The Sun Shines Through the Curtain Lace: Toronto Blue Jays 2011 Dangling Conversation, Part III

by hugo on Jan 21, 2011 7:04 AM EST in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis

Parts I is here, Part II is here.

Hugo: With pitchers and catchers reporting to training camp in just over a month, the Jays have a bit of a battle for both the starting rotation and the bullpen. What are you looking to see as that develops, and who do you like for the staff in 2011?

Jesse: Well, the worry as we enter spring training is always health. It certainly isn’t unheard of to see little injuries cost pitchers time to get ready in the Spring and delay the start of the season. With that caveat out of the way, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil should be in the rotation and I think that Kyle Drabek is a virtual lock unless he gets repeatedly shelled. The fifth spot should be interesting. If I had to venture a guess, I’d think that Marc Rzepczynski has a strong spring and gets the fifth job. Brad Mills looks good this spring and starts the season as a longman and Jesse Litsch still looks a bit rusty and begins in Vegas. If there’s an injury, I’d think Mills could serve as a swingman or, depending on when the injury occurs, the Jays may call someone up. I’d think Zach Stewart will be in Vegas, even though the Jays have had a history of promoting from New Hampshire.

JohnnyG: In the rotation I see Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Drabek and Rzepczynski. However, as Jesse mentioned it will be interesting and that is the one spot that may be up for grabs. If Litsch or Mills comes out firing it could really move things around. I would agree that Stewart is heading to Vegas (or possibly New Hampshire). Who knows though, last year I was convinced Cecil and Rzep started the year in the rotation as there was NO WAY that Tallet was going to start (let alone be the 2nd starter).

Hugo: Would it be cool if we never mentioned Tallet starting again?

JohnnyG: No deal, those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it.

Tom: I don’t think we’ll forget Tallet.
I think we’ll start out with the five starters Jesse and Johnny mentioned, with Litsch and Stewart to fill in if there is an injury.
The pen looks like some combination of Frasor, Camp, Janssen, Dotel and Villanueva from the right. Carlson, Purcey and someone (Mills or Fuentes?) from the left. Roenicke and Cordero could make it with a good spring.

masterkembo: How do you guys feel that Richmond fits in this year? Is he healthy? Competing for a long relief spot, or back to the minors?

JohnnyG: I do not have shiny happy feelings about Richmond, not sure if he is healthy at this point, but at absolute best I see him in the pen in a long to middle relief role.

Hugo: I actually liked Richmond in the bullpen as a righty specialist for this season. I think he’s got a respectable fastball that would have even more zip if he was only pitching an inning or so at a time, and a quality slider that I think would work well in a righty specialist role. His career numbers against righties (4.21 K/BB, 1 WHIP) are quite strong. Unfortunately, the club picked up Dotel and he’s sort of a similar pitcher at this point in his career (as is Rauch, for that matter) so I’m not sure there’s a spot for Richmond.

Post your own thoughts about how the Jays' pitching staff will shake out in 2011 in the comments.

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Comments

Litsch

I have a feeling, as much as I hope I am wrong, that Litsch has the 5th starters job, if healthy. Not totally sure why, just a feeling. I would much prefer Rzep, but Litsch just seems to keep hanging around.

The organization just seems to me to be a bit strangely committed to him.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Jan 21, 2011 8:30 AM EST reply actions

I don't think it's all that strange

Litsch’s first season was arguably smoke and mirrors, but his second year he was a solid pitcher despite the low K rates. Lots of groundballs, microscopic walk rates. I’m not saying he’s better than Zep, or he should have the inside track at the job, but I wouldn’t hand the spot to Zep either. I’d give Mills a shot at it, too – he’s been respectable in the PCL the past two seasons. The truth is all three will almost definitely get their shot in 2011 so it almost doesn’t matter who breaks camp in the rotation.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 21, 2011 8:48 AM EST up reply actions

True

Perhaps it’s a “what have you done for me lately” thing for me (I suppose Zep hasn’t exactly done much either). Litsch doesn’t strike me as the type of pitcher who will succeed in the AL East, but he did do ok in year 2.

And you are 100% right on all 3 getting a shot at some point in 2011. I almost wonder if that was part of the rationale for trading Marcum…the Jays wanted to figure out exactly what they had in some of these guys.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Jan 21, 2011 9:00 AM EST up reply actions

I'm inclined to believe

You are right that Litsch has the inside track on #5 if healthy. More experience (and success) in the majors than Zep to date, but also it’s a better showcase forum than AAA if they are looking to use him as trade bait.

We have to do what we do better and we have to do it faster! - Jack Bauer

by Corey Perrin on Jan 21, 2011 9:52 AM EST up reply actions

Apparently Richmond was at the Vancouver leg of the Jays winter tour.

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Jan 21, 2011 8:38 AM EST reply actions

Well, considering Richmond is near Vancouver...

…I’m sorry that was a terrible joke. I just couldn’t resist.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Jan 21, 2011 8:45 AM EST up reply actions

I see this as a "let's see who's got some consistency" year

We know that the starting 3 are all young, but can they repeat it their success/improve on it. If they can (and I’m thinking they can) then the Jays can seriously start talking about contending.

I’m stating the obvious here, but pitching is what is required in the AL Beast. Doesn’t matter if you can bash the crap out of the ball unless your pitchers can hold the other guys down. I’m inclined to agree with AA, you need a rotation built around power pitchers and/or guys who can get ground balls with a bit of zip on their fastballs.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 21, 2011 9:14 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

Litsch will win a spot

fair bit of experience, and before injuries he was successful..plus he might field the position better than anyone I’ve ever watched besides Buerhle. Is Richmond seriously still on the 40 man? Holy crap, I just had a flashback to the dicey rotation we had two years ago..if he makes the bullpen or God forbid the rotation..things have went dreadfully wrong.

by ABsteve on Jan 21, 2011 9:47 AM EST reply actions

Funny you mention Buerhle...

GROF had a story a while back about Litsch and apparently Buerhle and Litsch are two of only twelve starters since 2007 with ground ball rates under 50% and K/9 under 5, the rest is unimpressive.

by T_Mizz on Jan 21, 2011 9:59 AM EST up reply actions

Marcum fielded the position very well too

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Jan 21, 2011 10:07 AM EST up reply actions

Richmond

Is very good against righties. I have no problem with him making the bullpen. If he stays healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is in Vegas, but will probably make the club at some point this year due to injuries and what not.

by masterkembo on Jan 21, 2011 10:10 AM EST up reply actions

Cordero

If he shows he is healthy and back “in form” during the spring, it could be a seriously strong bullpen, especially at the back end with Cordero, Dotel and Rauch. Also opens up a number of trade possibilities.

It might have been nice to sign a veteran lefty for the pen, rather than Dotel, but maybe there wasn’t much out there other than Fuentes.

We have to do what we do better and we have to do it faster! - Jack Bauer

by Corey Perrin on Jan 21, 2011 9:57 AM EST reply actions

I think there's a good chance Stewart blows everyone away in SP

Power sinker running up to 95..I get daydreams of Kevin Brown running through my head..I remember KLaw was gushing about him after his start in the playoffs last year..I think it was him who started against Petite right?

by ABsteve on Jan 21, 2011 10:32 AM EST reply actions

yep

8 shutout innings

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 21, 2011 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

I'm really big on Stewart

They’ve been compared before, but just by gut feeling, and having read about their “stuff”, I really think Stewart is definitely comparable to Drabek. I’d even go to say, that I think he could be the better pitcher by the end of this year.

Proud member of the AL North

by Vagabond13 on Jan 21, 2011 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

Drabek is far from a lock

Unless he absolutely blows everyone out of the water in spring, it might help him to start out in the minors so he will take nothing for granted.

The other elephant in this room is that Anthopolis is still building for the future. Litch, Zep, Richmond and Mills are useless to him (as assets) if they are pitching in the minors. If at least one of those three could win a job and do well, he becomes trade bait or it enables AA to trade a different arm.

My money is on the slimmer Jesse Litch and maybe Zep as 4 and 5. Drabek will be called up later in the season.

by Joe Jay Lun on Jan 21, 2011 10:51 AM EST reply actions

Just like to point out

that All the of those player’s (Litsch, Zep, and Mills) are 25 or younger…

by jaysfan100 on Jan 23, 2011 8:02 PM EST up reply actions

bullpen seems to be over-full

Assuming that the Jays head into 2011 with 6 in the ‘pen who is left out? Currently there. Personally I see Dotel, Rauch, Frasor, Camp, Janssen and Villanueva as locks but all are right-handed so if they go with a 7 man bullpen that leaves Purcey or Carlson as the lone lefty which isn’t ideal. It also leaves Litsch, Mills and Carlson or Purcey on the outside looking in.

So a trade of Jason Frasor or Shawn Camp could be in order to open up a spot for a 2nd lefty? We shall see.

by bunner on Jan 21, 2011 11:18 AM EST reply actions

I wouldn’t be surprised at this point to see Frasor traded. And a 7 man pen comprising Dotel, Rauch, Camp, Janssen, Villanueva, Purcey and one of Mills, Rzep or Carlson.

by masterkembo on Jan 21, 2011 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

Trade Frasor

What do you think that he would bring?

by bankertuck on Jan 21, 2011 11:32 AM EST up reply actions

Not much

Probably a C level prospect, but at least they wouldn’t have to pay him.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Jan 21, 2011 11:40 AM EST up reply actions

Can’t imagine he would bring much back. Unless somebody is really desperate. And really, who is desperate for a relief pitcher? It’s too bad. I like Frasor – I would much rather have him pitching at $3.5M than Dotel pitching at $3.5M this season.

by masterkembo on Jan 21, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions