BBB Community #15 Overall Prospect - Joel Carreno Vs. David Cooper

by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 21, 2011 12:16 AM EST

Results:

Adonys Cardona - 65.8%

David Cooper - 34.2%

Joel Carreno - RP/SP (Age 24) Throws:Right

2010: Class A+ - 137.2 IP 3.73 ERA 11.3 K/9 2.0 BB/9 0.5 HR/9 9.6 H/9

2011: Class AA - 134.2 IP 3.41 ERA 10.2 K/9 4.5 BB/9 0.8 HR/9 6.7 H/9

2011: MLB - 15.2 IP 1.15 ERA 8.0 K/9 2.3 BB/9 0.6 HR/9 6.3 H/9

Pre-2011: BBB#35 2011: Sickels #19

David Cooper - 1B (Age 24) Bats: Left Throws: Left

2010: Class AA - 553 PA .257/.327/.442 110 wRC+ 9.4 BB% 13.4 K%

2011: Class AAA - 545 PA .364/.439/.535 142 wRC+ 12.3 BB% 7.9 K%

MLB: 81 PA .211/.284/.394 82 wRC+ 8.6 BB% 17.3 K%

List:

1. Travis d'Arnaud - 90.6%

2. Anthony Gose - 65.9%

3. Drew Hutchison - 56.7%

4. Jake Marisnick - 97%

5. Noah Syndergaard - 74.4%

~~6. Nestor Molina - 75.8%~~

7. Deck McGuire - 65.7%

8. Justin Nicolino - 55.0%

9. Adeiny Hechavarria - 75%

10. Daniel Norris - 87.9%

11. AJ Jimenez - 55.3%

12. Aaron Sanchez - 79.3%

13. Carlos Perez - 60.7%

14. Adonys Cardona - 65.8%

Use Rec's to vote and place all comments in the comment area.

Finish whenever.

Next up:

Pitcher: Chad Jenkins

Position player: Marcus Knecht

Tweet Comment 47 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

I voted cooper because i can’t vote a guy whos going to be an ok reliever in the pen over a 1B that could be average in the MLB

+1 is only good if you actually rec the post

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 21, 2011 12:18 AM EST up reply actions

I’m higher on Cooper than most; his 2011 was one of the more unique seasons from a hitting prospect in the past couple years: modest amount of power, great contact skills, good walk rate and average. Unusual prospects always get undervalued, and Cooper is a 1st baseman who hits like a really good 2B. More power would be nice, but if Cooper can replicate his 2011 skills at the ML level, he’s an average ML first baseman. A big if, but all prospects are uncertain.

by gabrielsyme on Dec 21, 2011 1:10 AM EST up reply actions

Undecided, this is tough

I voted Cooper before, so it would would make sense in terms of direct transivity, to prefer Cooper here. But I look at the match-ups specifically, and it’s close. Cardona was so far away, that was the main reason, but Carreno is basically at the exact same developmental spot, so that makes it easier to compare.

They have some similarities – Carreno has succeeded, stat wise, as a starter in the minors, but projects as a MLB bullpen arm. Cooper, in the same vein, succeeded in the minors (at least the first couple and last couple years, with the blip in the middle), but doesn’t necessarily project as a MLB starter, more of the platoon or bench guy. Carreno has the classic, two plus pitches but some control problems of a reliever, and if he ca harness the control a bit, could be a shutdown reliever. That said, pitchers, especially those who feature sliders, are big risks. For that reason, I’m leaning Cooper, but interesting in the discussion to follow and hope to see some interesting points.

by MjwW on Dec 21, 2011 1:48 AM EST up reply actions

I voted Carreno

I think he’s already a pretty useful bullpen arm, with the possibility of becoming a late inning shutdown guy. Cooper, on the other hand, I see as currently a bench guy, with the possibility of becoming a below average to average starter. In either possibility, I see Carreno being worth as much or more.

by T_Mizz on Dec 21, 2011 4:09 AM EST up reply actions

This right here

I don't always like to tweet, but when I do it's @HouseOfTheBB
And when more than 140 characters are needed, I write at HouseOfTheBluebird.com

by Bluebirdz on Dec 21, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

I voted cooper, mostly on gut.

Matchsticks and Gasoline
Go Flames Go!
Draft Pick Tracker - Unsigned Draft Picks - Understanding Advanced Stats

by Justin Azevedo on Dec 21, 2011 3:26 AM EST up reply actions

Cooper

Carreno seems to me, at best, a right handed, far better version of Brian Tallet – can maybe start if he has to, but would be best served coming out of the ‘pen. Dark horse closer candidate, if Santos wasn’t here.

Here's my attempt at a witty sig. Didn't really go so well, methinks.

Wise men wonder, while strong men die.

by Cam Oegema on Dec 21, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

heh

“a right handed, far better version of Brian Tallet”

so, you know, not Brian Tallet

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 21, 2011 12:11 PM EST up reply actions

yeeeup

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 21, 2011 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

Carreno's awesome, he really impressed me in his short stint with the team this year.

by Joey Kirby on Dec 21, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions

Cooper it is

After some deep thought. Though looks like I’ll be on the losing side on this one.

by MjwW on Dec 21, 2011 11:19 PM EST up reply actions

My view (supposed to be in previous post)

by MjwW on Dec 21, 2011 11:21 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah according to your graphs Carreno has both the floor and the ceiling on Cooper

Cooper really just has that little triangle where he’s a decent starting 1B and Carreno is just a mid reliever.

by T_Mizz on Dec 22, 2011 12:38 AM EST up reply actions

Right

Just a note – that upswing at the end for Carreno is really two things – where he’s an a elite high leverage reliever, partially, but most of that is covered earlier, since even few elite high leverage relievers will average more than 1.5-2.0 WAR across their peak years. But it also represents the samll chance he sticks as a starter, and becomes a decent mid-rotation starter. It’s unlikely, very unlikely, but he’s never failed as a starter persay, so I think you have to give him that. So where he crosses Cooper in the ceiling right at the end, it’s representing him as a starter

by MjwW on Dec 22, 2011 10:35 AM EST up reply actions

Right I forgot about that possibility

But then again I feel the Jays have too. With all the pitchers ahead of him (we have 7 prospects alone) on the org depth chart, I find it unlikely he’ll go back to starting (I guess that’s the last 1%), but even then the only scenario I can imagine him going back to starting is if none of those prospects pan out or all are traded.

by T_Mizz on Dec 22, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

I see it as 3-5%, but we’re still talking really long odds. In fact, my diagram probably over emphasizes it, the tail should probably be be a bit narrower

by MjwW on Dec 22, 2011 1:20 PM EST up reply actions

Nah the tail, to me atleast, looks like 1-3%

by T_Mizz on Dec 22, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

Meaning it doesn't overemphasize it

by T_Mizz on Dec 22, 2011 1:34 PM EST up reply actions

Side note

Since we inevitably have these every single time we should just make it the first comment.

by T_Mizz on Dec 22, 2011 12:49 AM EST up reply actions

I can try to do that

Honestly though, it’s just a personal opinion. I actually kind of find it useful to make it to think about the players – that is, I didn’t have this in mind when the poll came out. But I can preapre the next one ahead of time if you think it’s useful for others to see it, at least from a sense of agreeing or not

by MjwW on Dec 22, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions

At the very least it will give one visualized opinion

which can start lively debate.

by T_Mizz on Dec 22, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

I'll do it

Looks like Carreno will win, so then Jenkins is next. That’s a tough one, so I’ll start kinda thinking about it and letting thought distill until the next one goes up

by MjwW on Dec 22, 2011 1:21 PM EST up reply actions

I think it has to be Carreno. I think he’s going to be a fantastic reliever for us for sometime given the chance and Cooper is basically worthless, but a pretty fine bench player for us. Maybe we trade Cooper today and the discussion is over, lol.

by boltspeedman on Dec 21, 2011 3:39 AM EST reply actions

Cooper

I think his skills could translate into a decent mlb career. You can’t teach pitch recognition and patience.. He also showed some power in AA, which makes me wonder if he had his swing adjusted this past year to try and make more contact consistently, kind of the opposite of what they did with Gose. I think we will see Cooper hit 15 – 20 hr, plus still hitting for a high average.

by junkball on Dec 21, 2011 12:56 PM EST reply actions

"You can’t teach pitch recognition and patience"

yes you can

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 21, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

See Lawrie, Brett 2011.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Dec 21, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

touche...

but then what’s wrong with Adam Lind?

by junkball on Dec 21, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

he's not very good at hitting baseballs

at least, hasn’t been for two seasons

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 21, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions

I’d argue Lawrie had the ability all along. He was told to take a few more and work the count, show his skillset, and he did. If the skill wasn’t there, it’s not a case of just flipping a switch and send the instruction. Or everyone would hit like Lawrie

by MjwW on Dec 21, 2011 9:52 PM EST up reply actions

That’s possible too.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Dec 22, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions

yeah that's true

Sickels said in his writeup (IIRC) that plate discipline was one of Lawrie’s strengths on draft day

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 22, 2011 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

Quibble

You can teach it, but it’s one of the things that is hardest to, or else everyone would be a good pitch recognizer and very patient. It tends to be a pretty consistent trait in a player, by the time they get to the high minors

by MjwW on Dec 21, 2011 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

100% Agree

by yescobar on Dec 21, 2011 9:26 PM EST up reply actions

Look at some of the Jays prospects

Gose – 10.6 BB%/26.2 K% AA
McDade – 5.3 BB%/19.8 K% AA
Hechavarria – 5.0 BB%/15.5 K% AA
Snider – 5.4 BB%/ 27.7 K% MLB

by T_Mizz on Dec 22, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions

what is this supposed to show?

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 22, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

BB% and K% are statistics used in baseball

BB% stands for Base on Balls percentage and K% stands for Strikeout Percentage.

by T_Mizz on Dec 22, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

thanks bro

why did you pick those four players, and what are you trying to show by giving us this information? there’s no learning or non-learning there and they’re not even all at the same level

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 22, 2011 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

Nothing really

People were having a discussion, so I thought I’d chime in with the plate discipline numbers of some prospects in the high minors who have established reputations of poor plate discipline. You can look at it however you want. Ideally, I’d have shown the consistency to which Mjww alluded, or a Brett Lawrie comparison but I was pressed.

by T_Mizz on Dec 22, 2011 7:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

oh, okay

I thought I had missed some analysis or something

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 22, 2011 7:54 PM EST up reply actions

a lot of elite prospects have struggled in mlb because of poor pitch recognition and patience. I dunno how you can teach a batter how to read a pitch off the pitcher’s hand and how to not swing outside of the strike zone. I think that requires a players awareness.

by Sniderlover on Dec 21, 2011 10:13 PM EST up reply actions

Friendly thought for Pikachu/JaySask

Since Molina is gone, I would think some sport of adjustment is in order…maybe cross out his name, and remove the number?

by MjwW on Dec 21, 2011 1:45 PM EST reply actions

Next time

Or we could wait to add in Cespedes and Soler :)

by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 21, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

Boy, aren’t you going to be ticked if we don’t get either and “sources” (Expos’ PR guys) indicate we were a couple $M short.

PS – thanks for doing these. That goes to Pikachu too.

by MjwW on Dec 21, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

I’m getting accustomed to disappointment now. If we get one of them, I’ll be happy. I won’t any attention to the internet this time. It seems like one of the most reputable sources is MLB Trade Rumors. Sort of funny that a rumors site is more cautious than some of the more mainstream sites.

No worries, I’m glad you enjoy the posts.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 21, 2011 2:19 PM EST up reply actions