The Game of "What If"

by King Kelly on Nov 4, 2011 11:19 AM EDT

Baseball Musings have created a fascinating new tool (well, new to me, anyway). You input a team’s lineup (with OBA and SLG) and it projects how many runs that team will score over the course of a season.

OK, so I was skeptical. I chose a Jays lineup from July (Escobar, Thames, Bautista, Lind, Hill, Encarnacion, Snider, JP, Davis) and input their data. The tool predicted that the Jays, using that lineup, would get 739 runs in 2011. Actual Jays runs scored in were 743. Not bad! I understand that a similar analysis was done for Boston, and it was also very close.

So let’s say that the tool is reasonably accurate. And let’s start the game of “what if” <grin>

The Yankees scored 867 runs in 2011 and the Red Sox scored 875. There is some variation year-to-year, so say that to be a legitimate contender the Jays would need something on the order of 850 runs.

I chose a Jays lineup that is (?) pretty close to what we would expect in 2012. Escobar, Thames, Bautista, Lind, Encarnacion, Rasmus, Lawrie, Johnson, JP. I used actual 2011 stats – probably too generous for Lawrie over a full season, and hopefully (!) too pessimistic for Rasmus, Edwin and Johnson. Projected runs for this lineup? 826.

Starting from that 826 run lineup … substitute David Ortiz for Lind? 882 runs. Substitute Fielder instead? 889.

…substitute Lind 2009 for Lind 2011? 876 runs (+50 runs)

…substitute Johnson 2010 for Johnson 2011? 838 runs (+12)

… substitute Rasmus 2010 for Rasmus 2011? 897 runs (+71)

… substitute Encarnacion post-all-star 2011 for Encarnacion 2011? 853 runs (+27)

… downgrade Lawrie from his amazing 2011 .373/.580 to, say, .325/.480? 795 runs (-31)

And one last “what if” – assume one-half of the upside from Lind, Johnson and Rasmus (i.e. 25 runs from Lind, 6 from Johnson and 35 from Rasmus) and all of the downside from Lawrie (-31 runs). Assume no free agents other than resigning Johnson (i.e. no Ortiz, no Fielder). Projected Jays runs in 2012?

861 runs. Six runs less than the Yanks in 2011, and higher than any team earned in 2010.

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That is very interesting, well done.

So it is very crucial for Rasmus to bounce back. I also like that Ortiz is roughly equal to Fielder.

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by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 11:39 AM EDT reply actions

except that was only in 2011

2009 and 2010 Ortiz were not nearly as good as Fielder, and Ortiz is moving in the direction of regression not progression

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by benk on Nov 4, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Would you be surprised if Ortiz posts a 130~140 wRC+ for the next year or two?

Fielder will probably post something like 150~160 wRC+ for the next few years, but he’ll also be getting a 6 or 7 year deal with nearly $20M yearly salary. Ortiz is much more cost effective, and (if Boston doesn’t offer arb. highly unlikely) I would assume he would be the better option here.

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by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

yes

especially if he can do it in 150 games. if Boston doesn’t offer arbitration I’d be much more open to signing him though

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by benk on Nov 4, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

and I think you have to account for some kind of regression from Bautista

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by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 11:45 AM EDT reply actions

Probability?

What are is the probability of all of these events without a significant regression in some other area? Also, we don’t need as many runs as the Sox and Yankees if we outpitch them (more likely).

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 4, 2011 12:59 PM EDT reply actions

Here’s my guess:

Lind 2009 – 20%
Johnson 2010 – 50%
Rasmus 2010 – 40%
EE Post AS – 30%

Total = 1.2%

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 4, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Really?

The Yankees pitching staff was ridiculous in 2011. Even the Red Sox, with all their problems in September, were far better than the Jays. At least if you go by FIP and fWAR. I’d say our hitting has better potential to better than their pitching.

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by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

though a lot of the difference comes from the bullpens

the Yankees bullpen is elite, and the Sox bullpen, though not elite, is very good

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by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

i’d like to see this study done with our pitching. for example, if cj wilson was in our lineup, mark buhrle, etc.

by ilovelawrie on Nov 4, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

If we had both Buhrle and Wilson

we’d have better pitching than the Red Sox by 1.5 fWAR, but worse than the Yankees 1.8 fWAR

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by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

rough estimation though

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by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Depends on how Buerhle and Wilson could do in the big boys' division

Padding your stats against teams like the Indians, Royals, A’s and Mariners is not the same as facing the Yanks, Sox, Rays and even the Orioles.

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by JaysfanDL on Nov 4, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

but it's almost the same

difference between being in the AL East vs. AL West is ~20 extra starts against the yankees and red sox at the expense of athletics and mariners (rays+orioles vs. rangers+angels is more or less a wash), which is 4 extra starts per starter. if the yankees/red sox are 1 rpg better on offense than the athletics/mariners, then that’s 3 extra runs allowed for a pitcher in the AL East vs. AL West (it would be 4 if the pitcher averaged 9 innings per start, but none do, so i’ll go with 3). in 180 innings that’s like a .15 difference in ERA.

by Jono411 on Nov 4, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

hmm, actually

the Red Sox bullpen is also elite. welp.

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by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

not if Pooplebon leaves

he was tops amongst RP in fWAR in 2011

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by benk on Nov 4, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

that's true

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by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Other than Bard, who else is there?

Aceves is ok as a longman/spot starter but guys like Albers, Wheeler et al. are not that great.

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by JaysfanDL on Nov 4, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I disagree based on the projected starting pitching of the Sox and Yankees for 2012. That could change though…

btw are we doing a runoff vote for an overall prospect list?

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 4, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

sure

you wanna do the first one? D’Arnaud vs Hutch. Though it should be pretty obvious.

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by Pikachu on Nov 4, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Okay, sounds good!

by JaysSaskatchewan on Nov 4, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

and what if you drop bautista

to a more reasonable (in terms of a 2012 projection) .400/.550?

projecting lind half-way between 2011 and 2009 is incredibly optimistic, both because it’s been 2 years now of lind hitting poorly, and because league-wide offense is way down from 2009.

and given that in ~1000 PA over 2010-2011 EE hit for a ~.340 wOBA, i think we should be projecting him at around that level for next year (ie at his 2011 level, not his second half 2011 level).

after regressing bautista, and being a lot less optimistic for lind and encarnacion, what does the projection put us at? i would accept that number as a reasonable estimate for our expected run production next year given this roster (well a bit lower than that to account for inevitable injuries). my guess is the number is a bit under 800.

by Jono411 on Nov 4, 2011 3:27 PM EDT reply actions