Measure What We've Lost: Bluebird Banter End of 2011 Dangling Conversation, Part II

by hugo on Oct 28, 2011 6:45 AM EDT in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis

Part I is here.

Hugo: Adam Lind’s season was a big bummer for me. He had it going so well, then got hurt, then returned hot, and then things just fell apart. After two straight subpar seasons and a move to the field didn’t fix things, can the Jays afford to carry Lind as an everyday player in 2012?

Tom: Whether they can or not, I think they are going to, for at least one more year. He wasn’t great against RHP but he was just awful against lefties, I wonder if they will consider platooning him at first with Edwin or someone. I guess this is where I wonder if Farrell has platooning in his little bag of strategies? He didn’t show me that he knows how to do it.

Hugo: Yes, Lind really wasn’t too bad against righties. He only OPSed .771 against them, which isn’t particularly good, and only walked 7% of the time, which isn’t great, but he was dragged down by a .251 BABIP against righties, which is just poor luck since he was clearly hitting the ball much better against them than against lefties (against whom he had a .301 BABIP. Lind also hada 21.7 LD% against all pitching, which is actually quite good. It was his approach that killed him. Swinging at over 37% of pitches outside the strike zone just isn’t going to get it done. Only 42% of pitches to Lind last season were in the strike zone. He simply has to adjust and lay off the garbage or he will continue to struggle and pitchers will not come over the plate. On the other hand, those numbers are skewed by his absolutely appalling showing against lefties. If he was used in a platoon role, I think he could be successful.

Tom: What do you think the chances are that he will be used that way?

jessef: Unlikely, at least for a while.

JohnnyG: I don’t want to count Lind out, but something has completely changed with the guy. I think he would be mostly successful in the platoon role that Hugo mentioned but I agree with Jesse that it is unlikely to happen. Add into the equation that it seems unlikely that the Jays go out and get one of the big name free agents in the market and it looks like we are looking at another year of primarily Lind at first with Edwin filling in more and more.

Hugo: Edwin Encarnacion, had sort of the opposite season from Lind. He started awful but really did a nice job at the plate over the second half of the year. Should the Jays bring Edwin back, and if so, in what role?

Tom: I’d like to see him back, but I’m a fan. I could see him platooning with Lind and DHing, and being around to fill in when Brett Lawrie takes another ball of his hand.

I think they messed up badly with Edwin this year. In spring training they tell him he isn’t going to play third, have him play some first and DH. All is going well, then 2 days before the season starts they say ‘Ok Edwin, you are playing third’. And then they are surprised when it doesn’t go well. If there is a guy that needed all the work he could get at a position during spring training it was Edwin. Then, he has a couple of bad games at third, and they bench him for Jayson Nix. If there is a bigger sign that a team doesn’t know what it is doing than giving Jayson Nix at bats, I’m not sure what it could be.

jessef: At just $3.5 M for 2012, I can’t see them not picking up his option. The trouble with Edwin is that he hits plenty for a third baseman but third is already occupied and his trade value is limited because his ability to play third is obviously in question. Unless he can hit like he did in the second half, I can’t see a competitive team wanting to give him 600 plate appearances as a first baseman or DH. If he can hit like that (wRC+ of 128 in June, 152 in July, 163 in August, and 81 in September), he can play anywhere, but he hasn’t hit like that for a full season.

JohnnyG: Given the fairly cheap option I think it is a no-brainer to bring back Edwin. What his role with the team will be? Who Knows, as mentioned before I think it would best to platoon him with Lind and DH but I also heard that the team is trying him out in LF as well. What the hell? LF? We don’t have enough bodies out there already with Snider, Thames and Loewen? We have to add to Edwin to the equation? Bad call IMO.

Tom: I don’t think ‘trying him out as a LF’ is quite what they were doing. More like practice him there a bit so he could maybe go out there in an emergency. With us only having a couple of guy on the bench, at various times this season. EE

JohnnyG: So what you’re saying is we need more utility players....

Tom: Or that maybe we could live with less than 8 relievers.

Hugo: Edwin can hit, and that’s worth $3.5 milion. In particularly, his skill against lefties is a nice balance for guys like Lind and Thames. I agree with jessef that he’s not exactly ideal as an everyday DH, but I think he’s a fine, risk-free, and inexpensive option until something better comes along.

Johnny: Better..... like Fielder?

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Comments

platooning Lind and EE might be a good idea.

Getting Pujols might be even better…

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by HESS2479 on Oct 28, 2011 7:02 AM EDT reply actions

I think EE will be the DH until another guy like Loewen, Snider, or Cooper leapfrogs Edwin’s offensive abilities. Then Edwin will primarily be a backup.

by Joey P on Oct 28, 2011 7:34 AM EDT reply actions

We could use Edwin in LF

Right now we have to start TWO of Thames, Snider and Lind against LHP. That simply should not be happening (Thames and Lind should never be playing against LHP). If Edwin can play a bit of LF, we can acquire a RH 1B/DH that can assist in the platoon.

Andruw Jones would be perfect, in my opinion. Or, better, Nick Swisher (if the Yanks decline his option, which appears to be an increasing possibility).

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by Jevant on Oct 28, 2011 8:06 AM EDT reply actions

And this morning...

…this.

It strikes me as increasing likely that Swisher will be available. I really hope AA is ready to strike.

I would give him $30m/3yrs without hesitation.

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by Jevant on Oct 28, 2011 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions

I doubt the Yankees will give him up.

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by Tom Dakers on Oct 28, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions

MLB Trade Rumors

says the Yankees are likely to pass on Beltran and retain Swisher.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Oct 28, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

yes sir!

Better….. like Fielder?

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Oct 28, 2011 8:09 AM EDT reply actions

Of course

This would be the reason to be cautious about the length

by siggian on Oct 28, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Didn't see your post...

…and I put up a fanshot linking to the article.

Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic

by bluejaysstatsgeek on Oct 28, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

from the same article

this is the reason for the Jays do sign him:

“Unless I am running a team that is a serious World Series contender over the next three seasons (flags fly forever).”

I think signing Fielder and retaining Johnson puts the Jays in that picture during the next 3 years when Bautista is likely to still be a top player.

by SuckaMD on Oct 28, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Beeston said “No Fielder!” (but maybe Ortiz).

See interview on the Fan http://www.fan590.com/ondemand/media.jsp?content=20111028_163927_9960

by interestingmonkey on Oct 28, 2011 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

More generally, sounds like Beeston won’t go for 8+ year contracts.

He also said Farrell is happy in Toronto, pretty emphatically, which is good.

by interestingmonkey on Oct 28, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm pretty sure he said "no Fielder for 10 years"

if we signed him to a 10 year deal even I’d be upset. I don’t think he necessarily ruled out a 5-7 year deal though

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by benk on Oct 29, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

EE's achey breaky shoulder...

Near the end of 11 EE was fighting a bad shoulder. SO bad they shut him down. I remember seeing his wince – seriously wince – when he’d swing and miss. BEFORE – I picked up EE’s option I’d have his shoulder checked by the best shoulder Doctor around.

Lind and EE are both adequate in the NL – neither are adequate in the AL East.

We’ve TWO potential top of the line scary bada@@ bats: Bautista and Lawrie. Escobar is adequate for the AL East, JP might develop into being adequate for a serious contender in our division. All our other bats are suspect.

by Mylegacy on Oct 28, 2011 2:36 PM EDT reply actions

I disagree with Escobar being simply adequate

Marco Scutaro, Red Sox, 2.9fWAR,
Derek Jeter, Yankees, 2.3fWAR
Sean Rodriquez, Rays, 2.3fWAR
JJ Hardy, Orioles, 4.8fWAR
Yunel Escobar, Jays, 4.3fWAR.

Escobar was the 2nd best in the division, 7th best in MLB, and was the best hitting SS in the AL East (Hardy had lots of HR and good defense, but only a .310 OBP that really brought down his offensive value).

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Oct 28, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Escobar's fWAR is slightly misleading

because his UZR is so much lower than his other defensive metrics. UZR rates him as a +1 ~ +4 run defender, but I think he’s more of a +5 ~ +10 run defender, similar to Hardy.

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by Pikachu on Oct 28, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Playoffs!!!!1 - I sort of agree...

Escobar is slightly better than adequate in the AL East – for a SS. However, he is well short of being a “scary bada@@” bat – which was what I was referring to.

by Mylegacy on Oct 28, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

sure

but there’s only like 3 scary bada$$ bats at SS in the entire MLB, and one of them is quickly falling off the map

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by Pikachu on Oct 28, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

many not a scary bada@@ bat

but definitely a scary bada@@ player. outside of tulo, is there any shortstop in baseball you’d definitely rather have than escobar? there’s a few guys around that level (alexei, hanley, reyes), but escobar is a legit star. he might not have a lot of power but he’s a perfect lead-off hitter and somewhere between above average and great defensively.

by Jono411 on Oct 28, 2011 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions