The Season That Was: Brett Cecil

by Tom Dakers on Nov 10, 2011 3:43 PM EST in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis

It is pretty hard for me to believe that the Jay pitcher that threw the 3rd most innings, this year, was Brett Cecil. It says a lot about our season.

Brett had a very good 2010, with a team leading 15 wins and a 4.22 ERA in 28 starts.

Things went bad right from the start of spring training. Brett seemed to get overly concerned about his velocity, right at the start of spring. I don't, I think he obsessed about about MPH when he should have been more worried about location.

Our predictions for his 2011 season were all over the place. I was miles off:

30 starts, 4.00 ERA, 14-10, 200 innings and 150 strikeouts

This is what he did:

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2011 - Brett Cecil	4-11	20	20	2	1	0	0	123.2	122	68	65	22	42	87	4.73	1.33

Not good at all. Fangraphs had him at a 0.4 WAR giving him a value of $1.7 million to the Jays. He had an FIP of 5.10 and an xFIP of 4.36. His BABIP was actually better this year, .267 compared to 2010, .293.

Brett's strikeouts per actually went up a little (6.33 from 6.10 in 2010), but his walk rate went up a bit too (3.06 from 2.81).

He gave up more line drives (18.3% from 17.6%). His ground ball rate went down (38.2% from 44.2%). Fly balls were up (43.5% from 38.2%). He gave up a lot more home runs (13.3% HR/FB from 8.7%).

Cecil was great against LHB (.186/.282/.240), but just awful against RHB (.282/.337/.539).

He pitched much better on the road (4-3, 4.04 batters hit .232/.315/.409) than at home (1-7, 5.43, .280/.238/.506). Facing RHB at home must have been a really bad thing.

Brett by month:

April: 1-2, 6.86. Batters hit .304/.376/.519 in 4 starts.

June: 0-1, 8.53. Batters hit .320/.379/.720 in 1 start.

July: 3-1, 2.19. Batters hit .231/.297/.357 in 5 starts.

August: 0-3, 4.81. Batters hit .228/.297/.430 in 6 starts.

September: 0-4, 5.85. Batter hit .288/.352/.550 in 4 starts.

July was pretty good. The rest of the season wasn't.

Cecil's longest win streak was 3 games. His longest losing was 7 games from August 9 to the end of the season.

His best game score was a 84 against the Rangers, July 24, a complete game shut out, 4 hits, 2 walks and 7 strikeouts. His lowest game score was a 29 on April 9 against the Angels. He went 5 innings, allowing 10 hits, 5 earned, 1 walk, 3 k and 1 homer.

It was a bad season for Brett, he's going to have to have a really good spring to keep his place in the rotations. He seemed to be getting the ball up in the strike zone much more than he has in the past.

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People who worry about the bullpen should take a long look at Cecil

If he’s a loser in the rotation battle next spring, he could slide into the pen like Rzep did. I bet Cecil would be a decent reliever with the increased velocity and his good slider.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Nov 10, 2011 4:04 PM EST reply actions

I would be extremely surprised if he didn't end up in the pen.

1) There is a very important need for a LHP in the pen.
2) His splits are terrific.
3) I don’t think he’s good enough to be in the rotation.
4) If he’s marginally good enough to be in the rotation now, he certainly won’t be when the young crop of pitchers are knocking at the door mid-season.

So why not put him in the bullpen right away, let him get used to that role and move on. They did it for Litsch and had less reason to than Cecil, in my opinion.

by REMO on Nov 10, 2011 7:17 PM EST up reply actions

I think the bullpen is probably a good thing for him

I think the extra 1-2 mph boost that relievers usually achieve will help him be more effective.

He may be a starter for 2012 though until one of the Jays prospects pushes him into the pen.

by siggian on Nov 11, 2011 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

MLB.com used to have

Compound splits on their stats page, like vs. RHB in daytime, but it appears they have done away with that. What a shame.

Thought I had seen it all. Then Marco Scutaro stole 2nd base on a walk.
Sure I had seen it all. Then Jose Bautista stole 3rd base during and IBB.
Now I've seen it all. I think.

by coolhead2010 on Nov 10, 2011 4:04 PM EST reply actions

huh?

I can’t see how that stat is useful

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions

well I wouldn't mind seeing a home against RHB split.....

it would be interesting, wouldn’t be something that you could project into the future but would be fun to see.

I blog, therefore I am.

by Tom Dakers on Nov 10, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions

it's on FanGraphs, no?

I’m just saying, I don’t think day/night splits affect much, or is predictive at all

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

i dont know if I believe that. im sure there are some players that can see the ball better in night than day time or vice versa. Or maybe some players just don’t “feel” as good playing in the day than night.

for example: Josh Hamilton really struggles in day time and he said so himself. It wasn’t just this year or last year where you could say its a small sample size issue. Hamilton has a career .731 OPS during day and .968 OPS during night.

Maybe in most cases it doesn’t matter but there are exceptions

by Sniderlover on Nov 10, 2011 6:18 PM EST up reply actions

i suppose

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 6:27 PM EST up reply actions

Velocity

I thought the Jays coaches mentioned velocity as a problem so he paid attention to it. I seem to recall the Jays thought he had lost 1-2 mph of his already moderately slow fastball.

I agree that location was more of his problem last year but having poorer velocity compounded his problem.

by siggian on Nov 10, 2011 4:24 PM EST reply actions

he had 90.1 MPH in 2010 and 88.5 MPH this season.

He always seems to pitch high in the zone but yeah, he was pitching with lower velocity so it was a lot of meatballs he was throwing up there.

by Sniderlover on Nov 10, 2011 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

Great wrap up on his season

If he can’t bounce back to 2010 version of himself, he is going to find himself as a lefty-specialist pretty darn quick in 2012, i bet. There are too many young arms in the system for the Jays to let another pitcher stink it up on the mound a la Jose Reyes. We need constant pressure on the pitchers to perform and if they don’t , we bring up our young guns that are ready and let them do it.

by TrueBlue4Ever! on Nov 10, 2011 4:41 PM EST reply actions

Cecil was the major pitching disappointment for me in 2011.

It got really annoying to hear Pat and Buck keep talking about Brett leaving his pitches up, but the sad part was that they were right.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Nov 10, 2011 4:49 PM EST reply actions

Darn it

I keep forgetting that I want to see Dustin McGowan in the starting rotation in 2012 as well. Really wish we had another impact lefty other than Romero, it would balance our rotation out nicely after we get Darvish

Romero
Darvish
Insert killer lefty here
McGowan
Alvarez

sorry Drabek and Cecil, you guys blew it and you are now stuck in the bullpen. Drabek why is your face going so red? Calm down, Son!

by TrueBlue4Ever! on Nov 10, 2011 4:54 PM EST reply actions

Morrow?

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Nov 10, 2011 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

see that's silly

because Cecil is one season removed from a very solid season as a 24-year-old in the AL East, and Drabek – a very highly touted pitching prospect – had one poor year in the AL East at 23. you honestly expect every single pitcher to dominate the MLB from the get-go?

and we traded Morrow?

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 10, 2011 4:57 PM EST up reply actions

LOL Nope i forgot Morrow.

I don’t know what to tell you guys. We have a lot of good pitchers i guess LOL.

long day at the office. My brain hurts. heading home good day to you all.

by TrueBlue4Ever! on Nov 10, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

I can't imagine that McGowan will be better than Drabek going forward

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

I'm excited about the rotation next year

Not in terms of how good they’ll be but I was looking at fangraphs average fb velocity and if the rotation was:
Romero (92.1)
Morrow (93.8)
Alvarez (93.3)
Drabek (93.4)
McGowan (92.8)
That’s an average average fbv of 93.08 which is always exciting.

by T_Mizz on Nov 13, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

Dose't matter if you throw 92 or 94. When its right down middle and elevated all the time you gonna get smoked.

I found a delivery in my flaw

by syc on Nov 10, 2011 5:07 PM EST reply actions

then why did Cecil give up hits less often than an average pitcher?

he gave up 6% fewer hits on balls in play than CC Sabathia, and no one would claim Cecil is a better pitcher. he also gave up only a few percentage points more HRs on FBs than league average

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 10, 2011 5:13 PM EST up reply actions

I give up......why?

I found a delivery in my flaw

by syc on Nov 10, 2011 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

because there's a lot of luck involved

hitters just aren’t that great at aiming hits, even against elevated slow fastballs

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 10, 2011 5:30 PM EST up reply actions

well

they could aim it over the fence :D

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

how many hit did he get from fastballs down the middle compared to how many outs he made from the same location? That would be the real stat to use, not luck IMO

I found a delivery in my flaw

by syc on Nov 10, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

that would be a great stat to use

unfortunately, it’s not available

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 5:40 PM EST up reply actions

yup, you're right

I don’t know where to get that, though

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 10, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions

there's some at Brooks Baseball

but I have no idea how you would add up the data

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

actually, it is available

but only on a per-game basis, on Brooks Baseball. You could look into it if you want

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
Rookie writer at Baseball Canadiana
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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions

Holy moly

his BABIP was .267?! and a 1.6(!!!) HR/9? Wow.

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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Twitter? I hardly know her!

by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 5:31 PM EST reply actions

homeruns seriously killed him

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

tones of fly balls.

I blog, therefore I am.

by Tom Dakers on Nov 10, 2011 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

A ton?

he had similar FB% to Marcum though

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

that's a ton

especially compared to 2010

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 10, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

I have to think it was because of lower velocity? It seemed easier to square up his pitches. It wasn’t just his fastball either, it was down across the board (except for curveball which somehow saw a jump in his velocity — maybe some sliders). Easier to hit pitches when they’re slower.

I still can’t help but remember the homerun he gave up to Arod where arod yells “you know what” throws his bat away and yet he gets a homerun. Unlucky season for cecil though he was bad as well

by Sniderlover on Nov 10, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions

if you ask me

it seems easier to hit them because guys were getting hits. if those hits were caught I don’t think we’d be having this conversation (though I could be wrong; it’s happened before)

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 10, 2011 6:48 PM EST up reply actions

the chicken or the egg?

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 6:50 PM EST up reply actions

So what differentiates good and bad pitchers?

(serious question…)

by Nadia on Nov 10, 2011 6:59 PM EST up reply actions

strike outs

walks
homeruns

at least in my opinion

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
Rookie writer at Baseball Canadiana
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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 7:03 PM EST up reply actions

groundballs too

basically, look at the all-time best pitchers. virtually all of them have at least two of: very high K rates, very low BB rates, and high GB rates

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 10, 2011 7:07 PM EST up reply actions

Cecil isn't particularly impressive in any of those categories, is he?

The only difference between his 2010 and 2011 season was HR/9 (basically). I think that pretty much lead to his 1/2 run difference in ERA and 1 run difference in FIP, from both seasons.

His FIP was pretty good in 2010, but I still think that fans overrate his 2010 season due to the 15 Wins.

by REMO on Nov 10, 2011 7:28 PM EST up reply actions