FanPost

Looking at the Jays Payroll and their Ability Fill in Some Holes

For discussion purposes, I put together what I believe are the payroll obligations.  In some cases, I'm guesstimating how much of a raise some might be due.  So these numbers are variable, but I think overall it should be reasonably close.  Same thing with the potential free agent signings, those are guesses.  And Darvish's guess includes the posting fee.



Player

2012 Salary

2013 Salary

2014 Salary

Position Players

 

 

 

Starting Catcher (JP Arencibia/Travis D’Arnaud)

0.5 M

1 M

3 M

Backup Catcher (Free agent)

1.25 M

1.25 M

1.25 M

First Base (Adam Lind)

5 M

5 M

7 M

Second Base (Free agent or trade)

TDB

TBD

TBD

Shortstop (Yunel Escobar)

5 M

5 M

5 M

Thirdbase (Brett Lawrie)

0.5 M

1 M

3 M

Left field (Travis Snider/Eric Thames/Adam Lowen...)

1 M

3 M

5 M

Center field (Colby Rasmus)

2.5 M

6 M

9 M

Right field (Jose Bautista)

14 M

14 M

14 M

DH (Encarnacion, other...)

3.5 M

TBD

TBD

4th outfielder (Rajai Davis)

2.75 M

3 M

TBD

Utility player (McCoy, McDonald, etc.)

1 M

1 M

1 M

Other backup (Mark Teahan)

5.5 M

TBD

TBD

Starting Pitchers

 

 

 

Ricky Romero

5 M

7.5 M

7.5 M

Brandon Morrow

4 M

7 M

N/A

Brett Cecil

1 M

2 M

3.5 M

Henderson Alvarez

0.5 M

1.5 M

3 M

Dustin McGowan

1 M

N/A

N/A

Relievers

 

 

 

Casey Janssen

1.5 M

2.25 M

3.25 M

Jesse Litsch

1.5 M

2.25 M

3.25 M

Joel Carreno

0.5 M

1 M

1.5 M

Carlos Villanueva

2 M

N/A

N/A

Luis Perez

0.5 M

1 M

1.5 M

Free agent 1 (or potential trade?)

TBD

TBD

TBD

Free agent 2 (or potential trade?)

TBD

TBD

TBD

Totals

 

 

 

 

60

64.75

71.75

So let’s look at some some holes and potential upgrades, their possible costs and the impact on the payroll.  This can give us some insight as to what makes sense and what doesn’t.

Potential upgrades:  1B/DH

Option

 

 

 

Combination of Fielder, Lind and EE

+20 M

+22 M*

+25 M*

Combination of Fielder, Cooper and EE + trade away Lind

+15 M

+17 M**

+14.5 M**

Combination of Votto, Lind and EE

+9.5 M

+17 M

+22 M

Combination of Votto, Cooper and EE + trade away Lind

+4.5 M

+12.5 M

+18.5 M

Carlos Pena + trade away Lind

+5 M

+5 M

+2.5 M

Jim Thome + trade away Lind

+2.5 M

N/A

N/A

Combination of Giambi, Lind, EE

+1 M

N/A

N/A

 

 

2B

Option

 

 

 

Kelly Johnson

+8 M

+8 M

+10 M

Aaron Hill

+5 M

+6 M

+6M

Marco Scutaro

+5.5M

+6.5M

+7M

One-year contract crappy veteran (OCab, Mark Ellis, etc)

+2 M

N/A

N/A

 

Starting Pitching upgrades

Option

 

 

 

Yu Darvish

+20 M

+20 M

+20 M

CJ Wilson

+15 M

+15 M

+15 M

Edwin Jackson

+10 M

+10 M

+10 M

Mark Buehrle

+10 M

+10 M

 

Trade for a pitcher (Haren, Gonzalez, Garza, Latos, etc...)

+5-10 M

 

 

 

First, I’m going to assume that Anthopoulos is going to spend 10 M this offseason (and the next few seasons as well) on relief pitching.  I think he made it clear that they needed help down there, and this year was a frustrating one from a relief pitching standpoint.  Pick your 2-3 relievers among the potential free agents out there.  Or maybe he picks up a closer-type and signs someone like Darvish and puts Cecil in the pen.  Still though, I think we assume he’ll be paying for a few relievers this offseason.

So for 2012, I’m assuming that with the bullpen signings, we’re up to about 70 M

So if they go up to 80 M Salary, they couldn’t afford much more.  Maybe they sign Kelly Johnson only or get a slight upgrade in the starting rotation, adding a guy like Edwin Jackson.

With a 90 M salary, they could afford a guy like Fielder or Darvish.  But that would be it.  A 90 M salary in 2012 means they’d be somewhere close to a 100 M salary in 2014.

Now, if we’re going to believe what Beeston says in that the Jays are willing to spend up to 120 M, that means the Jays could almost afford to sign Kelly Johnson, Fielder and Yu Darvish.  If they trade Lind and sign Fielder, Johnson and Darvish, their payroll in 2012 should be around 115 M, but then it’ll be around 125-130 M in 2014.

Are the Jays ready to commit to that?  Do they think this group has what it takes?  I doubt they’re willing to take the plunge and go all-in just yet.  But I do think they might be willing to try to do a few things to see how close they.  I think they’ll pay to go some relief pitching, and I think they’ll try to sign Yu Darvish first.  If they’re unsuccessful, they might try to get Fielder.  But they won’t do both, in my opinion – not yet anyway.

So with this, I have a few random thoughts, I thought I’d throw in.

·         I can see why Anthopoulos likes the trade route.  Free agents can run up your payroll pretty quickly.

·         I’m sure glad we don’t have Wells and his contract anymore.

·         Considering we gave up quite a few little pieces, I sure hope Rasmus performs over the next few seasons.  His salary, coupled with Teahan’s will cost the Jays 8M, and they gave up Zep, Stewart, and Dotel’s type B status.  Still a decent gamble to take, but expensive nonetheless.

·         In doing this exercise, I realized just how little realistic trade options are out there for the areas in which the Jays have needs.  Of course, Anthopoulos has people looking at this full time, so I’m sure they have some ideas.

·         The free agent market in general is thin as well, and there aren’t many upgrades available.  I’m worried about 2B.  If they don’t sign Johnson or Scutaro (and they’ll surely have competition for their services), it might get ugly over there.  Or maybe the Jays bite the bullet and bring up Hechavarria up for his defence.

·         Seriously, if they can pull it off, a trade for Votto, with an extension makes a whole lot of sense.  It shores up their offense for quite a while with Bautista, Votto and Lawrie. 

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