Bluebird Banter Top Prospect Review: 31-40
The final part of our review of how the players on our Top Prospect list did this season. Part one is here, part two here and part three here. We'll take a look at the guys that were on our 'just miss out lists' next.
31. Adam Loewen: The Jays kept telling us that it would take 1500 plate appearances to get his batter stroke down. Well, he has 1513 minor league PA in the past 3 years in the Jays system and this was his best season with the bat, so far. He hit .306/.377/.508 in Vegas with 46 doubles and 17 home runs. He also had 37 PA with the Jays in September. He has ok speed; he has stolen 28 bases over the last two years. Spring training should be an interesting time, he, Thames, Snider and Davis (presuming no changes are made before then, likely not a smart presumption) will all be fighting for the same couple of spots on the 25-man roster. I like Loewen for a 4th outfielder spot, he can play all 3 outfield spots and it wouldn't be a bad thing to have a guy with a little bit of pop in his bat on the bench. But Davis is more likely to get the fourth spot and I'm not sure that the team would want to carry two extra outfielders.
The rest after the jump.
32. K.C. Hobson: K.C. spent the season in Lansing and didn't show any power at all. He hit .250/.336/.333 with just 4 home runs in 480 at bats. Without power, he has no value as a prospect. He is 21, so it is possible he will develop it but it isn't likely.
33. Griffin Murphy: A second round draft pick from last year, he made 11 starts for the Gulf Coast League Jays, going 2-2 with a 4.39 ERA. He gave up 48 hits, walked 16 and struck out 39 in 41 innings. Not bad for his first look at pro-ball. There are a lot of steps between the GCL and Toronto. He turns 21 in January.
34. Michael Crouse: Our 16th round pick in the 2008 draft, out of high school in BC, Crouse has had a nice pro career. This season he played in Lansing for the full season, hitting .261/.352/.475 there, with 14 home runs and 38 stolen bases in 101 games. He played in the outfield, mostly RF and showed a good arm, picking up 13 assists. He's just 20 but already showing a good eye and power at the plate. We have a number of good young outfielders coming up the system, but with speed, power and a good eye, Crouse is as interesting as any of them.
35. Joel Carreno: Carreno had quite the season. He started it in New Hampshire, where he made 23 starts, going 7-9 with a 3.41 ERA. In 134.2 innings he gave up 100 hits, 68 walks and 152 strikeouts. He got called up to Toronto in mid-August, to join a bullpen that had traded away Jason Frasor, Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski a couple of weeks before. Joel did a nice job for the Jays in limited work, a 1.15 ERA in 15.2 innings, 11 hits, 4 walks, 14 strikeouts, 1 home run. Small sample size and all, but I'll looking forward to seeing him more next year.
36. Sean Ochinko: Ochinko, an 11th-round draftee in June 2009, had a nice season at Lansing in 2010 hitting .311/.360/.459. He moved up to Dunedin this year, and had a pretty good season, hitting .261/.324/.447 with 16 home runs. It is nice to see the jump in power numbers. He split time at catcher, third base and first base. At catcher he threw out 25% of base stealers. His best chance to make the majors is as a utility player, someone that can play those three spots would have value. He turns 24 Friday. I would be nice to see him move up a level or two next year. His OPS has dropped, as he has moved up levels, his OPS the last three years: .908, .819 and, 771 last year. Not that unusual, as the levels get tougher, but he's going to have to reverse that if he wants to make the majors. I bet he's the type that would have a great season in Vegas.
37. Egan Smith: Egan was a 7th round pick back in 2008, a big (6'4") left hander. He pitched in Lansing this season, getting 24 starts, earning a 7-7 record with a 3.84 ERA. In 117.1 innings he gave up 141 hits, but just 24 walks and 95 strikeouts. He should continue moving up the ladder, turns 23 in March.
38. Ryan Goins: Our 4th round pick in 2009, Ryan spent the season in Dunedin. He hit .286/.343/.408 with 3 home runs in 101 games. He played shortstop, most of his value is tied to staying at short and reviews are mixed on whether he can or not. He'll be 24 in February, it would be nice to get him up to New Hampshire, next season, and see how he does there.
39. Yan Gomes: Yet another catcher, he spent most of the season backing up Travis d'Arnaud in New Hampshire, playing 43 games at catcher, another 20 at first and 16 more as DH. He also got into 4 games at Vegas. He hit .250/.317/.464 with 13 homers for the Fisher Cats. If we weren't armpit deep in catching prospects we'd be a little more excited about Yan. He is 23.
40. Alan Farina: He was added to the 40-man roster before the start of the season, and then made 17 appearances for New Hampshire, before being put on the DL. A little bit later, he had Tommy John surgery. Odds are he won't be pitching again until mid to late next season. He did well in his 17 game, 1.56 ERA, 15 hits, 7 walks, 16 strikeouts in 17.1 innings. Many pitchers come back from TJ pitching as well as they did before the injury. Pat Hentgen told us that Farina's got a really good arm. He's got a pretty darn good tight slider.
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Loewen is out of options, right? That could help him make the lineup if he survives the AA winter.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 19, 2011 5:23 PM EDT reply actions
he won't bring back much
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Am I a hoarder?
I don’t want him traded, but I don’t want him on the team.
I don't really care
He won’t bring back much in a trade, nor will he provide much value as a 4th (or 5th) OF
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Must be another team with a similar situation but at a different position
Talented you guy, no room in majors, out of options, plays 1B.
I don't see how anyone could describe Loewen as talented at this stage
he has potential to be a useful player. maybe even a starter, but no team will actually give up value to get players like that when they can just have them for free off waivers
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Why not?
He’s got power, he plays reasonable defence, he takes walks. Those are talents. He’s improved his hitting substantially every year while moving up a level: declining Ks and increasing ISO.
His career path is very odd, but I’d actually prefer Loewen as our 4th outfielder over Rajai Davis in terms of upside and potential value.
strikes out a lot
and I don’t see that improving if he moves up to the MLB. his power is okay but not outstanding. he’s probably a 1-win player, but Davis is already under contract so he’s not going anywhere (particularly because he has no trade value)
Davis
There seem to be a lot of centre fielders floating about these days, so Rajai Davis isn’t likely to be in great demand, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him traded anyway. The Jays don’t have much use for him, he’s relatively cheap, and would be a good fourth outfielder for many teams.
probably, but not yet
not after the season he just had. if Davis can have a hot couple of months to start 2012 (and Loewen is still around!) I’d be surprised if they don’t trade Rajai
what levels do you guys see our prospect catchers playing next year? d’Arnaud playing in Vegas and Gomes playing NH?
"What's so special about Lou Gehrig? Shouldn't EVERY Yankee have a disease named after him? "
just a guess
but I think we see Cooper, McDade, Gomes and d’Arnaud all in Vegas, with all getting DH starts and Gomes backing up d’Arnaud. AJ Jimenez will be in Manchester, so Gomes wouldn’t be significantly better off there.
he could very well be at peak value
if you can convince him that he’s just a late bloomer and look at his AAA numbers
This year's "out of nowhere" guys
But should be considered decent prospects now: Nestor Molina, Mitchell Taylor & Sean Nolin
All three put up good numbers, and are definitely now on the map. Nolin and Taylor were our 6th & 7th round draft picks last year. It’ll be interesting to see how the prospect mavens evaluate them.
It’ll be interesting to see who emerges from the system next year.
Molina seems like the real deal
He totally dominated AA in his short stint there. The one concern is his durability and his problematic mechanics.
Taylor had some very dominant starts and has the necessary upside to be ranked in the top 15 of this system. The problem here is that he was sent home early for disciplinary reasons, and I don’t like the sound of that at all.
Sean Nolin did well, but was pretty old for the level and with his (supposedly) lesser stuff I’d like to see him do well at AA before ranking him with the “upside guys”.
I’d agree with your comments on Molina & Taylor.
Regarding Nolin, I’d say that 21 is pretty average for the Midwest League (see: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2009/09/minor-league-averages-2009/ ) While his stuff isn’t overwhelming (though his pitching coach has said he has topped out at 94), the results are promising. He obviously isn’t a top-20 prospect for us, but he’s a sleeper, and shows the depth of the Blue Jays system.

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