We've been having a lot of fun projecting the stats of the starting pitchers but I feel the need to point to the elephant in the room: injuries. Last year, I think we only had one pitcher go on the DL (Marcum, unless you want to count Litsch as well) and that was only for the minimum time. In other words, the Jays were lucky, or were they?
In this BtB article, the author states that there's a more than 30% chance that a given starter will go on the DL in a given year. Put in other words, two starters are likely go down during the season (see here and here for more info). Last year, Marcum had the highest factors for going on the DL and actually ended up there. So the Jays beat the 30%. On the other hand, the remainder of the pitchers were young, and being young helps you avoid the DL. On the other hand, Marcum's stay was only for 15 days, so the total number of days on the DL was small. On the other hand, we should count Litsch because he was a starter...
Having run out of hands, I put it to the BBBers.
Who is most likely to end up on the DL for the longest? Feel free to explain and expound.
Ricky Romero (5 votes)
Brett Cecil (19 votes)
Brandon Morrow (37 votes)
Kyle Drabek (6 votes)
Whoever is the 5th starter (12 votes)
Nobody (Jays beat the odds) (19 votes)
98 total votes