2011 SB Nation NL Cy Young Award

by Tom Dakers on Nov 9, 2011 1:01 PM EST in Fun

This week we are announcing who would win the major baseball awards if the SB Nation baseball bloggers got the vote instead of the BBWAA. On Monday we put up our Rookie of the Year vote and Tuesday we did the AL Cy Young. Today it is the NL Cy Young.

There was a little intrigue in the NL voting (I didn't get a vote, AL bloggers vote on the AL awards). They had a tie between Clayton Kershaw and Roy Hallday.

The way the BBWAA gets the point total is 7 points for a first place vote, 4 for second, 3 for third, 2 for fourth and 1 for 5th. If we just did it 5 for first and so on, Roy Halladay would have won, because one person figured there were 4 pitchers that had a better season than Clayton Kershaw. I find it pretty hard to imagine how you could list him 5th. Which 4 guys do you list in front of him?

But then I'd have given the award to Doc. He won 2 less games than Clayton and Clayton struck out a few more batters (9.57/9 compared to Roy's 8.47). Clayton's ERA was a tiny bit better (2.28 to 2.35). But Clayton pitched his home games in Dodger Stadium while Doc pitched in Citizens Bank Park. Dodgers Stadium is a big time pitchers park, Citizens Bank is a hitters park. They were 1 and 2 in the NL in ERA but I think Halladay's number is more impressive, considering where he pitched.

Doc's WAR (by Fangraphs) was 8.2 while Kershaw's was 6.8, good for first and second in the NL, respectively.

I understand it being a close vote, though I think Roy should have won, but then I don't understand the 5th place vote for Kershaw, so many the tie is the best result.

Num	Name	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Total
1	Clayton Kershaw	14	11	2	0	1	149
1	Roy Halladay	13	13	2	0	0	149
3	Cliff Lee	0	4	21	2	0	83
4	Ian Kennedy	0	0	3	14	6	43
5	Cole Hamels	1	0	0	7	8	29
6	Madison Bumgarner	0	0	0	2	3	7
7	Tim Lincecum	0	0	0	1	4	6
8	Matt Cain	0	0	0	1	3	5
9	Chris Carpenter	0	0	0	1	0	2
10	Johnny Cueto	0	0	0	0	1	1
11	Zach Greinke	0	0	0	0	1	1
12	Craig Kimbrel	0	0	0	0	1	1

Beyond that, who voted for Johnny Cueto? I mean, the guy was kind of good, but he was 9-5 in 24 starts. He threw 156 innings (not enough to be listed in the ERA race) and only struck out 6 per 9. I don't see how you pick that out as one of the top 5 pitchers in the NL. I don't really get the vote for Craig Kimbrel either but I'll write that off to a Braves fan's homerism.

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Considering ballpark factors

Halladay should’ve won by at least non-tiny margin

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 1:08 PM EST reply actions

He also didn't get to face the Giants as many times as Kershaw did

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by JaysfanDL on Nov 9, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions

i don't know

halladay’s xFIP was a little lower, but given that kershaw’s put up 700 innings with a low BABIP and an extremely low HR/FB rate, there’s evidence that he has a better than league average ability at those factors.

I think a tie is very fitting here. there’s really not much to separate them and you can make a good case for either.

by Jono411 on Nov 9, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions

Ball park factors are huge.

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by Tom Dakers on Nov 9, 2011 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

actually they're really not nearly as big as most people think

for example, the HR park factor Dodgers stadium has been around .92 over the past 3 years. so if league average HR/FB rate is 10%, then you’d expect it to be 9.6% for Dodgers pitchers (assuming half their starts at home, half on the road).

even PECTO’s is only .82 over the past 3 years (i’m guessing that’s the most extreme for HR). so if league average is 10%, you’d expect a padres pitcher to be at 9.1%.

going back to Kershaw, he has a career 6.4% HR/FB rate. that’s still well below what you’d expect in Dodgers stadium. and given he has 700 career innings, you’d want to regress that around 60% of the way to 9.6% to estimate his true talent (the stabilization point is 1000 innings, so after 700 innings 700/(1000+700) = 40% is ‘skill’). that gives us a true talent estimate of 8.2 in dodgers stadium, which is about 8.6 in the league average setting.

by Jono411 on Nov 9, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

Okay

but Halladay’s adjusted FIP is 10 percentage points lower than Kershaw’s adjusted FIP

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 2:29 PM EST up reply actions

I would pick

Kershaw, but I hope Halladay wins.

Kershaw won the pitching triple crown. I hate when people use BABIP or xFIP to determine past performance. What happened, happened and should be judged on that for awards. (We aren’t projecting for next year.)

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by T.Haynes on Nov 9, 2011 1:19 PM EST reply actions

okay

use FIP. That determines exactly what happened. Halladay has the lead over Kershaw by a bigger margin than the difference between their ERA.

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 2:29 PM EST up reply actions

Actually

ERA shows exactly what happened…

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by T.Haynes on Nov 10, 2011 3:10 AM EST up reply actions

Actually

RA shows exactly what happened…

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by Gerse on Nov 10, 2011 4:36 AM EST up reply actions

Actually

W-L shows exactly what happened…

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions

exactly what the pitcher and defense did, yes

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 10:24 AM EST up reply actions

and umpire

and luck dragon and scorer

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by benk on Nov 10, 2011 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

yeah

but that exists everywhere

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

scorer doesn't exist in FIP nor RA

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by benk on Nov 10, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions

and the effects of the luck dragon

are minimized in FIP/DIPS

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by benk on Nov 10, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions

okay

but you know what I mean

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

even DIPS have some element of luck

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

sure, but it's minimized

much smaller than ERA or RA

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by benk on Nov 10, 2011 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

okay

so we agree then

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions

surprise surprise

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by benk on Nov 10, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions

Luck should be taken into account.

If I went out and pitched 200 innings, and everyone flew out to the warning track every time and I never struck out a single batter but relied on luck I should win the award.

We use those metrics to make predictions, projections, and evaluations. Voting on the award winners should be based on what happened, not what should have happened.

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by T.Haynes on Nov 10, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

no it doesn't

what if two pitchers give up 600 fly balls to the LF warning track but this happens:

Edinson Volquez gives up 600 fly balls to LF. Jonny Gomes misses 250 of them and those 250 turn into doubles. Volquez is a terrible pitcher

Ivan Nova gives up 600 fly balls to LF. Brett Gardner misses 30 of them and those 30 turn into doubles. Ivan Nova has the best season of all time

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by benk on Nov 10, 2011 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

It's not like you made the fly balls go into the fielders' mitts

If you have a good defense, the balls will be caught. If you don’t, the balls will fall in for hits.

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions

Nope

Got lucky. But I didn’t give up any HR and my ERA was perfect, so you shouldn’t count on a repeat of my results, but you should most definitely give me the hardware for my past performance.

.313/.400/.565

by T.Haynes on Nov 10, 2011 9:47 PM EST up reply actions

but you didn't do anything

Brett Gardner did

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by benk on Nov 10, 2011 9:50 PM EST up reply actions

anything exceptional, anyway

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by benk on Nov 10, 2011 9:51 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think so

you don’t give prizes for dumb luck. I choose to only reward deserved success

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 9:51 PM EST up reply actions

I love that chart.

but when we are only dealing with the first quadrant, do we reward the better process? (Halladay) or the better outcome? (Kershaw)

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by T.Haynes on Nov 10, 2011 9:57 PM EST up reply actions

Halladay

because his outcome was better, given his park factors and whatnot

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by benk on Nov 10, 2011 10:00 PM EST up reply actions

That's fair.

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by T.Haynes on Nov 10, 2011 10:03 PM EST up reply actions

process

no question

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 10:09 PM EST up reply actions

well...

you’ll find that outcomes garner awards. Everything else gets a nice participation ribbon.

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by T.Haynes on Nov 10, 2011 10:11 PM EST up reply actions

well that's not the way it should be, is it?

Life’s not fair, of course. But you want to get as fair as possible.

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 10:12 PM EST up reply actions

Also.

Who gets the prize? Good process but bad outcome, or Bad Process and dumb luck.

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by T.Haynes on Nov 10, 2011 9:58 PM EST up reply actions

don't you want the guy with the good process to win?

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 10:14 PM EST up reply actions

The funny thing is...

If this happened. We could then prove with 95% confidence that this pitcher used skill to keep the ball in the park.

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by T.Haynes on Nov 10, 2011 10:10 PM EST up reply actions

eh

Peter Moylan gave up 0 homers over 73 IP in 2009. In 2010, he gave up 5 homers over 63.2 IP. He had a GB% upwards of 60% in both years. 0% HR/FB in 2009, 13.5% HR/FB in 2010.

Did he use skill to keep the ball in the park in 2009? If so, then why didn’t he use the same skill in 2010?

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 10:22 PM EST up reply actions

of course, I'm using a specific example to strengthen my case

but meh

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by Pikachu on Nov 10, 2011 10:22 PM EST up reply actions

wow Halladay barely tied 1st if not for the that 1 5th place vote for Kershaw

Either that person made a mistake or there was too much emphasis on being on a playoff team. I mean even if you take account of the ballparks and level competition, its hard to place Kershaw lower than 3rd

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by noname3 on Nov 9, 2011 1:23 PM EST reply actions

I would pick Halladay over Kershaw, but I could understand Kershaw winning it at least. However, if you consider home park factors (Citizen Bank Park more hitter friendly than Dodger Stadium) and quality of competition (Avg. NL East wRC+ = 93.8; Avg. NL West wRC+ = 90.8), Halladay looks better than his numbers show.

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by Frag on Nov 9, 2011 1:44 PM EST reply actions

I think Kershaw should have been declared the winner as he had more first place votes

At least that’s how I would have broken a tie.

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by Minor Leaguer on Nov 9, 2011 2:01 PM EST reply actions

We are using BBWAA rules...a tie is a tie

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by Tom Dakers on Nov 9, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

Ahh is that the way it goes?

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by Minor Leaguer on Nov 9, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions

We should do one for BBB

AL/NL CY, ROY, and MVP? Anyone wanna share the duties?

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 2:35 PM EST reply actions

sure

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by benk on Nov 9, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

mkay

I’ll do NL, you do AL? pick top 5s in the comments, with 7-4-3-2-1?

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

that's going to be a ton of work

isn’t there a way we can do it without having to add votes by hand?

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by benk on Nov 9, 2011 2:44 PM EST up reply actions

I dunno

A poll would only lead us to the winners.

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

Wait, I got it

Here, I’ll do one for NL CY. Think this could work

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions

And it won't be all that much work.

I think

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions

blah

it actually is a lot of work.

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

okay

I tweet.

by benk on Nov 9, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions

nevermind. You wanna just do polls?

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

yeah

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by benk on Nov 9, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions

yeah

so will regular voting

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by benk on Nov 9, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions

but you can only vote for one person

So whoever has the most votes automatically wins. Halladay got less 1st place votes in the SN nation one, but he tied with Kershaw

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think that will be a problem on this site

Halladay has a few fans around here.

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by JaysfanDL on Nov 9, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

so I don’t see anybody voting for guys like Hamels and Lee. So how do we know which guys are better?

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

that's a pretty serious problem

let’s reconsider

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by benk on Nov 9, 2011 3:02 PM EST up reply actions

And for things like AL MVP

I can see everybody vote for Bautista. I guess this might be a little too hard for community with specific preferences.

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

I'll put it up if you like

There’s no way to really avoid having to calculate the winner & rankings if you want to mimic BBWAA

by gabrielsyme on Nov 9, 2011 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

I just don't want to see 50 votes for Halladay, 40 for Kershaw

and 4 for all other pitchers.

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 3:07 PM EST up reply actions

We just insist everyone rank their top-5

and throw out votes for just one guy.

by gabrielsyme on Nov 9, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

Oh okay

that could work. You wanna do all of them?

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

Well, why don’t I start; if I falter, you can feel free.

I think I’ll put up both AL & NL lists at the same time.

by gabrielsyme on Nov 9, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

AL Cy Young: Ricky Romero
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay

AL ROY: Brett Lawrie
NL ROY: Who cares? It’s not Brett Lawrie.

AL MVP: Jose Bautista
NL MVP: Roy Halladay

Am I doing it rite?

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by Frag on Nov 9, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

lulz

pretty much

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by benk on Nov 9, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

You forgot Brett Lawrie

for NL ROY

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by Pikachu on Nov 9, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

You forgot Executive of the Year

Executive of the Year: Alex Anthopoulos

Now we’re even! =P

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

by Frag on Nov 9, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs