Bluebird Bantering: Recapping Monday
by Tom Dakers on Dec 13, 2011 10:56 AM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
Email
PrintThe Jays had a pretty busy Monday.
There was the Ben Francisco trade. Not that we gave up all that much, though Frank Gailey has been kind of a favorite of mine, he's had success each of his 5 seasons in our system, minor league relievers are rarely prospects and at 25 he just made Double-A last year, but Francisco is incredibly average. We have, roughly, a dozen guys that could play in the outfield and we trade for an incredibly average 30 year old?
Alex said that that plan, at the moment, is to have Ben and Rajai Davis on the bench. Our outfield looks to have 2 left-handed hitters, so they could platoon a bit and maybe we can rest Lind against most lefty pitchers. I have a hard time believing that there isn't another move on its way.
Alex said that the plan is to have a four player bench with Davis, Francisco, Mathis and either Mike McCoy or Luis Valbuena being the likely members. Since McCoy can play outfield too, I don't see why you would want half your bench to be guys that can only play outfield. And the Jays have made a point of telling us that Edwin Encarnacion and Kelly Johnson could play outfield. You'd think there has to be moves on the way.
We also picked up 6'6" right-handed pitcher Jim Hoey off waivers from the Twins. He can take Jon Rauch's spot as 'scary guy that can throw the manager around'. Really he is just a tiny improvement to the 40-roster. There will be more moves like that before spring training starts.
In unsurprising news, we didn't non-tender anyone. Jesse Litsch ($975,000), Dustin McGowan ($600,000) and Jeff Mathis ($1,500,000) all signed one year contracts. Brandon Morrow, Casey Janssen, Kelly Johnson, Colby Rasmus and Ben Francisco will all either be signed or go to arbitration.
The Jays completed the Colby Rasmus trade by sending money to the Cardinals, so no more players will be involved.
And the Jays' Winter Tour is heading east this year after coming out west last year. As much as I'd like to see them here again, it is good that they are going to different places.
51 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I actually doubt there are any moves on the way
I think Thames and Snider battle for the LF spot in Spring Training. The winner gets the LF spot and the loser goes to AAA (Snider is still young enough to be in the minors and I believe still has an option year left, it doesn’t kill Thames either if he goes back to AAA). If an injury occurs to the starter, you have insurance. Francisco platoons with the winner and takes at-bats when the Jays face a lefty or can DH against lefties if EE plays 1B and Lind sits. Davis probably gets a few starts against tough lefties to spell Rasmus and is a pinchrunner for late innings.
You only need one backup IF if he can play SS, 2B, and 3B and McCoy and Valbuena both fit the bill. Again the winner gets the backup IF job and the loser goes to AAA as insurance. Mathis is the backup catcher.
Lind is the 1B and EE is the DH against righties.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I see a move for a starting pitcher in my tea leaves
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
I forgot that bit, Teahen is gone under this scenario
I didn’t think the Jays were keeping him anyway. They took him on as salary relief for the ChiSox.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I really really really don't want to see Snider get optioned again
assume we’re not competing (ie, don’t sign a big FA or two) we absolutely need to find out what we have in Snider (ie, was 2010 a fluke? – I doubt it). I’d rather not see Thames in AAA, but at least he can work on his defense down there. Snider hasn’t had anything to prove in AAA for three years. I really don’t think he has anything to gain from the Minors, and if he can’t cut it in the Majors this year we’ll have to seriously re-evaluate
He's only 24 next year, another year in the minors won't kill him
He’s still one of the youngest guys on the team. You shouldn’t have a problem with being sent back to the minors when the other guys are older and producing better. If Snider kills it in ST, he’ll be with the Jays. At some point, you have to earn your spot.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Also, it's not like Thames is a non-prospect either
If Thames had been healthy in college, he was projected to go at least in the supplemental portion of the 1st round of the draft. He’s shown good numbers in the minors and has worked hard to get where he is. Personally, I like Snider better as a prospect but Thames deserves a shot too.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
no, I know
but Snider’s just pummeled the Minors every time he’s gone down. he wOBA’d almost .400 in AAA in 2011… and that’s the worst season he’s ever had there. I just think Thames would benefit more from the AAA environment (I don’t think defense would be too different from AAA to MLB) than Snider would. that’s just opinion of course, so feel free to disagree
Next year may just be temporary anyway
EE is a free agent after next year and that opens up the DH spot. Snider and Thames may both be in the starting lineup come 2013.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
that would be great
but I’m not sure either bat would play at DH, barring a quantum leap forward in hitting by either one. Snider’s corner OF defense is quite valuable and Thames’ plate discipline/contact rates – again, barring a not-impossible big improvement – will not likely be good enough to be a valuable DH. but that’s certainly something we will have to wait and see
You know who disagrees with you?
John Farrell. He said Thames was “one of the most professional hitters i have ever seen” when he first came up with the Jays in 2011. Not the kind of remark you make about smoeone who can’t necessarily swing the wood.
I see big things from either Snider or Thames or both if they are in Toronto to start the season. Time will tell but, i am expecting big things…
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Dec 13, 2011 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
Thames had a pretty good rookie year,
So i’m not sure what someone has to do to impress you but by any measure i could think of i would call Thames first season a success.
Feel free to disagree, but i don’t think you were accurate when you downgrade Thames bat – he can hit and i think he will show more promise in 2012. And by “downgrade” i am referring to your suggestion that Thames would need a “quantum leap forward” to be considered a good enough hitter to DH ever…
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Dec 13, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
But it's entirely accurate
Was last year’s production good enough to be a passable DH? No.
Therefore it would require significant improvement at some point in time. Don’t see the issue here.
well, how about this
let’s define “good” for a position as 5 points of wRC+ above the median for that position. Eric Thames had a 108 wRC+ in 2011. the median wRC+ for qualified DHs was 120 wRC+ in 2011. that means Thames needs to be able to increase his wRC+ by 17 points in order to be a good DH (and that’s in a year with very low offense). that’s approximately the difference between Justin Upton and Howie Kendrick.
OK
But it was his FIRST season playing in the Majors.
Are we not expecting him to vastly improve or are we suspecting the sophomore slump to hit him?
Kind of moot because i don’t envision Thames being DH but i did think it was kind of rating his potential skills a little low. I think he is going to improve and we should see some solid skills from him next year.
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Dec 13, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
I can see him improving
I can’t see him improving that much. especially given that his contact rates are mediocre and his plate discipline is poor.
Fair enough
but i hope you’re wrong. But to be honest, i think we will get solid production from either Snider or Thames next year, i think both may be up for big years… That is me thinking positively…
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Dec 13, 2011 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
I would be thrilled if Thames turns into a great hitter
but that doesn’t mean I think it’s going to happen
and I should add
I also don’t want the Blue Jays banking on Thames turning into a great hitter in terms of constructing the team, unless of course they know something I don’t
eh?
Snider had everything to prove in AAA in 2010. Everything meaning he had to show he could hit balls hard using solid hitting technique.
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
...right
that’s why he had a 24.3 LD% and 18.4% HR/FB (while dealing with an injured wrist, no less). sorry, don’t see it
no
but the hitting coaches did, and that’s what matters.
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
also
I don’t know where you’re getting those stats from?
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
only now do I see that I mistyped 2010
I meant 2011, sorry.
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
Snider really didn't do that well in AAA last year
126 wRC+ in Vegas a bit better than Loewen (117), and a bit worse than Dewayne Wise (128). For comparison, Thames had a 150, Lawrie a 166, and Cooper a 142. Don’t get me wrong, I would much rather see Snider in left field next year than Thames, but if he continues to struggle then I would have no problem with him starting the year in the AAA so he can prove himself once again.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Dec 13, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
Sinder
His value metrics are headed in the wrong direction. Is this a coaching issue or attitude? (he did handle the demotion much better the 2nd time around though) – he represents a turnaround project – certainly not a trade option (we’d be moving him at the bottom of his curve right now)
by Paul Chicago on Dec 13, 2011 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
We’d be moving him at the bottom of his curve right now
.
Not necessarily, at all. Let’s just simplify the analysis and assume Snider can end up as one of three outcomes:
A – a star type masher who is above average player year in and year out
B – an averageish OF, a useful player but not an ideal first division starter
C – a washout, never realizes his potential.
Now, we hope he ends up as A, and if this is the Jays evaluation, certainly trading him now is seeling low. If he ends up as B, then trading him you could probably get fair value, since some teams undoubtedly see him as possible of A, and will give up value (then the outcome of the trade hinges on how he turns out versus the evaluation). However, if the ultimately outcome is C, then his perceived value is way above his actual value, and you should trade him, because any value you salvage is better than the no value he’s actually worth.
Again, this is simplistic, because players don’t actually have “outcomes”, but the point is, if the Jays (with much more information) are much lower on him, trading him makes sense. He doesn’t have nearly as much value now as he did 2 or 3 years ago, but his perceived value may actually be higher than what his ultimate value is.
yeah
but the difference between his value now and his value in outcome C is wayyyy smaller than the difference between his value now and his value in outcome A. so much so that it probably outweighs the smaller likelihood that he becomes a star vs. a washout
the thing is
Snider is the type of player AA trades for…under-performing high ceiling guy.
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
by T.Dot_Bronco on Dec 13, 2011 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
Sure
But the Jays have more information on Snider than anyone else, and of course any professional team has more information than us fans. If the Jays have soured on him, then they may not believe in a high ceiling any more.
Again, I’m not necessarily saying this is the case, all I’m saying is that it’s not correct to assume that trading Snider now would mean selling at a low point – if he ends up never contributing much, his value will yet go lower. This is where scouting and player evaluation come in.
but as of right now
we haven’t sold on him with the best information. that would presumably be a vote of confidence for Snider
Neither do I want to see him optioned either, however...
If he is unable to beat out Thames, I think you have to start reconsidering him as top prospect. He has the tools, but he’s now been unable to put it all together now for three seasons (and not completely all his fault either).
He’s had flashes but he definitely regressed badly last year. I think I was disappointed in how he could not retain his new batting approach when he was recalled.
I’m not calling for the trade of Snider because it is too soon to abandon him, but if he fails to beat out Thames, he definitely needs plenty of ABs to figure things out, and the only place in the Jays organization will be in AAA.
yes, after this season he will definitely have to be re-evaluated
either as the good young player we all envisioned, or as (maybe) a AAAA guy. and I understand if he gets beat out by Thames, but as I said above, if it’s close (ie, not something like Snider hitting .200/.250/.350 and Thames hitting .350/.400/.600 in Spring Training) I think the nod needs to go to Snider so we can truly try to see what we have in him.
I agree with your conclusion
But I think the nod needs to go to Snider because his defense is so much better that if they are comparable at the plate, Snider is much more valuable to the team.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Dec 13, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
Snider can't be sent down
Snider doesn’t have any options left so this is his last chance. Thames would need to be significantly better Snider to get the starting role.
not true
his Minors stint in 2010 was for rehab, so it doesn’t count as using an option. he has one more option year.
Benk is correct
I asked the same question as hoodlum in a different post. Looked it up and Snider has 1 more option. But I really want to see him stick.
As much as I like Thames as well; if we can trade him for something that can help us now (package for a 2 or 3 SP) then that is the route I would like to take.
I would also like to see Rajai on the squad for a pinch runner, defensive help. But is it possible Rajai could see his way on the DL to start the year? Is he fully recovered yet?
Darvish
I read on mlbtr that his posting period ends tomorrow? Does that mean we’ll know who the successful bidder is tomorrow?
It took a few days to figure out the last guy
but Darvish has much more hype, i’d assume we would know no later then thursday
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 13, 2011 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bluebird Banter
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Giancarlo Stanton busts Marlins Park scoreboard with tape-measure grand slam (VIDEO)
- Baltimore’s tradition of fans shouting ‘O!’ during national anthem sparks interleague feud
- Chris Perez follows rant against Cleveland fans with even better rant against Cleveland fans
- Pitcher Clayton Richard gets key pinch single in 13th after coming in 0 for 16
- Livan Hernandez welcomes ball boy to the bigs with shower of sunflower seeds (VIDEO)
