SP Trade Candidate: Gio Gonzalez?

by bunner on Nov 7, 2011 3:21 PM EST

reading MLB Trade Rumors I've noticed that Oakland may shop Gio Gonzalez in an effort to get younger and add some position players for when they may move to San Jose (?)

Being that Ricky Romero is our only regular LH starter Gio could be a good fit. Maybe as a fall back plan if Yu Darvish doesn't come to TO (or maybe as a complement to adding Darvish)?

Gio is young and under control for a few more years and some think he'll fetch the A's a similar return to what TB got for Matt Garza last off season (3 decent prospects) so who would you think the Jays would want to give up in a deal for Gio?

I'd be more then willing to include Thames or Snider as a start to a deal and a hitting and pitching prospect. thoughts?

Tweet Comment 43 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Decent stuff...

…but doesn’t seem to know where it’s going. I wouldn’t mind it if the price was right, but it would have to be really right. Worried those walks would only increase with the lineups of the AL East.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Nov 7, 2011 3:34 PM EST reply actions

yeah

he’s a little worse than Ricky, I think. he’s not bad at all, but I think he’ll take some significant assets to acquire and the marginal benefit of him over, like, Drabek probably isn’t worth it

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 7, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

Thames and Knecht might be worth it, he's only 26 after all

He has a nice K/9 at 8.6 over his career, but he walks to many (K:BB of 1.9:1, BB/9 of 4.4). Good ground ball percent (almost 50) FIP of almost 4, same for his xFIP, and a SERIA is about 4 too. 9.2 rWAR over the last 2 years (Ricky has 9.1) 6.7 fWAR in that same period of time (Ricky has 7)

What’s really encouraging if that he’s improved on on his peripherals this year, and most of them last year (from his half year before). He’s only 26, a super 2 this year so three more years of team control, maybe not cost control so much on that last year though. Worth a look, but could be buying high, has defiantly out performed his peripherals so far in his career.

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Nov 7, 2011 4:05 PM EST reply actions

I think it'll take a lot

He’s their best pitcher (who’s healthy), and Beane is pretty darn smart. More than what I’d be willing to give up, anyways. Something like or slightly less than what the Jays would want for Romero

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 7, 2011 4:24 PM EST reply actions

exactly

he’s a very similar to romero (a few more strikeouts, a few more walks, a few less groundballs, but overall very similar). difference is romero has a couple more years of team control.

by Jono411 on Nov 7, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

Oakland pitching also benefits quite a bit from their home park and that huge foul territory

Take all Oakland pitching stats with a grain of salt.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Nov 7, 2011 4:46 PM EST reply actions

that just depresses BABIP

has no effect on K%, BB%, GB%

by Jono411 on Nov 7, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

Had this discussion with the A's fans already this week

They’re interest starts and ends with Gose pretty much. They desperately want a CF having had nothing but trouble for years at the position. Most want Gose + a B-type prospect for Gio.

by TtD on Nov 7, 2011 4:49 PM EST reply actions

that seems like a pretty fair trade

not sure it really makes sense from our side though. i mean, gonzalez certainly projects better than cecil/alvarez/mcgowan/drabek/etc, but not by enough for me to want to give up much to get him. because it’s certainly possible that between romero, morrow, the above four, and our top pitching prospects that we have 5 starters better than gio by 2013.

unless we can get a true top of the rotation starter, i’d rather just go with what we have for next year.

by Jono411 on Nov 7, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, that's how I feel too

I think we have enough guys that should be decent and/or need to be given playing time in order to see if they’ll pan out that the only guys whose marginal upgrade would be worth assets given up would be a top-tier starter. basically, Darvish.

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 7, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions

Exact response I gave them

Fair trade but the Jays wouldn’t go for it given their love of Gose, and the fact Gio is more a #2 than a true #1.

by TtD on Nov 7, 2011 5:22 PM EST up reply actions

Why?

don’t they already have Michael Choice? Or is he playing the corners?

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 7, 2011 5:26 PM EST up reply actions

They're playing Choice in CF in the Arizona Fall League

So I assume Oakland is trying to see if he sticks there. Also, they are moving Grant Green off SS, so he may end up as a CF candidate too.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Nov 8, 2011 10:23 AM EST up reply actions

woudln’t be interested in him for Gose – maybe for Marisnick and 2 other prospects

by bunner on Nov 7, 2011 8:03 PM EST up reply actions

Really?

Marisnick is just as good of a prospect as Gose

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 7, 2011 8:11 PM EST up reply actions

I think there's a very real argument

that Marisnick is better. much better numbers this year than Gose had last, though Gose played in A ball when he was a year younger than Jake did and he played A+ when he was Marisnick’s age now. I think the two are very very close, but Marisnick has a higher ceiling

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 7, 2011 8:55 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

I think he’s better

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 7, 2011 9:08 PM EST up reply actions

Their "baseball ages" may be closer than it seems

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2008/04/the_boys_of_late_summer.html

I’ve heard Malcolm Gladwell also addresses this in Outliers

by EasyD on Nov 8, 2011 7:58 PM EST up reply actions

still seven months

and yes, Gladwell does talk about it. I really enjoy his books, but his conclusions are very often heavily criticized

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 8, 2011 8:11 PM EST up reply actions

Just started Blink

Sort of reminds me of Freakonomics

by EasyD on Nov 8, 2011 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, they're similar

I didn’t love Freakonomics. a LOT of subjective conjecture disguised as causation, IMO

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 8, 2011 11:28 PM EST up reply actions

Gose doesn't seem like Beane's type

Has it been so long that people have already forgotten about moneyball?

by yescobar on Nov 8, 2011 7:44 AM EST up reply actions

What is Beane's type?

the fat players? That wasn’t what moneyball was about.

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 8, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

Beanes type

is good players available for cheap

by SuckaMD on Nov 8, 2011 8:30 PM EST up reply actions

Gose is too toolsy

And has lots of strikeouts and doesn’t project to have a high OBP.

by yescobar on Nov 8, 2011 8:52 PM EST up reply actions

OBP (in and of itself) isnt what the A's want

they want good, undervalued players. In the early 00’s, that was fat, slow, high OBP guys. Now, those guys are more properly valued, so the A’s go in other directions. For example, they employ Mark Ellis and Cliff Pennington, 2 extremely bad low-OBP hitters who are excellent defenders. They do this because they felt that this type of player was undervalued at the time and allowed them the best chance to compete cost-effectively.

It’s not about the specific stat that the A’s pursue, it’s about value. Which player will help you win the most games for the least $$$

by SuckaMD on Nov 8, 2011 9:23 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs

This

Is exactly what moneyball is about. Finding undervalued attributes and signing players with those attributes. OBP was undervalued and the A’s exploited that. Eventually, other teams recognized it and these players were no longer undervalued.

I think the current undervalued attribute is defense (although I think the market is catching up on that). I think the next undervalued attribute will be dingerz. With more teams having better defenders and the hitting environment generally going down, hitting HRs is one way to counter the defense. If so, you’ll see batting averages tumble and whiffs increase as Rob Deer/Dave Kingman clones attempt to jack instant offense. Basically, the 2010 Jays were a few years ahead of the curve.

by siggian on Nov 9, 2011 10:31 AM EST up reply actions

I dunno

teams are willing to pay a lot for dingers (that said, players who hit a lot of dingers tend to be really good players anyway, so we’ll have to see)

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 9, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

Purely a guess on my part

Not all HR hitters are really that good. I’m figuring guys like Reynolds might become in vogue in 5 years or so. That is, the guys who only hit .240 with a lot of whiffs. The HRs will help inflate their price but the low average and whiffs will suppress it.

These things tend to run in cycles. We’ve done the OBP, Defense seems to be current. I’m guessing a return to 1980’s style is next but I’m probably wrong. Predicting the future is like that.

by siggian on Nov 9, 2011 4:07 PM EST up reply actions

No trade Thames!

I disappoint.

by Mike Andrew on Nov 7, 2011 6:20 PM EST reply actions

I like Thames too

but I really think we have to move him soon. I don’t think this team has a place for him, I don’t think he’s going to get appreciably better, and I think it’s just a matter of time before people stop seeing any upside to him. He’d make a nice extra piece in a big deal.

by EasyD on Nov 8, 2011 8:03 PM EST up reply actions

While I disagree that Thames won't get much better

Because I do think he will improve, I also think that the Jays will need to move him in the next year or so. There just won’t be enough room for him. As a young, semi-proven (he did well in his 1/2 season at MLB) player, he does have some value.

by siggian on Nov 9, 2011 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

Go for Bailey and Gio

What would you offer. Lind, Thames , Beck and Crouse

by jensan on Nov 7, 2011 7:20 PM EST reply actions

That could work if

we get Beane completely wasted

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 7, 2011 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

How wasted would we need to get him

Throw In jiminez

by jensan on Nov 7, 2011 9:12 PM EST up reply actions

still wasted

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 7, 2011 9:16 PM EST up reply actions

magnusen and farquar gets it done

by ayjackson on Nov 8, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions

Get younger? Is Gonzalez all that old?
26? For a guy that faded a bit down the stretch but was quite good for most of the year.

Granted I’ve always been high on Gio. I like guys that can miss bats, so maybe Im biased.

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Nov 8, 2011 9:13 AM EST reply actions

Yeah, I don't think Beane's being serious here

I’m not sure about this, but maybe it’s part of the plan to move to san jose? Sort of like telling Selig “If you don’t move us to SJ, we won’t compete seriously”. No idea if that goes against what Selig wants though.

Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.

by Pikachu on Nov 8, 2011 11:40 AM EST up reply actions