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Around SBN: Stan Van Gundy Fired As Head Coach Of The Magic

To Find a Backup Backstop

The offseason has arrived, and the thoughts of Jays fans turn to trades for Joey Votto, signings of Prince Fielder, and landing Japanese/Persian phenoms.  The Front Office, however, needs to deal with some much more banal choices, among which is to find a reserve catcher to backup JPA for next season.

Generally speaking, you want a backup catcher to contribute in his own right and work well with the pitchers.  For the Blue Jays, we also want a strong defensive catcher to serve as a mentor to JPA, whose defence needs substantial improvement.  We also have some great recent studies on pitch framing and pitch blocking which help us evaluate catcher defence.

Jose Molina was great in most areas, especially pitch-framing: but having achieving type-B status, it makes little sense for the Jays to resign him.  With Brian Jeroloman having a poor season in Vegas, the Jays will look to the free agent market, where there are lots of flawed options.  The list includes Kelly Shoppach, Ryan Doumit, Brian Schneider, Ivan Rodriguez, Dioner Navarro, Jason Varitek, Jorge Posada, Chris Snyder, Henry Blanco, Gerald Laird, Ramon Castro, J.R. Towles, Matt Treanor, Rob Johnson, Josh Bard and Jake Fox.  Thankfully, many of these guys are horrid on various defensive aspects.  Rob Johnson, Kelly Shoppach, Dioner Navarro and Josh Bard are all well-below average at blocking pitches.  Ryan Doumit, Gerald Laird, Matt Treanor and Rob Johnson (again) are among the worst at framing pitches.  Jorge Posada, of course, is at the bottom of both lists and should not be catching any longer.  That leaves Rodriguez, Varitek, Schnieder, Blanco, Snyder, Castro, Towles and Fox.  Jake Fox has played more at third and in the outfield than at catcher, and for good reason: he isn't a very good catcher.  J.R. Towles, while not atrocious at any defensive aspect is poor at all of them; in addition, he's a horrible hitter.

Jason Varitek

Retirement may be likely for Varitek (he will be 40 a few weeks into next season), but he can still hit (84 wRC+ over the past 3 years), and he's been quite good at blocking pitches over the past few years (+2.9 Runs/120 games).  He's below average at framing pitches, but not horribly so (-0.5% per pitch).  Varitek, of course, cannot throw anyone out on the basepaths any longer (and never was very good at it)

Chris Snyder

Snyder is the youngest in our group at 31, and probably the most likely to be signed as a starter.  He has hit well (86 wRC+ over 3 years), but he's below average at blocking pitches (-2.1 R/120).  He's slightly above average at framing pitches (+0.3%), and around average throwing runners out.  Snyder was a type-B player, and might offer the best chance at getting a draft pick out of our reserve.

Henry Blanco

Blanco is old at 40, but he's hit well recently (89 wRC+ 2009-2011, and 127 last year).  His lifetime wRC+ is just 65, so some of his hitting prowess is likely mirage.  He's exactly average at pitch framing, good at blocking pitches (+1.7 R/120), and well above-average at controlling the running game.

Ramon Castro

Surprisingly, Castro has been recently the best hitter in this group, nearly league-average (99 wRC+); and at 36 he's a little more likely to sustain his success than Blanco, Varitek and Rodriguez.  He's also marginally above-average at blocking pitches and about average at preventing stolen bases, but below-average in pitch framing (-0.5%)

Brian Schneider

A lefty, Schneider has been platooned over the last three years by the Mets and Phillies, and still only has a 67 wRC+ over that period.  Schneider is a little below average at blocking pitches (-0.6 R/120), and a little above average at framing (+0.3%).  Early in his career, Schneider was one of the best at throwing out base stealers, but the last two years he's been very poor in that regard.

Ivan Rodriguez

Quite possibly a hall-of-famer, and one of the best defensive catchers ever, Rodriguez at 40 is no longer the hitter he once was (68 wRC+ over 3 years).  However, he remains one of the best defensive catchers around, throwing out 37.5% of base-stealers over the last 3 years, and remaining above-average at pitch blocking (+1.6 R/120) and at framing pitches (+0.1%).  He's still a little faster than most catchers, and would be marginally better on the basepaths than the alternatives.

Summary

My preferred candidate would be Ivan Rodriguez: I cannot think of a better player to assist JPA in improving defensively, and he should provide some value himself.  Schneider doesn't appear to have any significant skills left, and Snyder isn't strong enough at anything defensively to make me think he could be useful as a mentor to JPA, but I was surprised by how decent Henry Blanco and Ramon Castro look, and Varitek could be a good fit as well.

Poll
Who do you want the Jays 2012 backup catcher to be?
Jason Varitek
1 votes
Ivan Rodriguez
31 votes
Chris Snyder
5 votes
Henry Blanco
1 votes
Ramon Castro
5 votes
Brian Schneider
1 votes
Travis d'Arnaud
10 votes
Someone else!
9 votes

63 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 37 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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someone else -

jose molina

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Nov 2, 2011 8:38 PM EDT reply actions  

We can sign someone just as good and then get the draft pick for free ($3M value).

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 2, 2011 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

yup

Molina’s been great, but I can’t see him repeat a .363 BABIP anytime soon. get another solid, veteran backup with good intangibles and collect a free supplemental pick

by benk on Nov 2, 2011 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

With his speed he should have a high BABIP

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 2, 2011 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Molina is 36 years old and has a career WAR of 5.4 . He is worth something to us, but the difference (if any) between him and some other free agent isn’t nearly enough to justify the loss of the draft pick.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 2, 2011 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

you have yet to answer the question

you’ve said your peace 4 times, im just curious as to your thoughts

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Nov 3, 2011 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Summary

My preferred candidate would be Ivan Rodriguez: I cannot think of a better player to assist JPA in improving defensively, and he should provide some value himself. Schneider doesn’t appear to have any significant skills left, and Snyder isn’t strong enough at anything defensively to make me think he could be useful as a mentor to JPA, but I was surprised by how decent Henry Blanco and Ramon Castro look, and Varitek could be a good fit as well.

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 3, 2011 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

thats not jaysSaskatchewan?

i didn’t know he had the same thought, thanks for pointing that out

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Nov 3, 2011 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

whoops

sorry, I thought that was jayssaskatchewan.

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 3, 2011 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Barajas

Any of the players Pikachu mentioned are fine. I would prefer Barajas if he would accept a backup role. Even if we had to pay his current salary of $3.25M or a little more it would be worth it because he is an upgrade over Molina and he would have trade value if we aren’t in contention. Also, failing that he will probably bring some compensation when he becomes a free agent.

Molina had a good offensive year ths year. That isn’t the norm for him though and I don’t expect it to continue in his age 37 season.

I didn’t read it as a question before because there was no ‘?’

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 3, 2011 6:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Otherwise, any of the players Pikachu are fine too.

If Barajas gives us a comp. pick the surplus value of the pick would pay for his salary, so he is essentially free. He might be able to get a 2 year contract now though. For Molina, we will have paid him less over the 2 years than the pick is worth. Essentially, he paid us to play here in terms of surplus value. This is especially true given that he averaged 1.1 WAR the past 2 years.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 3, 2011 6:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Asher Wojciechowski

was compensation for Rod Barajas when he left as a free agent.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 3, 2011 6:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Couldn't the Jays work a deal?

Another team signs Jose and we sign their backup catcher. Then, at the beginning of spring training we swap catchers. Both teams end up with the backup catcher they want and a free draft pick.

There’s probably rules against this sort of thing.

by siggian on Nov 3, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't want him AT ALL

but I think Farrell will want Tek..to tutor JP and help a young pitching staff will be the reasoning.

by ABsteve on Nov 2, 2011 9:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Rod Barajas

maybe, but he might still want a starting role.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 2, 2011 9:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Thanks!

I do think Barajas will be picked up as a starter somewhere, which is why I didn’t discuss him. He’s probably the second-best option on the market this winter, though I could see a team prefer Snyder.

by gabrielsyme on Nov 2, 2011 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

definitely don't want d'Arnaud backing up JP

for two reasons. first, Travis needs to play everyday to work on his overall game (not that it seems like he has many holes!). second, if d’Arnaud is as good as we hope, JP needs to play often to build trade value.

by benk on Nov 2, 2011 9:36 PM EDT reply actions  

In our stage of building

I believe a backup catcher should do two things; mentor your young starting catcher and be able to be a replacement level player.

I’m not sure who exactly fits that mold but I’d want to lean towards a coach more than a player. (Even though at catcher, the backup sees a lot of action)

by Mike Andrew on Nov 2, 2011 10:31 PM EDT reply actions  

johnny mac just signed 2 yr deal in arizona…..so I guess we will have to wait a few yrs before we bring him back as a coach.

I guess mccoy will have to do?

by ilovelawrie on Nov 2, 2011 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Im talking like 10 years + MLB service

A ex-great player. And he has to play catcher.

by Mike Andrew on Nov 3, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

that leaves...

Ivan Rodriguez and maybe Jason Varitek

by gabrielsyme on Nov 3, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

A few other notes

Generally speaking, there is a greater difference in value between poor framers and good framers than between bad pitch blockers and good blocker. A full season for a catcher is about 1000-1200 innings. Over the last 5 years, Jose Molina has averaged 3 wins per 1000 innings by pitch framing alone; Jorge Posada and Ryan Doumit have cost their teams over 2 wins per 1000 innings catching. On the other side of things, the best pitch blocker gains about 0.7 wins over a season, and the worst cost their teams about the same.

Also, perhaps the best option for the Jays is sitting in the broadcast studio. Gregg Zaun was still a league-average hitter when he retired, he ranked second only to Jose Molina in the pitch-framing study, and he’s one of the best at blocking pitches. He’d also be a great mentor to JPA, as much as one can judge these things.

by gabrielsyme on Nov 2, 2011 11:58 PM EDT reply actions  

yeah

I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing back Zaun at all.

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 3, 2011 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

We could rotate Buck and Ashby in too :) Can we mike them up?

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 3, 2011 6:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Personally, I think I’d grab Laird. Gun of an arm, not a great defensive backstop, but considered to be a strong game caller and is coming off a one year deal. Should be cheap, already accustomed to the back-up role, and available for a year and a team option.

by dexfarkin on Nov 3, 2011 3:09 AM EDT reply actions  

The problem with Laird

Is that he sucks at pitch framing, to the tune of about 1.4 wins/120 games. That makes him below-replacement, I’m pretty sure.

by gabrielsyme on Nov 3, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Where's Raul Chavez when you need him?

I only say that half-kidding, that guy was an amazing defensive catcher, especially that arm. Of course, he’s probably close to 40 now.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Nov 3, 2011 9:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Mike McCoy

He’s played almost every other position so why not throw in back there and see what he can do.

by darthaustinius on Nov 3, 2011 10:23 PM EDT reply actions  

A question, query, or poser...

You seem to have that draft pick all figured out, but doesn’t Molina have to decline arbitration in order for you to get it? What if he decides that he’ll accept arbitration?

by Alan F. on Nov 5, 2011 2:36 AM EDT reply actions  

You try and mask your disappointment at losing the draft pick and be happy you kept one of the best options on the market for backup catchers.

by gabrielsyme on Nov 5, 2011 3:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

He's coming off of one of his best seasons ever, so

it’s entirely possible he tests the market

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 5, 2011 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sure it's possible.

But maybe he likes Toronto (and the direction of the team) and wants to stay. Looking at the list above, there’ll be lots of guys scrambling to sign for a backup role somewhere. He might not have much of a market to test.

by Alan F. on Nov 6, 2011 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

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