BBB's Summary of Off-Season Targets
by jays182 on Dec 21, 2011 5:32 PM EST
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Hey guys,
I thought it would be a good idea to put all of the Jay's potential off-season targets in the same place, listed with their pros and cons according to BBB's users. So in the comments you can list targets for me to add to the post and/or list pros and cons of the listed players that I can add under the player's name. I'll start with some obvious ones that have been talked about and hopefully we end up with a good list.
Pros: - Good pitcher with some solid success in AL East. (ppppffft)
-Using more of his pitches. Less reliance on fastball. (Jono411)
-Missed more bats in 2011 and throwing more first pitch strikes. (Jono411)
Cons: -Cubs will demand a lot. (SuckaMD)
-Expensive with only two years of control. (SuckaMD)
-Last pitched in the NL Central. (SuckaMD)
-Might not be that much better than options within the organization. (REMO)
Pros: -Takes care of first base issues. (yleviticus)
-Would help Bautista see better ptiches. (yleviticus)
-Allows us to trade Adam Lind. (JaysSaskatchewan)
Cons: -Wants 8+ years, won't likely be worth it then. (yleviticus)
-Not good defensively and might end up at DH. (JaysSaskatchewan)
-Have to give up first round draft pick. (JaysSaskatchewan)
Pros: -Willing to sign for one year.
-Coming off worst year. (2.5 WAR). (JaysSaskatchewan)
-Might get a draft pick out of it. (JaysSaskatchewan)
Cons: -Old (35 in August).
-Injury questions. (Back issues). (boltspeedman)
Pros:- Only looking for 1 year contract around $15M. (chewbalka)
- Would slot in nicely after Romero and Morrow as 3rd starter. (chewbalka)
- 1.24 GB/FB rate 3rd best among available FA starters. (chewbalka)
- Plus fastball and solid repertoire improves odds he’d be effective in AL East. (chewbalka)
- Would sting the Yankees because they’re rumoured to be after Kuroda. (chewbalka)
Cons: - Rumoured to prefer west coast and might just go back to Japan. (chewbalka)
-Back to back 200 inning campaigns but has previous injury concerns. (chewbalka)
- Highest HR/9 in career last year, just below league avg. (chewbalka)
- Old, 37 in February. (chewbalka)
Wei-Yen Chen
Pros: -Cheap to acquire (FA from NPB) (ppppfffft)
-Young. (26 years old) (ppppfffft)
-Lefty. (ppppfffft)
Cons: -Unproven. (ppppfffft)
-Relies on fastball.(ppppfffft)
Jorge Soler
Pros: -Comparable to top 5 overall pick. (JaysSaskatchewan)
Cons: -Pricey (15mil-30mil range). (JaysSaskatchewan)
-Doesn't fill any obvious holes. (JaysSaskatchewan)
-Not MLB ready. (JaysSaskatchewan)
Yoennis Cespedes
Pros: -Is close to MLB and can jump over stuff. (JaysSaskatchewan)
-26 years old, controllable, potential superstar. (JaysSaskatchewan)
-Would mean the Yankees can't get him. (JaysSaskatchewan)
Cons: -Expensive (30mil-70mil range) (JaysSaskatchewan)
-Unproven, could be a bust. (JaysSaskatchewan)
-Would push Thames and/or Snider to minors. (JaysSaskatchewan)
Pros: -Young. (28 to start season). (Jono411)
-Consistent 3.5 to 4 WAR in past three years. (Jono411)
-Would fit as a good #3 starter. (Jono411)
Cons: -May require large contract (years and/or $ amount). (Jono411)
-Could find a similar #3 starter within the organization. (Jono411)
Kendry Morales
Pros: -Good defender and athlete at 1B, young-ish. (spud77)
-Control. (spud77)
-Shouldn't require too much in return. (spud77)
Cons: -Coming off freak injury. (spud77)
-Doesn't have elite power yet. (spud77)
Pros: -Good reliever with a lot of potential. (spud77)
-Cheap, with control. (spud77)
-Young. (spud77)
Cons: -Only one season. Unproven. (spud77)
-KC might require a lot in return. (MjwW)
Pros: -Hasn't reached arbitration yet. (Bluebirdz)
-Great peripheral stats. (Bluebirdz)
Cons: -A lot of interested teams. (Bluebirdz)
-Will require a lot to get. (Bluebirdz)
Pros: -Good peripheral stats. (Woodman663)
Cons: -Expensive with not much control. (7mil then 9.5mil option). (Woodman663)
-Relies too much on breaking stuff. (Woodman663)
-Struggles with men on base. (Woodman663)
Pros: -4 years of control. (Woodman663)
Cons: -Only a short track record of pro success. (Woodman663)
-Might take a lot to get him from White Sox. (Woodman663)
Pros: -Had a good 2011. (Woodman663)
-Might not require much in return. (Woodman663)
Cons: -Two years of control, with injury concerns. (Woodman663)
-Flyball pitcher. (Woodman663)
Pros: -Is a good pitcher. (Woodman663)
Cons: -Only two years of control, coming off injury. (Woodman663)
-Better suited to Oakland's park than Toronto's. Woodman663)
Pros: -Could return to past form. (Woodman663)
-Four years of control. (Woodman663)
Cons: -Expensive. (Woodman663)
-Bad 2011 season. (2.1 WAR) (Woodman663)
Pros: -Ground ball pitcher. (Woodman663)
-Cheap. (Woodman663)
Cons: -Pitcher's park. 5.04 away FIP in 2011. (Woodman663)
-Short track record of success. (Woodman663)
Pros: -Has some power. (REMO)
-Might catch lightning in a bottle. (REMO)
Cons: -Blocks Snider/Thames (REMO)
-Expensive, soon to be free agent. (REMO)
-Would cost prospects to get. (REMO)
Pros: -Could complement EE/Lind in part time DH role. (REMO)
-Might be cheap. (REMO)
-Can still slightly hit...meh (REMO)
Cons: -Old, slow, can't play defense anymore. (REMO)
-Might want more than part time role. (REMO)
-Could completely fall off the cliff. (REMO)
123 comments
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Comments
Prince Fielder
Pros
-Takes care of first base issues
-Imagine him and Bautista
Cons
-Wants 8+ years
-Will likely suck then
I am the Walrus
Con:
- Not good defensively.
- May end up at DH.
- Have to give up our 1st round draft pick.
Pro:
- Allows us to trade Adam Lind. Wouldn’t have a lot of value but should get us something.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 21, 2011 8:08 PM EST up reply actions
If you look at his DWAR
Its always bringin down his WAR
He is TERRIBLE apparently.
I hope not
Fielder sounds like a trap too!
Shorter Term
I’m in favour of getting fielder only if he’s available at reasonable contract length (no more than 5-6 years) if Prince and Boras don’t want to go that short, i’m fine without him
Matt Garza
Pros
- Good Pitcher
- Has found some success in the AL EAST
Cons
- Epstein wants a lot for him
- Only under team control for 2 years
- Not all that young
Cons
-not actually very good: never had an xFIP under 4.00 until pitching in the NL Central with an unsustainably low LOB% and lower than career average HR/FB.
-Cubs will require a lot to acquire him
-expensive already
-only 2 years of team control
PASS
Pro
clearly a vastly different pitcher in 2011 than he was before:
-fastball usage dropped from 71% to 53%, slider usage jumped 10%, curveball and changeup usage jumped 3-5%.
-swinging strike rate jumped from around 8% the previous three years to 11%, first pitch strike rate jumped from around 57% previous three years to 64%.
this suggests that we should overweight his 2011 performance when projecting him.
Carlos Beltran
Pros
- Switching hitting, legit moddle order bat
- I’ve talked myself into believing this isn’t a completely bad idea
Cons
- Probably going to Boston, doubt he’s seriously considering Toronto
a few more cons
-Is an injury risk.
-Turns 35 this year.
-Probably requires a 2 year commitment in the neighborhood of $25M total.
and pro:
- Has 61.7 career WAR and would be a borderline HOF candidate.
- Coming off of his worst injury-free season (4.7 WAR).
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 21, 2011 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
Id be suprised if we let him play anything but DH or 1B
Maybe LF but still, less ground to cover.
Boston and St. Louis
were the two he was lnked to who make most sense. Apparently the Cards are the one now
Hiroki Kuroda
Pros:
- only looking for 1 year contract around $15M
- would slot in nicely after RR and Morrow as 3rd starter
- 1.24 GB/FB rate 3rd best among available FA starters
- plus fastball and solid repertoire improves odds he’d be effective in AL East
- would sting the Yankees because they’re rumoured to be after Kuroda
Cons:
- also rumoured to prefer west coast and might just go back to Japan
- back to back 200 inning campaigns but previous injury concerns
- highest HR/9 in career last year, just below league avg
- 37 in February
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
my vote goes for Kuroda
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Wei-Yin Chen
Pros:
- cheap to acquire (he’s a free agent from NPB)
- 26 years old
- southpaw
Cons:
- totally unproven
- relies heavily on his fastball
Jorge Soler
Pros:
- Could be the equivalent of a top 5 overall draft pick:
Some teams prefer Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler to Yoenis Cespedes, Jim Callis of Baseball America writes. Had Soler been available in the 2010 amateur draft, Callis expects he would have been a top-five selection. [MLB Trade Rumors]
Cons:
-Won’t be cheap ($15-30M?).
-Doesn’t necessarily fill an organizational need.
-Isn’t mlb ready.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 21, 2011 7:44 PM EST reply actions
On the cost
Is it cheap or expensive? Depends. Compared to the rest of the top-5 picks, sure. But top-5 picks, in aggregate have a high return far in excess of the bonuses they get.
I’d be fine if the Jays spent $20M+ on him (of course, only if the front office sees the value).
Haven't heard much about this kid
In fact, this is the first I’d heard of him, but then a quick google search and I somehow feel like my life won’t be complete until the Jays sign him.
Felt the same.
Had only heard his name, but never really looked into it.
"And I'm like forget Yuuuuuu"
Roy Oswalt
Con- on top of being old, he also has back issues
Pro
- Coming off of his worst mlb season (2.5 WAR).
- May only require a one-year commitment.
- If he has a really good year we might get a draft pick.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 21, 2011 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
I had it as a pro for Beltran too. It just means that his floor is pretty high.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 21, 2011 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
For a younger player, I would agree
While I am not suggesting that either Oswalt or Beltran will fall off a cliff, but having the worst year of their careers while being in their mid-30s makes me think their floor is a bit lower than what they did last year. I would say the sign of decline to be a con, especially in the case of a 2.5WAR pitcher (4.7WAR still has a ways to go before he is not a valuable player).
For me, I’m pro Beltran, but against Oswalt. That declining curve makes me think he will be a very expensive 2WAR player next year.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Dec 21, 2011 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
Yoennis Cespedes
Pro:
- Can jump over things.
- Is mlb ready—or close to it.
- Could be a superstar.
- Is 26 years old and controllable.
- The Yankees wouldn’t get him.
Cons:
- Will likely be quite expensive ($30-70M).
- Could be a flop.
- Would probably relegate Thames and Snider to AAA.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 21, 2011 7:59 PM EST reply actions
But still
I watched video and it looks darn good.
I may not be the smartest person on this board but I watched around 400+ games of baseball and aren’t stupid.
I agree with you that its all downhill but that looks like a good downhill.
Never said you’re stupid, and don’t appreciate the insinuation that I did. All I pointed out was that he’s 26 (and maybe older) and that in terms of the aging curve, he;s not going to get better.
The video is put together by his reps. You only see what they want you to see, that is, only the good, so you need to take it with a grain of salt.
I wouldn’t want to pay $40-60M for the age 26-32/33 seasons of a guy’s who’s never pplayed in North America, unless he was really really good. And by that, I mean, I had a bunch of professional scouts saying he was really, really good, not just from people watching a video exholing his virtues.
I was saying it as in
Im not stupid because I was about to take a leap of faith by saying the famous I watched tape thing which just opens up to controversial cluster of comments debating your ability to watch tape.
not just from people watching a video exholing his virtues.
Which it kind of did tbh.
But I agree 45M or under is the only way Id do it (And I see your range is 39M and under)
My range isn’t really under $39M, just from what I’ve heard rumoured, there’s almost no way it comes in under. Honestly, I have no idea what I’d be willing to pay – I have no clue how good he is. If AA told me he thought he was worth $100M, I’d believe it. I’m not close to a professional evaluator, and frankly (and I don’t mean this in an insulting manner at all) neither are you. And I’m not talking about ability to watch tape. Watching tape is a very limited way to evaluate a player, especially when it’s not scouting tape from the rigt angles. The even bigger issue is it’s not an accurate representation of the player, it’s only what his reps (the people trying to get him more money) want you to see. The problem isn;t what you can see persay, it’s what you can’t see. Watching the videos is fun, but there’s really not a lot else you can take from it, other than he was a good player in Cuba, and he’s pretty athletic.
Yeah I agree that Im not a professional talent evaluator :(
Pretty athletic though? come on ;)
That's what I was thinking
They keep saying he has 30-30 potential. But he’ll be 27 next year, potential does you no good in the peak of your career because you’re not going up (unless you’re a Jedi or something) you’re going to plateau then drop. So if you think he has 30-30 potential, you essentially need to think he’ll come in and do that next year.
Is Tony Jaa available?
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
Yoennis Cespedes
and can jump over stuff
So could Joey Gathright, and it hasn’t helped his baseball career
Little late t0 the party :)
Joe[y] Gathwright Could jump over things too.
by MjwW on Dec 21, 2011 8:55 PM EST
I didn't mean that as a serious pro btw
by JaysSaskatchewan on Dec 22, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
I was serious......Tony Jaa can probably make it halfway up the Green Monster
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
Edwin Jackson
Pros:
-only 28 to start next season
-last three years have been between 3.5 and 4 WAR
-upgrades our rotation, would be a good #3 starter
Cons:
-might require a large contract (either in $/year or length)
-not a top of the rotation starter, so we might be better off just trying internal options and seeing who develops
I don't know about Jackson
His WHIP is a little high. He was solid (but unspectacular) in 2010 and 11, but kinda bad before that. He’s probably going to cost over 8M/year and for more than 1 year. I have a feeling that he’d eventually end up being our 5th starter.
I hope we sign Beltran and Oswalt
They’re both tremendous players that we could sign in order to help us in the short term. Even better is the fact that they would be valuable trade chips at the deadline. Imagine the haul a team would give up for these two.
OK, screw it
Reading MLBTR about the Beltran rumours.
The Cardinals are believed to have offered a two-year deal worth at least $8MM per season at one point, Heyman writes.
If this is anywhere near the cost, then I want him. I’ve been trying to remain dispassionate, but he just makes too much sense (to me at least) on a two-year deal at anywhere near that cost. And now I’m going to be disappointed, at least somewhat, if we don’t get him. Ahd I hate that.
You can say that again
I was on board for signing him when I thought it was 25 over 2 years. If he signs for anyone at 16 over 2 and it’s not us, I will be disappointed.
by T_Mizz on Dec 22, 2011 7:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Kendry Morales
Pros: age, control, position of need (1B), plus defender, plus athlete, good combo of power/contactability, 2nd or 3rd on depth chart on current team so should be easy to pry away
Cons: coming off a major injury (freak accident), power is good but not (yet?) at an ‘elite’ level.
Greg Holland
I know less about him so others will have to fill in the gaps:
Pros: potential shut-down reliever, good fastball,…, behind Soria and Broxton in what was a very solid (and should now be even more solid) bullpen in KC, cost-effective, young, several more seasons of team control
Cons: one solid season, not yet proven in the AL Beast
I love the idea of one more bullpen piece
I would trade Cooper and B level prospect for him.
I know I love Cooper :D
But you need to give to get and I’m in the giving spirit (Happy Holidays KCR!)
But no I think it would be if anything a low ball offer, Greg Holland seems pretty darn good.
And Gose may be grade B but so is A.J. Jimenez (When I said B I mean B+/B/B-)
I don't know that KCR would be keen on Cooper specifically
just because they have Hosmer and Butler already
Meh gives them more options
Its like if we did a Snider for Justin Upton swap. We would make room.
I guess it depends how you value relief pitching
I’m not giving up a B level prospects (and I was aware you meant B-/B/B+, I just picked someone Sickels put at midrange) and Cooper for a reliever unless it’s a move that puts the team over the hump. Though if it’s more of a B- I could understand it
And yes, I liked Santos/Molina, but I see Santos as more B-/B than the B+ Sickels gave him
I think relief pitching is extremely important
See: Cardinals. I think its important to establish some long term pieces in the pen, but that’s just me.
I liked Santos/Molina too :)
I don't think they need Cooper
I’ve mentioned it in another thread, but KC needs starting pitching. Cecil and a swap of C-level prospects might get the job done
Jon Niese
Pros
-Hasn’t reached arb yet
-Has great peripheral stats
Cons
-Lots of teams interested
-Will likely cost quite a bit in terms of prospects
I don't always like to tweet, but when I do it's @HouseOfTheBB
And when more than 140 characters are needed, I write at HouseOfTheBluebird.com
Gavin Floyd
Pros
-Good peripheral stats
Cons
-Only two years of control and quite expensive (7 million, then 9.5 million option)
-Relies on his breaking stuff a lot
-Has problems with runners on base
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
Phil Humber
Pros
-Four seasons of team control
Cons
-Short track record of success
-White Sox are probably unwilling to part with him
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
Do they figure to rebuild quickly enough to still have him under control?
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
hmm, possibly
this is an unlikely option, for sure
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
Scott Baker
Pros
-Had a good 2011
-Might come cheap
Cons
-Just two years of control
-Injuries
-Flyball pitcher
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
Or over the fence
As the case may be
by siggian on Dec 28, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Dallas Braden
Pros
-Good pitcher
Cons
-Only two years of control
-Coming off injury
-Better suited to current home park
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
Chad Billingsley
Pros
-Could return to former glory
-If he does, team control for 4 seasons is a pro
Cons
-Expensive!
-Unimpressive 2011 season
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
Nice Woodman. Those are some pitchers that would fill the hole in the Jays rotation.
"And I'm like forget Yuuuuuu"
Could work
But it seems like he’s be another of the 3-6 options we already have, I dunno that’s really a great fit.
Tim Stauffer
Pros
-Groundball pitcher
-Cheap
Cons
-Petco effect? 5.04 FIP in away games in 2011
-Short track record of success
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
Rick Porcello would be a nice addition
by Matthew Mueller on Dec 24, 2011 12:32 AM EST reply actions
might not be terrible
good walk and GB rates, but really struggles to K guys. never had a FIP, xFIP nor SIERA under 4, but has team control and seems durable. I’m not real sure the assets, plus the innings lost to Cecil/Drabek/McGowan, necessarily make that a move I’d make though
Used to K a lot of guys in the minors
Detroit had him change his approach to induce more contact and go deeper in games.
by Matthew Mueller on Dec 24, 2011 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
no he didn't
5.2 K/9 in 2008 at A+, 6.1 K/9 (to 3.2 BB/9) in 4 starts at AAA in 2010. I highly doubt that’s from a change in approach and not struggling to miss bats at the Major League level
Porcello was also really rushed to the bigs. There may be some room for improvement, he’s still really young
oh wow didn't realize he was so young
that’s encouraging, though I can’t see how Detroit doesn’t ask a lot for him in that case
Carlos Quentin
Pros:
-Likely to have a better offensive season than Snider or Thames
-Has some power
-Might be able to pull off a big season
Cons:
-Blocks Snider and Thames
-A little expensive
-Free agent soon
-Would cost prospects to obtain
I'd be down for this one
if Chicago is really into our prospects, maybe he can be had for similar to Santos. He’d be a solid option in LF vs LHB plus some time at DH
Vladimir Guerrero
Pros:
-Could complement EE and Lind with the 1B/DH situation
-Might thrive in a part time role
-Might have to take a cheap contract if he wants to keep playing (e.g. Damon in 2011)
-Can still hit… a little
Cons:
-Old, slow, can’t play defense anymore
-Might not accept part time role
-Might fall off a cliff next year.
-A lot of “might’s”
To be fair, I thought he fell off a cliff last year with the O's.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 25, 2011 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
Yea... but he doesn't wear batting gloves...
That’s a huge pro in my books.
No Pressure Kyle, We've Already Replaced You...
by JaysFanExiledinOTT on Dec 26, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
pros
He is friggin awesome
one of my fav players of all time
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 27, 2011 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
used to root for the angels just because of him
my head says no but my heart says yes
by STZ513 on Dec 29, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
ditto
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 29, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
Vlad's head and heart would say yes
But his knees would scream No!
He may be the only player who makes the Molina brothers look like world-class sprinters
John Danks
I know this one is crazy, and don’t think it has a chance of happening, but here we go
Pros:
- Don’t know much about him, but stats seem solid
- Entering his prime, and signed through age 31 season
- Team control is a major part of AA’s valuation of a trade (see the Santos trade)
Cons:
- Just signed an extension with the White Sox – not sure how long they would have to wait. However, they just did pretty much the same thing with Santos
- Again, don’t know much about him as a pitcher, so I’m sure there are others.
- No trade clause? I didn’t see one mentioned, but I’m not sure.
I don't know if he should be considered a target considering the chance the Jays get him is probably 0.001%.
"And I'm like forget Yuuuuuu"
Trade for Hanley Rameriz
No more talk about Fielder, here is 3 years at 46 million for a key role position player, kicking over Escobar to 2nd, and KJ to Left Field as AA has already stated.
Wont cost you arm and leg, because he is a great deal of monies. Drabek, Thames and Jimeniz would be a great deal,. There is your 15 million dollar increase in salaries of which Teahen and Davis next year eliminates 50%. You have your hitter and now go after your 3rd Pitcher at the trading deadline or next year.
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