FanPost

Predicting the WAR of the 2012 roster

Hi, all. Over at BtB, Sky Kalkman updated her his WAR spreadsheet so that it uses wOBA, and I though this would be a good time to fool around with it. I tried to calculate the total WAR for 2012 Blue Jays. Here's the lineup, PAs, wOBA, BR, and Fld values I used:

 

Hitter   Pos PA wOBA BR Fld WAR
JP Arencibia CA 500 .315 -0.25 -1.00 1.6
Catcher X CA 177 .290 -0.25 -0.25 0.4
Adam Lind 1B 530 .330 -0.25 -0.25 1.0
David Cooper 1B 245 .325 -0.50 -0.50 0.2
Kelly Johnson 2B 615 .340 0.25 0.25 3.9
Yunel Escobar SS 605 .335 0.25 0.75 4.5
Mike McCoy SS 100 .265 0.25 0.25 0.1
Brett Lawrie 3B 625 .345 0.50 0.00 4.3
Eric Thames LF 623 .335 1.00 -1.00 2.4
Colby Rasmus CF 603 .330 0.75 0.25 3.8
Rajai Davis CF 250 .315 1.00 -0.25 1.1
Jose Bautista RF 642 .410 0.50 -0.50 6.6
Edwin Encarnacion DH 545 .335 0.25   1.3
Hitter X   DH 150 .310 0.00   0.0
Total:   DH 6210 .338 0.32 -0.16 31.0

 

With the above numbers, the team wOBA becomes .337. In 2011, the team wOBA was .319, and in 2010, .333.

With the above wOBA, BR, and Fld numbers, the team total offensive WAR is 30.9. In 2011, the team offensive WAR was 21.3, and in 2010, 24.0.

 

Now, for the pitchers:

 

Pitcher   S/R IP ERA LEV WAR
Ricky Romero S 195 3.65 1.0 3.7
Brandon Morrow S 165 4.00 1.0 2.4
Henderson Alvarez S 170 4.00 1.0 2.5
Brett Cecil S 155 4.30 1.0 1.7
Kyle Drabek S 145 4.50 1.0 1.2
Starter X S 110 4.60 1.0 0.8
           
           
           
Casey Janssen R 65 3.35 1.8 1.6
Joel Carreno R 60 3.80 1.3 0.5
Dustin McGowan R 50 3.90 1.0 0.3
Jesse Litsch R 70 3.90 0.9 0.4
Carlos Villanueva R 75 4.20 0.8 0.1
Luis Perez R 65 4.30 0.7 0.0
Danny Farquhar R 60 4.40 0.6 0.0
Chad Beck R 60 4.50 0.5 0.0
    R        
Starters     940 4.12   12.3
Relievers     505 4.04 0.9 2.9
Total     1445 4.10   15.1

 

Using the above the numbers, the team starting ERA was 4.12. In 2011, the team starting ERA was 4.55, and in 2010, 4.30.

The team relief ERA was 4.04. In 2011, the team relief ERA was 3.88, and in 2010, 4.09.

The overall pitching WAR was 15.1. In 2011, it was 12.5, and in 2010, 17.4.

 

 

Total WAR 46.2
Total FA $ $208.5
Win Talent 89.7

 

With my numbers, the overall team WAR was 46.2. In 2011, it was 33.8, and in 2010, 41.4.

A WAR of 46.2 should equate to 89.7 wins. The team record would be something like 90-72.

 

Does this look right? Do you think I was optimistic/pessimistic on some players? Criticism is welcome.

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