Reds get Latos...How this could affect the Jays

by cjcl590 on Dec 18, 2011 1:16 AM EST

A lot of you ragged on my idea the other day that stated the Jays should make a play for Joey Votto. The conventional thinking was that the Reds had Yonder Alonso to play 1B and that they could not afford Joey Votto in 2014 when he hits free agency. Today the Reds traded Alonso to San Diego in what I think is a classic win-win deal for both teams. Alonso hits to all fields and has good walk ratios (11.0%BB rates). He should fit in well at Petco. I question whether the Jays could have done better than what the Reds offered for Latos. If you substitute David Cooper for Alonso (yes Cooper's Triple A numbers are jacked up by playing in the hitter friendly PCL, but he is a better fielder), Carlos Perez or AJ Jimenez for Grandal, Brett Cecil for Volquez (Cecil is controlled longer, but Volquez does have a higher upside) and Kyle Drabek for Brad Boxberger, I think you get a similar deal. I wonder if the Jays thought Latos was not durable enough (he's only averaged 3000 pitches/year over the last two years) but his K ratios was 24.2% over the last two years. I think if you add another pitching prospect the Jays could have offered a better deal for a guy who is only 24 and controllable for the next four years

The Reds now have another pitcher to add to their rotation but still need a LF and a closer. I think the opportunity to trade Votto is even greater now for the Jays. Adam Lind while posting an OBA for .309 and .315 the last few seasons still provide decent power at 1B with a very good contract that provides stability for a small market franchise like the Jays. A high upside LF like Travis Snider could thrive in a good hitting ballpark like Great American Ballpark. The Reds could find an arm like Kyle Drabek attractive since he's a power pitcher who could find himself in another market and survive in a hitters' park because of his raw stuff. But you'd need more to get Votto from the Reds who would take a big PR hit with such a move.

So why not add Yunel Escobar to this deal. Paul Janish at SS had a .521OPS, while Yunel was .782. A package of two (potentially three) controllable starters for the 4 years and a young pitcher who could be an impact starter d for a guy who realistically is gone in two years might be hard for the Reds to pass up.

For the Jays, if Hechavarria's glove is indeed Major League ready (according to many scouts it is), the Jays could get by with solid defence and limited hitting at SS if Votto comes close to his 6.9 WAR in 2011. Plus it would provide a huge PR bump since Jays fans are clamoring for a big move this offseason.

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Comments

Could the Jays

Have done better than what the Reds offered? Absolutely, they have the prosects to do so. But the package that you suggsted falls way short:
Alonso >> Cooper as a prospect; Grandal >> Jiminez or Perez.

Then you hav to ask should the Jays have given up a similar package to what the Reds did…my argument would be no, I think San Diego got the better side of the trade, but it’s certainly open to debate.

I think the opportunity to trade Votto is even greater now for the Jays

I have to disagree, the Reds are in win now mode and Votto gives them the middle of the order bat. Escobar would be a big upgrade for them at SS, but it’s an even bigger downgrade at first, along with 2 fliers in Snider and Drabek.

Finally, a minor error – I think you accidentally put Jays instead of Reds in the sentence “stability for a small market franchise like the Jays”

by MjwW on Dec 18, 2011 1:34 AM EST reply actions

yeah

It’s silly to think the Reds would to trading Votto, even if they don’t start out well in 2012. I think they’re going all in for 2012/2013

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 18, 2011 10:26 AM EST up reply actions

The Jays are not a small market team

They may have a small attendance figure, but they are only behind New York and LA in terms of direct market size. And if you add all of Canada……
Also we would be selling low on Snider & Drabek who are both just 24. I can’t see AA selling low on any player.
In addition, AA has proven he places great value on being strong up the middle. As such Escobar will not be included in any trade until Hech has proven himself to be ready. Once Hech is deemed ready it is more likely that Escobar will shift to 2nd than a trade.
The other issue that trading for Votto creates, is that you immediately depress the value for Lind as teams now expect that you need to trade him. Once again we would be selling low on Lind.
I see the Jays mgmt working to further solidify (Darvish, lefty out of the pen, another late inning guy) our pitching staff this off season and giving Lind & Snider until the All Star break to what we actually have. If we are in the race and either is sucking wind, then is the time to upgrade. Also there will likely be more on the market and you may be able to get a better deal.
As much as I like Votto, I would rather we wait until he is a Free Agent then it’s just money and a pick. Also I am coming around to the idea that Lind may have a better year…….

by Keith72 on Dec 18, 2011 8:10 AM EST reply actions

Yes I meant Reds not the Jays

I meant to say that the Reds are a small market team. Look if you assume Yunel is about 4 WAR and Travis could be a . 5 WAR in LF and LInd is around 1-2 WAR at worst you bascially are at a wash with Votto’s 7 WAR. Drabek provides a solid arm that is still held highly in baseball scouting circles.

To get an impact bat you are going to have to pay and take a risk at other positions. Do you really think the Jays can make the playoffs with Lind who probably will max out at .330-.340 OBA? The Reds have to win now, but they certainly are not going to be able to keep Votto in two years. So if you offer a package of solid big league talent who is controllable for 4 years that becomes a better proposition for the Reds.

by cjcl590 on Dec 18, 2011 11:52 PM EST up reply actions

If the point is to upgrade a weak spot then why create an even bigger one at a more critical position?

Hech is no where even close to being MLB ready with his bat as his hot streak at LV is a SSS and has to be discounted. He’s not coming up to Toronto, yet.

Paul Janish? Yuneski Betancourt? Sorry, no way. Look at the Braves after trading Escobar. They’ve been hurting at SS and been looking for another Yunel (to my amusement) and now are pinning all their infield hopes on Pastornicky.

You also create a bigger hole in the lineup. Whatever Votto adds to the lineup better exceed the dropoff when you lose Yunel. And someone has to bat leadoff. Who is that going to be?

I would like Votto “home”, too but your proposals don’t make sense for the Jays. Joey Votto is a Red and likely to remain one till at least 2014.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 18, 2011 8:26 AM EST reply actions

If the Jays acquired Votto to replace Lind

and traded away Escobar to do so, the Jays would come out way ahead. Votto is a 7-8 win 1B, and would be replacing a replacement level (maybe 1-2 win upside this year) Lind. Escobar is a 4-5 win SS, but we could probably find a 1 win SS cheaply to replace him. We’d be looking at a 3-4 win upgrade easily in that transaction.

by SuckaMD on Dec 18, 2011 9:36 AM EST up reply actions

For Escobar brings, he is cheap based on his contract

However, I think your logic falls apart as the Jays would have to trade pieces other than just Lind and Escobar to get Votto as the Reds are also looking for starting pitchers and possibly 3B. Sure AA could possibly throw in Cecil, but I doubt that the Reds would want to have him. I’m thinking the Reds would ask for Morrow or Romero and possibly Lawrie as well.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 18, 2011 10:00 AM EST up reply actions

The Votto trade talk drives me crazy for 4 reasons

1) Pretty much every team except the Braves and Rays needs top end pitchers
2) The Reds and Jays don’t match up except in areas where the Jays don’t have much to spare (3B and top of the rotation starters.)
3) The Reds are going to ask for the moon and the sun to trade Votto who is the heart of their lineup which means the Jays have to gut their farm to get him. With what I suspect a Votto trade is going to cost is going to put the Jays no better than they are right now. 4th place in the AL East.
4) Walt Jocketty is not Tony Reagins. He paid a very high price for Latos, but he gets a Top end starter to compete at little cost to his existing roster. He isn’t going to just give away his centerpiece for nothing. AA’s record is good but he’s not going to trade spare parts to get a Rolls.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 18, 2011 10:13 AM EST up reply actions

To clarify on point 3)

The Jays will be a better team keeping what they have. If it were possible to trade Lind straight up for Votto I would but that is not going to happen. Ever.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 18, 2011 10:28 AM EST up reply actions

re: leadoff

anyone can bat leadoff. If we traded Escobar for Votto, bat Votto leadoff for all I care. Its more important to have more good hitters in the lineup than to have guys who conform to stereotypes of what each position in the lineup is “supposed” to be

by SuckaMD on Dec 18, 2011 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

Still want a high OBP guy for leadoff.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 18, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions

yeah

Votto’s OBP >>>>> Escobar’s OBP

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 18, 2011 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

Point taken

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 18, 2011 10:30 AM EST up reply actions

The Jays equivalent would look more like

d’Arnaud, Gose, Cecil, and something like Carreno or Farquhar.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 18, 2011 10:24 AM EST reply actions

maybe it's a tiny bit more than the Reds package

because Cecil has 4 years left, but anywho, this is closer.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 18, 2011 10:25 AM EST up reply actions

oh, you included Cecil

I missed that

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 18, 2011 10:28 AM EST up reply actions

This is our own little Boston / John Farrell saga.

The Reds just made an all-in move to win the central with their last two years of Votto. I’m not sure how anyone could view that as an opportunity to trade for him.

by ABsteve on Dec 18, 2011 11:53 AM EST reply actions 3 recs

Brett cecil would be a bad fit

Brett Cecil would never interest the Reds given his propensity to get the ball up (GB/FB ratio was .88 last year). I’d rather keep him and see if the added weight loss this offseason leads to a return to increased velocity. In 2009 his FB was closer to 91, whereas last year he was around 88-89.

by cjcl590 on Dec 18, 2011 11:58 PM EST reply actions

I live 115 miles from Cincy.

I just know the 1st time I go there to watch Latos, he’ll get lit up. Great American Park is a bandbox. Every pitcher there has inflated #‘s. Harang put up all-star #’s when he left. We should trade for Mike Leake. He had that small park figured out last year. Does that translate to Rogers Centre? And he would cost much much less.

by Psychotoad on Dec 19, 2011 9:25 PM EST reply actions