The Season That Was: Yunel Escobar
by Tom Dakers on Oct 11, 2011 11:45 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintWe are, slowly, taking a closer look at each Jays' season. Today it is Yunel's turn. Baustista was here.
Somehow, Alex Anthopoulos was able to pick up Yunel Escobar for the baseball equivalent of some shiny beads, in the middle of the 2010 season. Yunel was having a down year and he wasn't a favorite of Braves' manager Bobby Cox, some of his teammates and Braves fans, for reasons that, after watching him play a bit, I don't get at all.
Yunel didn't have a great season with the bat, in 2010, he hit just .256/.337/.318, but then he played pretty decent defense.
Our preseason predictions were pretty optimistic. I guessed he'd hit .290/.355/.410. I'm pointing this out, because it was one of the few times I wasn't far off:
Fangraphs had him at a 4.3 WAR, giving him a value of $19.3 million for the Jays, which makes the $5 million a year contract, that Alex signed him to in the middle of the season, seem like a huge bargain. He will be making $5 million, for 2012 and 2113, and the team has $5 million options on 2014 and 2015. He must like playing here.
Comparing to 2010, Yunel walked about the same amount, 10.3% this year, 9.9% last year. He struck out a little more often, 11.9% this year, 10.1% last year. His BABIP was up a bit, .316 from .282. He hit about the same amount of line drives, 18.2%, from 18.0%. A few more ground balls, 57.2% from 53.6%. A few less fly balls, 24.7% from 28.4%. The biggest difference, was that he popped out very very little this year, 0.9% from 10.6% last year. Have to like that. I'm doubting that he can keep that up, but it was great.
Yunel hit lefties .330/.408/.522 much better than right handers, .279/.358/.382.
He hit much better at home, .321/.416/.480 than on the road. .261/.322/.349.
With RISP he hit .278/.369/.389.
By month Yunel hit:
April: .281/.336/.406
May: .317/.421/.490
June: 265/.314/.418
July: .367/.462/.443
August: .232/.293/.304
Sept: .333/.484/.500
He had his share of little injuries, the concussion early on and the pitch that got his elbow near the end of the year, as well as some bumps and bruises in between.
His favorite team to hit against? He hit .583/.615/1.000 in 3 games against the Pirates. Of the AL teams, he hit .381/.462/.524 against the Tigers. Least favorite? Yunel was just 2 for 13 in 3 games against the Reds. He hit just .153/.203/.446 in 15 games against the Rays.
Escobar's longest hitting streak was 12 games, longest on base streak was 25 games. he never went more than 3 games without a hit.
On defense, I have no complaints about him. He made 14 errors for a .974 FA (about league average) and had a UZR/150 of 2.0 (in the middle of the pack for AL SS), down from his 4.2 last year. I like him a little better than the numbers say.
Overall, a really good season for Yunel, I like him in the leadoff spot, I know Farrell said he would like to get someone else for the role but that's well down on my list of off-season concerns. I wouldn't be against him moving over to second base, at some point, to let Hechavarria play short, but I'm not sure how far in the future that will be happening. Right now he is one of my favorite Jays.
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Great read
Can we have a link to the previous players “TSTW” as well? Just don’t want to miss them.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
UZR underrates his defense
his ADR has been fantastic throughout his career
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I liked 2011 Yunel. He did a very good job at SS
But I hear the Atlanta Braves are really looking for a SS who can field, get on base and hit for some pop… only problem is that he’s got to be in awe of Chipper Jones’s greatness and pleasant personality while kissing the feet he walks on.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Oct 11, 2011 12:52 PM EDT reply actions
Tom, so far you're pretty close with your pre-season predictions on both Bautista and Escobar
Forget PECOTA or MARCEL, I’m going with DAKERS for next year’s Jays’ hitting predictions.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
fielders with good range make more errors
they’re a really awful way to compare players’ fielding ability
Exactly
More range = more chances. Those are extra chances are quite often low percentage plays and desperation throws. Just ask John McDonald.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Oct 11, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
you could ask him...
but johnny mac would reply….“whats an error?! i dont get those!”
not just more chances
but also tougher chances — the farther you have to go to get to a ball, the less time you have to throw the runner out at first
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
except when they deem hard plays a hit
because they were too hard, not all the plays where “jeter wouldn’t have attempted that” are errors, they are ruled as hits if the scorer doesn’t think it was given out
Total Internet Points: 999
by Bowling_Guy25 on Oct 11, 2011 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I know that
but if you have great range, you make “a tough play for Jeter” look easy, even though it’s not an easy play – and since you had to move far, it’s tough to get the throw on time
Except when they rush the throw and it gets away from the first baseman
in which case, at the very least, they score it a single and a one-base error. Guys with poor range rush fewer throws and, thus, have that happen to them less frequently.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Wow
Your predictions were almost exact!
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Yunel was so awesome, can't wait till next year when hes fully healthy.
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
Great write up
Tom – uncanny how accurate you were in these predictions.
I agree a true lead off man where we can move Yunel down in the order is not at the top of my off season shopping list.
I hope we are able to get a front of the rotation (#2) starter and 1 or 2 bullpen arms.
agreed
yunel is a true leadoff man. one of the, if not THE best in the game.
He’s the only leadoff hitter than doesn’t enrage me when he swings at the first pitch of the game. He always seems to get a hit when he does.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Oct 11, 2011 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
and a big bat
protection for jose would b nice
a big bat would be nice
but protection doesn’t exist. players don’t get more “pitches to hit” when there are better hitters behind them.
I think we should just give up
people are happy believing in what ever they believe in
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Or maybe the effects of protection aren't all that important
and are difficult to isolate but are still significant.
I do think people tend to overstate how important it is but it clearly exists in some form:
AL teams
batting 8th: .240 / .305 / .375, IBB: 33 of 684
NL teams
batting 8th: .246 / .315 / .359, IBB: 181 of 864 BB
Take out the intentional passes and NL OBP for 8th place batters drops to around .297. So, yes, protection does exist. 8th place hitters in the AL have it, 8th place hitters in the NL don’t.
Now, does this same rule apply higher up in the lineup?
Well, the difference in OPS between 8th (.674) and 9th (.476) place hitters in the NL is approximately 200 points. I’m not suggesting that strategy should scale linearly (partially because 9th place hitter OPS is probably very slightly inflated by pinch-hitting and partially because there’s a lot more value in intentionally walking someone who is just bad to face someone who is atrocious than there is in intentionally walking someone who is incredible to face someone who is simply only very good) but if there is a 300+ point difference in OPS between Jose Bautista (1.056) and Adam Lind (.734), I don’t see how it is more prudent to assume that protection is not a factor than it is to assume that it is one.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
NL pitchers average -78.7 batting runs per 650 PA
The comparison between 8 and 9 in the NL is just so far from the reality of any other spots in the order that I’m not sure this works as even anecdotal evidence.
If you have to use the sarcasm font, you're doing it wrong.
8th place hitters are also worse than average
Think about it this way:
Jose Bautista was 65 runs above average this year, Adam Lind was average or just slightly below.
So the difference between the average 8th place NL hitter and the average NL pitcher is roughly the same as the difference between Jose Bautista and Adam Lind (and might even be smaller, if 8th place hitters are worse than 10 runs below average, which wouldn’t terribly surprise me).
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I Didn't explain well
It’s not the absolute difference that’s the problem, I think it’s an issue of below average —> -7.5 bWAR not being representative of MVP —> mediocre or any other gap between two non-pitchers, regardless of magnitude (well, magnitudes that realistically occur).
I don’t think anyone thinks that protection doesn’t exist at all – there’s clear data that shows that batting in front of a pitcher inflates OBA – just that it doesn’t exist when the next batter is even moderately capable.
Essentially what benk says below about the .550 OPS thing.
If you have to use the sarcasm font, you're doing it wrong.
hasn't zone% been analyzed and shown to be stable, though?
that it only changes with that particular player’s skill, not the following player’s?
I'd think that methodology in a study like that would be incredibly important
you’d have to differentiate what constitutes a protected batter and what doesn’t. I don’t think you could just look at it from a continuous standpoint as the differences in wOBA because it’s unlikely a pitcher would change his behaviour for something like a 5 point difference.
As I mentioned above, there’s obviously protection for AL 8th place hitters and not for NL 8th place hitters (at least in terms of being intentionally walked or not).
I’m not saying that protection necessarily exists (and even if it does, it’s likely not terribly important in most cases) but to say that it’s been disproven is overstating findings.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I feel like I remember Baseball Between the Numbers
said protection only exists for 8th place batters (which I should’ve mentioned) but that a player who is at all competent with the bat (like .550 OPS) can protect even Barry Bonds empirically, though it sounds dumb
I have to reread a part of it for my paper
I’ll check it out tonight or tomorrow and post here or send you an email if I don’t get around to it for a while
what's the point here?
that NL 8th spot hitters get IBB’d a lot to get to the pitcher? that’s a good thing! if bautista got IBB’d every single plate appearance he’d be the best hitter in the history of the game!
although if he actually got IBBd every singe PA
then the run impact of each IBB would be slightly higher than the impact of a typical NIBB, so his true wOBA would be something like .750
No, that wasn't the point.
the point is that managers and pitchers take into account who the next batter is. I wasn’t trying to make the point that having a good hitter behind you makes you better, I was trying to make the point that being unable to demonstrate a relationship doesn’t mean that it does not exist.
And just because Mike McCoy getting intentionally walked to face the pitcher might be a good thing for the Jays, that doesn’t mean that Jose Bautista getting intentionally walked would be
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
ok well yea, obviously protection “exists”. but there’s a lot of evidence that the effect is so small as to be negligible/immeasurable.
also, in most situations where bautista is intentionally walked, it is a good thing for us. there are very few situations where it is actually correct to walk a non-barry bonds hitter.
I don't know that Bautista getting intentionally walked was necessarily a good thing
for us this year.
Personally, I am not a fan of intentionally walking players in general, but 1) I could be wrong about that; and 2) Adam Lind was pretty mediocre and Juan Rivera was downright atrocious
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
sure it does
teams wont constantly walk him if theres another dominant hitter in the lineup…basically the team just needs another big bat so jose isnt the only driving force
the theory is fine
except that in real life, analysis has shown that it doesn’t actually make any difference. Adrian Gonzalez moved from a horrible hitting team (Padres) to a superlative hitting team (Red Sox) and yet still saw fewer fastballs than he did in San Diego
Just give it up, dude.
I have.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Yep
Protection will give Jose fewer intentional walks but won’t help his batting stats save for a few extra RBI here and there. They will still pitch to him the same way. What it will do is punish teams for pitching around him (the ol’ unintentional intentional walk) like when Lind came off the DL like a man possessed. I don’t care if Babe Ruth is hitting behind Jose, they are still not going to throw him fastballs down Broadway.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Oct 11, 2011 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
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