Bluebird Banter Top Prospect Review: 21-30
by Tom Dakers on Oct 13, 2011 1:06 PM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintThe third part in our little review on how the players on our top prospects list performed this season. The first part is here and the second here.
10.Jake Marisnick: Somehow I skipped him in both the first two parts. Jake had a terrific season in Lansing, hitting .320/.392/.496 with 14 home runs, 77 RBI and 37 stolen bases (he was also hit by pitch 14 times, he either leans over the plate, or else he owes a lot of Mid-West League pitches money). Jake is following Anthony Gose up the system, but he's a pretty decent prospect. He'd likely be moving to one of the corner outfield spot if Gose turns out to be the player we hope he will. He's just 20 and a few steps away from the majors.
21. A.J. Jimenez: If we didn't have so many catcher prospects, we'd likely be making a bigger deal about A.J. He hit .303/.353/.417 in Dunedin this year, with 11 stolen bases. He threw out 44% of base stealers, after throwing out 51% in 2010, so he must have a good arm. A little more power would be nice but he is 21, so has time to develop some.
22. Darin Mastroianni: Darin split time between Vegas and New Hampshire, with a few minutes in Toronto mixed him. He didn't have the best of seasons, hitting .254/.342/.355 at New Hampshire and .276/.358/.389 in Vegas with 34 stolen bases between the two. He also had 2 at bats with the Jays. He had been getting on base at really good rate in past seasons, but a lot of his OBP has been his ability to watch ball 4. With his lack of power, I don't think he will do as well in the majors. Pitchers have no reason to walk him since he can't hurt them with the bat. I think he could be ok as a 4th or 5th outfielders and be pretty useful with his speed, but I don't see it happening in Toronto. He is 26 now.
23. David Cooper: David had a great year at Vegas, hitting .364/.439/.535, with 9 home runs and 96 RBI. Since he hit .257 and .258 the past two seasons, in New Hampshire, this was big step up. He hit .211/.284/.394 in 71 at bats with the Jays. I think, given time, Cooper would hit for a good average in the majors, but I don't know that he would have the power you would like to see from a first baseman.
24. Gustavo Pierre: Gustavo didn't have the best of seasons, splitting time between Bluefield and Lansing. He hit ok in Bluefield (.252/.324/.396) but barely at all in Lansing (.187/.244/.262). He also made a ton of errors, 8 in Bluefield for a .909 FA and 36 in Lansing for a .836 FA. Normally I don't worry too much about errors in the low minors, infields aren't exactly perfect and official scorers have their own ideas of what errors are, but 44 in a season is a lot. He is just 19, and has a lot of time to work things out, apparently he has all the right tools but we'll have to see if he can turn those tools into baseball talent.
25. Kellen Sweeney: A second round pick in 2010, he spent most of the season on the DL, breaking a bone in his left hand. He appeared in just 9 games for Bluefield, hitting .114/.295/.143, in very limited at bats. In 2009 he had Tommy John surgery, so I'm hoping he's got all the injuries out of his system and can start moving up the ladder next year. He is 20 now.
26. Brad Mills: Brad had a good season in Vegas (by PCL standards) going 11-9 with a 4.00 ERA in 24 starts. He walked 39 and struck out 136 in 157.1 innings. He pitched a handful of innings in Toronto. I think that's going to be his lot of life, a Triple-A pitcher, who gets a few innings in the majors, here and there. I still think he could have been a decent starter if he had been given enough of a chance, but he turns 27 in March. Enough pitchers have passed him by, in our system, that you can pretty safely say his future isn't as part of our starting rotation.
27. Marcus Knecht: Our 3rd round pick in 2010, he did great in his first look at full season ball in Lansing. He hit .273/.377/.474 with 16 homers in 121 games. He played all 3 outfield spot but mostly LF. I would think he'd start next season at Dunedin and go from there. He's 21.
28. Chris Hawkins: Another 3rd round pick in 2010, about a year younger than Knight. He played in Bluefield and hit .318/.375/.492, with 5 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 68 games. He should be ready for a full season league next year.
29. Brian Jeroloman: Brian didn't have great stats at Vegas, unusual for a hitter. He hit .240/.335/.295 with 2 homers in 79 games. Vegas manager, Marty Brown, said that he needs to be a little more aggressive at the plate. At the end of the year he spent a month and a half on the bench with the Jays, not even getting into 1 game. In Vegas he only threw out 15% of base runners; his career rate is 30%, I don't know why the huge drop. I think he could be a good backup catcher, but I get the feeling the Jays don't, or they would have let him catch a few innings in his time with the Jays. The Jays are talking about getting a veteran backup, so it doesn't look like he'll get the chance. I'd bet on him hitting better in Vegas next year.
30. Michael McDade: Michael is sort of a favourite of mine, but I'm not exactly sure why. I do like guys that can hit the ball a long way. He hit .281/.328/.457, with 16 home runs and 28 walks, in 125 games for New Hampshire. He really needs to be more selective at the plate, if he wants to have a major league career. Of course if they move him up to Vegas, next year, he could have a monster season.
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Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
mistake(s)
but who cares?
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
I do!
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
You and Leaflover
fWAR Since Trade: Shaun Marcum: 2.7 Brett Lawrie: 2.8
Internet Points: 1501
by Bluebirdz on Oct 13, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sitting in a tree....
Follow me @BBBMinorLeaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Oct 13, 2011 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
q-u-i-bb-l-i-n-g
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
by Gerse on Oct 13, 2011 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
How does 10 come before 21? TYPO!!1
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
by Frag on Oct 13, 2011 3:56 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
18, 19, 20, 10, 21!
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Make me!
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
What he said
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
I like McDade too
For probably similar reasons as you Tom. I also like the aspect of him being a switch hitter. A possible move up to Vegas would be sending him home to play.
He's supposed to be a good defensive 1B too.
I just wish he had better plate discipline, although he showed a decent eye at the Arizona Fall League last year.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I don't see the advantage of being a switch hitter since most switch hitters fair better against a certain handedness
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I see advantage in that,
it can sometimes negate opposing managers trying to do matchups late in the games sometimes. I’m sure you’re right about the effectiveness against certain handedness. I find switch hitters more often than not, imo, are somewhat less effective against lefties, possibly because they don’t see them near as much. But after watching some of hitters (notably left handed ones) wave meekly at sliders away, I wouldn’t mind someone that could just simply switch around and make that pitch a little less effective.
His splits this year
.826 OPS Vs. RHP
.653 OPS Vs. LHP
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Who's to say
that he wouldn’t be worse vs. LHP batting from the left side, though?
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
that's true
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
You do have to be roughly equal from both sides
Otherwise, stick with your stronger side. Mantle had a career OPS of .964 from the left side and .999 from the right side; pretty equal. Chipper Jones is better from the left side, with a .402 wOBA hitting lefty, and a .374 wOBA from the right side.
It’s clearly an advantage if you have such even splits.
yes but many switch hitters have platoon splits that are similar to regular batters
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
question is:
Is the fact that they’re switch hitters improves that split? (as compared to the split they would have batting only from one side) If yes, that’ an advantage for the player. Not necessarily makes him better than other players, just improves his results.
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Is expecting power from 1B outdated in thinking?
Isn’t the idea that your firstbase MUST hit with power and crunch HR’s a little bit outdated. I’m not saying Cooper is ever going to make an impact in the Majors or should even be in our long term plans. But i don’t like the idea that he or any other 1B should be discounted or devalued because “Cooper would hit for a good average in the majors, but I don’t know that he would have the power you would like to see from a first baseman.” Now that the steroid era has ended and HR’s numbers have come back to earth, we are seeing power from the middle infield that we never saw before. There was a time when it was pretty universally in baseball that there was no power at 2B and SS so you had to have it at the corners. Just compare the HR’s hit by SS and 2B in 1989 compared to 2011. It was almost accepted that your middle infield guys would be fast, great defensive players who you batted 7th, 8th or 9th and all your power was at the corners. The game has really changed in the last 20 years compared to the previous 80 and with such a vast talent pool available, power can now be found at every position putting in my belief, less of an onus on the traditional power positions to produce HR’s . I would not discount a player or rate him lower as a 1B if the guy was a great hitter but had no power but played first. Maybe Cooper is good, maybe he’s not but the fact that he plays 1B and doesn’t have a lot of power doesn’t mean anything to me. Heck, Bautista will hit Cooper’s or any other non power hitting first baseman’s portion of HR’s if the guy is getting on base for Jose to cash in.
"What's so special about Lou Gehrig? Shouldn't EVERY Yankee have a disease named after him? "
it's not necessarily outdated
but due to self-selection, it’s almost always necessary. we talked about this a little when we discussed taking a flyer on Barton. most truly elite defensive players self-select into difficult defensive positions (SS, CF) so mostly crummy defenders get stashed at 1B and LF. but if you do have a really good defensive 1B, whose skills don’t necessarily translate to other positions – say, mediocre arm strength and speed – he can compensate for a lack of power if he has good on-base skills. but given that most 1Bs are poor defenders overall, they have to compensate by being very good hitters overall.
so yes, it might be outdated, and players who are great at getting on base and defense can be very valuable players, as Barton was in 2010. but Cooper isn’t a good defender by all scouting reports, and if his only skill is getting on base/contact, skills which are likely to be much less effective in the Majors, he won’t be a good Major Leaguer
I especially hate it
when people say a player doesn’t profile as a third baseman because of a lack of power.
1) You don’t need to hit for power to field a certain position well
2) In terms of hitting, you need production: a high wOBA, not one of those skills above all others.
If Cooper doesn’t have the bat for 1B, it’s because his contact, BABIP, power and plate discipline skills could not combine to reach a certain wOBA standard. If he hits .320/.400/.410 he doesn’t have any power, but he’s valuable nonetheless.
my above comment applies to third basemen too
it’s not that you need power to be a third baseman, it’s that guys who play third base usually aren’t great defenders overall and as such need to be pretty good hitters (most good hitters have some power) to be Major Leaguers. of course, superlative players like Longoria have power, on-base skills and defense (speed can be a part of it too), so to be an elite player, you basically need all three. you can be a fine or even good player with only two or three of those, though
I don't think the game has changed that much at all in the last 20 years.
And I don’t think expecting your first baseman to hit with some power is outdated either.
More like he was pretty okay.
He has always been noted for his defense (not his offense) and he’s about the best Tampa could come up with (or afford) to play first. He’s somewhat of a journeyman.
.116 ISO is very poor for anyone, not just 1Bs
it’s around 20th percentile of qualified players. besides, Kotchman’s pretty good season (2.8 WAR) was greatly inflated by BABIP “luck” – .338 BABIP despite a middling line-drive rate (18.3%), a high IFFB rate (11.5%), and poor speed (I know Speed Score isn’t perfect, but Kotchman’s is 2.4) which would mitigate the upward effects of his extreme ground-ball tendencies (55.8%)
he was a solid regular last year
a .378 OBP is almost always good.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I don't think he was "far better than Lind".
Though that is my personal opinion, and I’d still rather have Lind then him, again my opinion for reasons that do not mix with this collective.
That assertion is totally wrong Alan...Middle infield power was nothing until 10-15 years ago
Here were the top power middle infielders in 1992
Top 6
SS
1. Travis Fryman – 20
2. Cal Ripken – 14
3. Barry Larkin – 12
4. Jay Bell – 9
5. Mariano Duncan – 8
6. Tony Fernandez – 4
2B
1. Ryne Sandberg – 26
2. Carlos Baerga – 20
3. Lou Whitaker – 19
4. Robby Thompson – 14
5. Tony Phillips – 10
6. Roberto Alomar – 8 (2 others also at 8)
2011
SS
1. Troy Tulowitzki – 30
2. J.J. Hardy – 30
3. Asdrubal Cabrera – 25
4. Jhonny Peralta – 21
5. Jimmy Rollins – 16
6. Alexei Ramirez – 15
2B
1. Dan Uggla – 36
2. Ian Kinsler -32
3. Robinson Cano -28
4. Dustin Pedroia – 21
5. Danny Espinosa – 21
6. Kelly Johnson – 21
Fun Facts
In 2011 the top 3 HR hitting SS hit more HR"s then every SS in 1992 combined. In fact, to achieve as many HR’s as were hit by middle infielders in 2011 you must take middle infield HR’s from 1987-1992. The addition of power hitting to the middle field is a very new phenomenon in baseball.
"What's so special about Lou Gehrig? Shouldn't EVERY Yankee have a disease named after him? "
by Sean Coleman on Oct 13, 2011 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions
That is an interesting list. The fun facts are for qualified SS’s and middle infielders. There were only 12 qualified SS’s in 1992. Some of the unqualified ones hit more HR’s than the qualified ones. Spike Owen hit 7 HR’s for the Expos for example but in 122 games.
Still, there is a lot more power now…
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 13, 2011 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, what can I say then.
All shortstops and second basemen were punch and judy hitters until what, 10-15 years ago. Nope, those positions just never ever hit for power before then. Glad you got Ripken’s one big power year, Whitaker’s off the chart year, and Sanberg’s anomaly of a season. These guys couldn’t hit for power before that year, they just got lucky.
It's true that the season that was chosen is misrepresentative of the league in general
11 second basemen and four shortstops hit 10 + hr in 1990. on the other hand, it is true that power has increased from middle infielders. At the same time, though, power has increased in general as well.
2011 HR, MLB-wide: 4552
1990 HR, MLB-wide: 3317
So, yes, there is more power in the middle infield spots, but there is also just more in general as well. It’s focused a bit more in the middle infield, but not as much as people might think
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Yes there is more general power.
But there could also be some other circumstances that go into the mix. I think of more hitter friendly parks being added and better athletes in general as a couple. But to state middle infield power was nothing before 10-15 years ago is just plain wrong.
right
by the way, there are three more teams now
2011: 4552 hr / 30 teams ~ 152 hr / team
1990: 2217 hr / 27 teams ~ 123 hr / team
still a difference of 30 hr / team
Also, that shouldn’t affect what proportion of hr come from 2nd basemen and shortstops, since those teams have second basemen and shortstops, too
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Somewhat related interesting read:
Tango takes this to the extreme and looks at the expected production for a team with no home runs.
Interesting stuff going on in the comments there too, as always.
There's only 1 N in Drew Hutchison
Sure
A position player’s job is to do 4 things: get on base, run the bases well, hit for power, and field your position well. If you can’t do 1 of 2 of those, as long as you make up for it by doing the other well, it’s fine. This is why I like Daric Barton, who gets on base and fields his position well.
David Cooper, however, really can only do one of those well. He can get on base, but he doesn’t hit for power, doesn’t run the bases well (AFAIK), and doesn’t field his position well.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
His power might turn out to be decent
you don’t know that he’ll never hit for solid power. Oh, he might not become the new Carlos Delgado, but I don’t think it’s crazy to expect him to have some seasons with 25 homers (if he gets the playing time).
my point wasn't about Cooper...
If he can’t hit then that’s why he shouldn’t play at 1B for him…I was just making the point that his HR production should be irrelevant to the conversation because its not 1989.
"What's so special about Lou Gehrig? Shouldn't EVERY Yankee have a disease named after him? "
by Sean Coleman on Oct 13, 2011 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, that's true
but hitting for power is still relevant.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
hitting for power doesn’t mean HR’s though…
2 words… John Olerud
"What's so special about Lou Gehrig? Shouldn't EVERY Yankee have a disease named after him? "
by Sean Coleman on Oct 13, 2011 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
John Olerud is a HOF 1B (in my opinion)
If Cooper can walk 14.1% of the time, have a career AVG of .295, and play excellent defense, you won’t hear anything from me.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Cooper's absolute ceiling
But they are similar types of players – great plate discipline, some power. Cooper will never be as good a defensive 1B, though.
oh gosh, no
Cooper’s absolute ceiling is probably Overbay.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Overbay is a 1.5 win/season player by TZL
Cooper’s defense has never been rated as anything better than “poor.” Cooper’s ceiling is James Loney, IMO
.288/.346/.432
Yup, that looks about right. Loney’s worth about 1.5~1.8 WAR in a full season. If we assume their defense is similar (which I’m not sure about. Loney’s average at 1B. Not sure if Cooper is average at 1B), then it’s a pretty apt comparison
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
who is kyle?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
who is Kyle Loverbay?
he related to Lyle Overbay in any way?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
no
it’s not Lyle, it’s… Kyle
(from an old Jays radio ad. there are trivia questions about Lyle Overbay, all of which a caller correctly answers. the host asks “Lyle, is that you?” Overbay says, “it’s not Lyle, it’s… Kyle”)
what?
I had no idea. That’s awesome.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
you should totally do that
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Lyle Drabek
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Sorry I’m late getting back to this: in terms of value, Overbay is Cooper’s ceiling; but John Olerud is a lot closer to the type of hitter Cooper will be if he hits his ceiling. The main difference between Olerud & Overbay is that Olerud struck out in 11% of his career PA; Overbay struck out 18.2%; Cooper struck out 8% of the time this year in Las Vegas: if he reaches his peak, he’s able to translate that to the major league level relatively fluidly, and strike out far less than Overbay, while maintaining a strong walk rate.
I’m optimistic that Cooper can keep a low K rate, not as optimistic that he can walk at an elite level.
So you mean James Loney
.288/.346/.432 career hitter, 8.1% BB rate, 12.4% K rate. That seems about right to me. Maybe he’ll walk a tick or two more, but his defense is probably worse than Loney’s too
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I meant Olerud
Loney is a decent comp as well. But when I describe “ceiling” I don’t mean present production, but rather a degree of progression, which takes him substantially closer to Olerud than Loney.
Hitting well enough to be a starting MLB first baseman
Is almost impossible if you don’t have any power. Ichiro in his prime is the most recent example I can come up with; Gwynn and Carew as well. Cooper, thankfully, doesn’t have no power; he has doubles power, and will probably hit about 10 hr/yr with his current skill. He would have a lot more value if he can hit 20 hr/yr, as he wouldn’t have to repeat his other performances in Las Vegas quite as nearly (8%K, 12%BB, .380 BABIP) to be a good MLB hitter.
All-Time HR’s by a SS 1880-2011
#13. Edgar Renteria
#14. Hanley Ramirez
Think about how little power there was in baseball for 110 years when #13th and #14th on the all time homeruns by a short stop leaders list are Edgar Renteria and Hanley Ramirez. How did they even allow Ernie Banks to play SS is a real shocker to me. I’m surprised they didn’t break his knees in order to slow him down so they could move him to the corners because all of your power has to be in the corners.
"What's so special about Lou Gehrig? Shouldn't EVERY Yankee have a disease named after him? "
okay
first of all, you do know that Ernie Banks actually played more games as a first baseman than as a shortstop, right?
Anyway, every list is going to be biased towards players who have played recently, just because there have been a lot more homeruns hit recently.
The best way to make your point would be to see what proportion of HR were hit by middle infielders in each decade
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
(for example)
14th most homeruns for a first baseman is by Paul Konerko
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
touche jessef… I must concede a little
i have not calculated the % of HR output from middle fielders by year because i’m pretty lazy and i come here to relax, not crunch too many numbers (that’s what Pikachu and bent are for) but i did come across an interesting article about power hitting middle infielders. While the article sets out to dismiss the notion that Cal Rypken is responsible for the rise in power hitting middle infielders and indicates that i was greatly overestimating the power increase in middle infielders forgetting to properly factor in the fact that that has been such a huge overall power increase to all positions. I found it an interesting read. Also, i did know that Banks played at first towards then end of his career but i unfortunately assumed incorrectly that he played a majority of it as a SS because he is always mentioned as a short stop.
"What's so special about Lou Gehrig? Shouldn't EVERY Yankee have a disease named after him? "
ah, didn't mean to offend, i apologize if that came off kind of douchey
yeah, Banks is a weird case, he’s always mentioned as a SS because he was so much better there but he actually played a ton of games at first
no worries re: not wanting to crunch the numbers — I haven’t done it either and as I said — you’re right, middle infielders do hit for more power relative to the league these days. But, as the article you linked states, there have pretty much always been a handful of middle infielders who hit for at some power
People still overlook Grich, Trammell, and Whitaker, who all displayed some power
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
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