It's a Bad Year to be a Free Agent Closer, but a Good Year if You're Looking for One
by REMO on Nov 5, 2011 10:13 PM EDT
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PrintIt's almost impossible to predict what Alex Anthopoulos is going to do with his roster at any given moment. It seems like all his moves come out of completely nowhere. However, I'd be willing to bet almost anything that he's going to sign a proven closer this Winter. That may or may not be a good thing. I'm not a huge fan of the "closer" concept. That being said, 60-70 innings of good pitching can't be a bad thing. And if they're going to spend money on a closer, this might be a good year to do so.
The depth of high quality relievers is incredible this offseason. Also, the Yankees are set, I'd be surprised if the Red Sox would overpay a closer this year, and I doubt there are that many other teams willing to break the bank on a closer. That could lead to some pretty good deals this Winter. The Jays themselves have a number of good low cost relievers (Janssen, Carreno, Litsch, Perez, Villanueva, Cecil?). They could afford to add one or two elite arms to anchor the bullpen.
Below is the list of FA relievers, according to Cot's. I bolded those that could potentially "close" out games.
Relief Pitchers
Danys Baez PHI
Miguel Batista STL
Heath Bell SD
Blaine Boyer
Jonathan Broxton LAD
Shawn Camp TOR
Matt Capps MIN
Todd Coffey MIL
Clay Condrey MIN
Francisco Cordero CIN *
Lance Cormier TB
Juan Cruz TB
Octavio Dotel STL *
Kyle Farnsworth TB *
Randy Flores NYY
Frank Francisco TOR
Ryan Franklin STL
Chad Gaudin WAS
Mike Gonzalez TEX
John Grabow CHC
LaTroy Hawkins MIL
Brad Lidge PHI *
Scott Linebrink ATL
Javier Lopez SF
Ryan Madson PHI
Damaso Marte NYY *
Sergio Mitre NYY
Joe Nathan MIN *
Hideki Okajima BOS
Darren Oliver TEX
Jonathan Papelbon BOS
Joel Peralta TB
Chad Qualls SD *
Jon Rauch TOR *
Chris Ray TEX
Dennys Reyes BOS
Arthur Rhodes TEX *
Fernando Rodney LAA
Francisco Rodriguez MIL
George Sherrill ATL
Rafael Soriano NYY (may opt out)
Brian Tallet TOR
Koji Uehara TEX *
Jose Valverde DET
Tyler Walker WAS
Kerry Wood CHC
Jamey Wright SEA
Michael Wuertz OAK
Joel Zumaya DET
There are also some decent trade options out there, but why bother giving up something in a trade, with a market like this. A few unrelated observations: I can't remember if Shawn Camp reached type B status, but even if he did, I can't see him being offered arbitration. I'm also looking forward to seeing what the Rays are going to do. They are losing quite a few quality relievers.
Now discuss...
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I think Farnsworth was either re-signed or had his option picked up
Broxton would be a decent pickup, though I think every single team’s fans are all thinking that
Oh God
If he signs a (proven) closer this offseason, I might stop being a Jays fan.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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Really?
If he can get a really good pitcher to use in high leverage innings (most save situations are) for $3-4 M, what’s wrong with that? Farnsworth and Wood ended up being very good bargains last year.
Well
as long as he stays away from guys who’re likely to cost big bucks and draft picks, I won’t mind that much. If that’s what you’re suggesting, I’m good with it.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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I wouldn't go for most of the bolded guys
they’ll cost more than they’re worth.
I’d be interested in Broxton, Gonzalez, and maybe Zumaya
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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McGowan ?
I’m serious. Sure he can’t pitch back to back nights, but we can have a high end setup man handle that, or potentially have 2 closers. Having pitched around 56.1 innings last season, its completely out of the question to have him start for a good portion of the season.
Hes either bullpen or closer at this stage. High velocity, strikeout guy. Why not?
As far as these guys go, I elect we wait a year as this class of RP/CP seems rather thin. Joe Nathan maybbbe? I don’t really know.
He’s a diabetic and has never pitched in relief before. The medical advice has been that the safer thing to do is keep him in the rotation, and the smart thing is to keep him there until he shows he can’t handle it.
It is totally reasonable for McGowan to come close to a full season of innings. Firstly, he pitched quite a bit in extended Spring Training. Secondly, he’s pitched 190 innings in a season before. Thirdly, he’s 29 next season. I’m sure he’ll be closely monitored, but the +30 innings rule is not supposed to apply to guys like McGowan.
That has actually been debated, because I have heard the team quote that having him pitch in relief would actually be better for his arm.
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yup
Farrell said on PTS that closing might be best, since you get ample time to warm up and you’re never/rarely “surprised” by having to enter the game without fully warming.
really, I’m not terribly averse to the idea. I’m not 100% sure McGowan is going to be good enough to start (though I’m obviously thrilled he’s back, and the SSS means little for future predictions) but I’m pretty sure he could at least be a good reliever
Everybody seems so fixated on him being a starter
I just think that his particular skill set combined with his history, It’d be nice to see how he handles the bullpen/closing role.
Its also worth noting he could come back from a bullpen role and start, ala Carlos Villy. It wouldn’t close the door.
i think the real answer to this
is that nobody has any idea what would really be better for his shoulder, and this includes the trainers and coaching staff
Still
I’m willing to bet less pitches, more warm up time, and less innings wouldn’t be better than the alternative… Team doctors and trainers have a good idea of what to do.
You ask: "why bother giving up something in a trade"?
To get a good FA reliever, the Jays will have to give up a draft pick or two.
by Defense Counts! on Nov 6, 2011 12:54 AM EDT reply actions
that's absolutely a good point
I wouldn’t sign a type A reliever, and neither will AA. I also think many GM’s are thinking along the same lines. That could drive the price a lot lower for this type of player. Player agents and GM’s know this. I think that most of these players would accept arbitration if offered it. I think that quite a few players won’t be offered arbitration (e.g. Papelbon) for that reason.
The other thing to consider is the fact that the whole issue of type A/type B FA compensation might be modified in the very near future.
A draft pick or two?
You mean if they sign multiple relievers right?
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potential closers
There are a lot of “potential” closers in that list, or relief guys who have done a good job closing at one point in their career, but most of them would come with question marks: consistency, recent poor results, injury concerns, age, etc.. I don’t see us making a run for someone like Papelbon. As Pikachu points out, they’d cost too much money and draft picks. I do see us taking a run at the following potential closers:
re-signing Franky mcFrankFrank
Broxton
Francisco Cordero ( do we still have Chad Cordero on our roster?)
Soriano (if he opts out)
Some other guys AA might add to the mix, some of whom would have a shot at closing:
Zumaya
Qualls
Wuertz
Ray
Uehara (if we sign Darvish)
Unless the CBA changes, I can’t see us signing Frank (because he’s a type B). If Soriano opts out, he’s a type A as well. I’m not a fan of Broxton, Qualls, Wuertz or Ray for the 9th inning. I think Janssen would do as well as they would. Uehara is a type A, but if he is not offered arbitration, I’d be OK with him.
I like Zumaya and Cordero. Maybe Lidge and Nathan too.
oops, the bolding sort of disappeared with SB Nation's links to the players
The player’s team is still bolded though.
I’d be very surprised if AA was the the first GM to sign someone. He’ll wait for bargains, which is probably wise, given that there isn’t that much of a difference between the best pitcher in this group (Rodriguez?) and the 15th best in the group (Cordero?)
Soriano opts out
Are you saying Frankie would be elevated to type A FROM B
CBA changes
The rumours are that A-type compensation may be eliminated this offseason. B-type will remain the same, so Francisco is out. If so, I could be on board with signing a Madson/KRod type if the market flattens out.
I can't imagine it would come into place immediately
the front offices would have a fit saying they’d acquired guys counting on the compensation remaining the same. I’d imagine this would either come into place next offseason or grandfathered in (current contracts maintain current comp system). but I could easily be wrong
by benk on Nov 6, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Just reporting what I read
Sorry I can’t recall where I saw it. Basically, the report was the MLBPA wants the transfer part of type-A comp eliminated immediately and the owners are “all right, we’ll do it, but only if you agree to hard slotting”. Sandwich round comp isn’t at risk, as far as I know, just the transfer of the pick from the signing team.
welp
that’s almost guaranteed to not happen. I would think slotting is much more important than getting rid of type A to the MLBPA.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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I think the sport needs slotting
but then again, that doesn’t help the Jays.
I don't think it helps the sport at all.
You want to keep the best young talent in baseball. With a hard slotting system, guys like Bubba Starling and other multi sport stars might choose to go into the NFL, NBA, etc.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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but in the same respect
The Yankees can have a better draft than the Athletics just because of money. Instead of the best talent going to the worst team, it ends up being the best talent going to the richest team.
I think the last thing you need to worry about is guys taking other professional sports instead. Baseball is a common “Add-on” sport but still hard slotting would probably pay more in baseball than in most sports.
E.x We couldn’t sign Beede because he wanted the 3.5M at draft position 21. We offered him 2.5M. For him to get 3.5M in the NBA, he would need to be drafted 5th. Speaking of 5th overall selection, this years 5th overall pick signed for 7.5M (spread over 3 years) and Cole, the first overall pick, signed an 8M signing bonus. Not to mention baseball careers typically last longer than NFL or NBA careers. This also reminds me that the NBA draft is only 2 rounds, compared to the 50 round marathon in the MLB draft. After the 1st round, the first pick of the 2nd round only get 414k with a team option for a 2nd year.
I think the MLB overpays their prospects. Especially when you work out how many bust, I think they should have one of the lowest draft budgets. Instead teams routinely spend 10M+ in hopes to attain a future superstar. In the NBA, a lot less players bust and 1st overall picks especially usually translates to an all star.
I’m not expert either but I’m more of an NBA fan than an MLB fan, and its just a few things that I noticed.
Overslotting helps small market teams
Small market teams can’t afford to buy free agents players, and they’d much rather spend high on the draft. At least when it comes to the draft, they’re on equal footing with the big spenders
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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Debatable
They do spend a lot but its because they bite the bullet and pay these outrageous signing bonuses. They can’t afford not to.
I agree that they need to spend money on the draft instead of FA but still, if you finish worst in the MLB, to have a decent draft you have to be willing to chip out 10M+ compared to the NBA where you chip out around 5.5M tops. That is a lot of money for unproven players.
I think hard slotting would allow teams like Oakland to have better drafts than teams like New York, and would be able to help prevent the Yankees from getting top 15 talent every year. (Like think about it, the Yankees COULD HAVE drafted Daniel Norris with a 2nd round pick… Just because they can pay the bill… While Oakland could have taken him first round, but didn’t because they didn’t think he would sign)
But the Athletics had the choice to spend on the draft or not
The Pirates have an even lower payroll than the Athletics, but they shelled out money like crazy in the draft, because they know that’s the only way to keep elite talent from going to the big market teams.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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Yes but is that fair?
Many teams have to alter their draft strategy so that they can afford their players, which is a problem that NEVER comes up in any other sports.
But what team couldn't afford their players?
Other than teams like the Dodgers and Marlins, who have reasons for not spending, I see no team that actually suffered from not being able to pay their picks. The Rays took a lot of signable guys, but that’s because they just had a hell a lot of picks overall. The Athletics got Sonny Gray, an excellent prospect.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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Well we did get shafted by Mr. Beede
Because he was asking for top 15 money.
Tampa Bay also can’t spend, and they have to find guys who go for under slot.
I think its only fair to the teams if they get a fair even shot at signing whomever they want, whether its best available, college player, highschool player, it doesn’t matter. Every team in the league passed on Norris because of rumors he was demanding a lot of money, so I would argue every single team in the league thinks about money when drafting. Norris was 1st round talent, one of the best LHP out of HS available.
But most teams do have the money to spend freely on the draft
Revenue sharing almost completely guarantees that teams can spend freely, just as long as they wish to. The reason small market teams are small market teams isn’t because they don’t have the money, but because they don’t spend it. There are extreme cases like the Dodgers, who really lack the financial ability, but most teams are making money even without doing anything.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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well, okay
not neccesarily just revenue sharing (it’s really not as much as I though it was), but add that up with broadcasting contracts and central funds, and you’ve already got nearly $80M (according to this article) from doing nothing.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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there were plenty of teams that couldn’t afford to spend big bucks on draft. A lot of teams are forced to choose, spend on payroll or spend on draft.
The best players should go in order. A top round talent should go in top round.
MLB teams should have power at draft, not the 17-18 yr old kids.
With a slotting system you'd be in luck...
There wouldn’t be any 17 or 18 year old kids in the draft!
(hyperbole, obviously, but realistically you’d maybe have 10 a year)
Check yoself before you rec yoself.
It's not "couldn't afford"
it’s “wouldn’t afford”. I don’t think hard slotting should be embraced just because owners are too cheap to spend.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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good points
One thing to consider in the NBA is that a first rounder will likely join his team a lot sooner and earn big time money faster than a ball player.
The average NBA career last less than 5 years
Of course that includes 2nd round picks and players who play 3 games as a 3rd stringer before retiring but still.
First round draft picks have 2 years, then another 2 years of team options, then a qualifying offer before leaving their draft team. Even the best of players might amass 25Mish in 5 years (I’m talking like MVP’s on rookie contracts like Derrick Rose). The average NBA player is under 27 years old which makes sense considering most players retire around early 30’s (Unless they are a) big or b) amazing). Its really hard in the NBA to make money in your first 5 years in the league, which is about half of your career.
Guys like Votto sign 3 year contracts that will make him more than half a career of a MVP in the NBA.
MLB has longer careers and more money, prime players can have a lifetime earnings of around 400M, while basketball players like Rose may only get around 205M. Of course the owners want to take away raises per year and make the salaries worth less so times a changing.
I’d still rather be a NBA player because I wouldn’t have to progress through those pesky minor leagues.
MLB has more money
but even super-duper elite prospects have a ridiculously high chance of never getting a Major League contract, if only due to injury. NBA first-rounders get a guaranteed deal as soon as they’re drafted.
2 years guarenteed
And don’t forget player value.
13 players starting in the MLB (8 position, 5 pitchers), while only 5 in the NBA. Players in the MLB are considered amazing when they add 8 wins over a 162 game season, while players in the NBA can add like 10+ wins over the course of 82 (Which is like 20+ over the course of 162).
First round picks in the NBA also quickly scale down as far as salary goes.
If a team owned pick 1-20 and 22-30 in the MLB draft they could spend in the neighborhood of:
90.5M in 2011
But in the NBA, a first round in the draft, picks 1-30 only add up to:
52.3M
Thats also twice as much. Not to mention the players in the NBA are readily able to contribute and bust less frequently, and their contract comes with a friendly 2 year package of team options.
Yunel Escobar and Derrick Rose have similar contracts. What’s wrong with that statement?
I just think hard slots that cut back the salaries to around 60-80M in the first round would be nice for the game. I guess its just my opinion.
Agree to disagree then?
I like the idea of hard slotting. it’s stupid that you have to negotiate with a 17 or 18 yr old whether he is going to go college route or not.
I also think if a player enters the draft, he must sign with team that drafted him.
It is stupid for teams to be forced to ask young kids to skip on school, and overpay young kids who haven’t proved much.
I love the idea that teams who sign free agents lose their top picks.
more needs to be done to protect the small market teams and there are way too many ways the big boys can take advantage of the system.
I also think a salary cap of 150 million is needed. Large market teams will still have a big payroll, but won’t be able to buy a championship.
"more needs to be done to protect the small market teams and there are way too many ways the big boys can take advantage of the system."
And these small market teams are the ones who pocket millions of dollars that come from revenue sharing, licensing, etc. If they’d just stream the money back into the team, there really wouldn’t be any small market teams, just NYY, BOS, PHI, and several teams all around $80M~$120M range.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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A minimum cap should work better than a maximum cap
only 2 teams passed $150M in 2010. 12 failed to break $80M. Which is the problem here?
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
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heh
that’s true. But you can’t deny that many teams pocket a lot of the money. You can’t just fault the Yankees for putting the money back into the team.
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.
Draft picks still cost teams too much IMO
And they have too much leverage. A team should be able to controls that players rights even after they go back to College.
I guess I’m just a believer in a hard slotting system and your not. There’s no right answer here, its just a controversial topic.
has free agency started?
why haven’t many free agents signed with teams?
It isn’t like hockey, Many of the big names won’t sign until the Winter meetings.
Baseball’s off-season is a more drawn out process then some of the other sports.
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Damien Cox didn't know that.
Follow me @BBBMinorLeaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Nov 7, 2011 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
Nope he did not. Granted he at least asked that question during that PTS interview with Alex, so he wasn’t pretending to know what he was talking about.
I know he isn’t a Baseball guy, and a lot of time he doesn’t pretend to be. But when he started yapping about the Jays draft and failing to sign Beede he showed his ignorance.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
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