Bluebird Bantering: Rumor of the Day
by Tom Dakers on Dec 14, 2011 10:50 AM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Rumors
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PrintToday's rumor comes from Scott Miller, of CBSSports.com, who tells us the Jays are one of 5 teams that is 'in on' Carlos Beltran, because, as you all know, you can never have too many outfielders. I don't see it at all. Beltran is a good player and he has that 'big bat' that Alex has been talking about, but he is 34 (35 in April) and doesn't really fit with the 'eye on the future' style that Alex has been employing since taking the GM job.
But then, he gets on base, his OBP the last three seasons: .415, .341 and .385. It wouldn't be a bad thing to have a guy that gets on like that batting in front of Jose Bautista. Let him bat 3rd and move Jose to cleanup. It would be that 'win now' move that some Jay fans have been pushing Alex to do. He could DH or play LF, letting the team platoon Lind and Encarnacion at first base. Or it might give Alex enough depth in the outfield to make some trades.
I still don't see it happening.
Other stuff:
- John Axford and Joey Votto get to share the Tip O'Neill award for top Canadian baseball player.
- Bids for the right to negotiate with Yu Darvish have to be submitted by 5:00 Eastern time today. That doesn't mean we'll know who submitted the winning bid today. We might not know who won for another 4 days.
- Jeff Sullivan, at SB Baseball Nation, asks where is Prince Fielder going to go? The Jays:
Maybe! The Blue Jays have been considered a Fielder possibility from the get-go, although they are extremely reluctant to give long-term contracts.
But I like his Orioles answer better:
Maybe! The Orioles are always a maybe, until they are a no.
- Grant Brisbee, also from Baseball Nation, shares '10 Surprising Facts' from Scott Boras' binder on Prince Fielder.
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Another rumour
For what it’s worth…
Something called MetsBlog.com – a writer named Matthew Cerone – says that he’s heard talks of Jon Niese for Travis d’Arnaud and another pitcher from the Jays. It sounds like absolute bull, but it’s out there. Mets fans seem excited.
It's not like they have much to be excited about this season
Unless it’s concerning the (horrible) financial state of the team.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 14, 2011 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t think I’d give up TDA straight up for Niese. Let alone “another pitcher”. Sounds like a wishful thinking Mets fan.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
by Jevant on Dec 14, 2011 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Fragile. Older. Doesn't make sense
Unless it is Boras trying to throw crap against the wall and hoping something sticks.
Beltran is a very good player, but how many outfielders do the Jays need?
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 14, 2011 10:54 AM EST reply actions
Like with most of the other rumours
AA will seemingly kick the tires on everyone… but if we hear something, chances are it’s not going to happen.
This seems to be perpetuated...
That if we “hear” about a trade, it likely means that AA won’t be doing it.
I wonder… does anyone have any contrary evidence? That is, was there a trade that we heard rumors about before it happened?
"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman
by Jeremiah Stanghini on Dec 14, 2011 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
I thought about Halladay...
But my own counter-argument to using that as evidence was that we all knew that Halladay was going to be traded. Then, the counterpoint to that is we weren’t sure WHICH team would get him (if I remember).
On Rasmus — I was traveling at the time, so wasn’t able to keep up on the rumor mill, so I’ll take your word on him.
"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman
by Jeremiah Stanghini on Dec 14, 2011 10:37 PM EST up reply actions
You have a point with Halladay
RE: Rasmus, there weren’t really rumours as it happened, but everyone knew the Cards needed pitching and that they like E. Jackson. When the Jays traded for Jackson, I think a lot of people were expecting him (+ prospects) to be flipped for Rasmus.
Also, there were rumours from 2010 about how the Jays liked Rasmus.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Nice John Buck Hero story
Being experienced dealing with crashes at home plate may have helped Buck and fellow heros in this car accident rescue story. Good work John!
I heard Buck interviewed on MLB Radio last night
he said all the right things about not really being a hero and that others deserve the praise more than he does….
I blog, therefore I am.
My Spidey-sense is tingling… I think it’s going to come down to the Red Sox and Blue Jays in the bid for Darvish. The Sox’ new manager, Valentine, apparently loves Darvish, thinks he’s the best pitcher he’s ever seen, period. He’ll make a strong push to the new Boston management to go get him. As for the Jays, I just have a feeling that AA thinks so highly of him (took trips to Japan to see him) that he’ll take the risk and bid high.
I think we’re seriously in it for Fielder as well. His young age and AA’s likely desire to not waste Bautista in his prime make me think we might hear AA in a press conference saying, “As a rule we’re not keen on going the free agent route with contracts such as this, but Prince’s talent, his age, his durability and his character made us believe that in this rare case, the player will be worth it.”
So that’s my Spidey-sense, for what it’s worth.. which ain’t much, since I’ve never been bitten by a radioactive spider. Maybe that’s what Ryan Braun is now arguing for himself. :p
The Red Sox are fearful of the luxury tax and not really in a position to make a huge pitch for Yu
I’d have to say the Yanks. They really do need another decent pitcher and there’s not much left outside of Edwin Jackson.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 14, 2011 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Can’t argue with that. Besides, Sox management may also be leery of fan backlash if Yu becomes another Daisuke.
by Blue Feathers on Dec 14, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
Actually
This is precisely the reason why Yu is more attractive for teams worried about the Luxury tax. If we look at Daisuke as an example, we see that his 6 year $103 million total cost to the Red Sox helped them pay less luxury tax over the years.
Since $51 million was in posting fees, and the Red Sox were over the luxury tax threshold for every year Daisuke has pitched, the Sox have saved money by paying up front.
This is why I think the Yankees will win Yu.
1) They can incur the initial cost.
2) They will get a $100 million + arm in their rotation and be taxed at a lower rate.
3) Massive holes in their starting rotation.
So yes Blue Feathers, we can argue DBS’ point.
.313/.400/.565
Good point
Just a minor point – the posting fees don’t count towards the luxury tax at all, I’m not sure from the comment if this is what you mean, so it might just be a clarification. The Red Sox indeed saved money against the luxury tax by getting Dice-K through the posting system versus a free agent at the same money.
I still don’t see the Red Sox getting involved, but it would make a lot of sense for the Yankees
Yep, it is what I meant
And agreed on the Sox.
I think AA is just too rational to win a blind auction (not a bad thing), and the value for the Yankees is undeniable.
.313/.400/.565
Beltran
I kinda like this idea, actually. Good OBP guy (which is necessary), a lot cheaper than Fielder. Would allow the trade of Snider/Thames for pitching help. Switch hitter.
Depends on the money (as it always does), but something like a $20m/2yr with some sort of option for a 3rd year seems like something that could be reasonable.
Of course, someone who misses out on Fielder will probably go and give him a $30m/2yr contract, so I doubt it will happen, but in theory, I kinda like the idea.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Beltran
Is a borderline Hall of Famer (with a few more decent years). In some ways, I’d like him more than Fielder, assuming he doesn’t cost nearly as much.
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
yeah, me neither
but in the 2001-2008 period he had 7 years of 5 WAR or more, and one down year of 2.7 WAR. That’s one heck of a peak. It’s also worth noting that fWAR might underrate him: DRS likes Beltran’s fielding a whole lot more than UZR. Same with TZL.
If I was in charge, I’d include him in the Hall of Fame. I’d be looking for awesome players, not players who were good and lucky enough to avoid injury.
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
Ring or bust?
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Campionship rings seem to be the necessity for HOF induction. Not that this is teh correct way to go about it.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Jim Rice
was a borderline HoF player who never sniffed a WS and got in fairly handily. Ditto Andre Dawson. Bonds would have been a shoo-in without the PEDs and he only made the WS once (lost to Angels in 2002), as would McGwire. Robin Yount was a no doubter who played in one WS (1982 Brewers lost to St Louis). Tony Gwynn, Ernie Banks, Ted Williams, Carl Yazstremski.
Im there are tons of other examples. These are just ones that came to my head in the 2 minutes I spent thinking about it.
sorry, McGwire did win a WS
but the other guys didn’t
So according to the way you put it,
Bonds, Yount, and Yaz never sniffed a WS either, or did you forget Rice was around for the ’75 WS.
That's actually how the HOF is supposed to work
Some guys like Sandy Koufax who were dominant for short stretches are in the HOF, despite injuries cutting their careers short.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
there is no way it's "supposed" to work
the criteria are not highly specific. you’re right, though, that there tend to be two types of players: peak players (Koufax) who were ridiculous during their best years, and longevity years who had very long, solid careers (and then the amazing players like Bonds have both).
What I mean is it supposed to be the best players for the time they played
Sometimes, the voters get it right and put in dominant guys like Koufax
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Maybe a modified objective test is needed
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
are there very many peak players in the Hall?
Everyone always points to Koufax, but I am at a loss to think of another example of a brilliant, short career that made the HoF. Could be because Koufax’s streak was so ridiculously good, but I can’t really think of other examples to demonstrate the existence of the “peak player” as a HoF archetype.
Maybe Griffey counts too before he fell off the cliff after his first year in Cincinnati.
There's a few, mostly pitchers
Addie Joss only played 8 seasons, Dizzy Dean played 12 seasons like Koufax. I think some of the Negro League players had short baseball careers too.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Read somewhere recently (cant find it right now)
That is Beltran puts up another 9 WAR in his career, he will end up as the 6th best CF of all time by WAR behind only (again, not sure if Im remembering correctly) Mays, Mantle, Dimaggio, Speaker, and Cobb. Thats pretty ridiculous.
whoa, that's pretty elite company
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Does the Japanese team have to accept the highest bid or can they accept whichever team they want?
Toronto Maple Leafs: All about the Lemon Grabs
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If I was the Japanese team
I would accept the highest bid. However, I read somewhere here or on the Drunks; that perhaps a side deal between Yu and his team could be made where Yu asks them to accept the bid of the team he wants to go to.
No it is the highest bid.
The bids go to the commissioner’s office, the Japanese team only sees the winning bid.
I blog, therefore I am.
Apparently, the BoSox found their "closer."
Traded Jeb Lowrie and Weiland (not Scott) for Marc Melancon.
Makes me appreciate AA’s under the radar deals and no wonder the BoSox were upset (apparently Bard is going into the Starting Rotation!)
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 14, 2011 11:54 AM EST reply actions
That seems pretty decent for both sides. Definitely like the upside Houston is acquiring…might as well sell high on Melancon and get a possible starting SS with pop.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Seems a little high priced for the Sox to me
But then again, Lowrie is always hurt and Weiland looked terrible last year.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I really like the idea of Beltran
If it happens, I think it signals the exit for both Snider and Thames in a package for either Gio or Garza.
by Matthew Mueller on Dec 14, 2011 12:43 PM EST reply actions
Potentially
Thames could see time at both LF and DH
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
That said
I don’t believe the Beltran rumours. Just another edition of the Jays being linked with every single free agent.
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
I just don't think there will be any playing time
Beltran is a switch hitter so there is no platoon advantage platooning him with Beltran and I think either Francisco, Rajai, Johnson, or EE could give Beltran a breather once in a while. If you look at Oakland they could use OF help bad so they don’t have Ryan Sweeney manning all OF positions.
Like you said, the move probably doesn’t happen, but if it does I think they both have to be moved, whether sent down or shipped out.
by Matthew Mueller on Dec 14, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
Why get Francisco if you're in on Beltran?
I understand Francisco would by no means block Beltran in any way, shape, or form, it just seems to me it wouldn’t make any sense.
It would be like trading for Overbay, then signing Fielder. :)
.313/.400/.565
but you could then just trade Francisco
or DFA him. He’s not expensive.
Or you could just have waited to see if you got Beltran or not,
then have pulled the trigger on the deal if you didn’t. It would be far more logical.
.313/.400/.565
Ben Francisco takes up a roster spot
And will earn more than $1.1 millon this next year. That costs us a spot on the team and very likely some dollars if we DFA him…
.313/.400/.565
yes
but it buys you insurance in case you don’t get Beltran at an acceptable price. It’s similar to acquiring Rajai Davis last year when, it was speculated, AA was also trying to land Rasmus. Having a reasonable insurance plan prevent you from needing to overspend to land your desired player and doesnt leave the team in a huge hole if you are unexpectedly beaten out for your first choice’s services
No it's completely different
Davis started the year with the team. Rasmus was traded for in July.
These moves will end up being like a week a part in the off season. It’s not like Francisco fills a “huge hole” or anything like what you are saying, and their are plenty of players of his ilk that can be had a extremely reasonable prices.
It makes zero sense to add Francisco (A replacement level player pretty much), then sign Beltran. Trading for Ben signals that there is an extremely low chance we are in on Beltran.
.313/.400/.565
OT
But has anyone been to baseballplayersalaries.com?
It calculates the percentage of team payroll and the contribution to the team they make (I don’t know how I just found it) Then it spits out an opinion on the player based on this info.
So it’ll say things like:
Jose Bautista is very valuable. Or, Adam Lind is overpaid. Or, my favourite, Ben Francisco is a bum.
Another one I liked was “JP Arencibia is a total stud,” but I’m guessing that wasn’t based on baseball performance…
.313/.400/.565
Aaron Hill
For Toronto: A bum
For Arizona: Very Valuable
Haha
.313/.400/.565
Seen it
It’s very, very simplistic because it doesn’t account for the bifurcated market for baseball players – the difference between controlled players and played who were free agents when they signed.
Ya its not really a baseball site I don't think..
At least not a very good one. Gave me a laugh though!
.313/.400/.565
Hong-Chih Kuo
He seems like a guy that could be a cheap guy to get with huge upside if his elbow comes back strong. Could be that ace lefty in the pen the Jays could use. Was non-tendered by the Dodgers.
I'm surprised Axford tied Votto for the Tip O'Neill award.
He had a great year, but he’s a reliever, for heaven’s sake!
by Defense Counts! on Dec 14, 2011 7:36 PM EST reply actions
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