Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Stan Van Gundy Fired As Head Coach Of The Magic

Blue Jays Sign Litsch and McGowan

The Blue Jays signed Jesse Litsch and Dustin McGowan to one year contracts. Jesse will get $975,000 and Dustin $600,000 for the 2012 season. It saves them from going to arbitration.
The Jays still have 7 players eligible for arbitration: Brandon Morrow, Casey Janssen, Carlos Villanueva, Kelly Johnson, Jeff Mathis, Colby Rasmus and Ben Francisco.

Comment 240 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Great to have them

Both should be, at minimum, excellent bullpen arms and could compete for starting jobs as well

by SuckaMD on Dec 12, 2011 8:24 PM EST reply actions  

Just say it

“Can’t be worse than Jo-Jo Reyes”

by Mike Andrew on Dec 12, 2011 8:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Jo-Jo was okay at times…no you’re right, probably can’t be worse.

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 8:31 PM EST up reply actions  

McGowan should be a bargain

Would have liked to maybe see some options, but realistically there’s no way ou could structure somthing that both sides would consider a win, due to the uncertainty. I just really don’t want to see him make a nice come back, and then leave next year.

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 8:29 PM EST reply actions  

I suspect

that if McGowan turns in a strong beginning of the season, we will see him signed to an extension to eliminate his going to free agency.

by SuckaMD on Dec 12, 2011 8:31 PM EST up reply actions  

The Jays stuck with him through everything

I don’t think he’d turn his back on them and leave

by Aidin on Dec 12, 2011 8:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd hope so

But on the other hand, if he has a big year (league average starter, 2.5 WAR year or really good reliever, 1 WAR+), it could be his only chance to really cash in. Though I wouldn;t like it as a Jays fan, I wouldn’t begrudge for doing it either – everyone looks out for their own interests, especially in the baseball world.

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Money's money

If the Jays don’t offer him a fair offer, he should go.

Follow me @Minor_Leaguer

by Minor Leaguer on Dec 12, 2011 10:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Mathis signed for 1.5 million

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 12, 2011 8:30 PM EST reply actions  

From Mlbtrben on Twitter

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 12, 2011 8:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I was think more of a dam it

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 12, 2011 8:33 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Great signing.

In my opinion hes the best catcher on our 25 man.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 12, 2011 8:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you really think he's better then JPA.

Really?

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 12, 2011 8:39 PM EST up reply actions  

perhaps he thinks he's a better catcher

but not a better hitter.. if you get what I mean

by jaysbrazil on Dec 12, 2011 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Well

According to hardball times, he saves us 32.1 runs compared to JPA on pitch framing alone. Throw in game calling, passed balls, wild pitches and it becomes close.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 12, 2011 8:41 PM EST up reply actions  

surprisingly valid

though I’d imagine Arencibia’s defense will improve. not sure if Mathis’ hitting will

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I would put it at even chances tbh

Arencebia is a little bit old for big improvements and has been a catcher all throughout the minors. No reason to suspect change this year. If JP can improve behind the plate, Eric Thames can in left field.

Mathis will be in a new park with a new hitting coach. I think its possible he develops the skills to post a .250+ OBP.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 12, 2011 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

wow, you love bringing up Thames

and Mathis is 28, if you’re going to argue about one guy’s age, it should be him and not the 25-year-old

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I bring him up because hes younger than JPA and can't improve defensively?

But JP can? I think both can improve marginally, I’m a firm believer in 2nd seasons.

Mathis is older but again, a lot is changing here.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 12, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

you just brought up Thames for absolutely no reason

besides that no one thinks he’s incapable of improving. I prefer my strawmen on the Yellow Brick Road

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 8:51 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

You said JP can improve

So I mentioned so can Thames, his younger friend coming off less MLB experience.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 12, 2011 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

... yeah...

but it was totally irrelevant to the discussion of JPA vs. Mathis

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 8:53 PM EST up reply actions  

But you seem to be under the impression that Thames can't improve

But JP can? It relates to another thread but still is baseball nonetheless.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 12, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Game on.

:D

Actually tbh it might of been Pika.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 12, 2011 8:55 PM EST up reply actions  

for the record

I don’t really see him ever being “good” or even average defensively (I don’t really see it for JPA either, TBH). I think it’s unlikely he spends his entire career emulating Jonny Gomes too though

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 8:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Learning to catch

Isn’t comparable to learning LF

by Aidin on Dec 12, 2011 8:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know that one is definitively easier to learn than the other

especially because Thames presumably has been playing OF for quite a while (as JPA has catcher) so should be better if he was going to be really good defensively

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 9:01 PM EST up reply actions  

though I suppose

ceteris paribus, some random guy is going to have an easier time playing MLB LF than MLB C. but I don’t know how valid it is for current MLBers.

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, the positional adjustments

are +12.5 for catchers and -7.5 for LFs. That would suggest that it’s far easier to play catcher, because otherwise guys with good bats would stick behind the plate. The reason guys with worse bats tick at catcher, is because it’s harder to play defensively.

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

…?

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 12, 2011 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

yes, I agree

but I don’t know if that’s totally valid in comparing two Major League players’ likelihood and magnitude of potential improvement

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

It seems kind of intuitive to me that catcher would be more difficult

But again that’s just based on intuition, I have no real statistics to back that up. I guess I go along with the belief that it takes longer for catchers to develop. Thames doesn’t strike me as a guy with the “tools” to be good in the outfield. Even for him to become average would take huge strides

by Aidin on Dec 12, 2011 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

he's reasonably fast, though (Thames)

so it’s curious that he was/is so brutal defensively

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 9:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Anecdotally, absolutely

I remember some brutal jumps/reads on balls hit his way. Also, it seems gets confused about taking paths to balls sometimes

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 9:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I have no stats to back it up

so it could be moot

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 12, 2011 9:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I seem to remember a lot of... spins?

Twirling? I don’t know, spinning in circles looking for the ball I guess. Its quite comical thinking of it when the runs it cost us don’t sting as much. Maybe its just me but his arm didn’t exactly blow me away either

by Aidin on Dec 12, 2011 9:26 PM EST up reply actions  

well, it is more difficult

but that doesn’t mean it’s more difficult for a guy who breaks into the MLB as a bad catcher to improve his defense than it is for a guy who breaks in as a bad LF to improve his.

by SuckaMD on Dec 12, 2011 9:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes

But you could give JP a little more leeway for being bad since learning to catch is harder and it would take more time for him to develop his defense, was my point. On the flip side I guess you could argue since its the more difficult position to learn you’d expect Thames to imrpove at an easier position. I think this whole thing is going to go around circles

by Aidin on Dec 12, 2011 9:21 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah

a lot of opinion here because we have so little data.

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I really don't think Arencibia will improve that much

he’s not exactly an agile guy back there

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 12, 2011 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I recall

Hulet thought his defense would be passable. I feel like the scouting reports said he’d be okay, maybe even topping out at average.

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 8:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed.

I think any increase defensively will be marginal.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 12, 2011 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

I saw him improve a lot over the season

he started to make a lot of heads up plays at the end of the year, started to be quicker on his feet
throwing to 2nd on bunts, running down popups

I really believe he can improve a lot, mostly because i have witnessed some progress

No, i don’t think he will be a Pudge or a Molina, but definitely passable

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 12, 2011 10:19 PM EST up reply actions  

of course

helps that he was successful

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 10:20 PM EST up reply actions  

that too

i’m really excited to watch him next year, I think he’s going to be better then expected, and that’s awesome =D

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 12, 2011 10:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Not really

THT did a re-do of fWAR for catchers including the defense. Jeff Mathis went from a -1.0 fWAR to … -0.5 fWAR.

Derp

by Pikachu on Dec 12, 2011 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

did that include CS?

(unbiased, since I don’t know which one is better) but I don’t believe UZR takes arm into account

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

But does that include the worst stat ever, cERA

I know its a horrendous stat but we need to be realistic here. Game calling may be the single most important factor here. Its just currently unmeasurable.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 12, 2011 8:47 PM EST up reply actions  

but it's equally likely that it's the least important factor

and since we don’t know how to quantify it, we can’t really say that’s why Mathis is better without some indicator of whether or not that’s true

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

so we have no idea if he's amazing or godawful at game calling either

since you can’t measure it. Therefore, you should just ignore it for now

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 12, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

You have a point

But the little data we have (cERA within his own team) proves he is superior to other Angels catchers.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 12, 2011 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

No, not if it's a garbage stat

And I wouldn’t put much weight, if any, in cERA based on what we know.

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Also

I believe a lot of the Angels games were called from the bench, IIRC. Maybe I’m mistaken

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I believe that's true

but that shouldn’t explain the difference in cERA between the catchers, which, I’ll at least admit, definitely exists

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 12, 2011 8:53 PM EST up reply actions  

or maybe pitch framing

which we know quasi-definitively that Mathis is good at

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s one study. I’m not saying the results aren’t valid, just that I want to see more research before we take those type of numbers as the gospel. I’m very concerned about possible multicorrelation in these numbers (same pitchers throwing to same catchers).

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 8:55 PM EST up reply actions  

hence the quasi

it’s the best we got, and until someone debunks and improves on it, I’m willing to use it as a crutch

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

probably

but for his entire career as an Angel?

I’m not saying he actually has a skill, I’m just wondering if there is something going on (like Scioscia doing something special whenever mathis is catching)

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 12, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Even then

A larger sample size will give us more confidence about the inferences that were are drawing. There will still be outliers, and Mathis could be one – absent a lot more study on cERA, I don’t trust it.

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

cERA isn't the most accurate

But its the equivalent of using ERA before FIP and other peripherals. Sure there can be outliers but there tends to be a trend.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 12, 2011 8:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not convinced it does

it’s completely possible that it shows absolutely nothing at all

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

thats a possibility

But in a world with no means of measuring such a skill which is unarguably the most important part of a catchers duties, in context, whats available should be used to measure who we have.

Just my opinion but I think it is about as accurate as ERA.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 12, 2011 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

"unarguably the most important part of a catchers duties"

we could argue all day about this if you wanted, actually

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

It is logically impossible for cERA to be as accurate as ERA. ERA’s failing is that it assigns disproportionate credit to the defensive player who had the most (but not all of the) impact on the play. You’re arguing that the Catcher has exactly as much impact on each play, despite the fact that he never has to throw the ball to the batter, and often goes totally uninvolved in plays.

by Gerse on Dec 12, 2011 10:24 PM EST up reply actions  

No, that's not true

ERA is/was used, because it measures the pitcher. We know that the pitcher was a lot of control over what happens in his starts (from a run prevention perspective). Using cERA assumes the catcher is very important, and attributes results to him. Now, assuming the catcher is the most important non-pitcher run preventer, how much is the effect.

It’s like me saying, well, the Jays only allowed by 5 runs in the 3 games I went to, so my fERA (fan ERA) is 1.67. Well, yeah it is – does it mean anything, obviously not

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 9:02 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I like fERA

when can we start to calculate blogger ERA?

by jaysbrazil on Dec 12, 2011 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

out of curiosity...

who calls the games for the Jays? or rather, who called them last year?

by jaysbrazil on Dec 12, 2011 9:08 PM EST up reply actions  

just wondered as

I’ve read posts a couple of times on the site discounting the influence of Catcher X’s game calling because the bench has been calling the games… just got me wondering if anybody here knows for sure who calls them for us. I certainly don’t, but I hardly get the chance to watch them (baseball doesn’t make it to us and the internet is too slow to bother with streams) or even listen to games much anymore.

by jaysbrazil on Dec 12, 2011 9:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I know it’s become more of a trend to call games from the bench, but I don’t know exactly how much the Jays do it. To me, part of pitch calling is knowing how the pitchers stuff is on a given day, and the catcher has a better sense than the bench. I imagine Molina did most of his own calling.

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 9:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I would think

if a team decides “this catcher’s game calling is bad” (presumably they know, right?) then they’d start calling from the bench, which is why I think game-calling skill is negligible.

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 9:25 PM EST up reply actions  

this is 100% true

Mike soscia calls the games

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 12, 2011 10:15 PM EST up reply actions  

There is no (effective) 25 man right now

The active (25 man) roster is only relevant in the regular season.

And also, do you really think hes better than JPA?

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

The Blue Jays have sent the Cardinals cash considerations rather than players to be named later to complete this summer’s Colby Rasmus trade, reports MLB.com Gregor Chisholm (Twitter links). St. Louis was supposed to received three players to be named later in the deal.

AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler

by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 12, 2011 8:40 PM EST reply actions  

from MLB Trade Rumors

AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler

by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 12, 2011 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s good.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Dec 12, 2011 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Lol

That too, even though we’re probably talking less than 100K in lieu of some fungible A ballers

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

oops

missed the Fanshot

AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler

by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 12, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I would so love a long term deal for Morrow.

by leaflover4ever on Dec 12, 2011 8:44 PM EST reply actions  

I'd love to see Lawrie get Moore's deal

practically no chance it happens though. I’d be pretty happy with like a 3/20-30 extension for Morrow too

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 8:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Lawrie would get more than that

Pitchers sign at a discount to position players, becuase of the huge risk of blowout their arms means more utility in guaranteed money.

But I’d do 6/40-50M with options

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I read an article

speculating that Moore was more willing to sign his extension because he was an 8th round pick and so didn’t receive a huge signing bonus when he was drafted. A guy like Eric Hosmer, who got a $6M bonus, already has some financial security so can afford to gamble on his future production in the hopes of maximizing his arbitration payouts.

That and the general unpredictability of pitchers probably explains why Moore was willing to sign for what he did

by SuckaMD on Dec 12, 2011 8:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

Though it still doesn’t explain why he gave away free agent years. He could have done what Adrian Gonzalez did and give a sweetheart deal on his arb years, then be in line for free agency young.

With regards to Lawrie, he got about $1M iirc, which is certainly more than Moore, but not set-for-life sum really either (whereas like Hosmer’s is)

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

he could have

but maybe the Rays weren’t willing to extend him at all without Moore accepting several option years at the beginning of FA, and Moore wasn’t willing to part with the guaranteed financial security that signing his deal provided him.

by SuckaMD on Dec 12, 2011 9:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure

But hypothetically, let’s say the Rays offered that contract, and he said, I’m not giving you options on the FA years. For the Rays, the cost certainty is important, and signing the deal means they don’t have to play service time games to avoid more arb paydays when they already have a competitive team. So if he countered with, say $8M for 4 years, with 2 options, it’s hard to see Tampa Bay refusing that given their situation (though it’s clearly inferior to what he got, it’s probably better than year to year, especially if he’s great). It’s interesting, because it really gets down to negotiating, relative elasticities, understanding the constraints and desires of the other side. I find this type of stuff fascinating

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 9:25 PM EST up reply actions  

absolutely

but it’s also possible that Moore’s camp presented this and it was rejected by Tampa for whatever reason, or that Moore values the extra $7M in guarantees over the presumed higher payday in free agency.

$15M sets you up for life. It’s tough to turn down a guarantee like that when you’ve thrown something like 50 career MLB innings. Plus, it’s not like he gave away his free agency years for nothing – if his options are all picked up, he stands to make like $40M total, or something. Not exactly chump change

by SuckaMD on Dec 12, 2011 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep

I agree. Also, it guarantees that the Rays don’t play service time games, which could eat a free agency year anyway, so in some ways it’s only 1 free agent year vs. what he probably would have got, and a much better payda not to mention no more minor league time (assuming all goes well) and the 8 hour bus rides and crappy hotels that go with it

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Me too

But I don’t think it happens. I think Morrow specifically, but also his agents, know that his peripherals are elite and that if he ever puts it together in the next two years he’ll cash in big time, so why sell yourself short now when you ca still make good money.

In a related point, if he won’t agree to an extension, I could see him being traded in the offseason next year since he really wouldn;t be a piece of the core. Especially if he emerges this year and the peripherals line up somewhat with the results

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Haudricourt Tom
#Brewers GM Doug Melvin confirms that Ramirez signing officially puts him out on Prince Fielder: “I think Scott (Boras) understand that.”

As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica

by Redonred on Dec 12, 2011 9:45 PM EST reply actions  

Dodgers non-tender Kuo

get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him get him

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 12, 2011 10:00 PM EST reply actions  

wow, he's Wellsian in his inconsistency

WAR by year since 2006: 1.4, 0.4, 2.2, 0.4, 2.2, -0.4

(if you’re wondering, Wells’ wRC+ since 2006: 129, 82, 117, 86, 125, 77)

by benk on Dec 12, 2011 10:03 PM EST up reply actions  

he’s due

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 12, 2011 10:04 PM EST up reply actions  

What's interesting

Is that with Wells there’s basically a reason…it’s mostly BABIP fluctuations, and if you take two year intervals, the “inconsistency” goes away, because the BABIP is far more stable.

With a FIP based WAR measurement, we might expect some variation based on HR/FB, but you don;t really see it here. Some of it is innings based, but it’s curious.

To be honest, I’m not really sure what Pikachu thinks the Jays should/shouldn’t do in regards to him, but I think he could be worth a flyer.

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 10:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Kuo's 2009 really wasn't that bad

pretty sure he was injured, only pitched 30 innings.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 12, 2011 10:14 PM EST up reply actions  

his SIERA is only REALLY high in 2007

every other season it’s below 4 (exactly 4 in 2011)

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 12, 2011 10:15 PM EST up reply actions  

basically

take a flyer on him. He’ll cost, what, $2M? Better investment than Mr. 26

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 12, 2011 10:16 PM EST up reply actions  

thus is a horrible word to use

Im on my game tonight! look out!

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 12, 2011 10:21 PM EST up reply actions  

On the contrary

I think it’s a great word. Right among my favourites, along with conflated, fundamental and gratuitous

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 10:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I like wobbly, say it aloud, its quite fun!

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 12, 2011 10:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Bah!

Superfluous is far better than gratuitous.

“Bah!” is pretty great too.

by Gerse on Dec 12, 2011 10:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Superfluous

Another personal favourite. Even better if you use superfluous in tandem with gratuitous.

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 10:37 PM EST up reply actions  

This is the cERA thing, right?

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 10:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

The connection is there tangentially, however I can’t properly piece together how

by Gerse on Dec 12, 2011 11:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

I see it, as you said, kinda tangentially. Sort of in reverse, if you really think about it. The fallacy is that conjunctional statement is a subset of the broader statement, whereas the fallacy of cERA is that the catcher’s role in run prevention is a subset of run prevention, and by necessity less than the whole thing

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 11:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I had not heard that one previously. I like it, and am going to make a conscious effort to work it in.

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmmm. Apparently it’s spelled mellifluous.

by DavidLondon on Dec 12, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Man

All my favourites tonight. As a general rule, I love multi-syllabic words, bonus points if it rolls off the tongue easily. Also, some people hate listening to me

Sophistry is another good one

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 10:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Funny, that’s been used to describe my manner of speaking at times (though perhaps not with that exact word, and occasionally with a few unprintables attached)

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 11:07 PM EST up reply actions  

It appears that there is a non-zero chance that we’re actually the same person

by Gerse on Dec 12, 2011 11:10 PM EST up reply actions  

If I ban one of you would the other disappear?

Follow me @Minor_Leaguer

by Minor Leaguer on Dec 12, 2011 11:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Depends

Where do you fall on correlation v. causation?

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 11:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I love that

I saw a website once where you buy it printed on a t-shirt. But in the end i demurred on the purchase

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 11:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I read an article on fangraphs once

arguing that dividing a player’s career into seasons amounts to assigning arbitrary endpoints to their production and skills.

I wholeheartedly disagree with the stated premise: if one is to divide a player’s career into chunks (which is often necessary, such as in studying aging curves), seasons are decidedly the least arbitrary endpoints that can be assigned. So either you divide into seasons, IMO, or you don’t divide at all – which strikes me as more silly.

But as one example, the article used Vernon Wells’ career ISO numbers. While it has fluctuated wildly from season to season – 194, .239, .158, .197, .140, .242 and .169 from 2005 through July 2011. But if you instead break up his career into July-June blocks, the numbers show much more stability – .228, .171, .154, .176, .203, .179. A few more players are used as similar examples.

You can read it here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/seasons-are-arbitrary-endpoints/

Again, I don’t agree with the premise, but it’s an interesting take on stats fluctuations

by SuckaMD on Dec 13, 2011 12:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Right

And to correct what I wrote above, it’s ISO not BABIP that does this to Wells’ numbers.

I don’t necessarily disagree with you – the calendar is convenient, and systematical, and as you say, you’re going to have to divide and this prevents a source of cherry picking. But if a player is born Dec 31st vs. Jan 1, their season age is going to change while their calendar age is basically the same.

I think the point they were trying to make about arbitrary end points is that a lot of statistics are very volatile, and so one season’s worth of data does not give a very tight confidence interval in terms of their true talent level (the more common – and imprecise – way of saying this is the stat doesn’t stablize as quickly). So the point is, analyzing the data by season only gives you limited insight into the true talent levels because of this, but this is the most common way of analyzing data.

Now, for something like an aging curve, it probably doesn’t matter, since a good study will aggregate a ton of players anyway and the noise will cancel out. But for studying an individual player, this won’t work. So the larger point would be to consider what you are studying when you decide how to divide up the data.

by MjwW on Dec 13, 2011 12:49 AM EST up reply actions  

ya, I get what they are saying

and it’s certainly an interesting way to look at things. It’s just if you are going to break up a guy’s career into 162-game blocks (as is convenient to do for many purposes), a calendar season is the most convenient and least arbitrary way to do it since such a division is bounded on both ends by a several-month-long offseason which affords players time to recovery from injury, retool their swing, or just take a break from the grind and recharge their focus.

Such a concrete division doesnt exist for other end points one can choose. While dividing into calendar seasons may be arbitrary, it is certainly the least arbitrary division there is.

by SuckaMD on Dec 13, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions  

The daily Yu Darvish comment..

When does the silent bidding end? (I heard it was 4 days). And the club has an additional week to accept or decline, is that correct?

"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

by outoforder87 on Dec 12, 2011 10:53 PM EST reply actions  

Four business days, so Wednesday (don’t remember the exact hour). Then four days (also business days I believe) for the Japanese club to accept

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Thx!

"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

by outoforder87 on Dec 12, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions  

exacerbated is great...

…but flabbergasted is divine. And Snyder is still my starting left fielder.

by trich7170 on Dec 12, 2011 11:00 PM EST reply actions  

OriLOLes nontender JOJO

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 12, 2011 11:06 PM EST reply actions  

Actually

THat’s probably the least OriLOLe thing they’ve done in a while, lol

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 11:08 PM EST up reply actions  

LOL, I know that. They're still the OriLOLes, though

even a broken clock is right twice a day

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 12, 2011 11:10 PM EST up reply actions  

A little OT

But I see Bell/Rogers crossing each other’s platforms all the time and it strikes me as cognitively dissonant.

The weirdest was, I was watching a program online through CTV’s site/player, and the featured ad (the one that replayed every break and anyway has a visual ad beside the video) was the Rogers ad where they are bashing “Fiber” internet (a very, very clever proxy for Bell’s FIBE service). So Rogers is paying Bell for the opporunity to bash him. It’s almost literally the epitome of Lenin’s quip that capitalists will sell you the rope by which you hang them.

by MjwW on Dec 12, 2011 11:50 PM EST up reply actions  

As I understand it

The reason both don’t mind the other advertising on their networks is because they know they’re going to run the ads somewhere. If they’re going to have to deal with it either way, they’d rather get some money for it along the way.

by Gerse on Dec 12, 2011 11:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

From a business perspective, I completely understand it. It’s just…dissonant to me. And would think that they might make exceptions for ads that directly bash their service (ie, Bell accepts a Rogers ad if it promotes Rogers, but not if it bashs Bell). And maybe it just seems funny because it sort of supports a communist critique of capitalism.

Also, I think there might be legal reasons too, ie, you can’t refuse to air a commercial from someone as long as you are offering it on the same commercial terms to others. For example, when the over-the-air carriers were fighting for carriage fees from cable companies, you’d be pro/con ads on right after one another, and from a strategic sense it wouldn’t make sense to allow your opponent to run ads countering you unless you had to (or, maybe it was just a case of money)

by MjwW on Dec 13, 2011 12:02 AM EST up reply actions  

do you know why they call it fibe?

because its not actually fiber in ontario, and thats why you see fine print “only in ontario and __” manitoba i think it says.

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 12, 2011 11:55 PM EST up reply actions  

i was going to type it like that

but he didn’t and i got scared

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 13, 2011 12:00 AM EST up reply actions  

I put it as Fiber because I thought that’s how Rogers used it – I thought I recalled thinking the spelling was incorrect – but I was wrong. Mea culpa

by MjwW on Dec 13, 2011 12:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Gasp

I don’t mind it, actually kind of like it for the distinctiveness. But then again, they’re all (or mostly?) French spellings so it’s no big deal to me. What always gets me is the words that are identical in French and English, have the same sounds, except for difference suffixes: -ance v. -ence. Drives me bonkers because I get it wrong 50% of the time

by MjwW on Dec 13, 2011 12:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh, so you’re a French speaker. Apropos nothing … I think “mellifluous” comes from miel.

by DavidLondon on Dec 13, 2011 12:28 AM EST up reply actions  

From what I see, it looks like it came directly from Latin, but the distinction is pretty artificial since miel is directly from Latin as well.

by MjwW on Dec 13, 2011 12:32 AM EST up reply actions  

A little research: “a mellifluous voice” → “une voix mielleuse”.

by DavidLondon on Dec 13, 2011 10:07 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't know exactly why the name FIBE was chosen

But I imagine it tested well – sounds clean, kinda futuristic, distinctive, must of tsted well.

Not sure what you mean though – if it’s not fibre in Ontario, why would they say only in Ontario and _(whatever province)?

.

by MjwW on Dec 13, 2011 12:09 AM EST up reply actions  

rogers in the attack ads

cliam its the old phone lines but only in ontario.
Bell hasn’t laid enough new lines yet to call there network fiber in those two provinces, most are still on DSL, not the actual fiber lines that other provinces have

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 13, 2011 12:15 AM EST up reply actions  

OK, gotcha

DId not know that, interesting. As I said above, I’d guess the name tested well

by MjwW on Dec 13, 2011 12:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Pikachu is crying right now

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 13, 2011 12:03 AM EST up reply actions  

pikachu's shouldn't cry

water and electricity don’t match

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 13, 2011 12:03 AM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Could still be cheap. But don’t we already have too many people for LF/1B/DH?

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Dec 13, 2011 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Jays signed Listch 325K cheaper then MLBTR predicted. 100K cheaper for DMc.

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 13, 2011 12:12 AM EST reply actions  

And I believe they had Mathis for 1.8M, so that would be about 300K cheaper

by MjwW on Dec 13, 2011 12:14 AM EST up reply actions  

This

sorry, missed that you had put this up :P

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 13, 2011 12:17 AM EST up reply actions  

No worries.

As a sidenote, I’d be interested in looking at the predictions and comparing them to what players (who were tendered) get – from the partial numbers I’ve seen so far, it seems like the MLBTR predictions are on the high end, but that could be because players settling at this point might not do well though arb, and those who do are waiting.

by MjwW on Dec 13, 2011 12:36 AM EST up reply actions  

And 300K on Mathis

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 13, 2011 12:16 AM EST up reply actions  

So Litsch for $975k, McGowan for $600k, Mathis for $1.5 million

Follow me @Minor_Leaguer

by Minor Leaguer on Dec 13, 2011 12:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Yep

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 13, 2011 12:16 AM EST up reply actions  

thats what the post says?

i dont get how this is new

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 13, 2011 12:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Just looking at how AA signed all 3 slightly cheaper then what was expected

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 13, 2011 12:18 AM EST up reply actions  

The numbers were in tom's write up.....
he Blue Jays signed Jesse Litsch and Dustin McGowan to one year contracts. Jesse will get $975,000 and Dustin $600,000 for the 2012 season. It saves them from going to arbitration.

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 13, 2011 12:19 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm lost

and can’t be bothered to dissect semantics further =D

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 13, 2011 12:22 AM EST up reply actions  

I think our media went to sleep without finding out the results of the last 4

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 13, 2011 12:21 AM EST reply actions  

We tendered everyone

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 13, 2011 12:29 AM EST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about our heroic azure-tinged corvidae, the Toronto Blue Jays.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Hal2_small
Quantifying the Effect of Team Defense on Over/Underperforming the Team's FIP
Small
Brett Lawrie's historic defensive prowess

Recent FanPosts

Small
Blue Jays Player Stats Multiplied by 4
Small
Petition to change Suckage Award Titles
Jaysfanimage_small
The Lansing 4: What to do when they outpitch expectations?
Misc_003_small
Jays' All-Star Alliterative Name Team
Kingkelly_small
Stats tools?
Small
Jays Future Closer?
N41306733_31278203_7401_steve_golfin_small
my MLB power ranking, May Edition
Jaysfanimage_small
Blue Jays Farm Report - Apr 29-May 5

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Yahoo_full_count

Managers

Bluejayperched_small hugo

Rincewind-1_small Tom Dakers

Assistant Manager

Smith_up_small JohnnyG

Authors

Hiro_small jessef

Profile_small masterkembo

Profiel_small Woodman663

Minorleaguer_small Minor Leaguer

Tony_fernandez_small TonyFernandezSavedMyLife

Moderators

J_bau_small jays182

Aejfuulciaar18g_small Bowling_Guy25