The rumor mill has it that the Jays might be interested in signing David Ortiz. 

Perhaps the biggest negative in such a signing is that, as Ortiz is a type-A free agent, the Jays would lose their first-round draft pick (#17) in 2012 to the Sox.

There is no question that a first-rounder is valuable.  But how valuable?  Or, to put it another way, if the Jays wanted Ortiz (or another Type A) should the loss of that pick be a deal-stopper?

Draft picks – other than the first few – are a lottery ticket.  Sometimes they pay off big, but more often they do not.  To illustrate that point, here is a list of recent 17th-overall draft picks:

   2000        Ben Diggins, Dodgers

   2001        Dan Denham, Cleveland

   2002        Cole Hamels, Philly

   2003        David Murphy, Boston

   2004        Scott Elbert, Dodgers

   2005        C. J. Henry, Yankees

   2006        Matt Antonelli, Padres

   2007        Blake Beavan, Texas

Of those picks, only Hamels has ever been an all-star.  Most of the others never had significant MLB time.

Would I trade a 19-year-old Cole Hamels for a couple of years of a David Ortiz?  Probably not – if I knew that was what I was getting.  But would I trade a one-chance-in-eight at getting a Hamels?  Very possibly.  Especially if I already had a strong farm system.

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As an aside – another downside that I see in blogs is that, by giving up the two draft picks, the Jays would be helping a Division rival.  I do not see the logic in that.  Ortiz will almost certainly be signed by somebody, and Boston will get their picks anyway.