Offseason Wish List...
by bunner on Oct 25, 2011 9:50 AM EDT
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The Red Sox are imploding, CC Sabathia could leave NY and the top of the AL East could be up for grabs in 2012 so i say AA goes to Rogers and asks them to open up the vault and build this team to win now!
1. Trade Yunel Escobar, Deck Maguire, Kyle Drabek and maybe another prospect to CIN for Joey Votto
2. Trade Adam Lind to OAK for Andrew Bailey
3. Trade Travis Snider, Anthony Gose, Henderson Alvarez, and another prospect to Seattle for Felix Hernandez
4. Sign Jose Reyes (or Jimmy Rollins)
5. Bring back 2B Kelly Johnson
6. Sign John MacDonald (just because)
7. Sign a lefty RP
Fills the biggest needs the Jays have right now Closer and Starting Pitching and gives a huge upgrade at 1B (and middle of the order) and SS (though maybe a defensive downgrade)...
Obviously this is not going to happen, though the 4 non-blockbuster moves (Lind to OAK, bring back KJ, sign Johnny Mac and bring in a Lefty RP) are moves we could see.
What are some not-so likely and some more likely moves you think will happen?
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Seriously?
1. That’s probably not enough for Felix (and no way Jack Z is going to trade a pitcher to Toronto especially of his caliber after all the grief he got with the Morrow trade.)
2. I’d rather keep Yunel than overpay for a very fragile SS (Rollins or Reyes.) Plus there is no guarantee that the Jays could sign either one.
3. Votto? The Reds have a lot of good young pitchers too. The first piece to any Votto trade would be Brett Lawrie. If he’s not on the list then the Reds ain’t talking and the Jays aren’t going to trade Lawrie.
4. Lind alone isn’t going to get Bailey. The A’s will be asking for the moon for a cost controlled quality “closer.”
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Oct 25, 2011 10:05 AM EDT reply actions
They do, but that's not the tree I'm looking for.
I’m still looking for the Money Tree and the “Supermodel with a good personality who will date me” Tree.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Oct 25, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Let's be honest
You’d be satisfied with just the “Supermodel who will date me” Tree
There's something delightful about Joe Buck saying "Coke deals with Hamilton"
You need the money tree first before you could afford the supermodel with a good personality who will date me tree
Follow me @BBBMinorLeaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Oct 25, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I need the skill tree
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
if every gm was tony regains then maybe
But they’re not so none of this will happen, ur seriously overvaluing our prospects and undervaluing their players
fWAR Since Trade: Shaun Marcum: 2.7 Brett Lawrie: 2.8
Internet Points: 1501
by Bluebirdz on Oct 25, 2011 10:47 AM EDT via iPhone app reply actions
my wish is that we don't trade any future superstar players
unless we absolutely fleece the other team in the trade
I know its been a long time since we’ve been in the playoffs, but lets not get too crazy, we want to win and then keep winning.
Total Internet Points: 999
to be honest
I’d rather Pujols over Fielder too
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
I guess I would
if we knew the team will definitely be able to support, say, $130M payrolls year after year. if that’s the case, then great, Pooholes it is. if not… that’s a ridiculous albatross in 2019
it doesn’t have to be a ridiculous albatross in 2019. we could just front-load it (ie pay him what we expect him to be worth each year instead of the typical discount at the beginning, albatross at the end model most teams seem to use). something like ~30 million a year for the first few years, then gradually decreasing to ~15 by the last year.
but if we frontload it we lose the ability to invest the "saved" money
that’s why teams backload, knowing it will look like an albatross. if we pay 10/10/10 till year 8 and then 80/80/80 (wouldn’t happen, but still) we get to invest all those saved dollars and earn interest
but presumeably the players know that too
and thus would be willing to take less nominal dollars if it were front-loaded because it would be the same in real dollars.
or maybe i’m giving players (and their agents) too much credit here.
should have added
because if it’s backloaded, you can just give the other team interest income to balance the trade out if you trade the player
Backload it and when it doesn’t make sense anymore, trade him to the Angels.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 25, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
yea
i mean, assuming it’s a “market” rate contract and not a ridiculous overpay.
i just keep imagining pujols and bautista hitting back-to-back…
I'm hoping we dont
I dont want to bring anyone that was part of St. Louis’ club house last year to the Jays to play with Rasmus. Pujols is a terrific player, but he once said "we need to figure a way to get him out of here" of Rasmus. I dont know the whole story… But I dont want to reunite the two
if that were really a problem then just trade rasmus
seriously, you’d rather have rasmus on the team than pujols?
That sounds like the baseball version of a Horror Movie
That wasn’t exactly what I was thinking when I saw the title of this post. I wish that AA makes a couple moves/signings to keep putting this team on track for ongoing success starting in the very near future. The “win now at all costs” strategy leads to implosions like the Red Sox had this year, or disappointments like the Yankees had. Let’s build a team of Jays!
What that might look like: Trade Lind for Alonso; sign Darvish, Broxton, a lefty reliever and another righty (or brink back Franky FrankFrank); Snider and a prospect for Heyward; re-sign KJ (I’ll go with you on that one).. those kinds of moves
"Trade Lind for Alonso" "Snider and a prospect for Heyward"
I lmaoed
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
#3
Am I the only one that thinks that’s too much to give away for Felix? Snider could still be a 30/30 player or maybe 30/20, Gose is our #2 prospect and one of the best OF prospects in all of baseball, Alvarez is a flamethrowing starter who has already proved he can pitch in the bigs quite well. I actually think that would hurt us in the long run. We’ll have no internal depth in OF if we made a trade like that.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
They won't take it anyways
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
even if everything comes together?
I’d say he has an allstar ceiling, though he’s got ways to go
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
I really wanna win, but.
the jays are well on the way to becoming a contending team yr after yr……trading all our prospects is not a good idea.
Crouse and Gose are different
Gose is K-ing a lot at AA, Crouse is K-ing a lot at A
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
Putting aside their relative ages, would you say we should be more concerned with a player having high K-rates at lower levels or at higher?
I think the question is easily answered for college players; but for raw high-schoolers, I think I’d be rather more concerned as high-K rates persist up the org ladder than high levels at the lower levels.
lower
I’ve heard that the jump from high A to AA is the hardest for hitters since pitchers start throwing actually good breaking balls
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
On the other hand
If the high schooler has been good enough to reach higher levels despite the poor K%, he probably has a pretty high ceiling. The payoff might be higher if he does manage to overcome the issue somewhat.
I really have no idea which effect would be stronger.
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
meh
not really; I like Gose but I don’t think with his strikeout and not-that-great contact ability he’s going to be a star
Today
Comment From Gopher
What is Anthony Gose’s Ceiling and most likely result?
4:43
Mike Newman:
If a guy like Victorino or Maybin can post 5ish WAR seasons, then I don’t see why Gose can’t either. His ultimate ceiling is tied closely to his strikeouts/hit tool, but he’s the best athlete I’ve ever scouted and I absolutely love his explosion in all aspects of his game.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 25, 2011 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
right
Even if his bat doesn’t progress he could be a regular just because of the defense and speed. If he can hit, he’ll be a star, but he’s still got a long way to go
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
I don't know who Mike Newman is
but yeah. I’d say his ceiling is about BJ Upton (though quite different players besides the speed/defense). very solid player, not a superstar. there’s also the chance that he struggles a lot with contact in the Majors, though
though of course
there’s the chance that he somehow slashes his strikeout rate and becomes Michael Bourn with power. the more feasible ceiling is Upton though
are you suggesting that gose is lazy?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
/checks baseball-ref
“Born: August 10, 1990 in Paramount, California, US (Age 21)”
Nope.
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
I think you guys are underselling his ceiling
Seems more like Crawford with lower average and 20 hr power
by Matthew Mueller on Oct 25, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually have always thought he might compare favourably to Kenny Lofton
Maybe it’s the lefty bat, the speed, the ability to take a walk and a bit of power but that’s who Gose makes me think of. I think Lofton was better at making contact but he also started minor league ball at 21 at low A ball. Gose is 21 now and put up a decent season at AA. I think there is some serious potential there.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I have higher hopes for Gose
I liked White, but Lofton was a much better player.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I hope for more too
but White would do. Here are White’s fWAR totals for the 91-93 period:
1991 – 6.9
1992 – 6.4
1993 – 5.7
He averaged 23 runs Fld over that 3 year period. I don’t know if Gose is that good defensively though.
For comparison last year Bautista had 54 HR’s and 6.8 fWAR.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Kenny Lofton’s peak WAR was 7.3 . At their best Lofton and White had comparable value.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm, that's interesting
I didn’t know White had such good fWAR numbers for those years. At their peaks, they were pretty similar in value. Lofton just held his value longer.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
White had extreme defensive value though. If Gose is that good at defense he will have a lot of value even if he is just an average offensive player.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I really really really dislike
comparing Minor Leaguers – especially Minor Leaguers who OPSed 763 at AA – to Hall of Famers
I was comparing Gose' minor league numbers to Lofton
Lofton played his first pro season at low A ball at 21. Gose is 21 this year and had a decent season at AA. I’m just saying Gose’ tools strike me as a Lofton-type player.
Why so down on Gose anyway? Law and Karabell (I think it was him, could be wrong) agreed that Gose was the most exciting player in the Arizona Fall League this year and that includes Harper and Trout. Law is not the easiest guy to impress and Gose did it.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
yeah, but Lofton is a weird case
he only started playing baseball in his junior year of college, IIRC.
and I don’t think Gose is a bad player at all. it’s just that guys who are likely to turn into superstars dominate the Minors through and through, and Gose hasn’t done that
He's done well despite being young for each level he's played at
You can’t just look at his numbers and say he hasn’t dominated, you have to adjust for the age level of his competition as well. It’s hard for a guy who just turned 21 in August to do well at AA where the average age is 23-24 and that’s what Gose did.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
What is your definition of a superstar? Is it more than 5 WAR or something higher?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
consistent 5 WAR is a superstar
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
10 years of 5 WAR
you’re a borderline HOF.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
If he is an above average to premier defensive CF he only has to be average offensively to accumulate 4-5 WAR.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
30 run defensive players are exceedingly rare
though he could potentially be worth, say, 12 runs in defense+baserunning which could make him a 4 win player if he hits at all
I was thinking more like +20. With the CF adjustment that would give him a pretty good start on 4-5 WAR.
Brandon Morrow should be following his progress closely…
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
+20 defensive run, in CF, is extremely hard
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
the highest this year was 15.6
with CF adjustment, it’s pretty close, at 17.6 runs, but still, 20+ is really hard,
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
Did you see Tom’s Q&A on MLB Daily Dish?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair...
We are not calling him the second coming of Ricky Henderson…. yet.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Oct 26, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
He should be better because he bats left-handed :)
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Mike Newman
has the Scouting the Sally blog.
He also does a weekly Fangraphs’ prospect chat, which is where the quote is from.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
My [somewhat realistic] Wish List
1. Sign Jim Thome to platoon at DH (see: http://bit.ly/rpt1Hv)
2. Sign Yu Darvish for 7 years
3. Sign relievers Affeldt (Kuo if available), Broxton and Kerry Wood
4. Trade away unnecessary depth (could include Thames, Loewen, Cecil, EE, Lind, Cooper, Villanueva, Litsch) for something, anything.
5. Sign Scutaro to play 2nd if we can’t get Kelly Johnson on a 1-year contract.
All it takes is money, and not ridiculous amounts.
I'd be somewhat surprised
if Darvish actually wants a deal that long. Presumably the “onoz Dice-K failzorz” thing and the presence of the posting fee (primarily this) are going to deflate his salary to some extent.
Not that it makes much sense from the MLB team’s perspective, but I could see him actually preferring a 3 or 4 year deal to a 6 or 7 year deal. If he succeeds here, he enters free agency in his prime years, poised for 15+/yr and enough years on the deal to see out his career. If he flames out, he can always go back to Japan still reasonably young and still very famous and make sufficient boatloads of money there.
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
I don’t think anyone will pay a $45M+ posting fee and then sign him to a three year deal. If the Jays sign him there could be a 5 year deal and then some club options.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 25, 2011 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup
Not that it makes much sense from the MLB team’s perspective
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
Unrealistic for sure
I know it was an unrealistic list, but it was a ‘wish’ list because I really want to see the Jays get into the playoffs in 2012.
As for Pujols/Fielder sweepstakes I think it’s worth exploring for sure. I don’t really see the Red Sox or Yankees getting involved to drive up the prices as they both have all-star 1B’s and it’s not like they want to pay that much for a DH but ultimately the prices will be too high for the Jays. I do think it’s time to move on from Adam Lind and get something in return now, to replace him EE could be kept at 1B (or Snider moved there?) and possibly sign David Oritz (or Jim Thome as mentioned above) to DH.
Aside from upgrading at 1B, some pitching would be nice both in the rotation and back end of the bullpen. I’d be inclined to pass on big $ closers and go after Broxton on a low-risk deal, bring in a lefty RP and a starter. As for Darvish, I think this is where the Jays will get out-bid by the Yankees…The FA class of starters is pretty weak so they will likely go all-out for Darvish.
If the Jays get upgrades at 1B/DH, SP and RP along with some progression out of Thames/Snider in LF, Rasmus in CF and no one else having a significantly worse year in 2012 then they did in 2011 I see September 2012 as being a fun month for Toronto baseball fans.
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