The Season that Was: Edwin Encarnacion
by Tom Dakers on Oct 14, 2011 4:51 PM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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Edwin Encarnacion had a very up and down 2010. Then his off-season was pretty eventful, he was picked up by the A's off waivers. He spent about 20 days as an Athletic before they let him go and we signed him again to a one year $2.5 million contract with a $3.5 million option year.
Coming into spring training, we were told Edwin would be a DH, occasionally filling in at first. Then at the end of spring training it was decided that he would play third base. It might have been a good decision. I saw Jose Bautista taking ground balls at third during spring, and he really didn't look like a guy that wanted to play the spot, though it is possible I caught him at bad time, but I came away with the clear feeling that Jose would rather have been in RF. The team seemed to agree,
The decision to put EE at third might have been the right one, but the timing of it was terrible. If there ever was a guy that needed a full spring to get everything working properly, it is Edwin. He didn't get it and, maybe predictably, it didn't go well. Predictable or not, when he did have troubles the team didn't have much patience, pulling him from third after a bit more than a month's worth of games and we were treated to the baseball stylings of Jayson Nix.
In our preseason predictions, we had guesses that were all over the board. Mine? .255/.330/.500 with 27 home runs in 550 at bats. Can't win them all:
After a .235 BABIP in 2010, he had a far more normal BABIP of .292 this year. Fangraphs has him at a 1.5 WAR, giving him a $6.6 million value to the Jays.
Comparing to 2010, Edwin walked about the same amount of the time (8.1% from 7.9%) and struck out slightly less often (14.5% from 16.3%). He hit more line drives (19.4% from 17.5%) partly explaining the jump in doubles. Fewer fly balls (44.2% from 50.5%). And had a few more pop ups (17.2% from 15.8%). He had a much smaller percentage of his fly balls go for home runs (9.4% from 15.1%).
Edwin hit lefties (.276/.341/.504) slightly better than right-handers (.271/.322/.436).
He hit a lot better at home (.289/.353/.537) than on the road (.255/.314/.366). Last year his home/road splits were pretty equal.
With RISP he hit .24/.314/.415. I think we all remember that he had troubles with bases loaded, .167/.238/.222. Only 21 plate appearances, so I wouldn't read much into it.
By month Encarnacion hit:
April: .257/..282/.365.
May: .236/.257/.333.
June: .258/.313/.532.
July: .313/.377/.531.
August: .307/.407/.554.
September: .237/.310/.355.
I do wonder how his season would have gone if they hadn't made the last minute decision to put him in at third base.
Favorite team to face? The Mariners, .387/.525/.710. Least favorite? The Twins, .217/.208/.217.
His longest hit streak was 13 games, longest on base streak was 17 games. Longest hitless streak was 6 games, but then 4 of those games he was a pinch hitter.
On defense, well, you know. He played in 36 games at third, making 8 errors (most of them in the first couple of weeks). Fangraphs has him at a UZR/150 of -37.0. He played 25 games at first base, making 4 errors for a .981 FA. Fangraphs had him at a -12.9 UZR/150 there.
We have a team option on Edwin for 2012 for $3.5 million . I figure they will pick it up, he doesn't make the cut as a Type-B free agent, so there would be nothing more than money to be gained by letting him go. I don't know if it was just me but I think it smiled more this season, which I liked.
If you have missed some of these, so far we have looked at Adam Lind, Yunel Escobar and Jose Bautista, click on the name to get the post.
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I have to admit..
I was one of those fans who was on EE at the beginning of the year, but as the season progressed he grew on me. He seemed to be a better hit this year than last year, altho statistically he was more or less the same. It’s funny how a year changes things. Last year, I was glad when the A’s claimed him on waivers and was shocked when we re-signed him. Now, I don’t mind that he’s on the team – can give Lawrie and Lind a few days off.
I felt the same way too before looking at the numbers
I think it’s recency bias. he was brutal at the beginning, but hit really well in the second 2/3 of the season or so, so we remember the second period better
yea. what if he had started off the season hitting like he did in june to august, and then in the last three months put up his september/april/may numbers?
i feel like we’d probably want to get rid of him, when in reality it makes almost no difference for his expected future performance.
pretty sure that's exactly what benk said
recency bias
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
yea exactly
i was just emphasizing his point
I don't know about this
it makes almost no difference for his expected future performance.
I’m sure plenty of folks will tell me that statistics say I’m wrong but I’d be willing to guess there’s at least some chance he brought his fielding woes of the early season to the plate. Every player is different and, while that may not affect most players, I do think there’s a chance that it affected Edwin. Of course I’m not suggesting that his poor start at the plate was entirely due to his problems at third, but I do think it was part of it.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Yeah, I always apply a little Bayesian logic to these questions
I’d bet there’s no way of knowing statistically whether struggling in the field affects a player’s performance at the plate. But if we say there’s a 30% chance that EE undermined himself by his defence in the first two months, then we can discount that performance by a similar amount, and rationally improve our expectations for him going forward.
The most 25-man roster player traded this offseason?
His playing time is really under pressure. With Snider hopefully back in the outfield next year, he could be pressed into a platoon with Thames; anyone we sign or trade for 1B/DH would turn him into a platoon player with Lind at DH or 1st.
Maybe that’s the best role for him, a platoon DH/1B who can pinch-hit and can fill in at 3rd if Lawrie gets injured. His bat probably supports a full-time job, but it doesn’t really make sense with our roster.
His bat probably supports a full-time job
You think so? I dunno. He had an OPS of .790, which isn’t great for a DH/1B. It’s not terrible, but I think the Jays should be looking to upgrade.
but he hits lefties well
he’d be a good platoon 1B with Lind if we signed a good-hitting DH (Fielder)
oh, oops, silly reply
not at all what you meant. yes, I agree, Edwin’s bat only plays full-time at 3B, really. but he’d make a very solid platoon partner
I would be terribly disappointed if we traded Edwin
I love the idea of having at least on lefty masher as an option. That being said, I’ll also be disappointed if they rely on him as the full time DH.
Not great, not terrible
In fact, it was pretty average. The league average OPS for DH was .771, for 1B it was .792. League-average= worthy regular.
Of course, he may not be the best option on the Jays next season, hence the question of platooning.
Not enough
Cn’t fford to play him evreyday with his numbers and limited defense off the bench. Can someone tell how his extra base hits rate to RBIs for the league average? Seemed like he missed a lot of rbis with tht many extra bases. Especially hitting 5 or 6 in the lineup.
He doesn't really have limited defense
He can handle 1B and spell a few (just a few) games at 3B. I’d say he’s more valuable than Lind, who’s a worse hitter than Edwin at this point.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
100% agreed.
In my opinion, EE should be ahead of Lind on the depth chart at 2 positions right now – 1B and DH.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Sign David Ortiz
When everyone is healthy, platoon EE and Lind at 1B and DH Ortiz. It gives the manager a legitimate bat on the bench for late in the game. Ortiz will not cost more than Jose. He will not require a 6 or 7 year contract. He would probably sign for 2 years with an option/buyout for the 3rd year. He is not a Boras client. He is from the DR. He is fed up with Boston. NY has no spot for him.
by leonard euler on Oct 16, 2011 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Ortiz is 39
coming off a $12M deal (nearly as much as Jose) and had a monster season last year. I’d rather not have a 40 year old under contract. yes, Fielder will take a long-ish contract, but the dude is 27
would you change your mind?
If David Ortiz were born on November 18, 1975, would you change your mind?
by leonard euler on Oct 16, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
(He's 35, not 39)
Officially, at least
There's something delightful about Joe Buck saying "Coke deals with Hamilton"
I misunderstood
I thought you had some inside informaiton that his “official” birthdate was wrong.
by leonard euler on Oct 16, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm of the opinion
That the bereavement leave he took at the start of the season might have had more to do with his struggles early in the season than the last minute position change did. I thought he was our second best hitter in the heart of summer, and those July/August numbers look like they back that up, he looked banged up to me in Sept., so the downturn at the end doesn’t concern me too much. I think Edwin could have a really good season next year, 2 more months like July and August this season and we would be talking about an extension I think.
I'm a huge fan of EE as a DH
Even at the beginning of the year his splits as a DH were pretty legit. I hope we give him the role for good next year regardless of any acquisitions we make over the off season
by Matthew Mueller on Oct 14, 2011 8:30 PM EDT reply actions
I can get the splits of just the first half as DH but I remember them being fairly similar to his overall line as a DH
by Matthew Mueller on Oct 14, 2011 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll figure it out in Excel for you in a few minutes
There's something delightful about Joe Buck saying "Coke deals with Hamilton"
Here
Games 1-81 as DH: 139PA .251/.276/.368 4BB 21K 3HR .643OPS
Games 82-162 as DH/PH: 167PA .270/.319/.430 22BB 24K 8HR .749OPS
There's something delightful about Joe Buck saying "Coke deals with Hamilton"
Well. I guess I was wrong. Thank you
Wait. that can’t be right. Baseball reference has his OPS as a DH as .855 for the season.
by Matthew Mueller on Oct 14, 2011 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know how that's happening
I just exported the game log, filtered out all non-DH games in Excel, then did the calculations
There's something delightful about Joe Buck saying "Coke deals with Hamilton"
Ohhhh, I totally messed up
I didn’t realize the games were numbered by HIS games, not team games.
Disregard all things I’ve posted thus far
There's something delightful about Joe Buck saying "Coke deals with Hamilton"
They have is overall line as a DH as:
294PA .296/.361/.494 25BB 42K .855OPS
by Matthew Mueller on Oct 14, 2011 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
No matter what I do with the numbers I can't seem to get it to work
There's something delightful about Joe Buck saying "Coke deals with Hamilton"
No big deal
I appreciate the valiant effort
by Matthew Mueller on Oct 14, 2011 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Screwed that up a bit, trying again:
Games 1-81 as DH/PH: 159PA .252/.278/.366 5BB 25K 4HR .645OPS
Games 82-162 as DH/PH: 147PA .276/.332/.456 21BB 20K 7HR .788OPS
There's something delightful about Joe Buck saying "Coke deals with Hamilton"
I've always been a fan of EE, I'm glad to see him do quite well this year.
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
Ok people, no EE recap is complete without...
Remember Gregg Zaun’s rendition of this during Jays Connected? Good times… sniff
by shuswapslugger on Oct 15, 2011 2:16 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I don’t know if I’m a fan of EE as the full time DH, but I like his bat off the bench, he showed pretty good defense at first, and we know in an emergency you can have him hold down third for a couple of days. That’s a nice, flexible bench player and pinch-hitter threat at the very least.
yup
and especially with his contract. he’s a decently versatile player with a solid bat, but I think he’s a little overmatched in a full-time position: whether it’s by his bat compared to other players at that position, or by glove
seriously
who would you rather have over the next 5 years? Lind or Edwin?
I don’t think it’s crazy to pick Edwin.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
almost the same age
Definitely not crazy to pick Edwin; he’s been far more consistent. Lind Ks more, but hits more line drives and pops out less, and I think they have similar power. Frankly, I think they can both be useful players, but neither is likely to be the kind of premium talent AA is trying to collect for the Jays.
Hence, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either traded this offseason, or more likely, at the trading deadline next year: Lind if he has a bounceback season; EE if he maintains his good production. One of Cooper, Loewen or McDade would likely be able to step into the breach.
I keep thinking that there’s no reason why Edwin can’t be a major league 3rd baseman. He’ll never be a good defensive 3rd baseman, but I think he can be below-average but not horrific defensively, and his bat will make up for it. It’s not what the Jays need, but he’d be more valuable to many teams as a 3rd baseman.
I just wish we keep him so he can get type B some how
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I would take Edwin, and it’s not close in my books.
Neither can play any position other than 1B, but Lind has a fatal flaw in his game – an inability to hit LHP – that EE does not have.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
but Lind hits very well against RHP
meaning he’s more valuable in a platoon than is Edwin. though EE also has the ability (maybe the Jays don’t agree, who knows) to prevent Jayson Nixes from getting PAs by potentially filling in at third for a few games here and there
Maybe Lind is better in a platoon (simply because there are more RHP than LHP), but I wouldn't personally platoon 2 guys that can't play D.
And then there is this:
EE vs. RHP (career): 7.3 (BB%), 17.2 (K%), .323 (OBP), .186 (ISO)
EE vs. LHP (career): 12.6 (BB%), 17.2 (K%), .365 (OBP), .210 (ISO)
Lind vs. RHP (career): 7.0 (BB%), 17.4 (K%), .334 (OBP), .225 (ISO)
Lind vs. LHP (career): 5.0 (BB%), 25.9 (K%), .266 (OBP), .126 (ISO)
I personally don’t see enough of a difference between their respective numbers against RHP to justify carrying an entire extra player on the bench who provides exactly the same value in the field when one player dramatically outperforms the other against LHP.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
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