The Season That Was: Ricky Romero

by Tom Dakers on Nov 2, 2011 4:01 PM EDT in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis

Ricky Romero came into 2011 as our number 1 starter. In 2010 he had shown us that his rookie season was no fluke.

Our preseason predictions for Ricky were pretty uniformly optimistic. My guess:

I'm thinking more like 16-9, 32 starts, 220 innings and a 3.80 ERA.

His actual numbers:

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2011 - Ricky Romero	15-11	32	32	4	2	0	0	225.0	176	85	73	26	80	178	2.92	1.14

His ERA was a lot better than I figured. Fangraphs has him at a 2.9 WAR, giving him a value of $12.9 million for the Jays.

Ricky's strikeout rate was down a bit from last year, 7.12/9 from 7.46/9. His walk rate dropped, 3.20 from 3.51. He game up more home runs 1.04/9 from 0.64/9. He threw half as many wild pitches, 9, as in 2010. I wonder if that had more to do with him or with the catchers.

His BABIP against was a lot lower than in 2010, .242 compared to .289, but then he gave up fewer line drives,14.2% from 18.2%. He had about the same about of ground balls, 54.7% from 55.2%. He had more fly balls 31.1% from 26.5% and more of those flies left the park, 13.2% from 9.4%, which explains the extra home runs.

His FIP (4.20) and xFIP (3.80) were both much higher than his ERA.

Ricky had more success against right-handed hitters (.194/.263/.325) than lefties (.269/.372/.462), a pretty huge reverse split. Gotta like that changeup.

He was slightly better at home (.208/.290/.344) than on the road (222/.302/.384).

Ricky by month:

April: 2-3, 3.00 in 6 starts. Batters hit .228/.290/.376.

May: 3-1, 2.73 in 5 starts. .214/.292/.359.

June: 2-3, 2.50 in 5 starts. .229/.312/.321.

July: 1-2, 4.31 in 5 starts. .248/.350/.380.

August: 5-0, 2.05 in 6 starts. .160/.259/.347.

September: 2-2, 3.32 in 5 starts. .223/.283/.410.

Romero's longest win streak was 6 games. Longest losing streak was 3 games. His best Game Score was an 85, August 18 against the A's, 3 hits, complete game shutout with 2 walks and 6 strikeouts. His lowest Game Score was a 20 on July 6 against the Red Sox: 4.1 innings, 9 hits, 6 earned, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts.

Ricky has improved each season since his rookie year, but improving on this season will be pretty tough, his 2.92 ERA was 6th best in the AL. Add in that it would be tough to duplicate the .242 BABIP against. But it has a great work ethic and he is driven to be the best he can be. I'd bet last year won't be his last All-Star appearance.

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Dear Ricky

Please never leave us

Sincerely,
BBB

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Nov 2, 2011 4:13 PM EDT reply actions

Pretty consistent month to month

Little blip in July, but not terrible.

It will be interesting to see if he can keep his numbers close to where they are now when his luck dragons inevitably bite him back, and also interesting to see if he can improve on the things he can control.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Nov 2, 2011 4:19 PM EDT reply actions

his August was Awesome

could it be that he didn’t face the Red Sox that month?

"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)

by HESS2479 on Nov 2, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Yup

It certainly couldn’t have hurt.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Nov 2, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

No, he didn't face the Red Sox in August

He did face them twice in September and won both decisions. One was 8.0 innings, 3 ER (4 R), 4 K, 1 BB, and the other was 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 3 BB. He might have finally got the Red Sox monkey off his back that month.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Nov 2, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course...

…EVERYONE beat the Red Sox in September.

But I hope you are right.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Nov 2, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think their bats went to sleep in September (although Youk was hurt)

Just their pitching. So that’s a good sign for Romero, hopefully.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Nov 3, 2011 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions

???

He was slightly better at home (.208/.290/.636) than at home (222/.302/.384).

"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)

by HESS2479 on Nov 2, 2011 4:24 PM EDT reply actions

I'd bet

that the home SLG should say .363

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 2, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

fixed I hope

I blog, therefore I am.

by Tom Dakers on Nov 2, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

actually his K/BB rates didn't really drop much

it’s just that his BABIP was much lower so his K/9 and BB/9 look a lot lower. his K% and BB% only dropped slightly (19.7% to 19.4% for K%, 9.3% to 8.7% for BB%)

by Jono411 on Nov 2, 2011 4:42 PM EDT reply actions

Outstanding logic

If you face fewer batters per 9 innings you are going to K and BB fewer batters per 9 innings.

Man who has four balls cannot walk

by Beer Leaguer on Nov 2, 2011 4:59 PM EDT reply actions

Why do I keep posting like this?

Comment is meant as a reply to Jono

Man who has four balls cannot walk

by Beer Leaguer on Nov 2, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

also regarding his lefty/righty splits

his xFIP has gotten successively better each year against righties, while successively worse each year against lefties (he had a big normal platoon split in 2009, had basically no split in 2010, and a big reverse split in 2011). given that his pitch mix (in particular his changeup usage) has remained relatively steady in that time, i have no idea what to make of this.

by Jono411 on Nov 2, 2011 5:01 PM EDT reply actions

bizarre

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 2, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Lets make him our ROOGY

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 2, 2011 7:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Does he throw the changeup to lefties?

I’m guessing he doesn’t because conventional baseball wisdom is that you don’t throw changeups to same handed batters. That would take away Romero’s best pitch, making him less effective against LHBs. The Rays are known to exploit this by batting same handed batters agains pitchers with good changeups hoping to take away their changeups. I believe Drew over at Ghostrunner on First (RIP) called this the Danks Theory.

If Romero does throw the change to lefties, then I’m at a loss to explain it. LHBs probably pick up the ball better coming out of Romero’s hand than RHBs do. That’s all I’ve got to explain it.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Nov 3, 2011 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions

He throws his CH to RHB 23.6% of the time

Against LHB it drops to 8.0%. He almost completely relies on his 4 seamer and 2 seamer against lefties.

Romero’s CH and CU have well above average vertical movement, which explains why he’s so good against opposite handed hitters. His FB and FT, on the other hand, have below average horizontal movement.

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 3, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Looks like I might be right

Throw the changeup to LHBs Ricky. Why doesn’t he throw lefties the curveball either? He’s going to get DanksTheory’d by the Rays if he doesn’t change his approach to LHBs.

Man cannot live on fastballs alone.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Nov 3, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions