BBB Community #14 Overall Prospect - Adonys Cardona Vs. David Cooper
by Pikachu on Dec 15, 2011 10:19 PM EST
Email
PrintResults:
Adonys Cardona - 39.3%
Carlos Perez - 60.7%
Adonys Cardona - SP (Age 17) Throws:Right
2011: Class Rk - 31.2 IP 4.55 ERA 9.9 K/9 3.4 BB/9 0.6 HR/9 8.8 H/9
Pre-2011: BBB#20 2011: Sickels #13
David Cooper - 1B (Age 24) Bats: Left Throws: Left
2010: Class AA - 553 PA .257/.327/.442 110 wRC+ 9.4 BB% 13.4 K%
2011: Class AAA - 545 PA .364/.439/.535 142 wRC+ 12.3 BB% 7.9 K%
MLB: 81 PA .211/.284/.394 82 wRC+ 8.6 BB% 17.3 K%
List:
1. Travis d'Arnaud - 90.6%
2. Anthony Gose - 65.9%
3. Drew Hutchison - 56.7%
4. Jake Marisnick - 97%
5. Noah Syndergaard - 74.4%
6. Nestor Molina - 75.8%
7. Deck McGuire - 65.7%
8. Justin Nicolino - 55.0%
9. Adeiny Hechavarria - 75%
10. Daniel Norris - 87.9%
11. AJ Jimenez - 55.3%
12. Aaron Sanchez - 79.3%
13. Carlos Perez - 60.7%
Use Rec's to vote and place all comments in the comment area.
Finish whenever.
130 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
One year from now
This will likely be a much different dynamic, either one way or the other, but right now you really, really have to drean on Cardona or really hate Coper not to go with him
Sure
But the reality is, he’s a 17 year old in the Gulf Coast league, the washout rate is just so high, that like I said, you have to really dream on Cardona.
I'll take Cardona too
I just don’t see Cooper as being valuable in any capacity. He looks like a Lyle Overbay without the Defense and with even less power.
he had an excellent AAA season last year
I’d be surprised if he can’t be a 1 WAR player. the chances of Cardona making the Majors are, like, 25% at best
Exactly
Even though he may not have a great chance to make it at this point, and Cooper may have about a 90% chance to make it but at what capacity? Some bench player? Cardona on the other hand has the potential to be special.
Maybe I'd go as high as 15%
But still I’d much rather have that than90% chance of a AAAA player. Cooper is very nearly a non-prospect in my eyes. Think Brad Emaus, except at below average first base D.
Ask David Cooper that question
“Hey David, as a non-prospect, how did you put up a 142 wRC+ in AAA?”
you know what else
we keep comparing Cooper to Overbay minus defense (or Loney). Cooper had an OPS 50 points higher than Overbay’s, in the same league, at 2 years younger. and UZR doesn’t like Overbay’s defense anyway, so how can you think Cooper can’t be a 1-2 WAR guy right now?
To be fair
Some of most of the that OPS difference can be explained away by Las Vegas being a better hitter’s park than Tucson.
But the rest stands – I’d like to see Cooper get some MLB opportunity this season if he’s not traded (assuming no big acquisition is made).
Better yet: what do you think the chances of Cooper being an above average MLBer are?
5%? Whatever the odds of Bautista’s transformation were?
Above average for how long?
And how are we measuring average – say 2 WAR/600 PAs over something approaching a full season?
Let’s use that definition. I think there’s a much higher than 5% chance that Cooper puts up some seasons like that, at least in his prime. I don’t think he’l do it year in and year out, but I’d argue a James Loney or lighter Lyle Overbay is not of out the question, and that’s a decent player, if not one who sets the world on fire.
I'd say his WAR per season would need to be above average for his career.
It wasn’t “what are the odds he’ll have an above average season”. Plus, I’m not really sure I’d call a 2.1 WAR seaon “above average” although technically it would be. Above average MLBer to me is career WAR/season of 3 (or maybe just for his prime seasons). I just don’t see that being Cooper.
by T_Mizz on Dec 16, 2011 5:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Alright
Essentially this is a utility based argument rather than pure value based argument, which is fine (that is, even if Cooper was a higher expected WAR, Cardona’s upside makes him more valuable). But considering how far away Cardona is, and how close Cooper is, you have to include some sort of present value factor as well. It would seem to me that even under such an approach, you essentially have to attribute almost no utility to Cooper to prefer Cardona.
I’m by no means Cooper’s biggest supporter (paging Mike Andrew!), but I think he’s being overlooked. I hope Cardona ends up a beast, but it’s just way too speculative to me to be putting a 17 year old in the GCL ahead of Cooper
yes, that's how I feel as well
even in Cooper puts up 1 WAR in 2000 career plate appearances, Cardona needs to hit at LEAST his 75th percentile projection to match that. though Cardona has a really cool name
That to me is the issue
There’s no right or wrong here, it’s a matter of how much emphasis you put on floor versus ceiling. There’s no arguing there, barring injury Cooper’s floor is what he is now, a AAAA player but I just don’t see his ceiling being all that much higher than that, average 1B at best. Cardona’s floor is (without injury) probably one of those older minor league BP guys we have in NH and LV, but his ceiling is a number 2 guy on the staff. I’m more into upside in my prospects, personally. Without they’re more like actual depth and less like prospects.
by T_Mizz on Dec 16, 2011 5:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
As of now?
I am pretty sure of that based on his past results. Excellent in AAA, poor in MLB.
Poor in MLB?
He’s had 81 plate appearances. 81! We’re writing guys off as AAAA material after 81 PAs?
You know who else put up around that number of PAs after a call-up? Travis Snider, 803 OPS in 80 Plate appearances in 2008. And we all know that those 80 PAs were a good indicator of what was to come.
Sorry, 81 PAs mean very little.
by MjwW on Dec 16, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
ABC
Anything But Cooper
I really don’t like his upside with the bat, and he’s far from great with the glove or on the base paths either.
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
I think he could be a decent 1B elsewhere, as a James Loney-type of player
Do you think the Dodgers would want him?
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
Actually
When the rumours hit before the WInter Meetings about the Jays shopping him/willing to trade him, I was thinking about who could use him and this exact scenario strcuk me. Non-tender Loney, save $5-million or so and get similar type production.
Cardona's
ceiling is through the roof. My vote. I think Cooper will be a serviceable 1B, but that’s probably his ceiling and he could end up a AAAA player or a bench bat.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 1:52 AM EST reply actions
MCDade is a switchhitter right? i like him over Cooper for 2012
also it was said above that it is tough to place a youngster like Cardona over Cooper just given the different places in their careers.
But, Cardona could certainly blossom into a very decent pitcher for the Jays. Really love the moves we have made in the last 3 years out of latin america.
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Dec 16, 2011 12:47 PM EST reply actions
McDade doesn't take walks
Cooper may be old, but his plate discipline has always been excellent. McDade’s (judging by BB/K) is very poor, something that is a signal of future struggles
There is always the possibillity of the Lawrie-esque turnaround
Obviously, it would require a bigger swing and there’s never been the same type of buzz around him. But still unlikely.
by T_Mizz on Dec 16, 2011 5:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Lawrie-esque turnaround?
Lawrie has always been an excellent prospect. BA prospect rankings:
pre-2009 81st best prospect
pre-2010 59th best prospect
pre-2011 40th best prospect
Yeah that's why I said
“there’s never been the same type of buzz around him”
I just meant that AA would need to say, “walk more” and he’d need to do so.
I wonder if Cooper goes back to AAA next year
They could try to trade Lind and put Cooper in his place. Or give him a platoon role with EE or bat off the bench.
I don’t see it. Looks like he’s going back to AAA to battle it out with McDade.
I think what it all comes down to is
If you’re a GM, do you trade Cooper for Cardona? I personally wouldn’t, but some people might.
by T_Mizz on Dec 16, 2011 9:40 PM EST via mobile reply actions
When you put it that way
I’m inclined to want to agree – for the same reasons I found the utility argument compelling, earlier today. With the caveat that this kinda trade would basically never happen, so it’s basically a thought experiment, but a good one.
Would you pay
$2.8M to keep Cooper? Has Cardona’s value dropped since he signed?
I’d trade 2 Coopers for Cardona because I don’t think Cooper has much of a mlb future. Not much above replacement value anyway.
AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 16, 2011 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
Yes I would
As a GM, would I pay $2.8M to get 6 years of control over David Cooper, at his current prospect status? Yep, especially with the new CBA coming in. Even if he’s nothing more than a AAAA player/bench bat, you probably get your money back in surplus value, and if he’s anything more you make your money back several times over.
Yes
just to compare him to Cardona. Would you give him the same $?
I wouldn’t just because I think Cardona has a better chance of being and mlb pitcher than Cooper does of being above replacement. Cooper also has to somehow make the mlb roster before the team runs out of options. Any idea when that is?
AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 17, 2011 8:35 AM EST up reply actions
Cooper was added to the 40 man last year, then they sent him back down, so he has two more option years.
I wouldn’t just because I think Cardona has a better chance of being [an] mlb pitcher than Cooper does of being above replacement.
That’s a pretty dim view of Cooper, which is fine, but you have to realize there’s probably at least a 50-75% chance Cardona never makes it to the majors, and then even if he does, there’s even less chance he’s an impact player. You’re essentially saying there’s about a 10% chance that Coper is an impact player, and while I’m far from a big believer in Cooper, I’ll ake the other side of that bet everytime.
I understand why you use, but it’s far from a perfect approach due to the difference in their ages. Cardona is a very uncertain thing, basically a lottery card. You pay 2.8M, and in 5 years if he develops he could be worth $30M on the open market (like Aroldis Chapman, for example). And if he doesn’t, your money is gone. Cooper is much more of a sure thing (though not a sure thing at all). But also, Cooper was not acquired as a FA, so we dont know what the free market value of him was 3 years ago, nor do we know it today.
I don't think Cooper
has a 10% chance of being an impact player. I would also say that there is a 50-75% chance that Cooper never makes it to the majors as an everyday player.
AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 17, 2011 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
I agree there’s a substantial chance that he’s no more than a role player, but the point is, this still has value – I mean, a guy like Eric Hinske always finds a job
that's been basically my whole point
yes, Cooper’s absolute ceiling is probably 3 WAR/year (and a small chance of reaching that). but he has a really good chance of being a bench bat/1B platoon kind of thing, which certainly has value if a small amount. if Cardona pans out, that would be fantastic and he’s probably got a good shot of being a very good player if he does. but young pitchers have such a ridiculously high attrition rate that his chance of ever doing anything at all in the Majors is very low
Fun with Paint
For illustrative (not exact) purposes only
by MjwW on Dec 17, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Personally
I’d give Cooper at least some probability of having a 0 peak WAR as well. For Cooper my red line would start at 25-50% somewhere.
AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 17, 2011 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
Keep in mind
That’s average peak WAR (say for 25-31). Given where he is now, there’s almost no chance he’ll ever provide any value. But I know your curve would obviously be lower
I don't disagree with the height of the red
I think it should have more of an arc and start around 25%. There is at least a 25% chance that he never contributes any avg peak WAR. ie: he becomes a replacement level player or he never makes it at all.
AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 17, 2011 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
By height I meant the height in the 0-50% range – sorry, should have been clearer. I suspect that there is a less than 25% he’s a replacement guy, however I have to data on this, and it would be fairly easy to dig up some data. I’m working on another post right now, but maybe later tonight I’ll look into this.
Finally – strictly speaking of course, it’s impossible for him not to make it, as he’s already played at the MLB level (and yes, I’m aware this is semantics)
He has -0.1 WAR now though
so his mlb data to date doesn’t help get his average peak WAR over 0.
AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 17, 2011 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
His MLB career is 81 PAs
Frankly, that’s not a basis on which to to say anything about what his average peak WAR will or won’t be.
For the record, Carlos Delgado had -1.5 WAR after 260 career PAs through the end of 1995 (age 23). He turned out alright if I remember correctly (that was just the first guy I checked, and no, I’m not saying Cooper will be anything close to Delgado
That wasn't what I meant
It was in response to the comment that he had already made it. I didn’t make that clear however.
AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 17, 2011 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
He posted a better AVG/OBP than Lawrie in AAA (Cooper maintained it for 545 PA)
So shouldn’t a little bit of that carry over the the Majors?
In my opinion, Lawrie was hot and Cooper was cold. Some players take better to the Majors than others. Again not saying Cooper will be Lawrie :D
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
Dim view of Cooper
I see him as a C prospect entering his age 25 season in AAA. If we could get a prospect with more potential for him that would be great.
AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 17, 2011 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
but as Sickels always notes
C-type prospects vary a lot depending on level – a C prospect (which is not what I would classify Cooper as – I’d lean towards C+) at a high level can be a very useful role player, and a C prospect at a low level can have a high ceiling but a tiny chance of reaching it. that’s how I see this comparison
Here is the Sickels quote on C prospects
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 17, 2011 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
but also
A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
which is what I was referring to.
David Cooper
as a possible role player probably wouldn’t accumulate significant average peak WAR.
I’d trade a potential role player for Adonys Cardona.
AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 17, 2011 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
and yes
I’d trade pretty much an infinite number of potential role players for potential stars – that’s exactly what the Jays have been doing in getting guys like Rasmus and Escobar. but that doesn’t at all mean Cardona’s expected production/value is better than Cooper’s – which is, I think, the fairest way to judge prospects
That's not exactly science?
I bet I could find a grade A that flamed out.
I would put Cooper at B- personally just because hes so close to the Majors and did so well in the highest level he played. He has a chance a higher chance to be a replacement level player than a lot of the players in low-A/high-A that have B ratings.
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
I might be overrating him
But its for good reason. Batting title in the PCL is hard, I don’t care if its the PCL. Multiple players have the same hitting environment.
Cooper has shown in a decent sample size he can hit for a higher average than Lawrie. He hit .364 while Lawrie came in at .353. Lawrie had only 329 PA while Cooper maintained his over 545 PA. Yet somehow in his current condition (assuming no improvement) he is a replacement level player? He has shown he can hit for a higher average than Lawrie.
He also showed a better eye and had a higher OBP. Lawrie had a much higher SLG% but remember he had a smaller sample size and Coopers was still a respectable .535. I’ve been watching quite a few of these AAA at bats and I get equally as excited when Lawrie and Cooper come up to bat.
I understand Lawrie is younger and thus has a higher “ceiling” but I’m saying if Lawrie can hit for .293 in the MLB today, so can Cooper. Whatever BA you project for Lawrie next year, Coopers can’t be much further behind, they both hit in the same league against the same pitchers in the same park conditions. Only major difference is Cooper is older.
The only two doubles I’ve seen so far in AAA from Cooper have been fielded by the CF and many of the singles are sharp line drives to either LF or CF (He bats left).
I’m just trying to point out is what he did in AAA is unbelievable and I’m not sure if Lawrie would be able to keep pace if he played another 200 PA (variance). This isn’t supposed to spark a Lawrie vs Cooper debate I’m just trying to point out that Cooper is near that level today, and while Lawrie will come back down to earth and probably reach a higher ceiling in the future, Cooper could have MLB seasons where he hits for .300/.370/.450. Lawrie posted .293/.373/.580 in the MLB and his counterpart in AAA put up a higher average and on base percentage, so the first two numbers (.293/.373) should be attainable for both Cooper and Lawrie. Lawrie will for sure be better but Cooper isn’t like some post who lucked into a 545 PA .364 BA season. It is repeatable.
Again Lawrie fans are going to hate me for this post but don’t. I’m just trying to point out some differences and similarities. This ain’t Lawrie hate, I should also mention in the games I have watched the commentators are all over his defense (about how good it is) and he dazzles on D.
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
I know I'm arguing two sides of this discussion
but there are a few reasons why the comparison to Lawrie doesn’t work.
1. it’s not Lawrie’s “fault” he only had around 300 PAs – and even still, he kept up his production at the MLB level for 150 more PAs, so that’s a moot point
2. Cooper’s OBA was better, point taken
3. Cooper’s AVG may have been better, and with decent SLG, but his ISO is not great. he would have to have outstanding contact ability to be a good hitter for a 1B with such middling power (and I know you have the doubles argument, which I can’t verify either way)
4. Cooper doesn’t have any defensive ability even at an easy position
5. two years from 21 to 23 is a huge, huge difference
so I know it’s weird that I’m arguing for and against Cooper, but it’s not fair to compare him to Lawrie because there are so many differnces. I think Cooper could have a couple Major League average seasons at 1B given the chance, but he’s no future superstar
Okay
1. It’s not his fault but chances are he wouldn’t be able to maintain it. Extreme example but what is more accurate. 100 PA or 1000 PA.
2. YAY
3. I will prove my doubles argument 1 day!
4. Cooper doesn’t have defensive inabilities either. I know you don’t like to use basic statistics but his fielding percentage is decent which is okay. I’ve watched quite a few AAA games now and he by no means stands out either way. Your basing your argument off that 1 game he messed up twice and cost us 2 outs in the Majors.
5. I’m aware, I’m going off current skill level NOT future.
What slash line would you give him? I plugged his numbers into that minor league Equivalency calculator for the heck of it (not for arguments sake) but I got .286/.355/.414. That includes park factor and hitting environment (i believe…) and I think its attainable for Cooper during his prime years. I’d say hes just about a finished product, maybe might see a slight jump in power.
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't base 3. on Majors experience at all
I based it on scouting reports, and even if he’s average at 1B that’s not defensive ability, that’s defensive mediocrity. Lawrie has the ability to be average or better at a substantially more demanding defensive position, which is far more valuable
and yes, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Cooper managed a few years of 750 OPS
Okay well a lot of other people do so forgive me for putting you in that category
Cooper drops the ball like twice and everybody says “Overbay with defense”.
Lawrie I’m still not sold on defensively. Everything I’ve seen even early in his AAA switch to 3B has been promising (Hes sick) but I don’t know I guess I want to see more of him before I take the bad defensive label off him.
.769! It’s .768! and OPS isn’t kind to people who know how to get on base. As long as we have a slugger I’ll gladly trade SLG% for OBP on a 1 for 1 basis (which is essentially how much they are valued when you combine them.)
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
OBA vs. SLG point taken
but it’s not like Cooper is going to be Daric Barton in 2010 in all likelihood (~400 OBA, ~410 SLG) – that’s when the correlation between OPS and run scoring really breaks down. Cooper might be a little more valuable than his OPS would indicate but really not by much.
Either way I bet hes at least
1 WAR in his peak years. I find it hard to believe there isn’t a spot for him in the majors. After Linds terrible season maybe its time to give somebody else a chance.
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
I'm so jealous of the MiLB TV thing.
Thinking about splurging for it next year (and yes, I’m very, very cheap so it is splurging).
Here is a list of recent PCL batting champions:
2010: John Lindsey
2009: John Bowker
2008: Terry Tiffee
2007: Brian Myrow (Geovany Soto 0.001 behind)
2006: James Loney
2005: Rick Short
Not really inspiring in terms of a point in Cooper’s favour
It's actually pretty sick
Except for the fact that AAA Vegas has 1 camera angle. So home games typically stink to a degree. Many of the away games are sick. I would recommend it. Just watch your usage otherwise you’ll be making a nice sized donation to your internet provider. I’m going to have trouble balancing NBA League Pass with MiLB.TV. I’m pretty sure its like 5 gigs a game or something crazy… I should really check.
That hurts Cooper :(. But at least they probably got a chance to play at least a full season of Major League ball right?
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
Haha not a chance
I find them equally as entertaining for what it’s worth. Jays farm teams are fun to watch.
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
Question about it
For the 2011 games, can you see the Gameday data (like balls and strikes for each batter, and where they were in the strike zone)?
This is what I’m talking about, except it’s for Fall League and doesnt show where the balls are in the zone anymore
Answer is either no
Or I don’t know how to access it.
About equal chance at both.
MiLB presents Gameday Audio as a FREE service to baseball fans everywhere.
Please note that Gameday Audio links will only be active when games are in progress.
Tune in to the 2012 season starting in April.
I only see game day Audio. Some games don’t have commentators I believe. (either that or I broke my computer, but vast majority do). Some parks also only have 1 angle, which covers the whole field.
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
I think MLB refers to it as At Bat actually – can you try that? Sorry if it’s a hassle, I’m looking into a study on Anthony based on some research I read, but I need ball/strike/zone data which I thought would exist, but I can’t find it publicall after all, but I figure they may offer it to premium subscribers.
Anthony Gos that is (and I realize he didn’t play Triple A, but some AA parks have the set-up to be MLB At Bat)
I checked and still couldn't find :(
MiLB.TV is very basic. It consist of a calender to find the games and a small window (which can be expanded to fullscreen) with a volume knob and you can click and drag to fast forward.
If any of this stuff exist I can’t find it :/
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 11:36 PM EST up reply actions
B-R was more years than MiLB (age)
2004: Larry Sutton – 34 (Casey Kotchman 0.001 behind – 21)
2003: Bubba Crosby (26)
2002: Rick Short (29 – mulitple champ!)
2001: Esteban Herman (25)
2000: Jalal Leach (31). Torii Hunter second
1999: Mark Quinn (25)
1998: Jeremy Giambi – 23 (Adam Riggs 0.001 behind, 25)
1997: Eddie Williams (32)
1996: Andy Sheets (24)
1995: Quinton McCracken (24)
Not going to pre-1994 strike. I think the point is clear
But could they not walk?
What am I missing.
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
But does that mean success is the minors
means nothing?
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
no
because most guys who are great at hitting in the Minors and go on to be good in the Majors are at least one of the following: 1) very young (Cooper is neither young nor old) and 2) force their way onto the team and don’t qualify for the title. Cooper is neither
#2 especially
It’s the critical point. There’s a bias in the data, but it’s there for a very good reason
JPA was 24 when he entered the Majors right?
And he had success in AAA?
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
But he will lose us twice that defensively...
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
Well he was like 30 runs under Mathis in pitch framing
So yes.
by Mike Andrew on Dec 17, 2011 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
As a rookie
thoughso he should improve a bit.
I think at least some of the pitch framing skill isn’t a skill at all. Rather umpires give more calls to veteran catchers. It is similar to the way veteran hitters used to get (still do?) a smaller strike zone.
AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 17, 2011 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
I think it will improve but not a lot
Buster Posey and Matt Wieters are on the 2010 top 10 list. Old catchers have some terrible ratings.
by Mike Andrew on Dec 18, 2011 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
Mathis is a plus framer though
I’d be really surprised if Arencibia was more than, say, 10 to 15 below MLB average in framing
I know
but BtB says he was 8.3 runs below average with other metrics, so in total, I think he could be 20 runs below
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
hm?
I’m only looking at the BtB catcher ratings and Fast’s research on framing. Not sure how there’s double couting.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Maybe I'm just too much of a contrarian
I mean, I’ve going round and round with others on David Cooper about how I really don’t think he’s great, and now I’m kinda defending him!
Obviously, I’m a little higher on him than you are, and as I’ve said before, that’s fine, both views are defensible. But I mean, I think there’s some non-zero chance he can hit enough to start in the bigs, at least for a couple years. Remember, he was a first round pick, and while he had a few disappointing years in 2009-mid 2010, I think it’s premature to write him off. But we’ll see
I found studying economics did this to me
I’m incapable of arguing one side of an argument. I’m such a flip flopper
I feel similarly
Though I don’t have as extensive a background, I find it very difficult to think in absolutes
It is possible he can start in the big leagues at some point. I don’t like his chances of either doing it with the Jays or contributing very much above replacement value.
AA - Sign Darvish, Cespedes, AND Jorge Soler
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 17, 2011 7:46 PM EST up reply actions
I like Cooper a lot and whether its in a Jays uniform or another
I think he will have a much more successful career than most people think. He is ready for the majors and proved all he can in AAA.
Only time will tell but I think he can maintain a slash line of around .280/.360/.450 in his prime. Just opinion, nothing really factual. He hits a lot of 400+ foot doubles in AAA.
I’ve been waiting for you! I’ve had the burden (or at least been sharing it, principally with benk) of defending Cooper here, and that’s kind of a ll tall order since I’m not his strongest advocate!
Reinforcements are here
I have MiLB TV, I’m considering doing a little project and making a Cooper doubles spray chart to show he DOES have power.
So far the only game I saw that Cooper hit a double, it was 400+ feet to CF. 1/1, I feel like checking up on the other 50 doubles. I can say with confidence he easily has the best eye on the team.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bluebird Banter
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Giancarlo Stanton busts Marlins Park scoreboard with tape-measure grand slam (VIDEO)
- Baltimore’s tradition of fans shouting ‘O!’ during national anthem sparks interleague feud
- Chris Perez follows rant against Cleveland fans with even better rant against Cleveland fans
- Pitcher Clayton Richard gets key pinch single in 13th after coming in 0 for 16
- Livan Hernandez welcomes ball boy to the bigs with shower of sunflower seeds (VIDEO)
