Should the Jays Gio for it?
Gio Gonzalez is a fine pitcher.
His combined WAR* for the 2010 and 2011 seasons of 9.2 is 7th best in the AL, and he pitched over 200 innings in both of those years. Over that period, he was in the top 10 in the AL in K/9 and ERA+. Plus he is still only 26, Plus he is under team control until 2106.
So it follows automatically that the Jays should be offering Oakland the sun and moon for his services, right?
Well, “for the sake of the argument” as we Irish folks say <grin!>, here are 7 reasons for the Jays to be wary.
Home and away
Gio’s career ERA at home is 3.56. Away is 4.32, three-quarters of a run higher. Granted, Oakland’s O.co Coliseum is a pitcher’s park, and granted that most pitchers pitch better at home, but this is still troubling. By comparison, Ricky Romero’s career stats are an ERA of 3.47 at home and 3.71 on the road.
Second half
Gio’s career ERA in the second half of the season is 4.36 – almost a full run higher than his first-half average of 3.43. His 2011 splits were even more pronounced – almost a 1.5 run difference. Raises questions about conditioning / durability / focus / etc?
If the Jays see themselves as a playoff team, should they be concerned about a pitcher with a history of fading in the second half?
Walks
Gio was first in the AL in walks in 2011, improving (?) on his second-place finish in 2010. His 2011 BB/9 of 4.4 is almost unchanged from his 2010 figure of 4.5.
In 2011, the Rogers Centre had a “home run factor” rating of 1.186 (6th highest in the majors). Oakland’s rating was 0.786 (5th lowest). Granted, a part of that difference is a strong Oakland pitching staff, but a pitcher with a history of free passes is more likely to be burned in Toronto than Oakland. Which bring us to …
Rogers Centre stats
Gio’s career ERA in the Rogers Centre is 5.09. In 2011 he only pitched one game in Toronto – 7.20 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. Small sample sizes, admittedly, so perhaps we should also consider his stats against …
The “Big Boys”
The road to the playoffs for the Jays goes through New York and Boston. We need a pitcher who can step up against those two teams.
Gio’s career ERA against the Yankees is 7.27. Against the BoSox it is 5.79. His 2011 numbers were even worse – 8.18 and 6.17, respectively.
Trade precedent
Good young starting pitchers are rarely available on the trade market. When they do come up, the price is high. Consider the Garza trade in January 2011. Tampa got Archer (#27 on the Baseball America top prospect list) and Hak-Ju Lee (#92), plus solid “extras” in Guyer (Cubs minor league system hitter of the year in 2010) and Sam Fuld.
That is the rough equivalent (based solely on rankings) of d’Arnaud + McGuire + Cooper + extras. Not cheap! And see “competition” below …
Competition
Someone once said about the stock market, “There are no good stocks or bad stocks. Only underpriced and overpriced ones”. The same is true about baseball. Vernon Wells, for example, is a good player – but overpriced at $21 million per year.
The 2011 free agent crop of pitchers is thin, and teams like the Yanks and BoSox (and Detroit, and Philly ...) are prepared to spend big to get an established SP. The more competition, the higher the price. As A-squared (Alex A) has said many times, he will pay what a player is worth but no more. But in this kind of market, a team might have to overpay to get a Gio-calibre player.
** ** ** **
In summary – would I like to see Gio in a Jays uniform? Absolutely. But only at the right price … and it is unlikely that we will be able to get him without overpaying. Having said that, A-squared has surprised us all before!
* Yes, I know that no one stat (WAR, ERA) is the “be-all and end-all”. But they provide an objective basis for discussion, and a starting point for further analysis.
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I think the Garza deal isn't that great of a comparison
the Cubs gave up far too much in the deal. Though, considering that Gio is younger and has more years, I guess it could make sense
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.
Yankees and Red Sox
May be the worst teams for a pitcher with a history of wildness to face. Both are very patient teams who are very willing to work for a walk. They also have the power to make the pitcher pay for having runners on base.
that’s the problem with bringing in free agents. the al east is a different ball game. most players stats wont translate to al east because it is that much harder. gio got lit up by bos and ny.
Gio wouldn't stand a chance
Absolutely no way I would want this guy pitching in the AL east. Same goes for Heath Bell, CJ Wilson, Jon Broxton and everyone else pitching in crap divisions.
that's a horribly biased statement
Marcum hasn’t pitched like an ace even though he’s left the AL East for a crap division
Illuminate My Heart, My Darling!
@medical_sword's #1 fan.
I would say he pitched pretty well for milwaukee
It just seems like good pitchers who leave the AL East do better than before (Ian kennedy, halladay, garza) and pitchers who come from elsewhere tend to do poorly (pavano, burnett, lackey) Of course there are always exceptions, but it’s a trend that makes perfect sense.
there's a couple reasons for that
1) moving from the AL to the NL is a big boost for pitchers. the gap between the AL and NL is much, much, much larger than the gap between AL East and rest of the AL.
2) selective memory. you’ve cherry-picked a few recent extreme examples. theoretically, the gap in ERA for a pitcher in the AL East vs. being in a different AL division should be about 0.1 (vs. about 0.5 for the Al-NL gap). my guess is that if you looked at all pitchers, that’s what you’d see.
to explain how i got the 0.1:
runs per game in 2011:
AL East: 4.81
rest of AL: 4.26
essentially half of your games are played in division, and 1/4 against each of the other two divisions (interleague is only like 10% of the schedule so i’m ignoring that). so the difference between being in the AL East and being in a different AL division is 1/4 of your games get switched from 4.81 rpg opponents to 4.26 rpg opponents. that’s a difference in runs allowed average of (4.81-4.26)/4 = .14. so moving out of the AL East you’d expect to see a drop in RA9 of about 0.14, which corresponds to a drop in ERA of about 0.13.
Thank you
I was curious as to what a quantifiable measure of the differences between the divisions could be. The difference isn’t as large as I thought it would be, but it doesn’t take into account the pressure of facing better lineups without much of a break. It also seems like pitchers outside of the AL east have developed different pitching styles than pitchers inside the east.
why would they ask for Lind though?
I don’t believe they would ask for a struggling player unless they are somehow related to AA.
They might ask for somebody in place of Lind.
I'd rather keep
And hope for the best (small sample size) and trade him.
I was open to trading him last year at the deadline. I never trusted him.
problem is
unless we want to move Bautista to first (which I don’t think the Jays want to do), a rotation of Edwin/Thames/Lind at 1B/DH is the best option we have with the current roster
You know I like Cooper :)
I think we should give him a shot.
good point actually
I wouldn’t be averse to giving him Lind’s at bats, but the Jays won’t unless they find a taker for Adam
Yay
Benk approves!
I just think he should get a 200+ PA season before we rid ourselves of him.
I don't love it
he might get on base a bit more than Lind, but he almost certainly will hit for much less power. I see them as essentially a wash – i.e. neither of them is all that good. I suppose in the absence of another option, I’d take Cooper in the short term since he’s cheaper, but I’d still much rather just try to find an actually good player even if it means spending some $$$
I disagree
Vegas is 433 feet and Cooper hits to the middle of the field. That’s why he went from 30 to 51 doubles and 20 to 9 home runs.
Hes a cheap, controllable player who hits for power (.535 slugging, good enough for 50th in the MLB if it was the same number. Beats Cano, Nelson Cruz, Jose Reyes, Michael Young, and Dan Uggla). I don’t see why people think he isn’t a capable power hitter.
because PCL numbers
particularly in Vegas, dont translate to MLB. The pitchers are worse and the parks and enviroment overwhelmingly favour hitters. Take guys out of that scenario and their numbers tank.
You say that because Cooper’s 2011 AAA slugging would be 50th in the MLB (better than Cano, Cruz, Reyes, etc), he is a capable power hitter. That is simply an apples to oranges comparison. Let’s illustrate with an example.
JP Arencibia slugged .626 his final season in Vegas. This mark is better than both 2010 and 2011 Jose Bautista. JPA is not Jose Bautista.
JP’s 2010 slugging is also >90 points higher than Cooper’s slugging average that you quoted. Then, in his first season with the Jays, Arencibia slugged .438, almost 200 points lower. A similar downward adjustment puts Cooper at .350 slugging. Even if we generously grant that Cooper will suffer only half of the decline that JPA had (even though JPA was the better AAA hitter) – that still puts him around .435, virtually identical to Lind’s .439 mark from this year. He is more likely to be lower, maybe around .400 or just below. Similarly, JPA’’s OBP dropped 77 points; A similar drop would put Cooper around .365 OBP, which is certainly better than Lind. Basically, using JPA as a model of a very good PCL AAA hitter moving to the AL East, Cooper projects as a 760 OPS+ or so hitter. Thats really not very good, though likely a bit better than Lind and cheaper.
JPA did not magically become a significantly worse hitter in the offseason between his AAA MVP season and coming to the Jays. He just went from a highly hitter friendly league against AAA pitching to facing better competition in more neutral parks. His numbers suffered accordingly, just as Cooper’s will too.
Based on likely adjustments, Cooper’s upside is about the same power as Lind, but with higher OBP. That’;s
you get a SP and a closer
First of all you would do it, what would you do, constructive criticism is appreciated with solutions
I wouldn't give up our top prospect plus an average OF plus one of our top 5 (top 3) pitching prospects
for a reliever (easily replaceable) and a league-average starter
I might give up McGuire or Thames for one of them
and I’d entertain giving up both for both.
ok, maybe he's not league average
but even just D’Arnaud is a steep price to pay, and adding those other guys makes it all the steeper

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