Post-Vernon Trade reaction: Is AA finished making moves? Are the Jays finished in the standings?

by SuckaMD on Jan 22, 2011 11:25 AM EST

I have a nagging feeling that this still isn't the end of the Jays' offseason moves. I'm completely bummed about the Manny non-signing (we couldn't front $3M for a 4WAR hitter?!?!?!?), but I'm sure AA is aware of the Napoli/JPA catcher situation. Both are clearly capable catchers, with JPA holding the upside/potential advantage and Napoli being the established commodity with 2 more years of arbitration (FA after 2012 season). The trade has to be called a win for the Jays, since they got the best player in the deal (Napoli - according to fangraphs analysis) while dumping a huge salary commitment.

I have to think that AA is going to be shopping the two of them around and seeing what he can get. JPA probably can command more in trade, but teams with a good prospect in the mid-minors and looking for a boost now would surely want Napoli. Even if we trade JPA, Napoli bridges the gap very nicely while we see what we have in D'Arnaud and Perez.

There is also still the issue of 3B/RF and where does Bautista play. Is Rivera pencilled in as an everyday corner OF now? Does Bautista move to 3B, even though he apparently wants to play RF? What do we do with E5, is he really only playing 1B and DHing? All these questions lead me to believe that the offseason moves haven't ended yet.

Second, and this is probably a case of me looking through rose-coloured glasses but please humour me, does jettisoning Vernon really make the 2011 team appreciably worse? Vernon was good last year (4 fWAR), but had been worth a combined 3 fWAR the previous 3 seasons. I doubt that we could count on 128 wRC+ again from him in 2011. A 5-3-2 weighted projection puts him at 110 wRC+ for next year, still quite good. Shane Victorino put up 111 wRC+ in 2010 and was worth 3.3 oWAR. But Wells' defense is probably also going to regress (same weighting gives him -10.7RAR next year). This quick projection pegs him at somewhere around 2-2.5 WAR in 2011.

If it's true that we are looking at Scott Podsednik and we stick him and Davis as a platoon in CF, as unpalatable as that sounds I figure we can expect around .750 OPS from that combo. Adam Jones had a .767 OPS with a similar fangraphs speed rating to both Davis and Podsednik, which translated to 106 wRC+ last season in a slightly-more-hitter-friendly home-park environment than Toronto (Camden Yards was the 5th best hitter's park in baseball 2010, SkyDome was 8th). So let's put the Pods/Davis' CF combo down for ~105 wRC+ next year. Using the same 5-3-2 weighting as for Wells, Pods' defense projects at -6.1 RAR in LF (maybe -15 in CF) and Davis +1.7. Overall, I'd give the pair somewhere around -8RAR, pretty close to Jones' -5RAR. Jones was worth 2.3 fWAR last year, so the Pods/Davis combo can probably give us ~2 fWAR production next year. That looks pretty similar to the value that AA and the Jays could reasonably have expected from 2011 Vernon. Even ignoring Podsednik, Fangraphs' fan projection system projects Davis alone to be worth 1.7WAR, which would be better than Vernon was in 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Alternately, Corey Patterson projects as around a 0RAR CF. He also had a .794 OPS last season versus RHP (though .720 career). If, admittedly a big if, he can be counted on for .750 OPS vs RHP in 2011, such a Patterson/Davis CF combo would provide approximately similar offensive production to 2010 Adam Jonesand be a half-win better in the field. If Patterson can hit RHP even a little bit, he and Davis together could put up 2.5-3 WAR together. I just threw up in my mouth a little, but a platoon CF situation with Davis and Patterson could reasonably be expected to be anywhere from slightly better to only slightly worse than Vernon in 2011.

There are a few clear caveats here. One is that Wells' upside is MUCH higher than Pods/Davis, who could never reach a 4WAR season. Second is that my analysis assumes that fWAR is able to accurately analyze and value defensive contributions, which is still up in the air. Third, I've clearly drunk too much of the AA Kool-Aid. But if we accept regression for Wells as a likelihood given his 2010 production spike and current age, he may not actually be better in 2011 than the Jays' current CF options.

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I'd hate to see Podsednik in CF.

I figured the one thing that the trade would improve is the outfield defense. Won’t if Podsednik is out there.

by Tom Dakers on Jan 22, 2011 11:54 AM EST reply actions

would you like to see Patterson there instead?

Podsednik is worse than Wells in CF, but he’d provide a better bat against RHP than Davis

by SuckaMD on Jan 22, 2011 11:59 AM EST up reply actions

Pretty lousy choice....

Having either Podsednik or Patterson platoon in CF means that most of the time you have a lousy player out there.

by Tom Dakers on Jan 22, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

But Patterson is actually around Davis' equal defensively

both have averaged to about 0RAR over their past several full seasons (Patterson more consistenly around 0 with Davis fluctuating much more) and he OPSed .794 vs RHP last season.

Davis’ splits were 784/666 (OPS v LHP/RHP) last season and 750/694 career. Patterson went 514/794 last season and 638/718 career. In both regards, Patterson is a better hitter than Davis against RHP and about a wash defensively. Patterson may be lousy, but Davis is even lousier against RHP.

I don’t like Podsednik either (I really hope we don’t get him, he’s probably a worse 4th OF than Patterson), but I think a platoon with Davis (whoever the other half is) is probably the way the numbers dictate the Jays should go.

by SuckaMD on Jan 22, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

The problem with platoon splits is assuming you’re going to be getting the correct matchup every time when really you can only make one switch per game. Realistically you’re likely going to get at least one wrong-sided match-up per game, possibly slightly more as you choose to stay with the better defender near the end of close games.

With no statistical proof to back this up, I’m going to venture a guess that we’d wind up seeing about 200 ABs (assuming no injuries, which would be equally bad with or without Wells) of Davis, SP, or CP, vs their weaker split. That’s alot of very awful ABs to watch and should probably adjust your OPS figures slightly downward. I’d say we’re looking at more like a .720 OPS from our CF spot if we platoon. With moderate defense from a premium position, that’s really not all that bad though, and I totally agree that we could live with it.

by Sivvi on Jan 22, 2011 2:39 PM EST reply actions

To follow that up

I should add that I think AA should go with your platoon plan (assuming there isn’t some amazing deal waiting at his door) and work on moving pieces to get a 3B solution and keep Jose in RF. An outfield of Snider, Davis, and Jose could be above league average if you think Jose could do better with more playing time there.

by Sivvi on Jan 22, 2011 2:41 PM EST reply actions

I don't think Bautista is likely to get much better in the outfield

though I suppose it’s possible. I also think he’ll hit the same at 3B or RF. Davis should be about a league-average centrefielder, and Jose and Snider should be significantly better than that when offensive and defensive contributions are combined.

However, I do think we can get a slight boost in production (), if we started Patterson against RH starters and gave him 2-3 AB per start in such games. Regardless of how the numbers work out, he is a better hitter than Davis against RHP and more PAs from better hitters is always better than more PAs from worse hitters. My main point is that some platoon system with Davis and Patterson could reasonably be expected to perform somewhere between slightly-better and slightly-worse than 2011 Vernon (though Vernon’s upside is obviously much higher than the platoon).

by SuckaMD on Jan 22, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

you're also ignoring napoli

who is probably a ~2.5-3 WAR player if we give him 100 starts at catcher, 50 at 1b

that’s an upgrade over even an optimistic jpa projection

by Jono411 on Jan 22, 2011 3:48 PM EST reply actions

I'd prefer a split more along the lines of

50 C, 100 combined between 1B/DH since I want JPA to develop behind the plate and Napoli’s defensive rep is worse than JPA’s. But yes, Napoli is a good hitter, likely better than Wells over a whole season this year.

by SuckaMD on Jan 22, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

I'd rather give Mastro a try against righties than Patterson

by peterzm on Jan 22, 2011 7:06 PM EST reply actions

but he's righty

bringing him up from AA and batting him exclusively against righties doesn’t sound like much of an idea to me

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 23, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

3rd Place Finish...

You have to think that if the Jays are out of the division, or WC races by the trade deadline that Napoli will become available, if he isn’t available already. AA could flip him for a few more pieces to the puzzle. I like this deal, even if we never spend all of that money again, we will spend some of it. Napoli is a good player, a good DH/1B combo and every so often to give JP a day off a decent C. I don’t think Riveria will even be in a Jays uniform come spring training, let alone opening day.

Nice job AA.

-A Fan in Japan…

by LVBlueJaysFan on Jan 22, 2011 8:01 PM EST reply actions

Where in Japan are you? I’ve been there heaps…

by JaysSaskatchewan on Jan 22, 2011 11:30 PM EST up reply actions

He's gotta be available

We have a catcher with a good bat and decent pop who may or may not have defensive issues and may or may not have a future at first base instead of behind the plate. Without checking, I think they both bat right too. Napoli is the definition of redundancy there.

At first we have a right handed hitting player with decent pop whose natural position isn’t at 1B. Again, Napoli is the picture of redundancy.

Unless we’re flip-flopping and gonna use E5 at third, Napoli is a completely redundant player in a platoon situation either way.

by Sivvi on Jan 23, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions

I agree he should be, and likely is, on the block

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 23, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

maybe

but its possible Arencibia is the one moving. Napoli is already an established power hitter, with .800+ OP in the AL West (deathplace of hitters). In the RC, i see him raking to .850+ OPS. He could stay, at least until D’arnaud comes up

To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!

by YunelTheLazyLatino on Jan 23, 2011 6:12 PM EST up reply actions

Arencibia is 25 with less than 1 year in the majors

and Napoli is 29 with 4 years in the majors, I would prefer JP as he is younger, could be producing Napoli numbers by next year and is much or cost effective (MLB minimum for next three year compared to 5.3+million for 2), but that’s just my take on this situation

by jaysfan100 on Jan 23, 2011 6:18 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by Alan F. on Jan 23, 2011 6:20 PM EST up reply actions

JPA has potential

but we have D’Arnaud and Perez in the low minors. Many raters project them to be better than JPA in the long run. If JPA can bring a good return in trade, we can keep Napoli for his 2 remaining arbitration seasons (2011+2012), then let him leave as a FA and bring up D"Arnaud or Perez

by SuckaMD on Jan 23, 2011 7:38 PM EST up reply actions

That's right

JPA does have potential. So in a year that some are calling a transition year, I want him penciled into that lineup most days. So what if the others are projected to be better, when their time comes there will be more than a few jumping on here to say we need a veteran catcher as they do not want a rookie catching if they are going to contend.

by Alan F. on Jan 24, 2011 1:53 PM EST up reply actions

Napoli owns an 11% walk rate. I’ll be damned if Arencibia can pull that off.

To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!

by YunelTheLazyLatino on Jan 23, 2011 8:59 PM EST up reply actions

no way he puts up those numbers. Your dreaming. JPA is the worst of our three catching prospects and thuss should be treated that way. He is trade bait and seeing how the jays seem reluctant on giving him a full time job.

He wont be here as a full time player. he is perfect guy to make us better at another position.

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Bullet Tooth Tony: You can call me Susan if it makes you happy.

by syc on Jan 23, 2011 8:59 PM EST up reply actions

i dunno if I'll go that far

but yes, he is definitely redundant with Napoli, and imo Napoli is the better option.

To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!

by YunelTheLazyLatino on Jan 23, 2011 9:01 PM EST up reply actions

I disagree

imo, I think it’s the other way around.

by Alan F. on Jan 24, 2011 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

Why pay more for a player with less upside?

by Sivvi on Jan 23, 2011 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

im not sure JPA can top what Napoli can produce. Decent Avg, High Power AND a good walk rate? nah

To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!

by YunelTheLazyLatino on Jan 23, 2011 9:00 PM EST up reply actions

though i hear Arencibia has a better arm than Napoli

To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!

by YunelTheLazyLatino on Jan 23, 2011 9:01 PM EST up reply actions

We have Napoli for only 2 years

at least one of which will be spent not trying to win.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Jan 24, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

Should be able to get a nice piece in return by shipping Napoli off to a team that can contend. Maybe wait until a catcher goes down and some team is stuck with a replacement-level catcher?

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jan 25, 2011 9:48 AM EST up reply actions

though, might I add,

I’d, personally, like to get the situation figured out before the season starts to give JPA the starting job this Spring. The question was more, “Do you think this is what we are doing?” than “Do you think this is what we should do?”

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jan 25, 2011 9:49 AM EST up reply actions

um

Frank Francisco and cash isn’t exactly a great peace

If you can't pay em' trade em' and pay for someone else

by jaysfan100 on Jan 25, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

Are we still considering Eric Chavez?

by Defense Counts! on Jan 22, 2011 10:41 PM EST reply actions

I'm on Kyushu

down in Sasebo, just outside of Nagasaki and about a 90 minute drive to Fukuoka and the Softbank Hawks of the Nippon Professional Baseball League.

My gut tells me that something else is up, that this deal is only half way done and that Napoli and maybe even Riveria are heading to an NL team, or maybe even back to an AL West team. I could also be paranoid…

by LVBlueJaysFan on Jan 23, 2011 4:29 PM EST reply actions

AA7 predictions are futile :) Have you been to Aso-san? It’s a pretty amazing place.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Jan 23, 2011 10:19 PM EST up reply actions

it would be funny to see Napoli traded back to Angels

the fans love him, but sciocia (sciosia?) doensn’t

To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!

by YunelTheLazyLatino on Jan 23, 2011 6:13 PM EST reply actions

Maybe we could trade them E5?

And while we’re at it, I hear there’s some great ocean-front property for sale in Manitoba that they might be interested in investing in ;)

by Sivvi on Jan 23, 2011 6:23 PM EST up reply actions

I gotta believe Alex Anthropoulos is far from "done"

I think there’s a chance Napoli could platoon with JP Arencibia, but based upon AA’s other moves, I gotta figure his plan is to trade his newest assets for something else….newer, younger, higher risk/reward.

I believe Napoli has value to AA in this regard as does Rivera to a more limited extent. The point is AA has money to spend and I believe he’s building a team for 2013 that’ll be as rich as the Rays were last year….the only difference is that he’ll likely be able to retain more pieces for as many as 5 year with his “option deals” he seems to like.

Regards,
Aaron

by Aaron F. Lukianow on Jan 23, 2011 7:08 PM EST reply actions

Let’s send the Angels management to another AA meeting. Free flights!

by JaysSaskatchewan on Jan 23, 2011 10:21 PM EST up reply actions

i agree, totally bummed about no manny for dh. bautista has to be at 3rd. no speed for the outfield, awesome arm for 3rd. has to be another bat coming in a trade to replace vernons.

by 5marcelles on Jan 23, 2011 8:03 PM EST reply actions

i’d say lind back to dh, naploi to 1st

by 5marcelles on Jan 23, 2011 8:06 PM EST reply actions

NAPOLI

will be traded or play cater (if JPA is traded) in my mind

by jaysfan100 on Jan 23, 2011 8:11 PM EST up reply actions

that would be a stupid move by AA if JPA is traded

by 5marcelles on Jan 23, 2011 8:39 PM EST reply actions

JPA’s upside is basically what Napoli can do right now with slightly better defence.
If i’m Anthopoulos, i shopping Arencibia

To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!

by YunelTheLazyLatino on Jan 23, 2011 9:03 PM EST reply actions

JPA, though

is cheaper and has 0 service time, while Napoli is already in his arb seasons. I don’t really see why JPA can’t be just about as good as Napoli (maybe a somewhat lower OBA due to lower BB-rate) but his defense is solid. JPA would be a fine starting catcher, but that said, I don’t know what they’ll do with Napoli if they do start JPA (which it definitely does not look like they’ll be doing)

by benk on Jan 24, 2011 12:52 AM EST up reply actions

Napoli as insurance

I was annoyed when we didn’t pick up Manny either. However, that makes it seem to me that we aren’t really putting much attempt in next year but going for it the year after or 2013. If we are not going for it than Napoli is fine at DH, and as back-up catcher/Ist baseman, and will be good insurance if Lind isn’t able to play 1st or JP shows he can’t make the jump to catcher, and though I would be just as happy to see him traded for a 3rd base prospect or some other shortage, I don’t think he’s the worst guy to have. He also has genuine power and may actually break through like Bautista. I don’t know if there’s any chance he could learn to play third. I like his walk rate and if he can bring his average back up to .270, a .270 BA, a .350 OBP and around 30 HR over a full season isn’t that different then what we’d expect from Bautista over the next few years. He’s redundant as a catcher, but I think useful bouncing around b/w catcher, 1st and DH.
Without Manny I think next year is about preparing for 2012, and I’d love to see what we have in Mastro, and in Rzep and Drabek.

by peterzm on Jan 23, 2011 9:34 PM EST reply actions

Can we forget about Manny already?

Manny Manny Manny… Manny WAS good; when he was on ’roids. He is not the answer for a good team in 2011 and is not as good a player as Napoli even at this stage. AA wants his DH to be able to play a position. What Manny might have been good for would have been to put casual fans in the seats- the name recognition thing; that seems to be what TB is doing to bridge the gap until their next thrust. But as far as fielding the most competitive team possible, Manny will not be missed on the Jays this year

by khaleeji on Jan 24, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions

do we need to go over this again

the guy was on pace for 3 oWAR last year in a strange season (blame him for it or don’t, whatever), 5 oWAR in 2009 and 7 oWAR in 2008. please don’t use the roids argument for everything, he’s a fantastic hitter who OBA’d over .400 even last year despite a crazy power shortage.

by benk on Jan 24, 2011 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

when Manny is putting up a ~.400 OBA with the Rays

and the Jays have noone even close to that (save Bautista, maybe), he will be missed.

by SuckaMD on Jan 24, 2011 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I’ll win a pennant every year.
Sparky Anderson.

How many players on our roster don’t have a contract to play for in 2011?

by JaysSaskatchewan on Jan 23, 2011 10:25 PM EST reply actions

I think only 3 or 4 have contracts beyond this year

Lind, Davis and Romero. Hechavarria too if you want to count him. There are a few with team options: Hill, Dotel, Rauch and EE. I might be missing someone.

by Tom Dakers on Jan 24, 2011 6:39 PM EST up reply actions

Hopefully Sparky’s theory works out. Of course, we don’t have Sparky either. Do you know if anyone has ever done a study comparing WAR in a contract year vs expected WAR?

by JaysSaskatchewan on Jan 24, 2011 6:43 PM EST up reply actions

don't quote me on this...

…but i think i saw a study a few years ago that suggested there was a small but noticeable spike in WAR for players during contract years. not sure if it was due to better performance or just getting more PAs. actually i’m not even sure if i really ever read this or just think i read it.

by Jono411 on Jan 25, 2011 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks!

by JaysSaskatchewan on Jan 25, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions

Hard to believe people here are suddenly ready to flip JPA

JPA is ready. Napoli is nothing more than another John Buck. He’ll be a good guy to have at DH against lefties, but he should be traded for the right prospect if that deal can be found. JPA’s upside is far higher than Napoli’s ever was.

by CuseJay on Jan 24, 2011 8:04 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd

If you can't pay em' trade em' and pay for someone else

by jaysfan100 on Jan 24, 2011 8:15 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

Buck has a lower OBP but is better defensively. I’d call it a wash between the two if last season for Buck isn’t a mirage.

by siggian on Jan 24, 2011 9:11 PM EST up reply actions

I really don't think a lot of people see JPA as being anything more than a Buck/Napoli type

High power, lots of Ks, low average/obp

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Jan 25, 2011 8:39 AM EST up reply actions

That being said… Buck was an all-star last year.

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by JohnnyG on Jan 25, 2011 8:50 AM EST up reply actions

Napoli isn't a low OBP hitter at all

his career OBP is a very solid .346, which especially for a catcher is well above average.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 25, 2011 9:26 AM EST up reply actions

agreed

well, other than the low obp (napoli actually has a really good one, especially for a catcher).

but really, if arencibia turns into napoli, we should all be thrilled. he’s arguably a top 5 offensive catcher (definitely top 10). think buck last year but actually getting on base.

by Jono411 on Jan 25, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions

But NAPOLISMASH doesn’t work as well.

It’s really hard to know what we have with JPA considering how much Cito messed with the kid last year. If he turns into last year’s Buck, I’d take that in a heartbeat. I think that is his baseline and he can be even better.

by siggian on Jan 25, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions

Napoli moved today

Okay, so today Napoli was moved for another decent right-handed reliever and I figure a deal for Rivera will follow along shortly…..I’m hoping for a left-handed reliever!! (wishful thinking I’m sure)

I do hope they sign Chavez to a minor league contract now with an invite to Spring Training and also sign Jason Frasor to a single year at $3.5 with two option years at $3.75 million with minimum buyouts; thus avoiding arbitration. I’m positive a deal for Bautista is receiving its final legal review over the next 48 hours.

If AA is able to trade Rivera and bring in Chavez I believe we’ll see what of our prospects can light up Spring Training and get themselves an opportunity to prove they aren’t just a prospect anymore.

Regards,
Aaron

by Aaron F. Lukianow on Jan 25, 2011 5:22 PM EST reply actions