Joe Nathan?
by Tom Dakers on Oct 26, 2011 3:20 PM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions
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PrintThe Twins declined Joe Nathan's $12.5 million option and he has said he would like to be a closer, not a setup man. Do you think the Jays should go after him?
The Twins are interested in keeping him, just not at $12.5 million, which I can understand. He isn't an A or B type reliever, coming off Tommy John surgery in 2010. He had a bit of an up and down year but held batters to a .207/263/.391 line in the second half of the year, with 5 walks and 22 strikeouts in 23 innings.
I'm not sure how big a contract he is expecting, maybe just a year and an option. If he has a good season he could be an Type A or B free agent next year, we could end up with draft pick.
The downside is that he turns 37 next month and we can't be sure he'll be the pitcher he has been in the past. We might sign him and have him turn out to have a season like Jon Rauch's 2010.
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It all depends on the price
For $2-4MM I think he could be a good/great one year addition for the team. Anything more and the risk is a little too high.
Can't wait for some October Baseball.
@VagabondBansal
no way he signs for $4M
he was worth 12 WAR over 6 seasons from 2005-2011. I’d be happy with a 5-6M deal, maybe with a team option (though I don’t know if he’d do that either)
things changed since 2005...
Nathan’s worth will be decide by the length of the line of suitors, the depth of their wallets, and the look of desperation in their eyes, and NOT by accumulated WAR.
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Vagabond has identified the exact problem with this poll
Should the Jays sign Joe Nathan for $1? Absolutely. it would be idiotic to not do so. Should the Jays sign Joe Nathan for $20 million? It would be idiotic to do so.
Now, if the poll had been “Should the Jays sign Joe Nathan for $8 million for next season?”, how many of you would say yes?
Wow, I want to interview this guy!
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wanna see Joe's birth certificate.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Oct 26, 2011 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It was written in cinnabar pigment on parchment
Follow me @BBBMinorLeaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Oct 26, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Vampires should be good at pitching, right?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
not in day games though....
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Another reason to play for the Jays :)
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 27, 2011 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions
If he comes at a Rauch price, sure. I like the idea of adding him if his arm still has some life, because his experience will be a side benefit to a likely young bullpen. But I think someone will offer something a little higher on his name alone.
by dexfarkin on Oct 26, 2011 3:26 PM EDT via iPhone app reply actions 1 recs
I wouldn't
velocity is down, SwStr% is down, Contact% is up, and not a good groundballer. If he was 10 years younger you could say it was 2011 was an aberration, or you could say it’s because of the TJ, but I wouldn’t touch him.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
shockingly, I agree with Pikachu
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Depends on the price
Another risky player that could be available is Grady Sizemore.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 3:37 PM EDT reply actions
I was thinking DH/CF or 4th OF. Or just in the OF when Morrow starts because he is a fly ball pitcher.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Does that also delay our Votto acquisiton by one day?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
a Cardinals' win might delay it even more... ;-p
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Yes please!
He’s only 1 season removed from a 6 year stretch that ranks as some of the best relief pitching of all time. I don’t expect him to be THAT good again but his numbers were absolutely mind-blowing. In 2006 his WHIP was 0.790. I’ve never seen a number that low.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
2 seasons removed
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
Sure, why not?
If he bounces back and is the Nathan of old, you’ve got a valuable asset at the trade deadline (or if the Jays are in the playoff hunt, he makes the bullpen better). If he flops, it’s just money and the Jays will probably be spending some coin on relievers this offseason anyway.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
If you can for the right price, sure.
I tend to agree with Dexfarkin re: cost (Rauch price). I’d maybe consider a $5m/yr plus mutual option for a 2nd. That said, I doubt that will get it done. Someone who misses out on one of the big closers will probably give him $8m/yr or guaranteed 2 years, and I probably wouldn’t be that interested in that case.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
No thanks on Nathan.
I would much rather go after Jonathon Broxton, he’s younger, proven, got amazing stuff, and is a buy low option from bad performance then injury.
I kinda agree
They are both quite concerning, but Broxton probably has the higher upside at this point in their respective careers, and will likely cost less. I suspect the real question is what the the medical reports say, and what the Jays’ scouts report.
Should be interested
It usually takes a year for a player to regain his form after Tommy John, so I would expect something similar to .207/263/.391 in 2012. Would be a good fit at a right price
awesome
he’ll be very useful during interleague
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
Im always a fan
of buying low on a player and taking chances on players coming back form injury, you sign him for a year cheap maybe a club option for a second year and see how it goes, he has talent even at 37 he can be effective
I'm not a big fan of
RP that say they aren’t interested in being set up guys. I can understand not wanting to sign with a team that has an established closer but whether you pitch in the 8th or 9th should be based on your performance.
by Nadia on Oct 26, 2011 5:20 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Second that
a reliever comes out of the pen when his manager tells him to come out of the pen.
Ask TLR…
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
I believe this is more posturing than anything else
If you pull a Yankee’s, and offer him “Closer” money, to set-up. I think he’ll gladly do it.
Can't wait for some October Baseball.
@VagabondBansal
5 Questions with Blue Jays' Expert Tom Dakers
Here is the link
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 5:53 PM EDT reply actions
At this point, I'd rather keep Frank Frank
If it were Pre 2009 Nathan then I’d say hell yeah. Now a 36 year old RP one year removed from TJ. Probably want him as a setup guy for sure but he doesn’t want that so pass.
Broxton looks like someone to take a look at, but I’m not sure about his mental toughness especially against the AL East. He wasn’t the same guy after he blew that save against the Yanks.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Oct 26, 2011 6:12 PM EDT reply actions
If we get a FF equivalent then we get a draft pick.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably not
Francisco was pretty decent for both 2010 and 2011. Nathan had a pretty bad 2010, he’ll have to be really good to be worth type B.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
What I meant is that if we sign FF, then we don’t get compensation for him :)
by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 26, 2011 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd be more concerned about his velocity than mental toughness
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
2mph loss is pretty serious
However it might mean he threw his fastball with more movement and command like Koufax did (not to say Broxton was Koufax.)
His 2010 was looking like a world beater till he got a world beating by the Yanks.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Oct 26, 2011 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Papelbon?
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011, Sept. 28, 2011 wasn't bad either.
7 members waiting for Aaron Hill's return...
k..k..kk..kill me
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
by Pikachu on Oct 26, 2011 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
definitely go for it
1 – He does not cost us a pick
2 – We need help at the back end.
3 – If we are in it, we keep him and use the option. Out of the race we trade him
For up to 6 – 7M for one year and a club option, I definitely take this this risk.
I'd do it
I’d even go as far as 6 million for him. Take a gamble, I think it’s worth it. If he sucks, he’s still less than half what BJ Ryan cost to send home(poor reasoning I know, but Im pretty confident this won’t happen), and if he lives up to expectations, hopefully that results in a couple extra home games at the end of the year that will help pay for him.
Imagine being able to purchase a 1st round pick
With a return to form, WE CAN. I was at the game he got Lind to ground out with the bases loaded to lose the game. He looked fine.
He could look like Cy Young for all I care
His results have been way off.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
Are you sure about that game
I saw that game on TV and I know it was his first game back from TJ, but he was awful.
Nathan’s line was 1IP 2H 1R 1ER 2BB 0K 31 pitches 16 balls 15 strikes does not look fine. It looks more Kevin Greggian.
Lind nearly bounced that 1st pitch slider down in the 1st base line for a game winner.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Oct 26, 2011 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember the game vividly, I was right behind home plate
the stats are misleading, Mike Mccoy hit a dead quail to right for a base hit. The only run allowed was a sac fly. He (Nathan) smartly walked Bautista and then got Lind for the Save. Talk about feeling pressure it was his first game situation in a LONG time.
Not to say I think hes great or anything but hes an upgrade on Rauch and has a very decent chance of landing us draft picks, thats what I like most
I went back to the box score to jar my memories of that game
He couldn’t find the plate with Juan Rivera (walked him on 5 pitches)
IIRC he was actually trying to get Jose out, and walked him on a 3-2 pitch. The reason why Adam swung at the first pitch was because Nathan’s control/command was awful compared to what it was before. Nathan fooled him with a first pitch slider as Lind was sitting on a 1st pitch get me over fastball.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Oct 26, 2011 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh god man, that atmosphere was incredible.
That final out was such a let down.
by Adamthebluejay on Oct 26, 2011 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Do it
we need good relievers, he can be just as good as some of the premium guys for half the price. At worst hes like Rauch and we lose 5-7 million. At best he returns to form and vastly improves our bullpen
Actually, I changed my mind
after a godawful April, he wasn’t really that bad. I wouldn’t mind him on a 1 year deal
If you don't like video game music, I don't think we can be friends.
I am a no because I would like the Jays to start searching for someone that could realistically handle the position for more than a year. I don’t think the Jays will be able to get Nathan in one of the team friendly contracts where you get a draft pick when he is done.
If they can get him to sign one of those contracts that turns into easy draft pick compensation, then sure.
but we know how long term contracts for relievers tend to work out
unless you mean, like, convert Alvarez to closer, which would almost definitely be a bad idea
He's 37
And coming off major surgery. I think his best years are behind him. I don’t see him being any better than what we have now. Regardless of how good his numbers used to be. We need bullpen help, but we can’t be desperate.
You think his best years are behind him?
Well yes they are!
That has nothing to do with this question though, unless the Jays pay big $$ on a multi-year deal, which they wouldn’t do.
.313/.400/.565
PLEASE NO!
He’s too expensive, old and inconsistent to be even considered. Lots of young guns in our system that could be tried. Remember BJ?
by Marcos Montenegro on Oct 27, 2011 8:10 AM EDT reply actions
Not quite the same situation as BJ Ryan,
Definitely wouldn’t be 5 year deal.
Not coming off a career year
Not considered a top closer in the game at the moment
Older
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
i voted yes
he was terrible in the first part of the year, then went on the DL, and came back looking more or less like the nathan of old. the difference: his velocity was way up after he came from the DL: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=1122&position=P&pitch=FA
i would expect him to be much closer to the pitcher he was in the 2nd half of last year than the pitcher he was in the 1st half.
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