Blue Jays Drop Adam Loewen and Jesse Carlson From 40-Man Roster
by Tom Dakers on Nov 3, 2011 11:23 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays News
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PrintThe Blue Jays have outrighted Adam Loewen and Jesse Carlson. They could either be moved to a minor league roster or they could choose free agency.
Carlson was arbitration eligible and he missed all of last year after rotator cuff surgery. He's been a favorite of mine since he first made the team and got us out of a bases loaded, no outs jam against the Rangers. And he made a lot of friends on the site when he stood up to Jorge Posada and the Yankees late in 2010. If he leaves I'll miss him.
Loewen was a September call up this year and didn't look terrible in the few at bats he got but he is out of options, from his pitching days, so if he got sent down he would have had to clear waivers anyway. They may try to see if he would like to play with Vegas again this year but he might want to see if anyone else would like to employ him. It gives us one less Canadian on the roster.
The team did need some roster space if they are going to sign any free agents this winter.
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I liked both those guys
but I don’t really see room for either. they’re nice enough depth, but it seems unlikely either cracks the 25-man this Spring
Agreed
Hoping Loewen will take the assignment to AAA. Not sure if he will or not.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
AAA might be too crowded as well
For the Jays, you have Bautista in RF and Rasmus in CF with the winner of the Snider/Thames battle in LF. Davis is likely the 4th OF, mostly because he can play all 3 OF spots, his speed and he’s a RHB to possibly platoon with one of the lefty OFs.
Sierra and Gose probably get promoted to Vegas which takes up RF and CF. The loser of the Snider/Thames battle likely gets demoted to AAA as well, which means LF is taken. Mike McDade and Cooper probably share 1B/DH duties leaving Loewen without a position.
I would have liked to have seen more from Loewen but as the Jays roster currently stands, there’s no room at the MLB or AAA level.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I think there is room in AAA
But you have to be some type of guy to take a demotion rather than your dream of playing in the show (SOME team will take a chance on him)
Where?
There’s only room if one of Snider or Thames gets moved.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Thames can play LF and RF
Snider can play RF, CF, LF
Bautista can play RF, 3B.
Any injuries to Rasmus, Bautista, Lawrie, Snider, or Thames and we have a full starting lineup. What are the chances of all of those players going iron man on us?
judging from what we've seen in the Bigs
Thames can neither play LF nor RF
by benk on Nov 3, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Don't know if Gose
Will start the season in AAA. I can see them having him start the year in AA with a June call up.
by Keith72 on Nov 3, 2011 12:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why?
He’s doing well in the Arizona Fall League and his numbers were good in AA for his age. Plus, nobody else has the ability to play CF like Gose at AAA.
There’s also a logjam in the OF below that necessitates moving Gose up. Knecht/Marisnick/Crouse will all get moved up to Dunedin next year, meaning the current Dunedin OFs will have to move up to AA.
Gose has nothing left to prove at AA, he’ll likely move to AAA next year. The Jays only keep the prospect pitchers at AA, the hitters move to AAA before they get called up, like Lawrie, Thames, Cooper, etc.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I wouldn't be shocked if Gose started at AA
he only wOBA’d .764 and struck out 26% of the time. he played well in 2011, but not amazingly
He's been a level a year guy throughout his minor league career, each year he starts at a higher level
His numbers this year at AA are his best yet. It might have made more sense to have kept him longer at one of the A ball levels, but that wasn’t done. I’m guessing he goes to AAA.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
he probably will, and it's not a bad decision
I just don’t think it’s necessarily a bad decision to leave him in AA for a bit either
Which Dunedin Outfielders?
There’s nobody there who will push Gose for playing time. Even if you love Brad Glen, he’s not going to play CF.
My prediction is that by the end of next minor league season
Gose will be at AAA and Marisnick will be in AA, neither will be at the same level at any one time, with Marisnick starting in Dunedin and Gose will starting in AA (though I would not be surprised to see him start in AAA).
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Nov 3, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry had to actually do some work
But you have basically summarized my thoughts.
Gose is still a good age for AA
There is no one pushing him for playing time as Jake still has to show what he can do in Dunedin.
Gose had a good first year in AA but did not own it. Plus we have seen with Lawrie that AA wants pitch recognition and plate controli.e cut down on the strikeouts kid.
I can see them sending him back to AA and then June/july he goes to AAA.
This also buys us time to figure out the current LF situation.
by Keith72 on Nov 4, 2011 8:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
that's possible too
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
good point, they are quite the rogues gallery
Kenny Wilson is the best CF and he hasn’t impressed much to this point, although he’s still young. Maybe they try Justin Jackson in CF, they seem intent on making him a super utility guy.
There’s also the Rasmus factor, maybe they don’t need to be aggressive in promoting Gose. I guess he could stay in AA after all.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
so much for an all Canadian team
But it is probably the right decision, rajah davis is already holdin the 4th outfielder spot And Loewen I guess isn’t taking it
fWAR Since Trade: Shaun Marcum: 2.7 Brett Lawrie: 2.8
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by Bluebirdz on Nov 3, 2011 11:32 AM EDT via iPhone app reply actions
right now Davis is probably like 4-B
because we also have Snider, Thames, Bats and Rasmus in 4 spots. Davis is the best “4th OF” of the bunch, but still means we have 5 guys for 3 spots
I suspect (hope?) by the beginning of the season we will be without one of Snider, Thames and Davis. Especially if they are serious about EE getting at bats in LF.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
oh I hope it's not Snider nor Davis
not because I don’t like Thames, but because I think Thames is the one of those 3 who is likely to net a return closest to his “true value.” I don’t think other teams are going to give much for Snider’s potential given his “struggles”, and Davis just had one of the worst seasons of his career. Thames hit great in AAA and pretty well in MLB as a rookie; it’s possible he could net something like a high-ceiling A-ball prospect
I agree
That said, if AA can convince someone to take Snider at higher than we presently perceive his value, and EE really can play LF and restrict Thames to only hitting RHP for now…then it might be ok.
But yeah, I’m hoping that Thames is the one that is moved.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Okay Benk just admit it, you don't like Thames
That’s okay though, everybody naturally will pick favorites and… well not favorites (Jon Rauch).
If one player is struggling and one player isn’t most people would naturally take the one who isn’t struggling unless there is prior circumstances such as distaste for one player.
I would be open to trading Davis, just because any playoff team would LOVE Davis as a 4th OF/Pinch runner/Pinch bunter. The reality of the whole thing is that Davis is lucky to get on base once a game so why not just start him on the bench then pinch run him once a game to get a steal? (Not for trade value, but for wins).
I would keep Thames for now, until we see what we have got. He has some of the best power on the team, according to home run tracker, the ball of his bat goes 107.7 MPH versus 103.3 MPH for Lawrie and Bautista 106.7 MPH. He also hits the ball a lot further, average true home run distance is 408.9 feet compared to 396.9 for Lawrie and 406 feet for Bautista. I know none of this stuff is extremely scientific or should be taken really seriously but hes a 24 year old who has already developed power who just went through his rookie season in the MLB and in my opinion, did a darn good job. Lets keep him 1 more year, just to make sure we don’t sell low.
"If one player is struggling and one player isn’t most people would naturally take the one who isn’t struggling unless there is prior circumstances such as distaste for one player."
No. see: Heyward/Costanza
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There are outliers in almost all statements
Otherwise we would build a model of trading for role players and having Cito turn them into 6-8 WAR players.
"Lets keep him 1 more year, just to make sure we don’t sell low."
And what if we’re selling high?
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.
I showed bat speed numbers,
His jacks are bigger and better than anybody elses on the team and he finished top of our team (around the top, not the actual top) in doubles.
He has power, just got to figure out how to hit lefties and walk more.
but he's never shown the ability to walk
which makes me bearish on his chances of ever learning to do so.
and thanks for the “admit it, you just don’t like Thames.” very conducive to discussion, especially when I addressed EXACTLY why I said I wanted him traded of those three
actually, Benk has shown support for Thames, I doubt he dislikes him
Now, I dislike Thames. I think guys who play that bad of defence better be able to hit well, which Thames doesn’t. Sure, he hits hard home runs, but he doesn’t walk much. You know who else hits hard home runs and is a butcher in the field? Encarnacion, and he has a better eye too. Only one guy can DH and I prefer EE.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
After making that post
I read a Benk pro Thames post on another fanpost.
So I retract that statement and apologize but still,
Thames just came off his rookie season, I vote we give him 1 more season to see if he can be the real deal. He seems to work hard. Why not see what we got here.
the problem is
there’s also the very significant chance that he’s not the real deal, and trading him now is selling high. the problem, of course, is that we don’t know
Why take that chance for a low A prospect?
Even if he improves marginally on the offensive end he could be a DH or utility outfielder for years to come for Toronto. Its like trading away Pujols after his rookie season. Not to infer that Thames is Pujols, but what if he is? Or even a good starting corner outfielder for the rest of his career? Is it still worth a low A or high A prospect and hope they one day get Thames numbers.
It might be just me but I think we are in a position where we have to take chances, and we have a farm system which allows us to. Why add a #20-#30 prospect instead of test what we have? We should be trading 5-10 high A prospects for players like Thames. Small sample size in MLB, but strong showing.
I'm torn between both yours and benk's arguments
On one hand, I agree with you that Thames has much more upside, in terms of ceiling * probability of reaching it, than Davis does, and could be a very useful player if he improves on defense (This is of course not a given). Taking into account salary, team control, performance, and marketability, I think Thames beats Davis hands down as the player I would rather we keep.
With that said, you have to give both Snider and Thames full-time AB’s, including fielding, for their development. So, either you need to trade one or keep one in AAA. To me, I don’t really want to see one of them as the 4th outfielder because of this, so they really aren’t in competition with Davis. If either of Thames or Snider is sitting on the bench, I really think that it lowers their value.
Right now, I would say Thames has a higher market value compared to upside than does Snider. Therefore, trading Thames makes more sense then trading Snider, and should probably be done unless the team is happy keeping one of them in the minors for at least half of next year (and then let injuries / performance / trades take care of the rest).
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Nov 4, 2011 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm open to moving Thames to 1B
I think that they can both play full time, in baseball between days off and injuries, you can easily have two guys playing near full seasons.
Your post was an interesting read, kind of changed my opinion a little bit, thanks for all the typing :)
he's shown the ability to walk
He had respectable walk rates at every step through the minor leagues. Not elite rates, but average-or-better rates.
Angreed
He had better walk rates than Lawrie in AAA I believe (If I remember correctly)
Trouble is if you drop Davis for Thames, your team becomes more one-dimensional
Snider, Thames and Rasmus all bat LH with power. They all have some speed but aren’t burners on the basepaths. Davis gives the team a different look with his speed and RHB. He can sub in against LHPs who otherwise might give the LHB OFs problems. As a pinchrunner, he can provide more than any of the other OFs. Plus, he’s a better defender than Thames, which is what you want from a 4th OF.
If the DH slot is open, then I’m fine with Thames staying up and he can have the occassional start in LF. Otherwise, Davis provides more value than Thames at this point.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I still think it makes most sense to upgrade 1B/DH with Lind moving on, than giving up either Thames or Snider.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
But you can't get anything of value from trading Lind right now
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.
you're still giving up an asset at it's lowest value
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.
I'm not sure about the value angle
Yeah Lind is probably at his lowest value, but maybe he could go lower. You’ve only got a limited number of spots, if cutting bait on Lind at his lowest value to take on a player they think is more valuable or will increase in value more than Lind you’ve got to do it. If you had unlimited spots you could afford to hold onto Lind until/if his value improved but they’ve got the 40 man to deal with.
but I'd say
at this point, the difference between Lind’s value now and his value if he has another 2010-2011 is basically nil. if he has a decent or good season in 2012, he could be worth something if you convince the other team his struggles were due to injury or something
Thames has a couple of gory injuries on his resume too.
I’d move him I think, he’ll have value.
"If one player is struggling and one player isn’t most people would naturally take the one who isn’t struggling unless there is prior circumstances such as distaste for one player."
No. In general, you want the player who you expect to do the best going forward. You only care about past results insofar as they help you project the future.
You have one player who is 23 years old, a former top prospect, and from age 18-20 demolished the low minors, and then from age 20-23 split time between demolishing AAA and being a slightly below average hitter in the majors. He is an average to above average defender in LF.
You have another player who is 25 years old, who at the age of 23 tore up AA, and at the age of 24 tore up AAA and was a slightly above average hitter in the majors. He is a below average to horrible defender in LF.
The question is, which of these two players is more likely to have a better career? Given what we know at this time, it’d be pretty hard to make the argument that it’s player 2.
Never understood
Why people care if Jays players are Canadian. Frankly I don’t care where they come from as long as we are winning games.
Uh, because the team plays in Canada. It’s not just the Jays, look at how much extra love David Freese was getting as local kid in St Louis doing well. It adds an extra dimension of warm fuzzy feelings for fans to be able to cheer for hometown players. It’s kind of a no-brainer. You might as well just roll out a team full of robots, if we’re going to stop caring where players come from, what their personalities are like and all kinds of other intangibles that don’t matter strictly speaking, but are part of the fan experience in relating to the players we cheer for. I don’t think you have to be a jingoistic, chest-thumping, rabid Canadian nationalist – I’m certainly not – to like cheering for Canadians on the Jays or other sports teams.
"You might as well just roll out a team full of robots, if we’re going to stop caring where players come from"
If they can all hit .300 and have ERA/DIPs of 3.00, I couldn’t give a damn.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.
Cool fact I just learned about Carlson
He wore 4 numbers with the Jays in 2008: 43, 48, 59, and 39.
Follow me @BBBMinorLeaguer
Best time to do this?
A lot of teams want to keep their roster flexibility right now. It is possible they won’t get picked up.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 3, 2011 1:17 PM EDT reply actions
well nicest time to do it, gives them time to check to see if anyone wants them
I blog, therefore I am.
I liked Adam Loewen
Big guy with pop who transformed himself into a hitter after being signed as a pitcher. I though he had potential and thought maybe he could have competed for a spot spring training.
I’m surprised.
by Marcos Montenegro on Nov 3, 2011 1:49 PM EDT reply actions
I like him too
but he plays a very crowded position and hasn’t blown anyone away with his offense (though it’s certainly been good). hopefully either no one picks him up and the Jays get to keep him, or someone picks him up and gives him a starting job/4th OF position
I still think AA will trade either Snider or Thames this winter..
and I think someone will pick Loewen up:
6’6 235 27 year old that hits for average.
by Marcos Montenegro on Nov 3, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I just don't see a spot for Loewen opening up anytime soon
We have a plethora of OF in the majors that i would have playing over Loewen, and the young guns in AA and AAA have some major upside and need the playing time. I just don’t see him fitting in with us. I hope he can find a spot on some MLB team.
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I'm surprised at the lack of love for Lind and Thames
Not just any one person or even just this site, but to me Jays fans don’t give either of these guys their due respect.
Yes, Lind is one area where the Jays could definitely upgrade, but to say he has no value is to me seriously undervaluing him. I’d think that for maybe a dozen (if not more) teams he’d be a marked upgrade to their present 1st baseman. 35-40 homerun guys (2009 and 2011 if prorated to a whole season), most certainly do have value.
Thames was in his rookie year. He has a lot of work to do, but from what i’ve read and heard he has a great attitude and work ethic, and a ton of raw talent. Plus he missed a lot of prime development time to injury. As I see it, at absolute worst he’s a slightly better than replacement level player (sure, not what the Jays are looking for), but I also see him as a guy with sky high potential.
To me, trading either Thames or Snider could end up being a huge error. Both have options and both have a ton of untapped potential. Let em duke it out in March, with the loser going to Vegas. These are the type of guys you look to trade for, not to trade away.
btw, anybody hear Thames interview on the FAN? Says he’s using the offseason to rediscover his speed. Guess he used to be a bit of a burner before he blew out his legs, and plans on working this offseason to get it back. Not that it necessarily means anything, but his build certainly looks like he could be fast.
"I’d think that for maybe a dozen (if not more) teams he’d be a marked upgrade to their present 1st baseman."
Only 6 out of 34 hitters with >400PA and regular playing time at 1B were worse than Lind was in 2011 (according to wRC+): Dunn, Adam Kennedy, Huff, Overbay, Wigginton, and Moreland. two of those guys (Kennedy, Wigginton) are utility players.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.
I think Lind will fine.
He looked like his swing was all upper body the second half of the season. I wonder how much the injuries and position change hurt his swing. Maybe he’s not good enough, like some are saying, but I would give him another year to see. And if we are burning cash or assets this off-season to contend next year, I would do it on a 2nd baseman or SP before trying to add another 1st baseman
by Matthew Mueller on Nov 3, 2011 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Question
Looked a t Lind’s stats and I was surprised at how low they really were. What really jumped out at me was only 16 doubles; about half of what he’s done the last few years.
Now, my question is, not being a huge saber follower, does wRC factor in number of plate appearances? ie. would your wRC+ be affected (in comparison to others) if you had less at bats?
I realize that even with 100 more pa’s Lind would still be in the lower half; more just a ‘general knowledge’ query.
no, wRC+ is a rate stat
meaning 50 singles, 50 walks and 25 homers in 500 PAs yields the same wRC+ as 10 singles, 10 walks and 5 homers in 100 PAs
I'd imagine Loewen catches on as a 4th outfielder somewhere
He’s shown substantial progress with the bat every year since he converted; if I had room on my roster, I’d definitely take a flyer on him. Could turn into Jay Bruce-lite: power, strikes out a lot, walks a respectable amount, and plays good defence.
UPDATE: Loewen has been given his outright release and is now a free agent
The Jays are giving him the chance to get a major league job somewhere, but if he can’t find one, they will offer him another minor league contract.
Quoth our GM,
We didn’t necessary need a spot on the 40-man right now. We absolutely could have waited and done this December or January and released the player, and it wouldn’t have cost us anything. That would have been fine, but I think we would have been doing a disservice to Adam, because he would have been left scrambling to find the best fit after a lot of positions had been filled. We certainly were not going to do that to him. He has been a class act through and through with us. We like him, we just don’t want to block his path to the Major Leagues.
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Doesn't sound it is a decent thing to do, but it is.
I thought he did okay in limited playing time at the end of the season. He certainly has the power and the arm. Not so much on contact.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Nov 3, 2011 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
No it definitely is the decent, classy way to go
I like how the Jays seem to aim at being a player-friendly team but not a team that panders or gives too much to players.
Follow me @BBBMinorLeaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Nov 3, 2011 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I worded it badly.
I was trying to say “it doesn’t seem like a classy move but it most certainly was a classy move.”
My stupid sentence structure.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Nov 3, 2011 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I knew what you were saying
I agree that it is a classy move and it will be perceived as such through the baseball world. The Jays may lose Loewen because of it, but they might be able to convince other free agents to sign with an organization that treats their players with respect.
On the other hand, it could also be a reason that Loewen eventually re-signs with the Jays. He knows the organization respects him and he knows he will get good coaching. Probably the only real reason he signs with another team is because of how hard it would be to crack the Jays outfield. The Jays have got three “regulars” gunning for two positions that are also younger than Loewen plus Davis and other prospects who should only be a year or two away.
Another quote from AA in G&M
While it is not anticipated that Carlson will be back, the same can’t be for Loewen according to general manager Alex Anthopoulos.
"He very well could be back with us in spring training," the GM said on Thursday.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 3, 2011 5:05 PM EDT reply actions
If anybody is looking for that epic Yankees Jays brawl
There is a link on the BBB Facebook page.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Nov 3, 2011 6:03 PM EDT reply actions
i like the brawl after the benitez pitch…
"Touch ´em all, Joe!"
by jaysfanfromeurope on Nov 3, 2011 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
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