’t catch at the major league level? We don’t, it’s just an assumption that a few people have made based on very few innings and 2 games where we gave up some runs while he was catching. Give him a chance next year and see what happens. We’re not supposed to contend yet anyways.
I think right now the wildcards are Bautista and Lewis. Do the Jays step to the plate and offer a 3-4 year deal for Bautista, hoping he can be a consistent 30 HR guy for the next few years? And do they believe Lewis is the answer as our lead-off hitter? Or do they trade one or both, and for whom? Without knowing that, it’s tough to make too many judgements on what this team should look like next year.
Couple of things.
1) You had him listed as Carlson in your title. Should be Carson.
2) I agree with you completely. I read this one the other day and just kinda went Huh?
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
It is imperative, both for the psyche of the ball club and for their evolving fan base, that the Jays go hard right through the finish line of the season.
If this was really true, then Brandon Morrow should not be shut down for the rest of the season. Fortunately it isn’t and Morrow can reflect on a really good season and feel really good about next year.
Most importantly, he can rest his arm. I wouldn’t mind if they shut Romero down too. He already surpassed his career high in innings and is well on his way for over 200.
by Schenn4captain on Sep 8, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Ricky threw 164 (minors) in 2008, and 192 in 2009 (between the majors and minors). He’s at 187 so far in 2010. Unless we don’t want him to be able to throw 200+, I’d say you let him go. He’s probably got 5 starts left. You can maybe limit him a bit, but I certainly wouldn’t be shutting him down unless he throw 4 straight CGs or something like that. Which simply won’t happen.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Again...
it isn’t that you don’t want the pitchers to exceed the number of innings from last year. It is that you don’t want them to exceed the number of innings by more than 20%. I want Ricky to pitch more innings than last year because I want him to be able to pitch a full season’s worth next year.
well 20% is pretty arbitrary to begin with
and 120% of 192 is 230.3 IP, which he won’t get to. Though I’m not sure you’re advocating shutting Romero down.
it may be arbitrary
but it’s Alex’s standard so it’s the one most likely to be applied.
you don't know that it's a standard
evidence actually says it’s a rough guide
Hes not saying standard, hes saying its how AA does it.
Regardless if its standard a rough guide or a one in a million, Its how AA does things and that is what Will was saying
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
i know what he's saying
I’m saying we don’t know that AA treats it as a “standard”. In fact, it seems to be less predictable than that since several players in the organization have exceeded 120%. So to say “it’s Alex’s standard” is pretty stupid.
there aren't several players that have exceed that....
Remember this is young pitchers that you are worried about this. If you can find 5 pitchers this season, 25 or under that have exceeded that 120% that are considered prospects of any sort, I’d be surprised.
I honestly don’t thing a good finish is critical. I would rather see Purcey, Carlson, and Roenicke gets some strong looks. I would like to see what Richmond, Mills, Zeps, and S.Hill could do as starters. I would like to see Arencibia in there everyday, because there is no way Buck is going to lose his B status at this point. It would be nice to see Lind in at first everyday because there is no point in playing Overbay anymore unless they plan to keep him.
Critical no, but desirable, yes. This goes back to the same thing when talking about sitting Buck for the rest of the season for Arencibia. From the pure development side of the club with an eye to next year, it makes a lot of sense. However, the players won’t go for it. If you basically run up the white flag for the rest of the season, and the effects of that on the players and the organization will reverberate into next year and beyond.
I agree we need to see all of the young guys. They should be getting starts and mixed into the games. But mixing and matching them into the rotation and lineup with an eye still firmly focused on winning is still important. It may not be the best plan from a purely objective viewpoint, but this is how you’re supposed to play the game.
by dexfarkin on Sep 8, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This Carson article from the start of the season seems relavent
I’ll never forget this: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2010/03/23/mlbpreview_alwest/
Scroll down to the section on Seattle. Carson says “One thing is for sure: the Mariners are going to score a ton of runs.” Huh? The Mariners are having one of the worst offensive seasons in the history of major league baseball! Yeah we have 20/20 hindsight now, but even before the season started people were saying that they had nobody to drive in runs.
I thought the Mariners were going to be a very good team this year. With Figgins, Gutierrez, Ichiro, and Bradley, it was a decent lineup with speed, excellent defense, behind a very good rotation and a decent bullpen. I think I said I thought they had a decent shot of toppling the Angels at the time.
A strong Finish
A strong finish might be imperative to the players, as it should be. Remember the year is all about development and stock piling talent. I know some of the dailly line ups look more like a manager who is trying to pad his personal win-loss record than on player development. I believe that it is important to keep all their type A and B upcoming Free Agents healthy and to hold there present status. Alot of the experts have stated that the 2011 Amatuer Draft has some of the best talent seen years. Further more John Buck stated that maybe we can catch Boston. That may sound like a great accomplishment, but I am not sure if I want to select after the Red Sox 50 times next June.
Boston is winning with call-up!
Francona has beaten Tampa twice this series with as many as 5 rookies on the field at one time.
And, I know his situation is more of ‘I gotta play these kids because of the overall health of the team’ but Maddon could not wait to get Hellickson out in the OF and batted him 2nd the first day of call-ups against us. Saying that you can’t run out the young players against teams in contention for playoffs out of respect for the other manager….. when that is exactly what THEY are doing in September, is sad.
Strong, yes, but not too strong if you are in the camp that wants the jays to look at Type A free agents.
Right now they have the seventeenth worst record, and there are three compensation picks, which means they pick 20th and the first 18 picks are protected. On the other hand, unless someone gets quite hot or the jays get quite cold, there’s only one team that might pass them so, ya know, probably not gonna happen..
and if it’s not, then to me a “strong finish” means running down the Red Sox.
I wouldn't be unhappy
if they limped home to a 16th overall finish and got that #1 protected. They could still finish over .500 and do it.
I think regardless of what happens in the next three weeks, everyone will feel pretty good and confident about the team going forward and a “strong finish” is not necessary.
agreed
I don’t want them to be unsuccessful just to get a better draft pick as I’d always rather see the team play well, but even if they lost every game from here on out I don’t think it takes away from all they’ve accomplished this season.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I don’t think a “strong” finish by the team at the team is that important. From the team’s perspective, the manager is changing next year, so it’s a fresh start regardless come spring time. And really the team has already performed well this year, and I don’t think any weakness down the stretch will demoralize anyone, particularly with Morrow shut down and a bunch of call-ups on the team. As for the fans, there’s no illusions that this is a retooling year, so how we play down the stretch isn’t a huge deal. If fans aren’t excited about this team this year, they probably aren’t the type of fans that will be until we actually are in a playoff hunt. The only aspect in which a strong finish really matters is in terms of the players and their individual performances, particularly from players who have underperformed this year or are looking to earn a job next year, then psychologically finishing strong can be a good springboard to take with them over the off-season (and leave in the minds of management as they make their decisions).
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