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Around SBN: FSU To Big 12 'Inevitable,' According To Report

What to do, What to do - Filling out the lineup card.

I have some time to kill, so I thought I would put my thoughts on paper. Then I thought I might as well get some insightful feedback. (Realize I am not addressing the pitching situation.)

So what do the Jays have right now? Let's first look at the players we expect to be a part of the next championship Jays team.

C - JP Arencibia or Travis d'Arnaud - Question marks on both, but we have depth.

1B - (Open) - Who knows? It doesn't look like Lind is the guy.

2B & SS - Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria - K Jo could be back.... Might have to fill that hole. Hech is a question mark.

3B - Brett Lawrie

OF - Colby Rasmus, Travis Snider, Anthony Gose, Jose Bautista - Question marks around Snider and Gose.

DH - Could be anyone - I like the idea of giving Edwin Encarnacion a shot here, or somewhere on the field.

So 3B, RF, CF, C, and SS are legitimate strengths, while LF and 2B are question marks, and 1B is our teams largest hole.

Second base could be sorted out for one year if Kelly Johnson accepts arbitration. If he declines, we get a nice pick, but have to figure out the hole. I'm not going to give any solutions to this problem right now, I will look at problems we know exist.

So let's look at left field, DH, and first base as one problem, so that the solution is easier to find. How do we complement our strengths with these three positions. First of all, I believe that we need to create more competition in left field. That's right more. I would try and do this without completely blocking Travis Snider, by not signing anyone who would clog the DH slot (David Ortiz or Jim Thome). I also believe first base is a hole that can not be filled in house, and should be either acquired in a trade or a signing. I recommend that the most impactful signing, should be a LHB.

My recommendation:

Sign OF Grady Sizemore, one year deal.

Bring in a high risk, high reward lefty bat that creates competition for the left field position on the team. Grady would then have to hit to keep his job, while playing a position that will be easier on his knees (I realize our turf isn't great on the knees either.) He should be great in the field, and if his bat is half as productive as 2008, we are laughing. It's a big if, and a risk, but our contingency plan is Thames, and Snider. Also, when/if Gose is ready in the next few years, we can make room for him

Do not sign a DH.

This would leave the DH slot open to give Grady some games at DH for rest, as well as let Snider split time here to keep his bat, if he comes around, in the lineup. Also if Joey Bats or any other regular needs a little rest, we will have the option of leaving their bat in the lineup. Also Encarnacion would give you platoon options all over the field, and would be another contingency.

Sign or trade for an impact 1B.

This has been talked about to death, but what if we went wild and signed Prince Fielder? Or got crazy and traded for Kendry Morales? Our lineup would be a force. Even compared to other AL Beast teams.

My recommendation costs money, or prospects, or both. But it would also give us a good shot while the Yankees get older and face pitching problems, and the Red Sox are reeling. This is our time to strike.

Projected Lineup:

1. Yunel Escobar - SS -

2. Brett Lawrie - 3B -

3. Prince Fielder/Kendry Morales/Big Lefty bat - 1B -

4. Jose Bautista - RF -

5. Colby Rasmus - CF -

6. Kelly Johnson - 2B -

7. Travis Snider/ Edwin Encarnacion/ Grady Sizemore - DH -

8. JP Arencibia - C -

9. Grady Sizemore / Travis Snider - LF -

Star-divide

Realistically, we won't be able to sign Prince unless we overpay. I'm not an advocate of that, but we are one big lefty away from a really good offense. If we were to sign David Ortiz, I would not recommend signing Sizemore, and would have to reconsider 1B as well.

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first base definitely is a hole

Lind is awful and there isn’t anyone in the minors….. Could JPA play first when D’Arnaud is ready to catch??

by yescobar on Nov 3, 2011 4:30 PM EDT reply actions  

not sure his bat plays there

he’s a good-to-very good hitter for a catcher. he’ll need to improve a lot for his bat to be able to be decent for a 1B

by benk on Nov 3, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

yup

Arencibia 2011 wRC+: 92
Lind 2011 wRC+: 95

If Lind’s bat doesn’t play at 1B, JPA’s sure won’t either. I can’t see JP being better defensively at 1B and while he may improve his hitting somewhat, I doubt he’s magically going to become a 130 wRC+ guy, given the OBA skillz he’s shown both in the minors and majors.

So maybe he can be slightly better than Lind at 1B, but that’s not really going to cut it.

by SuckaMD on Nov 3, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

But who says

that JPA can’t improve his hitting. don’t forget that he was a rookie last year. And if he moved to a less demanding position his bat could get even better.

by yescobar on Nov 3, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I find it more likely

That JPA improves as a rookie at 25/26 than Lind rebounds after two poor seasons and being at least a couple of years older.

by siggian on Nov 4, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

So the same goes for Thames then?

People can’t cut JPA a break without throwing Thames a bone.

by Mike Andrew on Nov 4, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sure

but JPA is being compared with Lind, while Thames is being compared with Snider. Completely different cases.

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

They've both got BABIP regression going for them.

JPA looks like a low-BABIP hitter; but Lind doesn’t really. I expect improvement from both. JPA has farther to go; he needs to improve his defence and plate discipline to be an above-average player. Lind just needs to improve his plate discipline.

by gabrielsyme on Nov 6, 2011 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Every off-season I hear how the Yankees and Red Sox are vulnerable

They aren’t, and they haven’t even loaded up in free agency yet.

by ABsteve on Nov 3, 2011 5:07 PM EDT reply actions  

even if the Yankees and Sox stand pat

they will still be pretty close to as good as last year, meaning easily in the top 5 teams in baseball, likely top 3 and maybe 1-2 again. They could regress slightly from this year, but slight regression from best teams in MLB is pretty damn good.

Which is why we need to acquire elite players, either through FA, trade, or develop them ourselves, to compete. If we want to compete now, FA (or trade, I suppose) is the way to go.

by SuckaMD on Nov 3, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

You missed Thames

I hope we trade Thames anyway, his value will never be higher in my opinion

by Chris McC on Nov 3, 2011 5:18 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I Really Hope

They see what the market is like for Morales, The Halos might look to deal him with Trumbo playing first

by FenixL on Nov 3, 2011 6:54 PM EDT reply actions  

We were 6th in the MLB in RS. 4 Playoff berths above us, 4 below.

I don’t think we need to improve out lineup. With terrible seasons from Lind and Hill, we still did okay. I think we need to improve on pitching which will happen naturally with our young staff.

1. Yunel Escobar – SS – Best lead off man internally

2. Edwin Encarnacion (can’t spell) – DH – Good on base percentage, lots of experience, lots of doubles

3. Jose Bautista – RF – Great overall hitter, great power good on base percentage

4. Travis Snider – LF – Power lefty bat, experts were predicting huge power numbers coming into last year.

5. Brett Lawrie – 3B – Great bat, I still think we shouldn’t demand too much of him. Take some pressure off and put him in a spot where he can be useful.

6. David Cooper – 1B – Not a fan of trading or blocking a MLB level player who just came off a MVP like season in AAA. I made many arguments of why his power numbers will come up in the MLB (He hits to CF). He is being blocked by a struggling 1B with a sub 300 OBP.

7. Colby Rasmus – CF – Again, I think we take some pressure off, let him focus on defense and improving.

8. JP Arencibia – C – Great power, hopefully his average comes up.

9. Aaron Hill – 2B – Cost effective stopgap 2B. Can’t do worse than last year… Can he?

Just my opinion. I don’t think we need any outside help.

by Mike Andrew on Nov 3, 2011 8:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Devil's advocate

The Jays were 6th in RS, but two of the teams in the division that the Jays need to pass were even better. Additionally, there’s a cluster of teams so just losing 10% of their RS next year could plummet them 15 positions or so.

EE looked to have turned the corner last year offensively, but then his history is marked by extreme streakiness. He could easily have a super cold month or two in 2012

Snider has yet to put together a solid season. He could, but he hasn’t so far.

Cooper strikes me as the classic AAAA first base man. He really strikes me as being Lyle Overbay without the glove. The Jays need to be better than that if they expect to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox.

Colby Rasmus could be really good. Perhaps the best CF since Devon White (or Whyte these days) but he’s had a down season. He’s young enough that a bounce back is a reasonable expectation.

Aaron Hill is unlikely to be back and I think KJ is more likely to be the Jays 2B. Any defensive loss over Aaron Hill is more than made up by his bat.

by siggian on Nov 4, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why not give Cooper a chance?

He won’t be a prototypical first baseman, but if he can manage to hit .310/.370 with 10 or 15 dingers then I would be happy. And he was regarded as a power hitter in the low minors, so maybe he can regain that.
Of course, who’s to say he can repeat those numbers in the bigs, and one has to wonder how much Vegas helped his stats. Although his power numbers didn’t look all that great, Vegas seems to be heaven for any type of hitter.
I say to give him a chance, but if he doesn’t work out don’t keep him around for too long.

by yescobar on Nov 4, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was going to expand on this

Cooper has every reason to succeed. In AAA the ball park was a whopping 433 feet to centre field.(1) The reason that matters is because Cooper tends to hit the ball towards the middle of the diamond (Small sample size).(2) He also (as you mentioned) has proven he can hit with power in the minor leagues, registering 20 home runs and 30 tripples in AA the year before.(3) It’s also worth noting that the number of doubles (presumably the balls hit over the CF’s head) jumped from 30 to 51 in just one year, even with less PA. I argue that David Cooper should be given a shot over Lind for at least 1 season, as he would at least post a .300+ OBP.

(1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cashman_Field
(2) http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/david-cooper/hitchart/1268586
(3) http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=cooper006dav

by Mike Andrew on Nov 4, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with you in that he should be given a shot

But still I don’t see much value coming from him mainly because he doesn’t have enough power and doesn’t have enough defense to compensate for that lost power (ie Daric Barton) still barring any signings id like to see him get a chance

fWAR Since Trade: Shaun Marcum: 2.7 Brett Lawrie: 2.8

Internet Points: 1501

by Bluebirdz on Nov 5, 2011 9:08 AM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions  

I know but I'm just trying to say

He has the power to hit 20+ consistently. And the on base percentage of a champ.

I think since Lind was given 2 years to figure things out, why can’t we risk 1 with Cooper? It’d be nice to see if he can play. I’m glad you see part of my argument (You agree he should be given a shot).

by Mike Andrew on Nov 5, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

You have a point

But at the same time look at the wildcard in our division. Scored considerably less runs than us.

Extreme streakiness? I call it extreme variance. He still finished with improved OBP, average, and the same OPS from the year before. In a minimum sample size of 60 games, he posted the 3rd highest OBP on the team. I argue that the 2nd spot needs OBP, not average or speed.

I agree on Snider, I just assumed he regained some form. He seems like he will either be a number 4 hitter or a number 9 hitter, depending on how the cookie crumbles. (All in my opinion, no fact here lol)

Cooper to me is a missed opportunity. He is the type of guy we are probably going to trade and regret it. Read my post below that states why his power numbers aren’t where they should be. I think he should be at the very least given a shot to play 1st. Give him another 50 games next season, its not like it could hurt.

Colby COULD be extremely good. I agree he is a solid player, he saved us runs based on the defensive capabilities alone. I just thought it would be nice to give him a chance to collect himself, take the pressure off.

I don’t think we are going to forfeit a chance at 3 first round picks this year and re-sign Kelly. I see us going the trade route for another 2B, a Gordon Beckham type. Under performing and needing a change of scenery. I agree Aaron Hill is both the better fielder and the worse player.

by Mike Andrew on Nov 4, 2011 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

fake lineups?! Woohoo!

1. RF Jose Bautista
2. 3B Brett Lawrie
3. CF Colby Rasmus
4. SS Yunel Escobar
5. DH Edwin Encarnacion
6. LF Travis Snider
7. 2B Kelly Johnson
8. 1B Adam Lind
9. C JP Arencibia

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 8:03 AM EDT reply actions  

ahh

switch Arencibia and Lind, Encarnacion and Snider.

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

If your batting Lind 9th...

You mind as well give Cooper a chance.

I agree with your order otherwise.

by Mike Andrew on Nov 4, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmm

I prefer

SS Yunel Escobar
3B Brett Lawrie
2B Kelly Johnson
RF Jose Bautista
CF Colby Rasmus
DH Edwin Encarnacion
LF Travis Snider (if he can figure out his batting)/Eric Thames(if he can’t)
C JP Arencibia
1B Adam Lind

I want Jedi’s power hitting 4th instead of leading off. Even in following innings, I’d prefer to have him follow on-base guys like Lawrie and Johnson instead of hackers like Lind and JPA.

by siggian on Nov 4, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

he is the best on base guy on the team

He’ll be on base for all the power hitters.

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Trade lind and an outfielder Sierra

Gio Gonzales , oakland needs the hitting

Than go after a top notch first baseman TRADE Drabek, Crouse, Cecil and Asher for Votto

Finally, resign KJ & Frankie

Coup de grace Ortiz

by jensan on Nov 5, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

So your trading

A busted prospect, a busted starter, and two good prospects for a MVP caliber player (On a different level from a top notch first baseman).

AND

A bust first baseman and a good prospect for a good number 2 starter?

If either of those trades happened I’d go streaking, I doubt either would be accepted. Then again I’m no GM. I agree with your overall point though, that we need a dramatic overhaul and some prospect for player trades IF we want to be competitive next season. (I say wait but if we weren’t, it would be through trades)

by Mike Andrew on Nov 5, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

sierra's not even that good of a prospect

I doubt he breaks top 100. Crouse probably doesn’t either, but he has a better shot. Same goes for Woj

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 5, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

top 100?

I don’t think any of those guys will be close at all

by benk on Nov 5, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

They will be close

Our 19th and 18th best prospects according to BBIM. On a top 3 farm system that’s not too shabby. I see them more in the 140-160 range if that existed. They could be top 10 prospects on some/most teams.

I still think teams would label them “Good” prospects. All depends on what you call good.

by Mike Andrew on Nov 5, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

you think we could have 20% of the top 100 prospects?

that would entail having the best farm system in history, period

by benk on Nov 5, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

We could have 19 in the 140-160 range

Meaning 13.5%-11.8%. Last year 9% of the prospects were Royals (Top 100).

I still think that number is attainable considering how talented the system is. Deck McGuire made the list this last year and Bluebird Banter ranks him as 7th (I’m pretty sure those are from the beginning of the year), insinuating that we should have 7 players on the top 100 LAST season. He was ranked at the end of the season as 10th best prospect by BBIM, after a strong showing in high A.

I don’t think what I said was that absurd… I just threw out 140-160 loosely, and you acted like I said 100.

I see them more in the 140-160 range if that existed.

you think we could have 20% of the top 100 prospects?

So either you purposely did your math wrong or read my post wrong so I’m sorry for the confusion.

by Mike Andrew on Nov 5, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not to mention a lot of players had better seasons than Deck

Yet Deck had about as good of a season as a top 100 prospect can have.

by Mike Andrew on Nov 5, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

just my fault

I missed the thing you said about the 140-160 range. I still think that’s a little optimistic, but a lot more reasonable than top 100

by benk on Nov 5, 2011 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh man

I hate when people don’t admit to being wrong. I’m wrong often enough that I’d better realize when I am

by benk on Nov 6, 2011 10:39 AM EST up reply actions  

I think Crouse might be close

something like 100~150. Sierra and Woj, not close.

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 5, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

both those trades are ridiculous, yes

but Drabek is far from a bust. it’s not as if 23-year-old power pitchers (with the experience of a 22-year-old) dominate the Majors as soon as they come up 100% of the time. that said, his value is definitely not that high right now

by benk on Nov 5, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thats what I should have said

I’m still a believer that Drabek can turn things around, I just think its unlikely a) we trade him now or b) we get anything back in a trade for him.

by Mike Andrew on Nov 5, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

okay...

I openly supported him in the past and I believe it was you who argued against me…

I just wouldn’t consider him anything more than a throw in if I was an opposing GM.

by Mike Andrew on Nov 5, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

did I?

I’ve been a fairly staunch supporter of Drabek pretty much all the time on this site, I don’t know why I’d have done that

by benk on Nov 5, 2011 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've been fairly consistant in my views too

i just might of missed that one… It might of been Nadia

I remember saying Drabek shouldn’t be converted to a RP yet and should get more time to work on his location. I thought he was rushed through the system to cover a need, and that now we are just backtracking to cover our mistakes.

My only knock is that an opposing GM wouldn’t buy low on a player that seems to have “busted”, even though I think Drabek has a fair chance to turn things around.

by Mike Andrew on Nov 5, 2011 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't trade Drabek yet

His value is at an all time low. If he doesn’t pan out, that’s fine, but you aren’t going to get anything from him. Just hope he improves and make a decision then.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Nov 25, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Is it Line-up time already. Weeeeeee!

2B Yunel Escobar R
1B Joey Votto
RF Jose Bautista R
DH Justin Morneau
3B Brett Lawrie R
CF Colby Rasmus
C Jonathan Paul Arencibia R
LF Travis Snider
SS Adeiny Hechavarria R

by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Nov 4, 2011 2:58 PM EDT reply actions  

what the

you have a Twin and a Red in there.

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah Votto is already on his way here. AA is just waiting to announce that trade.

I figure the Twins are ready to move Morneau’s contract because of his health issues and Mauer needs to play 1B. So Jays take the balance remaining off their hands and JM gets better breathing Canadian air.

This is what’s happening. Didn’t you see Inception?

by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Nov 4, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm going to keep coming back to this Post and see if anyone notices

1. 2B Yunel Escobar R
2. CF Colby Rasmus
3. RF Jose Bautista R
4. 1B Albert Pujols R
5. DH Adam Lind/EE
6. 3B Brett Lawrie R
7. LF Travis Snider/Eric Thames
8. C Jonathan Paul Arencibia R
9. SS Adeiny Hechavarria R

Rotation

Ricky Romero L
Brandon Morrow R
Rich Harden L
Henderson Alvarez R
Dustin McGowan R

Bullpen

C. Janssen
B. Cecil L
J. Litsch
J. Carreno
L. Perez L
C. Villanueva
K. Drabek

by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Nov 27, 2011 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I disagree with moving Cecil to the bullpen and signing Harden.

My rotation would be:
Ricky Romero
Brandon Morrow
Henderson Alvarez (I think hes earned it)
Brett Cecil
Joel Carreno (Groundball pitcher)

by Mike Andrew on Nov 27, 2011 7:16 PM EST up reply actions  

ITS ALIVE

LRP- Dustin McGowan
LRP- Jessie Litch
MRP- Rauch (I think he accepts arb and has a good year)
MRP- Luis Perez
SU – Casey Janson
SU – Carlos Villanueva
CP – Frank Francisco

How about yours?

by Mike Andrew on Nov 27, 2011 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Mine

I’d like to keep No RUN DMc in the rotation. I don’t think they’ll get the chance to re-sign Franky Frank but I’d like them to try for Broxton.

LRP- C. Villanueva
LRP- J. Litch
MRP- J. Carreno
LOOGY- L. Perez
SU- B. Cecil (L)
SU- C. Janssen
CP- J. Broxton

by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Nov 28, 2011 10:45 AM EST up reply actions  

A few bounce backs and the lineup is fine, let's get some pitching.

Everyone is so quick to just add a bunch of people in our lineup. The reality is that most of these fantasy bats would most likely not work out for various reasons. Honestly our lineup is quite good and when everyone was healthy a bit after the all-star break, we were rolling. I believe we need some help in the back end of the bullpen and a quality front of the rotation starter to stabilize the staff until the young pitchers mature and finds consistency.
But really with a few if’s and maybe’s, our lineup could realistically be quite potent.
1. Escobar (in a perfect world he’d be in the 2 hole, but Gose is not ready yet)
2. KJ (hope we sign him, good speed, takes walks)
3. Lawrie (If he produces like I think he will will be killer in 3 hole with his speed)
4. Bautista (I do believe his power is best suited at four if people get on base infront)
5. Rasmus ( I think he’ll break through, it’s way too early to call him a bust)
6. EE (he would need to improve on risp, but showed potential in the 2nd half)
7. Lind (such a nice swing and seemed to have found it before he injured his lower back)
8. Thames ( or snider, also might change the L/R situation)
9. JPA (don’t need a tremendous avg when your a bottom lineup catcher who produces)

Seriously, look at that lineup and imagine it stays healthy, wow, that’s got some potent potential.

I wish the 1994 strike would have never happened :(

by ExposTurnedBlue77 on Nov 23, 2011 3:21 PM EST reply actions  

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