Bluebird Banter Top Prospect Review: 11-20
We took a look at how our top ten prospect did this season back here. Now it is time to look at the guys that were 11-20 on our list.
11. Henderson Alvarez: What a terrific season for Henderson. He started it in Dunedin and finished in Toronto. In between he had 14 starts and 1 relief appearance at New Hampshire, going 8 and 4 with a 2.86 ERA there. He struck out 66 and walked just 17 in 88 innings there. For the Jays, he's had 10 starts, going 1-3 with a 3.53 ERA with 40 k and 8 walks in 63.2 innings. That's less than a walk a start. Pretty amazing. He is a ground ball throwing machine, which is a good thing. You have to figure that he has a great shot of coming out of spring training with a job in the rotation.
12. Aaron Sanchez: Sanchez started the year at Bluefield and finished at Vancouver, mostly to bolster the Canadian's playoff team. Aaron was one of our first round picks last year. He made 6 starts and 5 relief appearances for Bluefield, getting a 3-2 record, with a 5.48 ERA with 43 strikeouts and 18 walks in 42.2 innings. He's just turned 19, so he's a long from the majors yet, but he's had a good start to his pro career. He is 6'4" and just 190lb, so he has a fair bit of filling out to do. He gets a bunch of ground balls.
13. Eric Thames: Another prospect who had a great year. He hit .352/.423/.610 with 7 home runs and 45 RBI in 53 games in Vegas then got called up to Toronto where he hit .262/.313/.456 with 12 home runs in 95 games. Really, a heck of a rookie season. I'd like to see him get on base a little more, but he's just 24 so we can hope for a little improvement on all his numbers. His defense is, interesting I guess would be the best term. That or awful, but I don't see any reason to think that it won't improve.
14. Asher Wojciechowski: Another one of our first round picks from the 2010 draft. Asher made 22 starts for Dunedin (and 3 relief appearances). He went 11-9 with a 4.70 ERA, with 96 strikeouts and 31 walks in 130.1 innings in his first full pro season. He improved as the season went on. His ERA by month from May on: 6.06, 10.62, 3.97, 2.38 and 3.60. He turns 23 in December. The Jays will likely start him at New Hampshire next year.
15. Chad Jenkins: Our number 1 pick from 2009 started 2011 in Dunedin, going 4-5 there with a 3.07 ERA in 11 starts with 44 strikeouts and 14 walks in 67.1 innings. He was moved up to New Hampshire and went 5-7 with a 4.13 ERA in 16 starts there, picking up 74 k and 27 walks in 100.1 innings. He is another ground ball pitcher, who doesn't walk many. He's among a half dozen pitching prospects that could see some time in Toronto before the end of next season.
16. Moises Sierra: Moises was added to our 40-man roster before the season. He played the season at New Hampshire, and he had an injuries free season. It wasn't a bad year for a 22 year old, in his first season at Double-A, he hit .277/.342/.436 with 18 home runs in 133 games. He is a good defensive player and has a strong arm in the outfield. If things go right for him (and wrong for a few others) he could see some time in Toronto by the end of next year.
17. Noah Syndergaard: Yet another of our first round picks from last year. He played in three different levels in his first real year of pro-ball (he did get into 5 games after signing last year). He started the year at Bluefield and may 5 starts there. Then moved up to Vancouver for 4 more starts and finished with 2 starts in Lansing. In total he made 11 starts, with 2 relief appearances. He was 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA. In 59 innings, he struck out 68 and walked 18 and he gets ground balls. Pretty good for a kid that just turned 19 in August. He looks good. He'll likely start in Lansing next year.
18. Dickie Thon : His season got a late start, since the doctors found a ‘blood disorder' in spring training. He only got into 45 games in the Gulf Coast league, hitting .223/.369/.322 with 3 homers. I figure we'll give him a mulligan for the year and hope that next year is better.
19. Drew Hutchison : Our 15th round draft pick in 2009, he has outperformed his draft level. This year he pitched at 3 different levels. He started at Lansing, making 14 starts, was moved up to Dunedin for 10 starts and then made 3 more starts in New Hampshire. In total he went 14-5, with a 2.53 ERA, with 171 strikeouts with 35 walks in 149.1 innings. He turned 21 back in August.
20. Adonys Cardona : Our $2.8 million international free agent signing from last year. He played in the Gulf Coast League this year, appearing in 10 games, 7 starts. He was 1-3, 4.55 ERA. He struck out 35 and walked 12. He is just 17, so he's a long long way from the majors. Right now he is a hard throwing teenager with a lot of potential.
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Man oh man
Those Hutchison numbers are something else. God love all the pitching talent on this team.
"His defense is...but I don't see any reason to think that it won't improve"
i see people write stuff like this a lot – about a young player’s defense likely to improve. while this obviously happens sometimes, in general players become worse fielders as they age (i think peak defensive age is around 22-23).
if the point is that his UZR/150 is likely to be better than -15.9 going forward, then sure, that’s very likely, since a number that low this year probably means that he was playing defensive below his true talent level, he got a bit unlucky, and got a bit unlucky on UZR’s plays made to runs saved conversion. but i think it’s more likely than not that his true talent defense gets worse going forward than gets better.
can taking bad routes even be fixed?
That seems to be Thames’ biggest problem, he just has no clue how to read the ball, which leads to awkward catches.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
i'm sure it CAN be fixed
but the question is: given that he’s played 3 years of professional baseball in the OF and presumeably many more years in college+high school, what are the odds that he’s going to now suddenly learn how to read the ball? i think the answer to that is: pretty low.
that said, though
Snider was a really poor defender coming out of high school (admittedly less experience in the OF) and he has become a solid-or-better defensive player, so there is potentially hope. I don’t think it’s going to happen though
true
but snider is still younger than thames is. so saying now that thames will likely improve his defense is like us saying next year that snider is likely to improve his defense going forward.
It's not quite the same thing.
Thames has lost a lot more minor-league developmental time than Snider to injuries.
(Presumably,) this could affect his aging curve on the fielding end of things, particularly if many of the problems that he has can be corrected with more repetitions and coaching.
That’s not necessarily the case for Thames, but I do think it has validity an alternative viewpoint to projecting him based on aging curves developed based on (and, consequently, for?) players who have (again, presumably,) been healthier throughout their minor league careers.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Snider's lost a lot of Major League development time to injuries though
and that’s only because he made the MLB so quickly
Sure
He might follow a different aging curve as well. Though it’s also, of course, entirely possible (probable?) that incurring a bunch of injuries while you’re young will cause you to age worse than players who didn’t miss a lot of developmental time.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
really anything could happen
thames could become an above average defender next year
or he could become manny
but chances are he’ll be slightly worse than this year (in talent, not in performance) because that’s what on average happens to players his age. there are reasons why he could age better or worse than normal, but right now we have no way of telling which ones will be more important so our best guess is just what happens on average to players that age.
Not trying to disagree with you here
just pointing out that simple aging curves generally don’t account for certain aspects of player development.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
From the Eye-Test
I would say he definitely improved as the season went on.
Also, I think that the motivation of having to compete with a ton of other players at the position has, and will continue to, make him work harder at being a better defensive OF.
Can't wait for some October Baseball.
@VagabondBansal
also true
but that is true of every MLB player, and we know that the average MLB player is a worse defender at age 25 than age 24. so to make the conclusion that Thames is likely to get better next year, you’d have to believe that he is more motivated to improve than the typical 24 year old MLB player. i see no reason to believe that.
Stocks moving!
As I count it, four of these guys increased their value this year (Alvarez, Thames, Syndergaard and Hutchison) while two saw it decrease (Wojciechowski & Thon). Jenkins, Sanchez, Sierra & Cardona stayed about even, I would say. A good year for these guys.
I don't think Woj's decreased that much, if at all.
The fact that he only got better as the season progressed is a good sign
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Neither cratered
But both stalled for the year. That’s a step back in prospectdom. I remain optimistic about Woj due to his good finish to the season, and Thon is very young & had health issues.
I would say it is a step back
but only because of how many pitchers leapfrogged him on the list – Hutchinson, Syndergaard, Molina, Nicolina, and even new comers like Norris may be ranked ahead of him next year, even though he really did nothing wrong.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Oct 4, 2011 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think Thon value has decreased. He has solid tools, knows how to get on base and im not even sure if he was supposed to play this season because of the whole blood disorder thing.
He didn’t play enough consistently either as he got benched or pulled from games. Started off well and tailed off.
Wojciechowski was a major disappointment to me. He is a polished arm that was talked about as potential steal of the draft but struggled to miss bats and was very hittable.
March Hulet has said
the Jays tweaked Woj’s delivery mid-season, it didn’t work and he returned to his old delivery towards the end of the season. His worst work was during the new delivery phase.
by TtD on Oct 3, 2011 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Looking at the sidebar on the main page it looks like Marisnick should have been #10, and he had another great season. It’s incredible how quickly the Jays system has become deep with not future AAAA players, but prospects with a ton of talent! Minor league success doesn’t mean Major League success, but AA has definitely put together a farm system to be excited about.
Dakers is trying to cover up (poorly) not having him in the top ten to start with.
The cover-up is always worse than the crime.
Hutchison is apparently one of the guys who's numbers don't match the scouting reports at all
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
does he?
I thought he sits low 90s
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I guess
I’m not exactly sure on why the scouts don’t like him
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
He throws across his body, which is a red flag for scouts
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I think it’s when you sling your body around to throw the ball as opposed to rotating your hips, but I’m not 100% on that.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Its when a RHP puts his striding foot too much toward the 3rd base side of the mound—thus having to twist his torso/arm to deliver a pitch. It puts strain on the arm especially when delivering a pitch to the outside corner.
but scouting reports also tell that hitters see the ball very late against Hutch cause of his movement to third base…
That´s allways an advantage cause balls seems to be faster as they are….
"Touch ´em all, Joe!"
by jaysfanfromeurope on Oct 6, 2011 5:28 AM EDT up reply actions
scouts don't like him?
he’s in Keith Law’s Top 50 based on what scouts have told him.
BA doesn't like him
I don’t think KG likes him either. I know KLaw does, but other than him, I haven’t see a lot of good reports on him
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Prospect site: What do you think of that Hutchinson fellow?
Scout: Who?
Prospect site: Hutchinson.
Scout: Who?
Prospect site: HUTCHINSON!
Scout: Well, he’s not that great. I guess.
Prospect site: Gotcha! Will report that in our next prospect list.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
by Frag on Oct 4, 2011 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
13th in BA FSL rankings
behind AJ Jimenez, who was 10th. That league was pretty stacked though.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
its this year's ranking though
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Nice!
Alex says we will. @gomego11: @Wilnerness590 Think we’ll see Jenkins/McGuire/Hutchinson at somepoint in 2012?
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
He said that in an interview during a game
also, Molina as well.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Oct 3, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm guessing all three + Molina.
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
The new sportsnet theme looks pretty cool
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
very stylish
it looks a lot like sportscentre, but the blue colour scheme really sells it
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Those ribbons either remind me of the "fish" in the leaked Miami Marlins logo or the Buffalo Bills logo
Follow me @BBBMinorLeaguer | 2011 Jays record while in attendance: 12-12 (.500)
by Minor Leaguer on Oct 3, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah.. I don't know what the deal with that is
but other than that, it looks solid
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
damn
it looks way too stylish. It’s going to take a while to adjust from the old crappy graphics to this.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Arent you guys sick of this "branding" talk in sports?
I watch sports as an escape from the business world. They had on some guy from sportsnet on the FAN the other day—I thought I was at a business meeting.
“We are trying to achieve brand recognition. Through our multi-tiered survey’s; we have ascertained that the sports fans in Toronto want stratified media sources”
Gimme a break dude!!!!!!!!!!!! Its soo annoying!
dead
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I though Zed's dead
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
need gamethread
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
nice catch
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
"It's a..... white roof, the same colour as the baseball"
oh my god buck.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Andrus with a single
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
lol kotch
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
My Goodness
Kotchman
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
He is indeed the BABIP wizard
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Colbayashi on the mound
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
DJ increasing pitch count
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
dam
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
You spam more than me..
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
you spam
I comment
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I disagree...you spam comment, better?
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
Nah
My comments are very valuable. Each worth over 9000
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Never.
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
"most important, he got Evan Longoria behind him"
sigh
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
CC's voice is very calming
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
cool
thanks
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Good review on Thames
I’d have to agree with it.
Damn. Now I won't be seeing Syndergaard anymore.
I saw him a few games in Vancouver- he was great!
by Vancouverbluejay on Oct 3, 2011 11:29 PM EDT reply actions

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