Consider the Bullpen
by gabrielsyme on Oct 22, 2011 4:25 AM EDT
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PrintIn the aftermath of the exciting news that AA has picked up Jesse Chavez off of waivers, it is as good a time as any to consider how the Blue Jays bullpen might look next year, and how we might want it to look.
In the past few seasons, Alex Anthopoulos has treated the bullpen as an opportunity to store arms that might yield a compensation pick (Kevin Gregg, Frank Francisco) or become of value on the trade market (Octavio Dotel), and while this pattern might continue to a certain extent, changes to the free agent compensation system and disappointment with bullpen performance may cause major changes. Should the Jays continue to see the pen as a store of value, or do we need to concentrate on performance to be competitive next year?
The Holdovers
Casey Janssen had a career year for the Jays this past year, and will be back in 2012, and could be a serviceable set-up man. Luis Perez looked serviceable, was far stronger against lefties than righthanders, and is the only left-handed option remaining on the Jays' 40-man roster. Jesse Litsch looked great out of the bullpen, and Villanueva was good as a long-man. Joel Carreno looked great in a limited sample, but the Jays have the option of keeping him starting in Vegas to see if he can succeed in that role. Shawn Camp could conceivably return if the Jays offer arbitration and Camp accepts (Camp is ranked as a type-B, and so could return a pick if arbitration is offered). That's a fair number of serviceable arms, but none who stand out as relief aces, with the possible exception of Janssen.
Free Agent Lefthanders
The Jays appear to be at least 2 pitchers short of a full bullpen. They only have one southpaw, so a leftie free-agent would seem likely. Unfortunately, there aren't a lot of good left-handed options on the market. The best is probably Darren Oliver, who though ancient, is still quite good - but he's also a Type-A, and wouldn't be considered unless the Jays sign another Type-A. Mike Gonzalez and Jeremy Affeldt are also respectable options. George Sherrill, Javier Lopez, Arthur Rhodes and Hideki Okajima round out the free agent pool, but all appear to be decidedly into their declines. If the Jays are confident in Perez perhaps they take a flyer on a player like Okajima; otherwise they could take a run at Affeldt.
Free Agent Righthanders
This is where things get interesting. Here we have our big-name closers: Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Francisco Rodriguez, Ryan Madson, Matt Capps, Joe Nathan. All but Nathan are type-A's, so the Jays may be reluctant to sign any. There are also some interesting power-arm options: Jonathan Broxton, Joel Zumaya and Kerry Wood, and plenty of serviceable arms. If the Jays sign Fielder or Pujols, it becomes a fair bit more likely we go after one of the closer candidates; if not, Nathan is probably the best option.
Depth
Jesse Chavez is fairly emblematic of the sort of depth the Jays likely will stock in Las Vegas, waiting on injury or ineffectiveness. Danny Farquhar and Chad Beck will also likely await the call from Toronto. The Jays are also likely to sign a few veterans to minor league contracts.
Wildcards
Any of our existing bullpen arms are potential trade pieces in anything Anthopoulos gins up over this offseason; and we might acquire a bullpen arm or two in trades as well. There is also the possibility that one of our existing starters ends up in the bullpen: Brett Cecil seems the most likely to be an odd man out.
What Might Be?
A realistic bullpen might look like this:
Kerry Wood
Jonathan Broxton
Jeremy Affeldt
Casey Janssen
Luis Perez
Jesse Litsch
Joel Carreno
I'm thinking at least one of our incumbent relievers will be traded over the offseason: Villanueva's solid work filling in as a starter makes him the most likely guy to be traded away, but it could be anyone. Neither Wood nor Broxton are sure-fire effective closers, but neither is Nathan at the age of 37 continuing a recovery from Tommy John surgery; but one of Wood and Broxton is likely to have a good year, and both might turn into valuable trade pieces at the deadline. Affeldt has been pretty average, but we need another lefty and, as a ground-ball pitcher, he's the best option for the Rogers Centre.
Disagree? Who should we really go after? Ought we to give a substantial contract to one of the proven closers? and if so, who would you prefer?
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an upgrade in the starting rotation could improve the pen
I really think Cecil needs to be bumped out of the starting rotation. By doing so and putting him in the pen, you’ve just got yourself one of the better left handed relievers in the league. You’ve just replaced the void left by Zep’s departure. It’s a necessary move, in my opinion and I think it’d eventually serve Cecil well, too.
Also, Perez is out of options, so he’s got an edge, in terms of being a 2nd LHP in the pen, at least to start the year.
So I think the Jays will indeed go after a closer-type, but obviously not a type A. Some of the type A’s you list above, might not be offered arbitration. Maybe they go after one of those. I have no idea which closer ends up with the Jays.
Closer
Janssen
Cecil
Litsch
Villanueva
Carreno
Perez
That’s a solid bullpen, in my opinion
but if Cecil can return to 2010 form, or even a little worse
he’s actually a very good 4th or 5th starter. he’s not going to be a top of the rotation guy, but he’s pretty solid and can eat innings. you lose a lot of his strengths by moving him to the bullpen, though he’d likely be quite a bit more effective
i think cecil+litsch could be a two-headed monster in the bullpen
they’re both mediocre starters with fairly large platoon splits. that means as relievers they’re probably both absolutely dominant against same-handed batters, and effective against opposite-handed batters.
if we could get them each ~100 innings out of the pen in a variety of medium to high leverage situations, i think they could be very valuable.
100 innings is a ton
I don’t think that would happen, isn’t a really large number of innings for even top relievers around 75?
tops in 2010 in IP among RPs is Aceves with 93
then Jim Johnson with 91. I’d think we could get 160 innings out of the two of them combined; there’s basically no chance of 100 out of either one (in 2010 the IP leader was Marmol with 77)
given some more time to think about it, though
I think Cecil, Litsch and Janssen (and FF, should he accept arbitration) would make a dominant (and not-too-overworked!) high-leverage relief corps. it would give us of Romero/Morrow/Alvarez/McGowan/Drabek(?) which doesn’t look so hot. if we sign Darvish, though, it would look like Romero/Morrow/Darvish/Alvarez then McGowan/Drabek as 5/6, which is a lot better. so unless the Jays acquire a starter (Wilson fitting the bill as well) I don’t think Cecil should move to the ’pen
they've both thrown 150+ in a year as a starter
why couldn’t they do 2/3 of that as a reliever?
because every other pitcher, even converted starters, don't
I don’t know the physiology behind it, but I’d imagine even if they could throw 100 innings the manager wouldn’t do it
Reliever typically means you don't pitch more innings than a starter
A good rotation the starter hopefully goes an average of 6 innings a game, so that leaves 3 for the relievers. 1 will typically go to the closer or set up man depending on the span of the score.
2×162 = 324 between the other 5 guys = 64 innings each. That assumes you use the same 5 guys all season with no injuries and that the innings are split evenly.
I know that’s terrible math and Pika or Benk probably have actual numbers but that’s the logic behind Brett Cecil and Litsch not being able to throw 100 each. The majority of the innings go to the starters, the odd complete game, injuries in the bullpen, shared playing time. A bunch of factors.
I’m still strongly opposed to Cecil in the bullpen. He was only 24 last season, the same age as rookie Eric Thames.
If you compare Ricky to Cecil who had the down year at the same age, you could argue Cecil did better. Less walks, xFIP was within 0.4, other things. Not to compare the two, but its not like every pitcher has to dominate at 24 to be dominant. I would exercise patience with him, give him at least 1 more year. He just needs to get his ground ball rate up and allow less Home runs.
but that's only been the norm for the past 15 years or so
top relievers used to routinely pitch well over 100IP in a season. Mark Eichorn threw 157 innings for the 1986 Blue Jays and put up a 1.72ERA (2.17 FIP). He missed out on winning the ERA title by just 5 IP. That same season, Roger McDowell, Ron Robinson, Greg Harris and Kent Tekulve all threw 110IP or more, and 9 other guys threw 100-110IP.
If you have a good reliever whose arm has shown that it can handle a full season’s worth of innings, there’s no reason that guy shouldn’t be able to run out for 100+IP out of the bullpen through multiple-inning appearances, especially if he’s good enough to throw in high-leverage situations.
Its so unheard of nowadays
That I’m willing to bet against Cecil or Litsch throwing 100+ next season.
yea i'd bet against it too
but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t easily do it. i mean, they’re both capable of pitching 6 innings every 5 days. certainly they’re capable of throwing of 2 innings every 3 days.
don't forget the "warm-ups"
You have to remember that a reliever pitches a lot more “warm-up” innings than a starter. They don’t count in the stats, but every time the manager calls for him to get up and warm up, that takes a toll on his arm. Managers take this into account, and thus it is very rare for any relievers to top 90 in-game innings
yeah, I think this is likely true
though it doesn’t really say anything about how relievers like Eichhorn were able to do it so recently
what down year by ricky are you referring to?
he had a great year in the minors in ’06, then was brutal in 07 and 08. then in 09 he somehow figured everything out and has been an above average mlb pitcher ever since.
If you think 4.3 ERA with 11 baserunners per 9 innings is good
Then yeah he never had a down year. But last year Cecil threw a very similar 4.7 ERA with 9.5 baserunners at age 24. Im just saying in dumbed down stats they look similar.
Im hugely against moving Cecil to the bullpen. He hasnt shown he cant be decent yet.
wait, what? Romero's 2010?
the season with 210 IP, a 3.64 FIP/xFIP and 3.79 SIERA, and 55 GB%? that’s a down year?
2009
which was still pretty good
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
Yeah the season when he was 24
But he allowed more walks and less hits than Cecil did at the same age. Opponents hit .252 against Cecil and .282 against Romero (Both aged 24). The only real area where Cecil did himself in was the home run balls. He allowed a LOT. If he keeps the ball down and improves even in the slightest he can be a dominant pitcher (see Texas)
My only real point coming out of this is not that Cecil will in fact follow the same path as Romero. But there is no point designating him for the pen’ after he showed a very average season in 2011 at age 24. Some pitchers in the system are older than Cecil yet we say they have a higher ceiling. I’m just trying to say is Cecil will improve.
There's more to it than just numbers (which sounds hypocritical coming from myself)
Romero has high velocity, induces more groundballs, and strikes out more hitters. Cecil is only better at limiting walks, and even then he’s around league average.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
It's all about the heat, baby.
Despite everyone drilling the opposite into Jays fans this past year, it all depends on how fast Cecil can throw the ball. There’s no reason why a guy who has thrown in the low 90s for the last 5 years or so should irrevocably move into the high 80s.
He still has the ability to be an above-average starting pitcher, and hopefully he gets the opportunity if his velocity comes back.
by gabrielsyme on Oct 25, 2011 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Relevant link is relevant
Fastball velocity vs. RA performance
There's something delightful about Joe Buck saying "Coke deals with Hamilton"
I get what you guys are saying
But Brett threw his FB for an average of 90.1 MPH last season (2010) (I wonder what it is post call up) and Ricky they his for average of 91.8.
Not too much of a difference. Thanks for the link though Gerse that is an interesting read.
Still, no matter what you tell me, I cannot be convinced Cecil is destined for the pen.
2 MPH at that level is massive
IIRC, it takes you from like 25th percentile in MLB to like 50th-60th
Here's your proof, thanks to the wonders of Excel:
Based on all (non-knuckleballer) qualifying starting pitcher seasons from:
2000-2011:
n = 866, mean = 90.16, weighted mean = 90.26, median = 90.5
Cecil 2010 (90.1 MPH)= 45th percentile
Romero 2009 (91.8 MPH) = 71st percentile
2005-2011:
n = 606, mean = 90.42, weighted mean = 90.56, median = 90.7
Cecil 2010 = 39th percentile
Romero 2009 = 68th percentile
2009-2011:
n = 263, mean = 90.99, weighted mean = 91.14, median = 91.20
Cecil 2010 = 31st percentile
Romero 2009 = 62nd percentile
You had the magnitude of the difference right on.
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
I wasn't being sarcastic when I said
Thanks for the link though Gerse that is an interesting read.
I was legitimately thanking you for the link, I found it interesting.
So please don’t be disrespectful and sarcastic back.
I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.
I’m aware that you were being sincere. There was nothing sarcastic or disrespectful about my response – In response to benk’s post, I went to check what the actual numbers were since he implied that he wasn’t 100% sure. Then I concluded that he had the magnitude correct.
Not seeing the problem here.
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
I broke it down into the 3 groupings
because I found the rise in FB velocity interesting, not because it was an attempt at overkill to make a point.
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
I apologize
I just got that it was a response to Benks.
The stats themselves are not overkill, I was just upset over the last line. I just took it the wrong way. My bad.
No worries.
The last line was just confirming that the difference moves a pitcher up by 25-35 percentiles.
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
Yeah so I was pretty far off :P
If it means any compensation I did find the post interesting :)
I’m just a Cecil fan, I’m hoping for a turnaround season
except the run environment is .5 lower in 2011 than 2009
so 4.3 in 2009 is like 3.8 now, which is like 1 lower than cecil.
try again.
was he really that much better in 2010 (aside from W-L of course)?
he might be good as a 4th or 5th starter, but why limit yourself to that? I don’t know if I’d count any of the Rays starters as 4th or 5th starter-types.
in 2010 he had about a .3 better xFIP
though his SIERAs were almost identical. certainly there was a lot of bad luck in Cecil’s 2011, that’s a big reason why I think he should get at least another half-season’s shot in the rotation
I agree completely with benk
Cecil was 24 last season (Younger than Chad Beck), and showed in some games that he can really pitch (see Texas shutout).
I don’t see why he isn’t treated more like a prospect. I bet he works hard this offseason to try and add a few MPH to avoid being sent back down to AAA this year. I think he needs a longer look/a good chance.
It’s also worth noting he had similar stats to Morrow this season. Nobody talks about converting him even though hes much older.
no, he didn't have similar stats to Morrow
not at all
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
it's not very easy to just add a few MPH
in fact, it’s incredibly difficult. if it weren’t, pitchers would do it more.
pitchers (as a whole) basically start losing velocity from the age of ~23 onwards. it’s the reason why the majority of pitchers have short careers. only the ones that lose it the most slowly and are able to best adapt to lower velocity are the ones that have long careers.
I know, I talk to pitchers.
And most of hard throwing is natural and comes with maturity. Like Vertical it also has natural maxes depending on the player.
He added a few MPH between stints in the MLB (When he was sent down to AAA)
Chad Beck looked quite good in Toronto
Although it’s a small sample size, I say give him a shot in spring training.
MLBTR just listed Kuo as a non-tender candidate
WANT
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
pretty sure he was injured
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
If he's healthy, he's a monster
And he’ll probably cost no more than $3.5 million. Worthwhile risk in my opinion
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
actually, he's very comparable to Francisco
more groundballs and less HRs given up, but the K/BB ratios are quite close
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
his zone% fell 7.5% from 2010 to 2011
which is ridiculous
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
After looking at his stats, I agree
WANT
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
He's definitely among the best relievers in MLB
it’s unfortunate how fragile he is
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Thoughts
Ive always been a fan of Storen from Washington, and i heard rumors about his availability during the trade deadline. He would be a young cheap effective closer, the problem is what would Washington want in return? It may not be realistic but id love to see it happen.
Another two are a pair of former starters who i think can thrive in the bullpen. Erik Bedard, yes a canadian but i dont care about his nationality. He has never threw 200 innings as a starter in his 7 years in the bigs, he’s cracked 150 only twice. He misses a lot of bats, his lefty/righty splits are about the same, next season he’ll be 33 maybe its time to convert to the bullpen? I think its worth a shot, to at least offer and try to convince him.
On a less realistic note, i would wish we could do the same with Bedard as with Rich Harden, again injury prone misses a tonne of bats, i think he’d be phenomenal in the pen, but i think he really wants to stay in the rotation, but maybe you can work something out and convince him of a Villanueva situation, that if someone stumbles or gets injured he’ll be the first to get in the rotation? Again unrealistic but i would love to see it happen. Again i dont care that both of these players are Canadian its just a coincidence, theyre both bullpen projects who miss bats and result in no compensation.
I would love to take a flyer on Broxton, but anyone else surprised that he’s 300 pounds!? He definitely needs to get into shape.
Bedard and Harden
I think both of these guys are interesting, especially since playoff teams thought they were good enough to try to acquire. They would be reasonably cheap and won’t cost draft picks either.
I like that they are Canadian and would like to see an all non-American team. I said that because anyone who mentions a Canadian player get jumped on… FenixL here apparently felt he has to put his disclaimer twice in his post.
The thing about Canadians
We fall in love with locals, like i love Lawrie as much as the next fan but id love him all the same even if he was from the States or the Dominican. While yes its “nice” to have Canadians playing for a Canadian team, i dont believe it should be a reason to go after these guys.
An example is with people getting too carried away with wanting Votto just because he’s Canadian and in turn want him at all costs. He’s a helluva player and thats why we should want him, being Canadian is besides the fact.
absolutely
I would never advocate getting a player because he’s Canadian. if he’s good, get him. if he’s good and Canadian, get him just as much, but run a few more ads on the guy
Moving to the bullpen
I doubt that either Bedard or Harden would be willing to convert to the bullpen. Bedard especially- he pitched 130 effective innings as a starter this past year. There might be a chance on Harden, but as a reliever he’d be in a similar place to Broxton.
Them being Canadian is always nice, but they’re both good players. If we were in need of rotation depth, I’d love to pick up either, but since we’re not I don’t see a role for them on the Jays.
by gabrielsyme on Oct 23, 2011 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
an all non-American team would be kinda bad
to be honest.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
well
not really, I guess. A team of the best Asians, Europeans, Latin Americans and Canadians might be pretty good
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
You Could
probably put together a great team without a single american, but nationality shouldn’t really be an issue when acquiring players and building a team
I was kidding but it would be nice to see
I’d prefer quality players over Canadian players of course but any good Canadian players are fair for discussion I’d think. Bedard and Harden maybe qualify.
One possible advantage of signing Canadians is getting a home-town discount.
And less chance they’ll be griping about the metric system. I don’t know how significant these advantages are, though.
by Defense Counts! on Oct 23, 2011 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I personally think home-town discounts are a myth
But I guess for now its a possibility.
We actually have a ton of good bullpen choices..
So many option for next year..
Janssen
Cecil
Litsch
Villanueva
Carreno
Perez
Uviedo
Beck
Farquhar
Evan Crawford
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
Broxton is likely being scouted
Broxton seems like the type of player that AA would love to get in here and see what Farrell & Co. can do with him, if they figure he’s healthy. Wood, I can’t see happening as he’ll be expensive and his probable output is likely to be less than his proven results
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