The Season that Was: Adam Lind
by Tom Dakers on Oct 12, 2011 12:12 PM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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You know the line 'if you don't have anything nice to say...you are probably a bogger'. Unfortunately there is very little nice to say about Adam Lind's season. It was terrible in so many ways. Someone, on our last podcast, said that 'his defense was good'. Which, to me, is likely the ultimate insult for a first baseman. If you are noticing that a first baseman's defense is good, he probably isn't having a good season. He was Jay player of the month in June and for a bit there we all thought we had the real Adam Lind back. Now we are wondering if this is the real Adam Lind
Adam had a terrible 2010 season but most of us were pretty optimistic that this year would be better. Me? I should just ignore my guess but here it is:
My guess: 525 at bats. .285/.360/.525 line. 27 homers and 85 RBI.
He actually hit:
Do I get points for being only 1 off on homers and 2 off on RBI? No? I hate that OBP, first baseman have to get on base more than 30% of the time, a .295 OBP isn't going to cut it.
Fangraphs has him at a 0.5 WAR, givign him a value of $2.2 million to the Jays. We have him signed for 2 more seasons at $5 million a year, with 3 club options after that.
Comparing to last year Lind walked a little less (5.9% from 6.2%) but that was a lot worse than his 8.9% back in 2009. He struck out less than last year (19.7% from 23.5%) but again that is worse than his 16.8% in 2009. He hit more line drives than ever before in his career, 21.8% up from 18.7% last year. Same number of ground balls, 40.0% from 40.9%. About the same number of fly balls, 38.3 from 40.4%. He popped out a lot more than he has in the past (10.5% from 4.6% last year).
His BABIP was .265, before his career mark of .295, so maybe he was having a little bit of bad luck, considering he was hitting a good number of line drives, but he was popping up a bunch too. I'd guess that, next year, he'll be up a bit from that.
Adam didn't hit lefties at all, .243/.275/.364, and was all that great against RHP, .253/.303/.468.
He hit the same at home, .251/.295/.453 as on the road, .250/.295/.426.
With RISP he hit .257/.314/.500, not too bad really.
By month Adam hit:
April: .274/.308/.434.
May: .500/.522/.909.
June: .311/.385/.644.
July: .210/.265/.314
August: .196/.209/.336.
September: .203/.253/.377.
If it was a marathon, you'd say he hit the wall July 1st. He was injured for most of May, he played just 6 games. I wonder if his back was bothering him in the second half of the season. If it was he should have gone on the DL. A guy hitting under .200 for half a season really shouldn't be playing first. Or batting cleanup for that matter. On the 'fun fact' ledger, Adam hit cleanup in 119 games, and hit 3rd and 5th in 3 games each.
His favorite team to hit against? Tigers, .300/.361/.900 in 3 games or Yankees, .345/.377/.618 in 14 games. Least favorite? "He went 0 for 9 against the White Sox.
Longest hitting streak: 11 games. Longest on base streak: 11 games. Longest stretch without a homer: 20 games. He had 2 grand slams. Longest hitless streak was 5 games.
On defense, he looked pretty good to me. He made 4 errors for a .996 FA. Fangraphs gives him a -3.3 UZR/150. How much value to put into UZR for first basemen, I'm not sure but I'd say he was about average or a little better than average in the field.
It was a bad year. We have him signed for 2 more seasons, and I don't really see the team eating his contract. I have a hard time seeing that he has much for trade value either. I think he has to be platooned at first base, let him and Edwin share the position and move EE to DH against RHP. Or something, but to continue to run Adam out there against lefties would be a bad thing. I'd like to think the team is too smart for that, but I need some proof. He has to walk more, he has to be more selective at the plate. He has to be better or someone else has to be tried at first.
Could he have a year like 2009 again? Sure. He had a pretty good first half to this season. Maybe he could hit like that all season. Maybe something physical happened at mid-season. But I don't think I'd bet on him having a good year.
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Who is supposed to DH when EE is playing first? All our other internal options are left-handed as well: Loewen, Cooper, Snider, Thames. Rajai Davis might make a little sense on occasion, if we still have him come April 1.
Indeed
Although this article is a strong cautionary tale.
I honestly don’t know what I am hoping for.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
if he signs for, like, 5/100
that’s not an albatross unless he somehow falls off a cliff, which I don’t see happening given that he’ll only be 32 in 2015. if it takes 7/140, I’m not interested, but the marginal upgrade over Lind is substantial
I don’t disagree on 5/100 (I think that’s a reasonable gamble), but I have to think there is are at least 2 teams (Cards, Cubs) that would go higher than that, especially since the other one would have probably missed out on Pujols.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
yeah, could be
I think I’d do 6/125 also. any more than that and I’d be pretty uneasy , though if we went crazy and got Darvish too and re-signed KJ, it’d be pretty exciting
would you be unhappy if the Jays signed him to the Ryan Howard contract?
5/125
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
not really
it’s paying 20M more than we’re paying Lind for a 4 or more win increase. that’s fair, though still a big contract. if he was a 6 win DH in the NL this year (doesn’t lose value from defense) let’s call him a 5 win DH in the AL East, which is a very solid upgrade and fills a serious hole for us. as well, it allows us to use EE/Lind (or Thames I suppose) as platoon 1B/bench bats/spot starters, a position in which I think they’d excel. Lind had a nice batted ball line even in 2011 against RHP, and Edwin has a career .365 wOBA vs. LHP. I wouldn’t mind jettisoning Lind, but I’d bet we don’t do that
I wouldn't be unhappy per se
but I doubt that gets it done. Didn’t Fielder turn down that exact extension from the Brewers last offseason?
That is probably not going to give you full value over the contract, but won’t be an albatross either.
given that the Jays are in a situation
that each marginal win is worth more to them than, say, the Orioles, wouldn’t the marginal benefit of each win be magnified? since each win gets them closer and closer to playoff contention, meaning more attendance and whatnot. thoughts?
Difference between Fielder and Lind not worth the $ imo
Even if the difference between Fielder and Lind is 4 or more wins I’d hardly think that was fair if my name was Jose Bautista. If it was Pujols I could see the players accepting someone making 30% of the payroll but I really believe Fielder would create problems in the clubhouse with the 22 to 27M that he will command.
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
I'm actually stunned this is a thing
are Roy Halladay or Shane Victorino complaining that Ryan Howard (who’s not even close to the player Fielder is) is making so much more than them?
That's obviously why they lost against the Cardinals
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
If the Boston Globe were writing about it
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
fried chicken and video games!
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
The only thing I could see being a problem is the conditioning of the starters
Maybe that makes them a little less injury prone and have better stamina in September. Other than that, it was just revisionist history.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I meant
primarily because it was all unsourced claims fed by the owners to slag Francona and Epstein on the way out.
If they had made the playoffs, I guarantee that the video games and pizza would’ve been a sign of good chemistry rather than a lackadaisical attitude.
They also get on Ellsbury and Gonzalez for, what, maybe lacking some intangibles?
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
The Ellsbury and Gonzalez parts were the worst
Although, I hope Jacoby hates their guts. I’d like to see him leave Boston come free agent time. I think you’re right about the owners slagging Francona and Epstein on the way out, it seems to be the Boston way when they’re done with guys.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Halladay and Victorino poor example to use
Howard was there before Victorino and Halladay doesn’t apply because as a pitcher there’s a different mind-set, if not a different pay scale.
Visit Bautista’s agent website and the first thing you see under Baseball is a Jerry Maguire’ish slogan of “Get Paid”. Regardless of how professionally Bautista would react to a Fielder signing, there’s a chance that Bean Stringfellow would resent a Scott Boras client coming in and making twice what his client makes, especially since Bautista provides more defensive value to the club.
You asked for my “thoughts” but then ridicule them.
For you to say you’re “stunned” at this train of thought but then provide a failed reason is arrogant. For Pikachu to chime in with a funny makes it even more dismissive of my opinion.
Tom has stepped in before and asked you to be a little less confrontational (my paraphrasing) but you seem intent on moderating posts on bbb so I’ll think really hard next time before taking your bait.
I leave this retweet from KLaw as a parting gift;
Remember kids- when unable to write clearly or eloquently to defend an unoriginal premise- resort to cheap shots!
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
by chewbalka on Oct 13, 2011 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Tom has also said
don’t write if you can’t handle criticism or disagreement or if you take it personally, so, you know, goes both ways here.
Regarding this salary absurdity:
First off, read this comment
Now, to add to that:
1) Fielder is 2.5 years younger than Bautista was when he signed his deal, which is massively important.
2 Salaries inflate over time.
3) It’s not really an issue of what Stringfellow thinks – Bautista is already signed to a contract.
3a) Shouldn’t he resent Boras for getting his clients more money?
3b) Shouldn’t he be upset with himself for getting his clients less money?
3c) An agent who markets himself as being money-focused? Shocker. Definitely necessarily a representation of the type of person he is rather than, maybe, good marketing. I don’t know one way or the other, neither do you, but to draw conclusions from a tagline on a website is silly.
3d) Shouldn’t he be a rational human being and understand that the two players are not exactly the same with exactly the same circumstances leading to this point in time, and thus they are not necessarily deserving of the same contracts?
Regarding your post itself rather than the conversation as a whole:
4) I don’t know what you think “ridiculing” is, but disagreeing and then providing an example where it does not hold true is hardly ridiculing. People are allowed to use language more colourful than “I disagree because…” to indicate a level of disagreeance. It’s not a crime, it’s just language.
4a) Stating that the Halladay thing doesn’t apply for a reason you’ve decided on without providing any solid proof is really no better than what you accuse benk of doing. Not that I think your point is necessarily wrong, but I mean if you’re going to go all self-righteous on someone, wouldn’t it make sense to at least 1-up the level of effort you perceived them to have put in?
5) Despite what people may believe, Pikachu and benk are not the same person. Attempting to implicate one for the actions of the other is ridiculous.
5a) Two people who have disagreed with you in the past (well, three now that I’m here) disagree with you again – it must be a coordinated attack to discredit your opinions!
5b) Oh no, someone made a wisecrack. It’s as much his right to be dismissive of an opinion as it is yours to state one since, after all, disagreeing with an opinion is still stating an opinion. Perhaps he didn’t want to be bothered to sink 10 minutes into rehashing something that has already been covered since at least early August, neither of us know for sure. That’s not to say that I think that you necessarily should have read the pertinent comments/FanPosts, but that it’s his prerogative to not type out a full response, especially since he wasn’t responding to you, but rather to benk.
6) Regarding this apparent victimization complex, go read the final two sentences of this comment
7) It’s hilariously ironic that you’ve got on us a few times for “moderating posts” and “be[ing] confrontational” when, well, this.
8) Important: This.
/Sorry Tom et al.
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
Seriously Gerse?
Thanks for linking to my comment. You only prove my point with your suggestion i have some sort of a victimization complex.
Back in reality-world, all i was suggesting with my comments on the weekend is that there are a group of people on this site that are automatically dumping all over anyone who
a) uses a statline they don’t like (like Ribbies and HR’s as opposed to OPS or fWAR)
b) suggests a trade scenario that might seem too good to be true (Gee who saw Vernon Wells getting traded last offseason? It happens so deal with it) or
c) takes issue with a player that one of the usual suspects idolizes for no known reason (this used to happen a lot with Aaron Hill)
So, fair enough if you think I have a victimization complex, Gerse, but all i was asking for was a bit more respect to be shown not to me but to other posters who might be coming on here for the first time. By going and blatantly disrespecting my casual comment of simply calling for more respect you have proven my own words. Thank you, and have a great day!
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Oct 13, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Tom
looks like we are going to need another post on the main page somewhere
its getting pretty nasty around here again
Total Internet Points: 999
by Bowling_Guy25 on Oct 13, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I find it interesting that
the nasty comments (for both sides) have evolved from “you jerk” to paragraph long responses.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
i don't mind that lol
i like that people aren’t saying “meh lulz” “you jerk”
I like when people speak their mind, but there are clearly some issues being brought up that need addressed
Total Internet Points: 999
by Bowling_Guy25 on Oct 13, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
"Won't somebody please think of the children!"
I think Pikachu’s right, at least we’re discussing our disagreements at length like adults. I mean, if Pikachu and I can agree, then there’s hope for us all.
Now, Gerse and TrueBlue4Ever!, hug it out!
/crosses arms
//taps foot
///still waiting
Seriously though, Bowling Guy is right, no need to make things personal here.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
To be fair
Everything I do is paragraph long responses
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
by Gerse on Oct 13, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That is true, Gerse, you are quite the wordsmith
Like the new sig by the way.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Wait, what?
I linked to dexfarkin’s comment, not yours.
There’s a bit of an issue with the software in that when you link to a comment it sometimes misses by a bit.
I didn’t actually realize you were the one who responded to this rather than chewbalka. What I was saying had nothing to do with what you said.
Can someone confirm that I did, in fact, link to dexfarkin’s comment please?
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
Just hug it out with everybody
Dexfarkin, Chewbalka, all of them. You too Benk.
/crosses arms
//taps foot
///still waiting for you guys to hug it out
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Nice firm handshake then
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
#tallpeopleproblems
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Seriously,
I’m terribly, terribly confused.
The linking also had nothing to do with the comment that preceded the one I linked to (ie yours), merely the sentiment in the final two lines of the one I actually did link to.
I’m not sure where this whole thing came from.
Sorry you somehow got dragged into this.
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
To reiterate
The victimization thing was directed solely at this
You asked for my "thoughts" but then ridicule them.
For you to say you’re "stunned" at this train of thought but then provide a failed reason is arrogant. For Pikachu to chime in with a funny makes it even more dismissive of my opinion.
Tom has stepped in before and asked you to be a little less confrontational (my paraphrasing) but you seem intent on moderating posts on bbb so I’ll think really hard next time before taking your bait.
since it’s happened a few times before.
It had absolutely nothing to do with your comment in the other thread.
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
Thanks Gerse, the links worked and clarified everything
Benk is a Troll, Pikachu is his Square John, and they’ve retained you for legal council.
/Sorry Tom et al.
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
by chewbalka on Oct 13, 2011 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm looking over my shoulder now that I've ratted you guys out as the bbb mafia
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
Hey
How come I’m the Square John? It’s obvious that I’m the troll and benk is the sidekick.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
'cause you're the funniest one by far....
even if I think of you as an annoying ankle-biter ;-)
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
I don't want to get into this, really
since it’s gone far past what I intended – sorry I offended you, but: one, I honestly think it’s a ludicrous idea that can’t be demonstrated at all (that doesn’t mean I think you’re stupid), and two, you didn’t really answer the question I posed to Jono.
How about far-fetched instead of ludicrous?
Thanks for not thinking I’m stupid…..I didn’t think you were all smelly and gross looking when I called you a troll either.
You lost me on the Jono question though as his first reply was to my salary absurdity (thanks for that Gerse – boo) with “yea i really doubt it makes any difference to the other players”. For the record, I found his sarcasm funny but did feel that yours was personal.
Oh well, what was the question again? :)
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
salary absurdity, ie. can't be demonstrated at all
back peddling hard here because all I could think of was how unpopular Bonds was in the clubhouse and of course that had nothing to do with salary
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
all I mean is
yeah, it’s possible that it could cause issues, but:
a) if it did, I’d imagine that’d be an extension of some much more deeply-rooted chemistry issues than just “hey, I’m better than you and you’re making more money than I am” (because that would be pretty disgusting for a professional to say), and
b) I’d definitely think the more winning caused by having better players, even if they make a lot of money, would easily offset the unrest caused by their big contracts
I'm pretty sure Bonds was unpopular in the clubhouse
because he was a jerkface
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
just saying
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I don’t think players in professional sports often openly complain about player issues (e.g. salary, chemistry, etc.) but like any other career field if you outperform a co-worker routinely and he makes twice as you do, resentment can build up.
by Matthew Mueller on Oct 14, 2011 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions
I tend to agree with you here
in terms of resentment. I think ego is a huge part of why player salaries are so high. They are defining their own values based on their salaries and that’s why they push for the most money.
That said, I don’t know that that resentment necessarily makes the individual players play any worse, which means that I don’t know that it should affect the team at all.
Part of being a professional is not letting the fact that the other guy makes more money than you (even though he is accomplishing less on the field) affect your performance. But I think you’re absolutely right that it does breed resentment.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I'm pretty sure....
Any deal you want to do, the Brewers would do too.
For us to pry him north of the boarder, we are talking about a $160 m deal at the very least.
.313/.400/.565
True
But it would depend on what Fielder wants. I think it would be a better idea for Fielder to go with a shorter contract, something like 5, perhaps 6 year deal, so he’s got a chance for another big payday. If he gets an 8 year deal, I’m not sure if he’ll get another big contract after.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
He would likely...
Pull an A-Rod or Sabathia and have an opt out clause I would think….
.313/.400/.565
my point being that
If Fielder wanted to go with a shorter, but more dollars/year contract, I’m not sure the Brewers could afford him
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
True...
But I think it’ll go like most contract negotiations and come down to who is willing to add those extra years.
If he wants that second pay day, I think he would go the route of the opt out clause after 4 years or so.
.313/.400/.565
Re: opt out clauses
I’m not exactly sure how common they are. Do most multi-year contacts have them?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
So they aren't common
Know which players have them right now? I know our friend Vern had one (lol)
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Sabathis has one. Burnett had one and used it (thankfully)
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 12, 2011 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Soriano has one too, surprisingly
I’m trying to dig up some more info
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
More
Posada had one in 2004
Mike Scioscia has one in 2015, funnily enough
Wells, as you mentioned
CC, ARod and Burnett are the only others I see.
A lot of older fringe guys on 1 year deals have opt outs that vest if they’re not on the Major League roster at the end of the pre-season and a couple GMs have opt outs that vest if the team is sold, but the 6 above (+Soriano) are the only ones who can exercise opt outs unilaterally.
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
ok Tom, now this is getting a little eerie
You were off on the triple slash line, but so close on the HRs and RBIs.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Giving a .251/.295/.439 hitter 119 games hitting cleanup
barf.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
It's kind of funny that Farrell got a lot of crap for sticking Patterson and then Thames in the two-hole for so much of the season.
But it seems rare that anyone even brings up Lind hitting cleanup all year.
I guess his hot streak was able to mask his terrible every other part of the season most of the year.
As nice as it would be to see Lind regain his form from 2009, especially given the way his contract is structured, at this point I feel like he's been given every opportunity anyone can reasonably give a player to establish themselves.
The internal options to replace him aren’t exactly the greatest (to say the least), the free agent market is notorious for overpaying first basemen to the point of insanity and it’s impossible to know what options exist through trade, but there still doesn’t seem to be much of any justification left for not at least trying to upgrade at first heading into 2012. Even if it means seeing what you have in Cooper, just about anything seems like wiser asset management than trotting out a guy who’s been replacement level the last two seasons in hopes of him regaining a form he’s only ever shown once in the past. It’s unfortunate that Lind has performed the way he has, but I’m not sure there’s any reason for optimism that he’ll improve at this point.
Exactly
Anthopoulos said from the start that he would give the incumbents a reasonable chance to show him what they can do so Lind and Hill had the same “audition” over the last two years.
We all know what happened to Hill so you have to think that Lind is on very thin ice and facing a platoon situation at the very least.
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
NOOOOOOOO!
As much as I would love Votto in Toronto, the price to get him would be too high right now. We can’t have AA fall into the same traps as Ricciardi by adding top end talent before the rest of the pieces are in place. The team can’t go out and get the big player until they are almost certain he will put them over the top.
2013.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Oct 12, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree
Votto will cost us high prospects (think Drabek and Snider) with another MLBer (LIND, EE, THAMES, or CECIL, etc), but consider that you would be getting a YOUNG AND PROVEN MLB TALENT, and wouldn’t you love to have him bat before Bautista?
by Marcos Montenegro on Oct 12, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
only one of those six players you mentioned
has any trade value whatsoever. Drabek, Lind, Snider and Cecil are coming off a brutal season, Cincinnati can’t use a DH, and Thames is a decent-hit, negative-glove corner outfielder. you’re absolutely insane if you think even ALL SIX of those GUYS WILL GET THAT deal done.
OK Benk- Tell us what will it take?
by Marcos Montenegro on Oct 12, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm guessing Cincinatti asks for Romero and Lawrie
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
and if so, Cincinnati can go jump in a lake
‘cause that’s bloody ridiculous. Lawrie is unambiguously more valuable than Votto from a trade perspective.
Votto has been the best player in the NL for two straight years
I don’t see how the Reds don’t give him up except for an overpay, which would be silly for the Jays
Replace D'Arnaud with somebody else
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I think Romero, Marisnick, McGuire, and Thames was what BigRedMachine asked for
And, really, it’s a pretty fair(ish) deal. I might do it if we can get Wilson for cheap and extend Votto
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
oh, I don't know
because of Romero, that’s a bit much I think. When you throw in an All Star starter on a team friendly contract, that’s got to lower your expectations in terms of prospects? Maybe take either Marisnick or McGuire out. Even in the Halladay trade, which was considered a pretty fair deal, there weren’t any major leaguers involved, let alone star major leaguers.
Romero was like the 6th replacement pick for All-Star
and he finished short of 3 WAR. let’s not use All-Star as a good demonstrator of value
Romero was underrated by FIP
and thus by fWAR.
by statcorner WAR (tRA-based) he was 3.4 WAR
I tend to think tRA also slightly underrates Romero because it assumes his HR/fly-rate wasn’t partially due to bad luck.
I’d think Romero was probably around a 4 win player this year. Maybe not all-star, but darn close and, considering his contract, incredibly valuable.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
by jessef on Oct 12, 2011 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
rWAR calls All-Star 5+ WAR, probably similar for fWAR (though maybe 4.75 based on your research)
but the more elite you go, the more scarce players of that calibre become. it’s exponentially more difficult to find a 7 win player than a 4 win player, as much as I love Romero. doesn’t mean I’d do the deal, though
will explain this all in a post tomorrow
the comment was getting way too long
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
now that I think about it
it might be proportionally more difficult and not exponentially, but it’s still quite a bit harder
It may be ridiculous, but that's probably what they will ask
Remember the insanity regarding Justin Upton last year? Sure, Upton has more controlled years but Votto is a proven commodity leading the NL in hitting two years straight.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
woah justin upton had like 3 times the trade value that votto has
6 years of team control at a total of $50 million vs. 2 years of team control at a total of $30 million. didn’t project to be quite as good per year, but 4 extra years way offsets it.
i would’ve sold the farm to get upton. votto, not so much.
Upton didn't have Votto's track record
Votto is a known commodity right now, Upton wasn’t last year. His cost-controlled years make him roughly equal to Votto’s proven output.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
no way
if you project votto at 6 WAR for the next two years, and project (as of last offseason) upton averaging ~3.5 WAR per year for the next 6 years (keep in mind he’d put up 5 and 3 WAR seasons, and wouldn’t be hitting peak age for another 5 years, so this is definitely a conservative projection), then upton’s value blows votto’s out of the water.
I know you love your surplus value
but in general, I think you specifically underrate exceptional performance over a short period of time relative to good-to-very-good performance with greater team control. there’s something to be said for a championship window, as opposed to sustained “good” as the Jays have done
but that's the only reasonable way to look at it
because you can allow different teams to have different discount rates of future wins vs. present wins (ie players with different contract structures have different relative values to different teams). i mean, that’s the only reason trades are able to happen in the first place – generally teams trade current value for future value. the overall value of the two sides of the deal tend to be more or less equal, because if they weren’t, it’s likely that one of the other 28 teams would offer a better deal.
the only reason it’s not always a perfect translation is because with only 30 teams you don’t have a perfectly efficient market. but it almost always comes very close.
no it's not
you can also use surplus value while adjusting – qualitatively or quantitatively – how much each team values that surplus value. if the Red Sox overpay for Carl Crawford (assume for a second he’s not awful), even if they pay more than he’s worth, given the scarcity of marginal wins to the Sox it could still be worth it. looking at the trades in a vacuum isn’t always reasonable, IMO
but let’s say that players are basically going for $5 million per projected WAR in free agency. if it would cost the Red Sox $7 million per projected WAR to sign Crawford, then they shouldn’t do it, even if he would generate more than that amount of revenue. the reason is because they could just spend that money on other free agents who won’t cost as much for WAR.
now i agree that it doesn’t work perfectly in practice, just because there are only ~16 important roster spots and only 30 teams, but it’s still close.
going back to the crawford example, if he would’ve cost them way more than the market’s $5 million per WAR, maybe they’re better off signing beltre for only $5 million per WAR. or maybe they trade for Reyes instead of AGon, and save the crawford money for the next off-season and use it on Fielder/Pujols. unless you’ve exausted all other possibilities, it’s really tough to justify paying significantly more or less than the market rate for wins.
I think his point
which you may be getting at in your 2nd part, but I’m not sure, is that the better your team is to begin with, the scarcer the supply of upgrades, which should force up the marginal value of wins (to the better teams) from elite players.
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
yea i definitely agree
but even a team like the red sox right now has holes in the rotation, catcher, SS, RF, DH. that’s 5 roster spots. surely it makes no sense to overpay in free agency/trade to fill one of those because they should be able to find a better deal to fill a different one (or combination of other ones).
maybe the yankees would qualify as a team that could justify overpsending on pitching because they don’t really have any obvious places where they could upgrade. maybe the phillies too. but i don’t think any other team is in that position.
Fair enough
I assume a tiny bit of it is pressure from the fan base. Not that it should matter – especially in a city guaranteed to sell out every game either way – but it does seem to have some impact.
To be fair to the Sox, at the start of the last offseason I don’t think they perceived there to be that many holes.
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
true about the Sox. but they didn’t overpay for crawford (in terms of his expected production at the time).
and if they didn’t think they could’ve signed crawford for an amount they thought he was worth, i don’t think they would’ve made the a-gon trade. i think they re-sign beltre, keep youk at 1B, and then try to swing a trade(s) to fill their holes in OF or C. at the very least, i definitely don’t think they would’ve overpaid crawford.
I got blasted on MLBTR for saying this
thank you.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
It makes sense given the demands for Upton last year
Must be a lot of Jays fans on MLBTR thinking we can get Votto for spare parts.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Exactly
People have to see that the Reds absolutely have to be winning the trade to actually trade Votto. The amount of garbage they take from their fanbase for trading Votto is definitely a factor.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I put too much into debating this.
If the Reds need a clear “win” rather than fair value for their asset, the Jays shouldn’t do a thing. Some of these packages are completely ridiculous.
Probably, yeah
The Jays will get fleeced if they do this trade. Even the trade I posted above (Romero, McGuire, Marisnick, Thames) hurts the system a lot. It’s really not worth it in my opinion.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
That's why...
Deals like that don’t rarely happen.
.313/.400/.565
except
upton was a 22 year old all-star level player with 6 cheap years of team control left, and potential to be a historically great player.
votto is a 28 year old with 2 not quite as cheap years of team control.
votto clearly projects better right now than upton did last offseason, but not by enough to offset the contracts. take whatever you think votto is worth, and double it. that’s what upton was worth last offseason.
Even if you package Drabek, Snider, Lind, EE, Thames, AND Cecil
it’s doubtful whether the Reds take that offer.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Do Lind, Drabek and Thames even have trade value?
Forget Votto for a moment. Looking at Fangraphs at the leaders in WAR this year, realistically could we get any of the top 50 WAR players for 2011 with these 3 players? I don’t think so. Sure, we got basically got Drabek for Halladay but at this point, i don’t think he has any trade value for him. Nobody is taking Lind at 5 million a year (especially with potential back problems which is not a good thing for a power hitter) and every team has guys like Thames in their systems. I don’t even know why these guys are mentioned in any potential trade with the Reds. I don’t see the Reds saying “Well we like this package with Snider, Cecil and Encarnacion looks pretty good but you know, Lind and Drabek are the deal breakers.” To me, its like you have a 2008 Maserati Gran Turismo with a blue book value of $110,000. I’m trying to get you to trade it to me for a couple of 2002 Honda Civics, a couple of 2003 Ford Focus and then just to sweeten the deal, i throw a 1/2 dozen 1995 Buick Park Avenue into the deal. The Reds ain’t trading Votto for a bunch of turds even if its a dozen of them.
"What's so special about Lou Gehrig? Shouldn't EVERY Yankee have a disease named after him? "
by Sean Coleman on Oct 12, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Drabek and Thames are valuable
in that both are young and cost controlled, but they haven’t shown much to be significant parts in a trade. If Drabek was performing as we expected him to, he’d be very valuable.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
if Drabek was peforming as expected...
some of these dillusional Jays fans wouldn’t be packaging him in the trade. Apparently we are going to get Votto for a bunch of players who aren’t in our 2014 playoff run plan because i suppose nobody in the Reds front office follows baseball.
"What's so special about Lou Gehrig? Shouldn't EVERY Yankee have a disease named after him? "
by Sean Coleman on Oct 12, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I love Drabek
..and if I didn’t believe in his potential he wouldn’t have even been brought up as trade bait.
The truth is, I don’t want to part with the likes of Henderson Alvarez or Brett Lawrie, but you have to give up talent in order to get it, so if it takes them and other players get me Votto, so be it, as long as we have the depth in that position.
Ok, how about Alvarez and JP Arencibia and Yunel Escobar?
by Marcos Montenegro on Oct 12, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
They have mesoraco, who will most likely be better than Arencibia
Alvarez and Escobar are good starting points. Alvarez, Escobar, and another good prospect would work, imo.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I agree
and that works well for the master plan at SS (Hech). Alvarez I have a feeling is going to be a monster starter, so I would hate to part with him, HOWEVER, Votto is a home TO boy, so just think of how many fans will get exited about the VOTTO-LAWRIE-BAUTISTA combo.
by Marcos Montenegro on Oct 12, 2011 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
no one got excited about Koskie
nor did they get excited about Delgado or Halladay. fans like winning, not homegrown players. Hech is not the master plan until he learns to hit, which he hasn’t yet. not even close.
waste of prospects
for what it would take to trade for Votto you could get almost anyone in the league. Trade for someone like Kemp or a frontline starter..then just sign one of the free agent first basemen who are arguably as good as Votto.
Votto is one of the best players in the league regardless of position, though
that said, I agree that it makes more sense to give up no assets (besides first-rounder) and get Fielder than a tonne of assets and get Votto
OT raining in detrioit
cancelled batting practice, may reschedule game for later tonight
Total Internet Points: 999
Hard to give up on him still
In 2009 he won a silver slugger and was one of the best hitters at any position for any team. If you ask me, it was the best non-Carlos Delgado hitting season this team has seen since the 80’s. Except for maybe Vernon Wells in 2003.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
LOL
Speaking of Teahan, is the collective thinking that he’s going to have a roster spot just because the Blue Jays are on the hook for 5.5 million next year?
by Marcos Montenegro on Oct 12, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
probably
I don’t see the point; I’d rather see if the Jays can trade him for a PTBNL or something (I doubt they can) or just jettison him for the roster spot. he’s negative value anyway
D'oh!
I hope Teahan retires.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Oct 12, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really, he probably gets DFA'd
His main purpose was salary relief for the White Sox. The Jays can eat the last year of his contract.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
that's what I'm hoping
but if he stays on the 25 man roster, it limits options
he'll be at Spring Training
maybe he plays well enough to be a bench guy. Maybe some other team gets an injury and needs someone to fill in and we’re able to trade him (give him away for partial salary relief). I think he’s on a shorter leash than Juan Rivera, and wouldn’t be surprised if he’s DFA’d at the end of ST.
Contract status didn’t save Juan Rivera.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Oct 12, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
lulz
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
If I may
I’m in favour of keeping Adam Lind around. He did hit 26 homers in an injury-shortened season while adjusting to a new position. Even if he only had an OBP of .295, he drove in 87 runs. Those are not terrible production numbers. I’m not totally certain we’re ready to compete next year, and until we are, I’d rather we not make any high-impact moves at first base, i.e. Pujols/Fielder. Give him one more year. He now has a full season of first baseman-ship under his belt. Until we get our rotation figured out, (I’m still holding out hope for Drabek) we aren’t competing anyway.
Here's my attempt at a witty sig. Didn't really go so well, methinks.
Wise men wonder, while strong men die.
If you ate this Thanksgiving, thank your local turkey farmer.
Even if he hits +30 homers in a full season
if he can only hit .251/.295/.439, that’s awful.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
He only hit 16 doubles
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
It gets worse if you go from 2010-2011. If you rank Lind against all 1B between 2010 and 2011, he’s dead last for those who have qualifying PA with -.3 WAR, and a 723 OPS. And yeah, Lind wasn’t a 1B in 2010 but as a DH he should still hit comparably to other 1B.
He doesn’t walk, he doesn’t hit for power (188 ISO over that time) compared to other 1B. Lind was at his best in 09 when he was taking pitches and spraying the ball all over the field (I believe his wOBA was highest to opposite field in 09). This year he had a 1.085 OPS for pull and 622 OPS for opposite field. Meanwhile in 09 he hit 1.00+ OPS in every spot, and was 1.154 hitting to opposite field.
I wouldn’t bet on Lind rebounding because this is now 2 years where he’s looked lost, and his numbers have gone from horrendous to replacement level. But if Lind wants to rebound, it’ll be because he’s hitting the ball with authority to LF and CF again. I’m not gonna look through how other teams pitched him, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the reason for his struggles are that everyone throws on the outside part of the plate and he just tries to pull it.
I've checked his pitch f/x
Pitchers haven’t changed the way they locate against Lind. Even back in 2009 they were pitching him away. The major difference I see is the lack of fastballs they’re throwing at him and his increase in Swing% and O-Swing%
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Give Lind another chance
I do attribute something of his poor 2nd half to his nagging back. Now, that doesn’t excuse Lind entirely – his conditioning is his responsibility, after all – but it does mean there’s a little more reason to be optimistic about Lind next year, as I expect he’ll come into camp in shape to handle a full season. Also, that .265 BABIP screams unlucky to me, especially given his strong LD%. I did tend to think this season that Lind was getting unlucky on his balls in play.
He may not be the long-term answer at first, but given his contract and ability, we should be happy to give Lind another season at first. AA should have tell him to be more selective, though, and he shouldn’t start out batting cleanup.
then to what are we attributing 2010?
you’re right that he experienced some bad BABIP luck, but he also popped out a lot this year, which can have serious negative implications on a player’s BABIP
2010 just really sucked.
As for his pop-out rate, it was high for him, but right around league average, so we should still anticipate a league average BABIP.
fine, the back issues
but he has been legitimately good for 2 of the past twelve months. and we plan to compete with him in the lineup every day?
well, to be fair
the 2 spot is more important than cleanup
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
though Thames was better too
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I wouldn’t say the 2 spot is more important than the 4. Those are still two of your top 3 hitters in the lineup, along with your leadoff guy.
Which is why it’s so frustrating to have Bautista hit third.
the 2nd hitter gets way more AB/PAs than the 4th hitter
I think the importance getting more chances to bat outweighs the potential of having men on base.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
okay, not way, but more
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
can someone confirm this?
I forget the difference in # of AB each spot in the lineup makes on average
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
20 PAs?
really? I thought it was more. guess not
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
There's also the fact that the #2 hitter
hits in front of more good hitters than the #4 hitter so he has a better chance to score after he gets on base
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I really like how Granderson hits 2nd in the Yankees lineup
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I honestly believe that Girardi writes in Jeter in the 9 spot on his lineup card and all the umps have a mutual understanding that the Yankees have to start from the 9 hitter.
Here's my attempt at a witty sig. Didn't really go so well, methinks.
Wise men wonder, while strong men die.
If you ate this Thanksgiving, thank your local turkey farmer.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
“The Book says the #4 hitter comes to bat in the most important situations out of all nine spots, but is equal in importance to the #2 hole once you consider the #2 guy receives more plate appearances. The cleanup hitter is the best hitter on the team with power.”
So like I said, they’re both equally important. You’re right that the #2 hitter gains value from an extra 35-40 PA, but the #4 hitter generally comes up in the biggest spots in the game.
good find
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I know it doesn’t mean much, but if you look at the playoffs how have they ended? With Ryan Howard (K), A-Rod (K), Nyjer Morgan (walk off hit), Desmond Jennings (ground out).
And where did these hitters bat? #4, #4, #2, #1.
Obviously this isn’t conclusive of anything, but it’s amusing (or at least an interesting coincidence, given this discussion) that each playoff series ended with what should have been one of the best hitters on the team.
The delicious ironing
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Any chance that Lind's batting average
is artificially high? He was batting with a runner on first a disproportionate amount of time because Bautista was batting in front of him. The first baseman would have been covering first in that situation and more of his ground balls should have found the hole? Maybe less doubles down the line however…
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 12, 2011 8:10 PM EDT reply actions
even if that's the case
it’s highly unlikely that that happened more than, like, four times, and it still would have been very much outweighed by his aggregate BABIP luck
Interesting point
Lind batted .600 with men on 3rd. CLUTCH!
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Left handed batters hit most of their ground balls to the right side. Do you know how much benefit they get from having a runner on first generally?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 12, 2011 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure what you're exactly trying to get at
Are you saying Lind was lucky on AVG?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Not lucky, just that he had an advantage in that the first baseman was often covering first while he was batting. If Bautista wasn’t batting in front of him his average may have been lower. Just speculating…
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 12, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah it happens a bit of a hole to the pull side since 2nd baseman is going to play a bit closer to the bag but wouldn’t that also take away some of the hits up the middle?
so really, it doesn't make much difference overall
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I think you would have to look at the batting averages of LHB’s with a runner on 1st versus with the bases empty. I have no idea if there is much of a difference though. There should be some difference though otherwise the 1st basemen would just stand on the bag all the time.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 12, 2011 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions
.225/.289/.369/.659 with runner on 1st.
bases empty: .258/.286/.437/.723
just awful awful awful numbers from lind
by Sniderlover on Oct 12, 2011 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
isn't that nearly the level of a pitcher?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
would've been 5th in SLG
among pitchers with over 20 PA (arbitrary). Dontrelle Willis was worth almost a win with the bat, .387/.387/.645 in 34 PA with a homer (.442 wOBA, 182 wRC+)
Where did you find the splits? b-ref?
I only found Bases Empty, Men On Base, and Men In Scoring Position on FG
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
yeah baseball ref… I assume you’re referring to runner on 1st right?
by Sniderlover on Oct 12, 2011 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Can you find the numbers for all batters with a runner on 1st and in particular all LHB’s?
The best I can find is this (from a base stealing article):
The top ten teams in SBs had the following increases when there was a runner on first compared to no runners on (the average across the teams)
AVG-.025
SLG-.030
OBP-.008
OPS-.038
That is, with a runner on first, these teams had a .025 higher batting average than they did when there were no runners on base. Slugging went up .030, OBP .008 and OPS .038.
The bottom ten teams in SBs had the following increases
AVG-.019
SLG-.028
OBP-.011
OPS-.039
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 12, 2011 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
It seems to suggest that a batter would be about .022 better with a runner on 1st. Ex: .297 rather than .275 . This could be due to other factors but the difference should also be greater for LHB’s since they hit a lot more ground balls to the right side.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 12, 2011 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I meant all LHB’s in mlb to see if there is a benefit to having a runner on 1st. If it exists it didn’t help Lind much :) Those are interesting numbers btw. Thanks!
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 12, 2011 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I came across this in my search
Actually, it turns out that left-handed batters, despite being two steps closer to first base, actually beat out fewer infield hits than their right-handed counterparts. Whoa! That’s kind of unexpected, isn’t it?
The reason for this is actually fairly simple: more infield hits are made on balls hit to the shortstop or third baseman, due to the longer throw. In particular, very few balls that are fielded by the first baseman go for infield hits. And right-handed batters hit more grounders to the left side of the infield, while lefties tend to pull the ball to the first or second basemen.
from this article
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 12, 2011 11:07 PM EDT reply actions
interesting
I wonder if this holds true for “slap hitters” who try to pull balls to the left side (Ichiro) to get infield hits
If he hits more balls to the left side of the infield then it wouldn’t apply (and he would have a 2 step running advantage).
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 12, 2011 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
more like 3 for ichiro with the way he hits
by Sniderlover on Oct 12, 2011 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure this matters but I wonder how severely the injuries limited his production
From the games I saw, it seemed like he hit a lot of deep flyballs that were caught on the warning track. Having various back and wrist injuries this year could have drained some of his power.
I think if 10 or so of those long balls go out, Lind is a pretty good option at 1st considering his contract. Maybe before banishing him, we should see how he does with some extra conditioning over the off-season.
by Matthew Mueller on Oct 13, 2011 2:36 AM EDT reply actions
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