2011 Blue Jays, Against The Odds

by Xeifrank on Nov 15, 2011 10:05 PM EST

Here is a look at how the Blue Jays 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Blue Jays games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4818 which translates to an expected win total of 78.06 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Blue Jays game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4653 or 75.39 wins. The simulator moreso than Vegas undersold the Blue Jays a little bit. The Blue Jays actually went 81-81 on the season. Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Blue Jays were the largest favorite to win.

Rank	Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	TOR Win Perc	Sim TOR Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
1	08-23-2011	Bruce Chen	Brandon Morrow	KC	TOR	TOR	65.157	65.157	68.46	KC	6	4	10
2	05-21-2011	Brett Myers	Brandon Morrow	HOU	TOR	TOR	65.096	65.096	63.105	TOR	5	7	12
3	08-24-2011	Luke Hochevar	Ricky Romero	KC	TOR	TOR	65.096	65.096	63.41	TOR	3	4	7
4	07-21-2011	Doug Fister	Ricky Romero	SEA	TOR	TOR	63.303	63.303	51.88	TOR	5	7	12
5	07-26-2011	Jake Arrieta	Brandon Morrow	BAL	TOR	TOR	63.303	63.303	60.779	BAL	12	4	16
6	09-10-11	Rick VandenHurk	Henderson Alvarez	BAL	TOR	TOR	62.894	62.894	52.992	TOR	4	5	9
7	06-29-2011	Paul Maholm	Brandon Morrow	PIT	TOR	TOR	62.894	62.894	65.029	TOR	1	2	3
8	08-25-2011	Jeff Francis	Brett Cecil	KC	TOR	TOR	62.335	62.335	57.111	KC	9	6	15
9	05-31-2011	Mitch Talbot	Brandon Morrow	CLE	TOR	TOR	62.049	62.049	62.293	CLE	6	3	9
10	07-27-2011	Alfredo Simon	Ricky Romero	BAL	TOR	TOR	61.39	61.39	53.296	TOR	0	3	3
11	09-11-11	Tommy Hunter	Dustin McGowan	BAL	TOR	TOR	60.552	60.552	52.461	TOR	5	6	11
12	07-20-2011	Jason Vargas	Brandon Morrow	SEA	TOR	TOR	60.396	60.396	60.84	TOR	6	11	17
13	06-15-2011	Jake Arrieta	Ricky Romero	BAL	TOR	TOR	60.239	60.239	52.917	TOR	1	4	5
14	05-29-2011	John Danks	Ricky Romero	CHA	TOR	TOR	59.759	59.759	55.357	TOR	4	13	17
15	07-28-2011	Brad Bergesen	Carlos Villanueva	BAL	TOR	TOR	59.759	59.759	54.84	TOR	5	8	13
16	08-29-2011	Wade Davis	Ricky Romero	TB	TOR	TOR	59.267	59.267	57.772	TOR	3	7	10
17	07-01-11	Kyle Kendrick	Ricky Romero	PHI	TOR	TOR	59.1	59.1	55.958	PHI	7	6	13
18	05-20-2011	Wandy Rodriguez	Jo-Jo Reyes	HOU	TOR	TOR	59.1	59.1	53.444	HOU	5	2	7
19	06-14-2011	Chris Jakubauskas	Carlos Villanueva	BAL	TOR	TOR	58.932	58.932	49.69	TOR	5	6	11
20	09-09-11	Jeremy Guthrie	Brett Cecil	BAL	TOR	TOR	58.592	58.592	52.586	BAL	2	0	2
21	08-09-11	Rich Harden	Brett Cecil	OAK	TOR	TOR	57.537	57.537	57.668	OAK	4	1	5
22	06-30-2011	Jeff Karstens	Brett Cecil	PIT	TOR	TOR	57.537	57.537	62.659	PIT	6	2	8
23	08-07-11	Ricky Romero	Alfredo Simon	TOR	BAL	TOR	57.447	57.447	48.954	TOR	7	2	9
24	09-19-2011	Jerome Williams	Ricky Romero	LAA	TOR	TOR	56.897	56.897	59.48	TOR	2	3	5
25	08-06-11	Brandon Morrow	Chris Tillman	TOR	BAL	TOR	56.803	56.803	50.809	BAL	2	6	8
26	08-11-11	Guillermo Moscoso	Brad Mills	OAK	TOR	TOR	56.616	56.616	55.928	OAK	10	3	13
27	05-19-2011	Wade Davis	Ricky Romero	TB	TOR	TOR	56.427	56.427	53.228	TOR	2	3	5
28	05-26-2011	Phil Humber	Brandon Morrow	CHA	TOR	TOR	56.427	56.427	56.773	CHA	3	1	4
29	06-09-11	Ricky Romero	Luke Hochevar	TOR	KC	TOR	56.236	56.236	55.147	KC	2	3	5
30	05-27-2011	Mark Buehrle	Kyle Drabek	CHA	TOR	TOR	56.236	56.236	46.689	TOR	2	4	6
31	05-15-2011	Brandon Morrow	Brian Duensing	TOR	MIN	TOR	56.14	56.14	46.772	TOR	11	3	14
32	04-24-2011	James Shields	Ricky Romero	TB	TOR	TOR	56.044	56.044	58.485	TB	2	0	2
33	05-22-2011	Wandy Rodriguez	Kyle Drabek	HOU	TOR	TOR	55.85	55.85	51.099	HOU	3	2	5
34	08-17-2011	Brandon Morrow	Blake Beavan	TOR	SEA	TOR	55.85	55.85	57.995	TOR	5	1	6
35	09-08-11	Andrew Miller	Ricky Romero	BOS	TOR	TOR	55.556	55.556	49.906	TOR	4	7	11
36	06-28-2011	Kevin Correia	Jo-Jo Reyes	PIT	TOR	TOR	55.257	55.257	59.484	PIT	7	6	13
37	08-12-11	Ervin Santana	Brandon Morrow	LAA	TOR	TOR	55.056	55.056	59.122	LAA	5	1	6
38	04-01-11	Carl Pavano	Ricky Romero	MIN	TOR	TOR	54.751	54.751	54.227	TOR	3	13	16
39	04-03-11	Nick Blackburn	Brett Cecil	MIN	TOR	TOR	54.751	54.751	51.739	MIN	4	3	7
40	06-06-11	Brandon Morrow	Felipe Paulino	TOR	KC	TOR	54.649	54.649	57.509	KC	2	3	5
41	04-05-11	Dallas Braden	Jo-Jo Reyes	OAK	TOR	TOR	53.488	53.488	48.186	TOR	6	7	13
42	04-07-11	Trevor Cahill	Ricky Romero	OAK	TOR	TOR	53.488	53.488	49.832	OAK	2	1	3
43	06-04-11	Ricky Romero	Jake Arrieta	TOR	BAL	TOR	53.38	53.38	45.844	BAL	3	5	8
44	08-31-2011	Henderson Alvarez	Jo-Jo Reyes	TOR	BAL	TOR	53.38	53.38	41.005	TOR	13	0	13
45	06-01-11	Josh Tomlin	Kyle Drabek	CLE	TOR	TOR	53.162	53.162	51.368	CLE	13	9	22
46	06-07-11	Kyle Drabek	Vin Mazarro	TOR	KC	TOR	53.162	53.162	49.483	TOR	8	5	13
47	06-16-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	Zach Stewart	BAL	TOR	TOR	52.941	52.941	47.354	BAL	4	3	7
48	06-26-2011	Ricky Romero	Kyle McClellan	TOR	STL	TOR	52.941	52.941	49.334	TOR	5	0	5
49	09-20-2011	Joel Pineiro	Brett Cecil	LAA	TOR	TOR	52.941	52.941	54.44	LAA	10	6	16
50	04-06-11	Tyson Ross	Jesse Litsch	OAK	TOR	TOR	52.83	52.83	45.615	TOR	3	5	8
51	06-11-11	John Lackey	Brandon Morrow	BOS	TOR	TOR	52.83	52.83	55.254	BOS	16	4	20
52	09-01-11	Luis Perez	Tommy Hunter	TOR	BAL	TOR	52.719	52.719	40.433	TOR	8	6	14
53	05-09-11	Max Scherzer	Brandon Morrow	DET	TOR	TOR	52.719	52.719	54.524	DET	10	5	15
54	08-18-2011	Ricky Romero	Trevor Cahill	TOR	OAK	TOR	52.719	52.719	45.056	TOR	7	0	7
55	09-28-2011	Brandon Morrow	Phil Humber	TOR	CHA	TOR	52.494	52.494	44.529	TOR	3	2	5
56	04-13-2011	Kyle Drabek	Jason Vargas	TOR	SEA	TOR	52.267	52.267	41.42	TOR	8	3	11
57	05-06-11	Phil Coke	Jesse Litsch	DET	TOR	TOR	52.038	52.038	50.968	TOR	4	7	11
58	08-05-11	Brad Mills	Tommy Hunter	TOR	BAL	TOR	51.807	51.807	42.24	TOR	5	4	9
59	04-12-11	Ricky Romero	Michael Pineda	TOR	SEA	TOR	51.574	51.574	50.992	SEA	2	3	5
60	09-18-2011	Freddy Garcia	Brandon Morrow	NYA	TOR	TOR	51.456	51.456	43.21	TOR	0	3	3
61	05-13-2011	Ricky Romero	Carl Pavano	TOR	MIN	TOR	51.1	51.1	50.376	TOR	2	0	2
62	07-19-2011	Michael Pineda	Brett Cecil	SEA	TOR	TOR	51.1	51.1	50.584	TOR	5	6	11
63	05-30-2011	Fausto Carmona	Jo-Jo Reyes	CLE	TOR	TOR	50.98	50.98	52.655	TOR	1	11	12
64	07-07-11	Carlos Villanueva	Zach McAllister	TOR	CLE	TOR	50.86	50.86	52.34	CLE	4	5	9
65	09-07-11	Tim Wakefield	Brandon Morrow	BOS	TOR	TOR	50.86	50.86	51.448	TOR	10	11	21
66	07-15-2011	Freddy Garcia	Brandon Morrow	NYA	TOR	TOR	50.739	50.739	50.603	TOR	1	7	8
67	05-08-11	Brad Penny	Jo-Jo Reyes	DET	TOR	TOR	50	50	53.529	DET	2	5	7
68	05-18-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Jesse Litsch	TB	TOR	TB	50	50	48.137	TB	6	5	11
69	06-08-11	Carlos Villanueva	Danny Duffy	TOR	KC	KC	50.249	49.751	49.073	TOR	9	8	17
70	08-16-2011	Brad Mills	Jason Vargas	TOR	SEA	SEA	50.249	49.751	48.504	TOR	13	7	20
71	04-19-2011	A.J. Burnett	Kyle Drabek	NYA	TOR	NYA	50.739	49.261	45.893	TOR	5	6	11
72	06-24-2011	Brandon Morrow	Jake Westbrook	TOR	STL	STL	50.739	49.261	50.474	TOR	5	4	9
73	08-10-11	Gio Gonzalez	Henderson Alvarez	OAK	TOR	OAK	50.86	49.14	47.32	TOR	4	8	12
74	07-09-11	Brandon Morrow	Josh Tomlin	TOR	CLE	CLE	51.1	48.9	52.623	TOR	5	4	9
75	08-19-2011	Brett Cecil	Rich Harden	TOR	OAK	OAK	51.1	48.9	47.266	OAK	0	2	2
76	04-22-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Jo-Jo Reyes	TB	TOR	TB	51.338	48.662	50.417	TOR	4	6	10
77	07-08-11	Jo-Jo Reyes	Mitch Talbot	TOR	CLE	CLE	51.574	48.426	49.466	TOR	11	7	18
78	04-02-11	Francisco Liriano	Kyle Drabek	MIN	TOR	MIN	51.691	48.309	42.255	TOR	1	6	7
79	05-14-2011	Jo-Jo Reyes	Nick Blackburn	TOR	MIN	MIN	51.807	48.193	50.361	TOR	9	3	12
80	07-31-2011	C.J. Wilson	Brandon Morrow	TEX	TOR	TEX	51.807	48.193	48.866	TOR	3	7	10
81	04-20-2011	Bartolo Colon	Brett Cecil	NYA	TOR	NYA	51.923	48.077	43.604	NYA	6	2	8
82	05-07-11	Justin Verlander	Ricky Romero	DET	TOR	DET	52.153	47.847	52.333	DET	1	0	1
83	08-28-2011	David Price	Brandon Morrow	TB	TOR	TB	52.267	47.733	56.684	TB	12	0	12
84	09-14-2011	Ricky Romero	John Lackey	TOR	BOS	BOS	52.267	47.733	37.852	TOR	5	4	9
85	07-06-11	Ricky Romero	Tim Wakefield	TOR	BOS	BOS	52.494	47.506	46.829	BOS	4	6	10
86	08-27-2011	Jeff Niemann	Luis Perez	TB	TOR	TB	52.494	47.506	48.539	TB	6	5	11
87	09-22-2011	Ervin Santana	Henderson Alvarez	LAA	TOR	LAA	52.719	47.281	47.16	TOR	3	4	7
88	04-23-2011	David Price	Brandon Morrow	TB	TOR	TB	52.941	47.059	48.244	TB	6	4	10
89	08-13-2011	Jered Weaver	Ricky Romero	LAA	TOR	LAA	52.941	47.059	49.141	TOR	2	11	13
90	07-30-2011	Derek Holland	Brad Mills	TEX	TOR	TEX	53.162	46.838	47.016	TEX	3	0	3
91	05-28-2011	Edwin Jackson	Carlos Villanueva	CHA	TOR	CHA	53.38	46.62	45.833	TOR	8	9	17
92	08-21-2011	Luis Perez	Guillermo Moscoso	TOR	OAK	OAK	53.38	46.62	44.877	TOR	1	0	1
93	04-08-11	Kyle Drabek	Ervin Santana	TOR	LAA	LAA	53.488	46.512	42.802	TOR	3	2	5
94	07-17-2011	Phil Hughes	Carlos Villanueva	NYA	TOR	NYA	53.488	46.512	45.526	NYA	7	2	9
95	05-04-11	Brandon Morrow	Jeff Niemann	TOR	TB	TB	53.596	46.404	48.093	TOR	3	2	5
96	05-11-11	John Lackey	Jesse Litsch	BOS	TOR	BOS	53.811	46.189	41.99	TOR	3	9	12
97	06-21-2011	Zach Stewart	Mike Minor	TOR	ATL	ATL	54.023	45.977	39.893	ATL	1	5	6
98	06-20-2011	Ricky Romero	Tim Hudson	TOR	ATL	ATL	54.233	45.767	47.167	ATL	0	2	2
99	07-10-11	Brett Cecil	Carlos Carrasco	TOR	CLE	CLE	54.338	45.662	39.97	TOR	7	1	8
100	06-18-2011	Brandon Morrow	Edinson Volquez	TOR	CIN	CIN	54.338	45.662	47.745	TOR	4	0	4
101	06-03-11	Carlos Villanueva	Zach Britton	TOR	BAL	BAL	54.442	45.558	37.967	TOR	8	4	12
102	08-04-11	Brett Cecil	Wade Davis	TOR	TB	TB	54.442	45.558	47.296	TB	6	7	13
103	07-29-2011	Alexi Ogando	Brett Cecil	TEX	TOR	TEX	54.649	45.351	44.402	TOR	2	3	5
104	06-19-2011	Carlos Villanueva	Bronson Arroyo	TOR	CIN	CIN	54.853	45.147	39.064	CIN	1	2	3
105	08-14-2011	Dan Haren	Brett Cecil	LAA	TOR	LAA	55.056	44.944	46.921	TOR	4	5	9
106	04-18-2011	Ricky Romero	Daisuke Matsuzaka	TOR	BOS	BOS	55.457	44.543	49.778	BOS	1	9	10
107	08-26-2011	James Shields	Henderson Alvarez	TB	TOR	TB	55.457	44.543	48.655	TB	6	1	7
108	09-27-2011	Henderson Alvarez	Mark Buehrle	TOR	CHA	CHA	55.85	44.15	42.618	CHA	1	2	3
109	09-03-11	Ricky Romero	Bartolo Colon	TOR	NYA	NYA	56.71	43.29	35.034	NYA	4	6	10
110	06-05-11	Jo-Jo Reyes	Jeremy Guthrie	TOR	BAL	BAL	56.989	43.011	45.207	TOR	7	4	11
111	09-26-2011	Dustin McGowan	Dylan Axelrod	TOR	CHA	CHA	56.989	43.011	42.99	CHA	3	4	7
112	09-17-2011	Bartolo Colon	Henderson Alvarez	NYA	TOR	NYA	57.447	42.553	43.12	NYA	7	6	13
113	08-02-11	Ricky Romero	David Price	TOR	TB	TB	57.537	42.463	42.687	TOR	3	1	4
114	06-22-2011	Jo-Jo Reyes	Brandon Beachy	TOR	ATL	ATL	57.537	42.463	48.336	ATL	1	5	6
115	07-14-2011	Bartolo Colon	Jo-Jo Reyes	NYA	TOR	NYA	57.537	42.463	46.57	TOR	7	16	23
116	09-13-2011	Brandon Morrow	Tim Wakefield	TOR	BOS	BOS	57.537	42.463	40.735	BOS	6	18	24
117	09-24-2011	Ricky Romero	Jeff Niemann	TOR	TB	TB	57.627	42.373	42.18	TB	2	6	8
118	08-15-2011	Henderson Alvarez	Michael Pineda	TOR	SEA	SEA	58.071	41.929	42.509	SEA	5	6	11
119	09-21-2011	Dan Haren	Dustin McGowan	LAA	TOR	LAA	58.159	41.841	43.92	LAA	7	2	9
120	04-09-11	Ricky Romero	Jered Weaver	TOR	LAA	LAA	58.246	41.754	41.401	LAA	5	6	11
121	06-10-11	Clay Buchholz	Jo-Jo Reyes	BOS	TOR	BOS	58.246	41.754	49.961	BOS	5	1	6
122	07-04-11	Brandon Morrow	John Lackey	TOR	BOS	BOS	58.42	41.58	43.825	TOR	9	7	16
123	08-30-2011	Brett Cecil	Jeremy Guthrie	TOR	BAL	BAL	58.42	41.58	41.568	BAL	5	6	11
124	04-25-2011	Kyle Drabek	Colby Lewis	TOR	TEX	TEX	58.592	41.408	41.576	TOR	6	4	10
125	04-29-2011	Ricky Romero	Freddy Garcia	TOR	NYA	NYA	58.592	41.408	38.796	TOR	5	3	8
126	05-16-2011	Kyle Drabek	Max Scherzer	TOR	DET	DET	58.592	41.408	37.055	TOR	4	2	6
127	06-25-2011	Carlos Villanueva	Jaime Garcia	TOR	STL	STL	58.592	41.408	31.7	TOR	6	3	9
128	07-16-2011	C.C. Sabathia	Ricky Romero	NYA	TOR	NYA	58.592	41.408	36.953	NYA	4	1	5
129	08-20-2011	Henderson Alvarez	Gio Gonzalez	TOR	OAK	OAK	58.592	41.408	37.088	OAK	1	5	6
130	04-30-2011	Kyle Drabek	A.J. Burnett	TOR	NYA	NYA	58.848	41.152	33.235	NYA	4	5	9
131	06-17-2011	Jo-Jo Reyes	Mike Leake	TOR	CIN	CIN	59.514	40.486	38.045	TOR	3	2	5
132	04-28-2011	Brandon Morrow	Alexi Ogando	TOR	TEX	TEX	59.596	40.404	40.566	TOR	5	2	7
133	05-01-11	Jesse Litsch	Ivan Nova	TOR	NYA	NYA	60	40	30.776	NYA	2	5	7
134	05-10-11	Jon Lester	Kyle Drabek	BOS	TOR	BOS	60.159	39.841	35.836	TOR	6	7	13
135	07-02-11	Roy Halladay	Carlos Villanueva	PHI	TOR	PHI	60.239	39.761	35.579	PHI	5	3	8
136	08-03-11	Carlos Villanueva	James Shields	TOR	TB	TB	60.239	39.761	42.201	TB	1	9	10
137	07-23-2011	Carlos Villanueva	Matt Harrison	TOR	TEX	TEX	60.552	39.448	35.976	TEX	4	5	9
138	06-27-2011	Zach Stewart	Max Scherzer	TOR	DET	DET	61.165	38.835	33.411	DET	2	4	6
139	05-23-2011	Carlos Villanueva	Bartolo Colon	TOR	NYA	NYA	61.464	38.536	29.986	TOR	7	3	10
140	05-03-11	Jo-Jo Reyes	Wade Davis	TOR	TB	TB	61.686	38.314	41.666	TB	2	3	5
141	09-05-11	Josh Beckett	Henderson Alvarez	BOS	TOR	BOS	61.832	38.168	38.201	TOR	0	1	1
142	09-25-2011	Brett Cecil	Wade Davis	TOR	TB	TB	61.832	38.168	42.733	TB	2	5	7
143	04-26-2011	Jesse Litsch	Matt Harrison	TOR	TEX	TEX	61.905	38.095	39.991	TOR	10	3	13
144	05-05-11	Ricky Romero	David Price	TOR	TB	TB	61.977	38.023	42.952	TB	1	3	4
145	09-02-11	Brandon Morrow	Ivan Nova	TOR	NYA	NYA	62.049	37.951	36.026	NYA	2	3	5
146	05-25-2011	Jo-Jo Reyes	Freddy Garcia	TOR	NYA	NYA	62.049	37.951	41.379	NYA	3	7	10
147	04-11-11	Jesse Litsch	Felx Hernandez	TOR	SEA	SEA	62.264	37.736	36.254	SEA	7	8	15
148	04-10-11	Jo-Jo Reyes	Jered Weaver	TOR	LAA	LAA	62.335	37.665	34.857	LAA	1	3	4
149	06-12-11	Jon Lester	Kyle Drabek	BOS	TOR	BOS	62.406	37.594	37.924	BOS	14	1	15
150	05-24-2011	Ricky Romero	C.C. Sabathia	TOR	NYA	NYA	62.617	37.383	29.563	NYA	4	5	9
151	04-27-2011	Jo-Jo Reyes	Derek Holland	TOR	TEX	TEX	62.756	37.244	36.988	TEX	6	7	13
152	07-03-11	Cliff Lee	Jo-Jo Reyes	PHI	TOR	PHI	63.303	36.697	39.434	TOR	4	7	11
153	04-15-2011	Brett Cecil	Clay Buchholz	TOR	BOS	BOS	63.437	36.563	44.864	TOR	7	6	13
154	09-06-11	Jon Lester	Luis Perez	BOS	TOR	BOS	63.57	36.43	38.282	BOS	14	0	14
155	09-16-2011	C.C. Sabathia	Brett Cecil	NYA	TOR	NYA	63.57	36.43	35.035	TOR	4	5	9
156	07-22-2011	Jo-Jo Reyes	Colby Lewis	TOR	TEX	TEX	64.851	35.149	34.079	TEX	2	12	14
157	09-23-2011	Brandon Morrow	David Price	TOR	TB	TB	66.499	33.501	40.97	TOR	5	1	6
158	04-16-2011	Jo-Jo Reyes	Josh Beckett	TOR	BOS	BOS	66.667	33.333	38.785	BOS	1	4	5
159	07-24-2011	Brett Cecil	Alexi Ogando	TOR	TEX	TEX	66.667	33.333	33.233	TOR	3	0	3
160	07-05-11	Brett Cecil	Jon Lester	TOR	BOS	BOS	67.213	32.787	33.084	BOS	2	3	5
161	04-17-2011	Jesse Litsch	Jon Lester	TOR	BOS	BOS	67.742	32.258	29.618	BOS	1	8	9
162	09-04-11	Brett Cecil	C.C. Sabathia	TOR	NYA	NYA	70.588	29.412	24.714	NYA	3	9	12