Ryan Doumit Fits Toronto Like a Glove
by Marc Hulet on Nov 14, 2011 12:46 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions
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PrintFree agent catcher Ryan Doumit makes a lot of sense for the Toronto Blue Jays. Reportedly, the club attempted to acquire the former Pittsburgh Pirate via the trade route on more than one occasion.
A bit of a poor man's Mike Napoli, Doumit is an offensive-minded catcher whose best position is probably DH but he can also handle first base and the corner outfield. As such, he offers insurance for the inconsistent Adam Lind at first base, the enigmatic Edwin Encarnacion at DH, as well as a pair of sophomore hitters: left-fielder Eric Thames and catcher J.P. Arencibia.
That kind of veteran insurance from one player at multiple positions is hard to find. As a switch-hitter who has value from both sides of the plate he also makes an excellent platoon partner and allows manager John Farrell a lot of flexibility off the bench. The move would also allow the club to let '11 backup catcher Jose Molina walk via free agency and pick up a supplemental first round draft pick. Toronto could let Doumit act as the pure back-up or keep three catchers on the roster and pay rookie Brian Jeroloman the league minimum to play 30-40 games in 2012.
Doumit has already reportedly turned down a one-year offer from the Los Angeles Dodgers at $3 million but he could be a reasonable acquisition at two-years and $8-10 million. He was worth $8 million in value in 2011, according to FanGraphs' WAR rating. Prior to that he was worth a combined $5.4 million in value between 2009-10.
If you're looking for warts on Doumit, glance no further than his defensive skills. He is not a great fielder at any position, but he's competent at each spot. He has also been injury-prone in his career, and has yet to surpass 124 games played in any season; he tallied just 77 games in 2011 thanks to an ankle injury suffered in a home plate collision.
Doumit is not the kind of hitter that you build a team around but he's exactly the kind of player that has value to a team like Toronto, a club that is looking to compete in a tough league with a young, unproven lineup.
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I'm a bit torn on Doumit
I think he’s not a bad guy to have around, but I think they need to be comfortable with him being the backup catcher in order to justify adding him to the team. Either that, or they move one of Lind or EE.
A guy who isn’t a defensive upgrade means he needs to hit, and I don’t see him hitting that much, if any, better than any of the current options, and I don’t think it makes sense to add a guy to be a 3rd catcher and backup 1B/DH when we already have too many guys for that role (Lind, EE, and whomever of Thames/Snider isn’t starting on a given day).
If Lind is traded the situation changes somewhat, as Doumit could then become the primary backup at 2 positions (1B, C), which holds more value.
If the team carries JPA, Doumit and another C (Jeroloman, for example), that seems like a poor use of bench resources to me.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
I don't like having both catchers starting in the same game.
Your idea is better than what the team often did this year though, when they would start Molina at DH. If J.P. got injured early in the game that would screw everything up.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Nov 14, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
I re-read my comment and it was a bit unclear.
To simplify, I don’t think Doumit’s bat is an upgrade on what we can get out of any position other than C (assuming that they correctly platoon Lind/EE, which I am not confident they will do, but whatever. And by platoon, I mean have EE play everyday and Lind only play against RHP).
So if Doumit is exclusively the backup C/1B, so much the better. But I don’t want JPA, Doumit and Jeroloman on the roster at the same time.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
One would think that if AA wanted someone like Mike Napoli he would have kept Mike Napoli.
That being said I wanted the team to keep Napoli so I think I’d approve, especially since he wouldn’t have to share back-up catcher with anyone. I think he’d add a lot of flexibility to the bench both positionally and with the bat (since he can switch hit).
by Parallex on Nov 14, 2011 1:13 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I don't see how he's better than EE
he’s not going to replace Thames or Snider, he doesn’t hit RHP better than Lind, and he isn’t going to be the backup C (since I assume they’ll want a “veteran presence” in that spot). colour me “meh”
No
Doumit as a non-catcher duplicates guys the Jays already have under contract. The Jays already have EE as their backup 1B and have too many LFs as it is (Snider, Thames, and Davis (as backup OF). I don’t think his extra versatility is a bonus in this light.
I’d prefer a backup catcher with a strong defense to serve as a mentor/second coach for JPA.
Doumit's defence
Really, really sucks. He was the absolute worst in the pitch-framing study, which alone makes him below-replacement as a catcher. He also was below average in the pitch-blocking study. If we want Arencibia to improve defensively, if only to boost his trade value, I don’t see how Doumit makes sense; except inasmuch as Doumit would make JPA’s defence look good by comparison? We’d be better off with a good defensive backup who can help JPA with his blocking & framing.
well
he was still better defensively than Arencibia, according to BtB. Not sure about Arencibia’s framing.
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but at least some of JPA's scouting
has said he could potentially be average or even a little above. Doumit’s never done anything in the Majors that isn’t abysmal
Arencibia being last in catcher defense on BtB (rookie season, I know)
makes me really wonder if he could even be average defensively
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He's got a lot of work to do to become average defensively
The funny thing is, if he does manage to do it, by that time D’Arnaud will probably be taking his job.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
which is good
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You Guys Kill Me
Yet again another comment that JPA sucks. He is a rookie that hit 23 HR with 78 rbi’s as a rookie! Do anyone remember when Frank Thomes lead or team with 26 HR’s and 95 RBI’s in 2007??? I know im venting and I know JPA needs work behind the plate, but lets keep him one more year instend of releasing him outright, right now shall we? Maybe he can DH someday? Or maybe even catch?
Ow My Brain
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haha
I knew that was coming, so ok, if D’Arnaud is the next Babe Ruth like absoultly everyone agrees he is, make him a 1st basemen and let him win the job in the spring?
that's not it at all. like, at all
his bat would be maybe decent at first base. he projects as a very good hitter for a catcher and a very good defender at catcher as well. shifting him to first base turns him into a maybe-good hitter for a first baseman and probably a good-very good defender at first base. that’s just a horrible idea
why make d'Arnaud a 1B?
He’s a fantastic defensive catcher by all accounts
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sorry
pissy day
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Hey, guy
No one said JPA sucks and no one said we ought to release him; he has some definite strengths, and I, for one, think he can get at least close to average with the glove.
somewhat OT, but anyway
the Bill James projection has JPA at .317 wOBA, just a little under league average. call me a homer (“you’re a homer!”) but I can’t see him improving by fewer than 10 points of wOBA.
apparently league average wOBA is higher next year
no idea why
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no, just that he'd be more than a little under league average
just nitpicking, as usual
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I don’t think evaluating players relative to the league average is altogether helpful. If Arencibia has a .317 wOBA next year, I’ll regard it as a definite step forward, and I think he has the ability to really surprise us.
that's not much better
that’s, like, a .295 OBA. maybe I’m just expecting bigger things than everyone else, but if he only improves by 9 points of wOBA in a year with high offense, I’ll be disappointed
I, for one
welcome our new d’Arnaud overlords
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by Pikachu on Nov 14, 2011 8:58 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I never said JPA sucks
I have said that he is one of the worst catchers defensively by every defensive metric. Just because I would like it to be otherwise doesn’t make it so. If you’re the worst by every defensive metric, you have a lot of work to do to improve to league average. However, JPA doesn’t have a lot of time to do that because D’Arnaud is not far away.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I think it is a great idea on like 1 yr/$5mil + yr club option
It sets up pretty nice platoons for 1st base and left field.
Davis (LF) and Doumit (1st) versus lefties + Doumit gets 20 games as cather to spell JPA.
Thames/Snider (LF) and Lind (1st) versus righties.
EE playing DH everyday with a few random days in the field.
Makes for a pretty flexible roster. Just got to release Teehan because he is superfluous.
by Matthew Mueller on Nov 14, 2011 3:59 PM EST reply actions
If the glove dont fit...
Ryan doumit is an interestimg player but I would suggest a few things before making him the “ideal” pick up
1. You almost have to carry 3 catchers because any time Doumit plays 1st, DH or OF JP will have to catch leaving them both in the line up
2. My opinion has always been you want a good defensive back up catcher, because they arent on the team for their bat, Doumit is certainly not that.
3.Saying he in compotent in the corner outfield is optimistic
4. With Edwin trying LF and Mark Teahan most likely a part of the roster there is really no room. Yes Teahan was atrocious last year but we are paying him the 5 mil, for the amount of at bats he or Doumit would get Id rather see if Teahan can capture a little of the magic. With Teahan and Davis plus a middle infielder there is really no room for Doumit plus another catcher which I think you would need.
Interesting player but in reality not a good fit for the blue jays
Id also still like to have a vet to help JP, even Pudge? Helping JP and Darnaud in ST
1. Don’t DH him. Give EE an every day DH job. He won’t have to worry about playing in the field (or at least rarely). If EE needs a rest, Lind plays DH. When he plays 1B, you can do a double switch in the event of an emergency.
2. Why? If you’re giving someone 200 AB’s as a backup Catcher, why does he have to suck. Is defense more important than offense? If so, why worry about getting a good offensive #1 Catcher in the 1st place.
3. Maybe so, but does he really have to play outfield much? Davis is a fine 4th OF. Doumit might get 15 games out there, if that?
4. Teahan is indeed a problem. If the Jays want to optimize their lineup, he needs to be released. I do agree with you that it doesn’t make much sense to have both on the roster.
I think he is a pretty good fit. I’d rather Lind not face LHP anymore, so we need another guy that can hit LHP, in my opinion.
I wouldn't worry about Teahen
I think the Jays meant to eat his salary all along just to get the Rasmus deal done.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Best case scenario
Jays sign someone who’s better than Lind and EE, and one or both go the bench.
how about we find some pitchers
we dont need hitters we need someone to put zeros up like romero and morrow
our hitting is still far behind the yankees/red sox
so yes, we do need hitters
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yes, but that's beauty
Doumit improves the team, but won’t cost that much. It leaves room to acquire better pitchers as well. Either way, they have at least 3 bench spots to fill..
I honestly don't see how he improves us that much
he can’t really defend; I’d rather just give Cooper the (basically free) plate appearances instead
Sign him and make him the full time catcher
So we can trade JP in the winter meetings, when his stock is so elevated. Chances are one of the high ceiling catchers in the system will come up and be better.
I don't think Arencibia's stock is all that high right now
I think the Jays should hold on until mid-season or next offseason
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yeah
low AVG, poor defense (I’m sure everyone knows that)… assuming he develops like we (and others) expect, he should be very valuable next summer. he’ll be a not-old, cost-controlled league average catcher with upside
shame on you
you just used AVG to make an argument about a hitter’s value
by Matthew Mueller on Nov 14, 2011 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
shame on you
you completely missed my point. his trade value right now might (depending on how smart you think front offices are) be low precisely because he has a low AVG, despite the fact that he’s not a poor hitter
Someone should make a note somewhere in the JPA discussion that...
Rookie catchers normally tend to “suck” compared to their career numbers because they have a tougher learning curve than all the other position players. He will be fine. Gotta wait atleast a year if not two to see how good he is gonna be. Trade him in summer/winter 2013. he should have tons of value by then.
by Matthew Mueller on Nov 14, 2011 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
I have a feeling
That if there are no blocks, D’Arnaud could debut next year if he hits the DL.
Then again it all depends on how he takes to AAA.
by Mike Andrew on Nov 14, 2011 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
yes
We hate Arencibia. Don’t really have a reason for it, we just don’t like him. It’s not like he sucks either, we just don’t like him as a ballplayer. As soon as d’Arnaud makes it up to the majors, I say the Jays trade Arencibia for a bag of balls.
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He's trying to steal our girlfriends!
Unwittingly perhaps, but all the same.
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
Tell me this
Take the name away, Hey AA what would you say to 23 Hr’s and 80 RBI’s out of your catcher in the 9 hole in 2012? Name another team that can match that?
Arencibia's wOBA was 19th in MLB, out of 24 Cs with +400 PA
that’s kind of bad
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No Doubt
He needs work, and i know this will be unpopular but he is a young, exciting power hitter that is the first guy out of the dugout for a big homerun, and the first one to give a high five to a great pitch inning. He loves being a Blue Jay!. From what I can see he is well liked, he complements guys like KJ, Lawrie, Rasmus etc. and looks like he is durable. We are demanding to resign KJ and EE this guy is at the same level at the plate as those guys. He may not be the catcher of the future but not because he didn’t preform but because he got beat out by a possible better player. I think he is getting a bad rap because there is such a amazing prospect coming up behind him. If we had a amazing 3rd base prospect in AAA would we be saying trade Lawrie while his stock is high? (HELL NO). We can list wOBA and WAR stats etc etc. His attitude is one i like, and his stats don’t count him out. KEEP HIM, let him pinch hit, let him be the backup catcher, because he will do it while being a team player. This is why the Yankees fail the don’t care. Lawrie cares, Romero cares, Thames cares and yes JPA cares. He wants to win and he wants to win for the Blue Jays
Let's see
We are demanding to resign KJ and EE this guy is at the same level at the plate as those guys
Like we’ve said already, we don’t think Arencibia is a bad player. He’s good, but d’Arnaud is almost certainly better, which makes Arencibia redundant.
If we had a amazing 3rd base prospect in AAA would we be saying trade Lawrie while his stock is high? (HELL NO)Why wouldn’t you?
KEEP HIM, let him pinch hit, let him be the backup catcher, because he will do it while being a team playerBut that’s a waste, you’re not using your resources efficiently. Arencibia’s value comes from him being an above average bat for the position and his youth/affordability.
This is why the Yankees fail the[y] don’t care. Lawrie cares, Romero cares, Thames cares and yes JPA cares. He wants to win and he wants to win for the Blue JaysI don’t think caring wins you baseball games.
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Yankees
So if payroll and stats are the only thing you need to win why don’t the Yankees win the WS every single year?? Yes I do think Heart plays into winning baseball games. BTW I totally see your points, but you need guys to get along and be a group. Point being I don’t think his numbers are that bad for a rookie. I’m actually surprised that he didn’t get even one 5th place vote for ROY?
Not trying to be a bleeding heart but Pat Borders wOBA in 1992 was .302 and his FLD was -6.0 was he a big piece in winning the WS? I think yes.
well
they make the playoffs almost every year. And once you make it to the playoffs, it’s mostly a crap-shoot.
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I mean, really
the Cardinals were probably the second worst team to make it to the playoffs (the DBacks were worse, in my opinion), and they ended up winning the WS. A lot of it is luck.
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people always say the teams with the most heart win
but I’d say the causation is the contrary. teams that win a lot are said to have a lot of heart
either way
it’s a bunch of crap
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I agree it's unquantifiable
but if I had to choose between “it makes a difference” and “it doesn’t make a difference”, I’ll go with the latter
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In this argument we are saying that some teams that win a lot (read: the Yankees and Red Sox) don’t have a lot of heart, as proven by their inability of late to win when it matters
they win a ton of games that obviously do matter
they’re critical in allowing them to make the playoffs. the Yankees won like 95 games that mattered this year
apparently
neither do the Rangers, the Brewers, the DBacks, the Tigers, the Rays, and any team that didn’t win the WS
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Although at the same time, I do sorta agree with the argument that the Yanks and Red Sox have no heart, because we all know that the Yankees and Red Sox are soul-sucking zombies. So from that perspective, I agree with the argument that they have no heart.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
meh
the Rays made the playoffs several times and haven’t won the WS, they must have no heart either
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But they should have plenty of soul
on account of their soul sucking ways.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
um, no, not really
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Explain why the “best” teams haven’t been winning in the playoffs then. You say it’s luck? But you haven’t backed it up with anything and I think the Cardinals and Giants would beg to differ.
Take any 7 game sample from the 162 game schedule
I bet I could find several cases of the “worse” teams winning 4 games
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now
is that because the “worse” teams had more “heart”?
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surprise, surprise – it’s a tagteam effort ;) – even the “worst” teams won 4 games in a row during the regular season. The stats usually show that it was because for those 4 games they played better than their opponent. What was your point? The question is: why have the teams with the best records in the regular season been choking in the playoffs the last few years? Why are they losing the 4 most crucial games of the season?
because any team could become the best team in the world for 4 straight games
it happens a lot in the regular season, why can’t it happen in the WS?
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During the regular season it often happens because the higher-ranked team decides to take a vacation – disrespect for their opponent. During the play-offs, I can’t see that being the case, but I certainly can see a team picking up its game when it matters. LaRussa was at his best down the stretch and (with the exception of 1 phone call) in the play-offs, and Freese was a monster when he needed to be. I suppose you could call it luck, but you could also call it desire or heart or will or something along those lines
If Freese could do what he did in the playoffs all year long consistently, he’s the biggest slacker/bum in the world for not doing that all season long.
If Aaron Boone could hit a HR like that on command in a pressure spot, why didn’t he do that more often and be the greatest player in history?
Heck, Joe Carter was involved in a few big plays. Why isn’t he in the Hall of Fame?
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Heck, Joe Carter was involved in a few big plays. Why isn’t he in the Hall of Fame?
he is :P
probably shouldn’t be though
lol
you almost had me raging
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you would both reply to different one
here i was going to delete one of the dupes and now
NOW ITS ALL RUINED
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Nov 15, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Joe Carter will always have a very special place in my heart...
…but never should be considered for the HOF.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
he is?!
wow. That is dumb.
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no he's not
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He probably does have some of his baseball equipment in the HOF though.
That is probably well deserved.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Wait wait,
So heart has a tangible, significant impact on teams’ records because…you’ve stated, without qualification or inside knowledge or proof, that heart exists?
If you’re demanding us to provide proof that luck exists, certainly you wouldn’t make such a circular argument as “heart exists because it exists.”
Is it only good teams that show a lack of heart? Do heart and scrappyness only exist in bad players? Do bad teams never take mental holidays?
I hereby relinquish my position of Vice-President of the Tautology Club.
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
Why are they losing the 4 most crucial games of the season?
Small sample size.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Sure. But if it was more than small sample size they wouldn’t have gotten themselves down to their last strike 2 times in one game.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
This is some twisted logic (and the Freese/Boone argument above is along the same line). They won the game because when they were down to 2 strikes (twice!) they refused to quit, got the hit, and scored the runs. That doesn’t happen twice in 1 game because they were lucky- that happens because they wanted it to happen and they had some say in the matter. It may prove that the other team was the “better” team to have them down to their last strike twice, but it certainly doesn’t prove that they were lucky
Players make their own luck =)
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Nov 15, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
What?
A 1 pitch sample is as luck-impacted a situation as can possibly exist.
Had the Brewers been in that situation, would they have just gone “nah, f*** it, let’s just go home. I don’t want to win the World flipping Series anyway?”
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
Apparently, in this world, that is basically what 29 other teams did this year.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Funny how they all celebrate so hard for winning the World Series, when only one team is actually trying any given year.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
It’s a pity JPA and the rest of the Jays didn’t show even more heart that they apparently already did!
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
lets not get nasty
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Nov 15, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
1) that wasn't nasty at all
2) I was replying to Jevant, not spud
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
Looked like uncessary mocking to me
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Nov 15, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
there's another n in there
got lost due to packet loss! >_>
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Nov 15, 2011 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
and i mean in general
seems like the discussion is moving from actual points to just mocking words
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Nov 15, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
Wasn't the intent at all.
Both things are simply direct logical extensions of claims that have been made. That they seem mocking simply illustrates how flawed the logic behind the initial idea is (the heart thing, I mean, not what you’re saying).
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
what was its intent then
the exclamation point at the end too?
looks an awful lot like mocking
Just want to know what it was you were trying to say, so i can see it differently
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Nov 15, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
As I said
The point was to take the claims to their logical conclusion to point out the flaws therein.
Claim: That doesn’t happen twice in 1 game because they were lucky- that happens because they wanted it to happen and they had some say in the matter.
Conclusion: Had the Brewers been in that situation, would they have just gone "nah, f*** it, let’s just go home. I don’t want to win the World flipping Series anyway?"
Claim: This is why the Yankees fail the don’t care. Lawrie cares, Romero cares, Thames cares and yes JPA cares. He wants to win and he wants to win for the Blue Jays
Conclusion: It’s a pity JPA and the rest of the Jays didn’t show even more heart that they apparently already did! [since then they would have won the WS…and had a better record than the not-caring Yankees for that matter]
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
And then, like I said
the fact that it seems like those are mocking only serves to prove the silliness behind the initial claims.
Also, at no point in the discussion have I directed any comments at a user’s existence as a person, only at the ideas that have been put forth, so I think you’re entirely off-base here.
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
It’s not twisted at all. You are arguing that “heart” exists, and it causes players to raise their skill set and abilities at particular times. I have said that if that is true, why don’t they do it all the time?
It may prove that the other team was the "better" team to have them down to their last strike twice, but it certainly doesn’t prove that they were lucky
You seem to think this proves that they have “heart”. I don’t think it proves anything other than that Freese managed to get his bat on a ball a particular way at a given time, and fortunately for him, it missed a glove.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
“I don’t think it proves anything other than that Freese managed to get his bat on a ball a particular way at a given time, and fortunately for him, it missed a glove”
I’m not.
What a lazy player David Freese is
if he could hit .397/.465/.794 in the post-season, why didn’t he do that in the regular season? I mean, as long as he puts his heart into it, he can hit like that whenever he wants to, right? What a head-case.
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they don't win the WS because playoffs are very close to luck
the “better team” (ie, the one with the better regular season winning percentage) only wins playoff series very slightly more than 50% of the time. they do, however, make the playoffs an obscenely high percentage of the time, since they’re a really really good team.
and yes, any player in a very small sample (like a World Series) can string together a bunch of hits. I just don’t think, should d’Arnaud develop as I and others expect, that JPA on the Jays is likely to the be the best option for getting to the WS. and Arencibia is way better than Borders
Because the playoffs are a crapshoot
Money buys regular season wins. Wins get you into the playoffs, where you have a close-to-12.5% chance of winning the World Series.
Lo, the Yankees frequently make the playoffs.
—-
if…stats are the only thing you need to win
Statistics are a quantification of the production provided by the team’s players, so yes, teams that perform better tend to win more games.
/Tautology Club Vice-President
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
I'm the president, right?
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
Rookie writer at Baseball Canadiana
Twitter? I hardly know her!
... but not necessarily when it counts
so you can say the playoffs are a crapshoot, or it’s all luck, or you could possibly say there is some other factor at play here. Perhaps it is “heart”, as Kelly suggests. Perhaps not, but the comments so far have done nothing to prove that it isn’t.
you can't prove a negative
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
Rookie writer at Baseball Canadiana
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Prove the positive then… Prove that the “best” teams are losing because they have been more “unlucky” than the winning teams. And quantify “lucky” and unlucky". Because otherwise, the argument is that teams win when they have to because they want to. Will is hard to prove… but it’s no less likely than this abstract “luck” factor you’re throwing out
Ok, replace "luck" with "random variance"
It’s not some ethereal cop-out, it’s a legitimate statistical concept that exists in all sports. Happy now?
The reason that money buys you regular season wins, but not playoff wins, is that it takes approximately 150 games for MLB records to stabilize and reflect true talent more than they reflect luck.
In the NFL it takes 29 games, which is why you see so much year-to-year variance. The NBA takes about 35 games, and the NHL takes around 75.
I’ll find the link for you later if I have time (otherwise, I’m reasonably confident that if Jono411 reads through here, he’ll be able to find it for you).
For a proof less rigorous than the link I’m currently unable to find, do as Pikachu suggests above: Go look at 200 arbitrary sets of 7 consecutive games in the regular season, and tell us how often the worse team (by final regular season record) won 4+ out of 7. Is it some non-zero number? Yes. If they were winning because of heart all the time, then that team would have had a better regular season record, but they didn’t. If you somehow claim with a straight face that random variance doesn’t exist, then you’ve assigned 50-odd Yankees losses to a lack of heart, and most of Houston’s wins to the same.
Which is more likely: That the worse team sometimes wins because the spread of talent in the MLB is relatively small (effectively from .400 to .600) and 9 innings isn’t a long enough period for results to stabilize to actual talent levels, or that there exists such a massive discrepancy in the amount that professional baseball players’ “will to win” that it can account for all results not expected from a team?
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
Addendum
If the playoffs are “heart,” why don’t players just stop dicking around in the regular season and just care more?
It’s the same as clutch – If a player was consistently better in situations where he could drive in an important run, wouldn’t his teammates tell him to stop being lazy when he comes up with no one on base?
No one denies either phenomenon exists, the claim is just that the spread in “heart” or “clutchness” when you’re looking only at the top 1/10,000,000% of players in the world is so small that it’s negligible.
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
by Gerse on Nov 15, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Random variance exists
as does talent, as does “heart”. In the play-offs, any coach or team that doesn’t find a way to overcome random variance and play their best baseball doesn’t deserve to win. Only the top 8 teams make it, so even the worst team of the lot was (albeit arguably) #8 over-all during the regular season, which is pretty good. Given the playoff system mlb currently has, the goal in the regular season, like it or not, is not to win more games than anyone else, it is to get yourself into the post-season with as much chance to win your match-ups as possible. Once you’re in the play-offs, it is your job to not only do your best, but to outscore the other team even if they have more talent than you. If you do that, you are better than them, period. Random variance is a much better way of explaining it than luck, thank you for the clarification, but I don’t think it accounts for much when the title is on the line.
by khaleeji on Nov 15, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Its harder to identify in baseball
because its more linear then other sports, there are no smaller battles like blocking more shots, risking your body more, etc etc.
Sure on some plays, like diving into the stands and what not, some players will do in playoffs and not in the regular season because they want it more ( a la granderson catch).
But when it comes down to one pitch, its just that, the pitcher hand get a little more sweaty making the ball slip miss his spot, or he hits his spot but the batter guessed right and got the needed hit.
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Nov 15, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
i realise i contradicted myself, "risking body"
but you get my point
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Nov 15, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
"Once you’re in the play-offs, it is your job to not only do your best, but to outscore the other team even if they have more talent than you."
If you can’t overcome random variance during the regular season, how come it’s possible in the post-season?
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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Which overcomer is the best overcomer?
If you’ve made it to the post-season then you have indeed overcome random variance, ie you have performed very well, better than 3/4 of the league. The post-season is then about the best of the best: in that setting can you combine talent, performance and will to beat the other team. Random variance is no longer the major factor. Luck certainly isn’t. 4-7 games is a small sample size in the regular season, but it is huge in the post-season (and in the final week of the regular season when a win will get you into the play-offs and a loss will leave you out). In these circumstances, your opponent is not too far from having your talent level (one way or the other) and then it’s a matter of whether you play to your abilities, under your abilities, or above your abilities and whether your opponent does or not. The whole “luck” argument disrespects teams like the Cardinals who won despite having less skill/success during the regular season. The Cardinals won because they won. They deserved it. I call that “heart”; call it what you want, but don’t call it “luck”, that’s not fair.
"If you’ve made it to the post-season then you have indeed overcome random variance"
no, that would mean you were the most talented team in your division.
“The Cardinals won because they won. They deserved it.”
no… they really didn’t. I get that they won, but they weren’t the best team. Winning 4 games in a 7 game series does not make you deserving of a WS, it just means you won. There’s a difference.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
Rookie writer at Baseball Canadiana
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Call it "luck"
Call it “random variance”
Call it whatever you want, just as long as you don’t give credit to the individual teams. Winning the WS doesn’t make the Cardinals a better team than the Yankees, Phillies, Rangers, etc. Play the playoffs out a million times, and I guarantee you that the Cards won’t be the team winning more than 1/8 of the time.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
Rookie writer at Baseball Canadiana
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But that’s the whole point: the World Series only happens once a year. Can you win when the opportunity presents itself? If not, you don’t deserve it. Go home. Try again next year.
"Can you win when the opportunity presents itself"
and you’re assuming teams have control over that, while I’m saying it’s luck
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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It's the same thing as clutch hitting, really
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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here, answer me this
do certain hit hit better in the clutch than others?
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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blah
you get what I mean
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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yes, I get you
but it really is an impasse and I’m happy to leave it at that. It’s bedtime where I’m from
aight
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
Rookie writer at Baseball Canadiana
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That doesn't...I don't even...
Everything you have said about the concept of random variance in this comment is the exact opposite of what is true.
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
That doesn't make sense
The playoffs are far less a representation of ability than the regular season is. The purpose of the regular season is to strip out as much of the effect of random variance as is possible given the time constraints, by playing as many games as they can.
Once you’re in the playoffs, the talent spread is far smaller (as you say yourself with the top 8 teams thing) and the sample size is far smaller. Both of these things lead to it being faaaar more luck based than the regular season is.
Random variance isn’t something that can be overcome through effort, it can only be reduced by increasing the sample size (since we can’t change the talent distribution).
Also, when isn’t a team’s job “to do [their] best [and] outscore the other team” (aside from games 160-162 of the season if they have nothing to play for)?
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
Final reply spam
If small samples and random variance don’t play a major role in sports, then you should just order each team from best to worst, and any time two teams play each other, the higher ranked one should always win.
What happens when the Yankees play the Sox? 1) They’re apparently the two least heart-ful teams, 2) Neither team is taking a “mental vacation” as you claim above, and 3) both teams are reasonably equally talented. Why doesn’t the better team win every single time?
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
Who says the Jays even dump JPA if D'Arnaud comes in?
You need two catchers and D’Arnaud has a history of back problems. Plus, D’Arnaud is at least a year away so JPA isn’t going anywhere next year.
Also, you can’t really compare Lawrie and JPA. From what we saw of Lawrie last season, there were no holes in his game while JPA showed poor defence and contact skills.
Finally, how can you tell who cares or not? Wells always looked like he didn’t care but that was because he kept in on the inside. Just because the current Jays do a dance after every home run, it doesn’t mean they cared more than previous teams. I also wasn’t aware that the Yankees don’t care or that they failed so much. I guess winning the division almost every year shows you don’t care. For the record, guys like Jeter and A-Rod care (in the case of A-Rod, he probably cares too much because he always worries about his image).
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I wouldn’t mind JPA as a backup catcher to D’Arnaud, but if we could get something better than him, that’s probably the right approach.
I do see value in having a bench bat in your backup catcher that has good pop though. There’s pinch hitting value there as well.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
IMO (and I know others have expressed this opinion as well)
the marginal value from a good backup catcher to a decent one isn’t huge, so the best way to get value from JPA, assuming he and d’Arnaud both develop as expected, would be to trade him. of course, we need to wait and see, but leaving him as a backup C/pinch hitter doesn’t make a tonne of sense to me when young, league average, cost-controlled catchers with upside are pretty damn valuable
I agree
Although if opposing GMs have the same opinion about JPA as some Jay fans do, one could wonder what value that actually will be.
I guess I’m just hesitant to cut bait on JPA until we know for certain what D’Arnaud is. For all that has been written about D’Arnaud, he doesn’t have an at bat above AA.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
well that's why we're not trading him yet
also because d’Arnaud isn’t ready. it’s not something we really have to worry about just yet
Doumit
I think he’s a solid bench player to have on any team. However, right now we have mediocrity at some positions that he fills in and he just adds more of that. Honestly he’s a great fit for most teams but NOT at catcher.
I think his value is in his bat and that he can fill in sometimes in other spots. The reason why he has potential is that we can probably get more games out of him if he doesn’t stick at catcher which has a high injury toll on a lot of players.
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Important Utility Player
I’d love if the Jays were able to land someone like Doumit; it would provide tremendous flexibility for Farrell to fiddle around with in-game. If Mark Ellis gets 2 years, 9 million from the Dodgers you’re looking at something in the 2 year, 10-12 million range for Doumit, which is entirely reasonable.
Twitterin @NorthYorkJays
my problem with him is
he’s a “utility player” in the same mold as EE. he’s only a utility player because his defense isn’t good enough at any one position to play there full-time. he’s not like a pre-Toronto Marco Scutaro who can play a few positions quite well but is good to have as an injury replacement/spot starter
I prefer this version of a utility player to the version of JMac – the guy who can’t hit well enough to be a starter but has the glove. If there was a perfect blend of the 2 he’d be a starter, so you have to compromise somewhere. If you carry a backup catcher and Doumit then you aren’t relying on Doumit to be the first backup to any position, so his defense isn’t as important.
Twitterin @NorthYorkJays
by NorthYorkJays on Nov 15, 2011 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
but if you carry a backup catcher and Doumit
then you have your 9 starters, backup C, Doumit, Rajai Davis and probably Mike McCoy. I’d be really surprised if the Jays are willing to carry Doumit as a 400 PA/season tops guy. seems superfluous to me
backup C / doumit / davis / utility infielder
and the problem with this bench is what exactly?
Twitterin @NorthYorkJays
by NorthYorkJays on Nov 15, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
Release Teahen?
I don’t really have a problem with it. Cooper?
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
Rookie writer at Baseball Canadiana
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teahen
doesnt factor into offseason plans at all. he’ll get released the minute it makes sense for the jays to do so. cooper and the loser of the snider/thames battle in spring start the year in AAA and wait for their chance.
Twitterin @NorthYorkJays
by NorthYorkJays on Nov 15, 2011 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see why we need a backup catcher and Doumit
JPA is gonna catch 135-140 games. Why can’t Doumit catch 20-25 games and platoon against lefties?
by Matthew Mueller on Nov 15, 2011 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
indeed
i agree with you, matthew. i was responding to the idea that carrying doumit not as the backup C would be a problem. personally an arencibia/doumit pairing is more than enough for me, especially with the knowledge that we have perhaps the most mlb ready C prospect in the minors (either that or he’s just behind mesoraco).
Twitterin @NorthYorkJays
by NorthYorkJays on Nov 15, 2011 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
Molina's a better option
I’d prefer someone who can call a good game as the back-up. Both Gaston and Farrell frequently had the back-up catcher start when the pitcher needed a bit of help to harness his stuff or “maximise his potential” (Morrow in particular, sometimes the rookies as well). Doumit doesn’t help here. If we want the draft pick for Molina, then we’ll want a veteran game-caller in his place until JP (or d’Arnaud) can become that game-caller themselves
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