A year without Yu Darvish
by bluebird24 on Dec 21, 2011 7:25 PM EST
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PrintYu Darvish will not be a Toronto Blue Jay this year, we know that. Could our failed bid, which was reported as much lower than that of the Rangers 51.7, actually benefit this team for next year and in the future? I say yes. If the Rangers sign Yu Darvish, they will most likely not have enough money to sign Prince Fielder. As the Rangers are believed to be one of the few teams who could actually afford Prince, this may make the Blue Jays a stronger canidate for Prince. Obviously these are two very different players as Yu is a pitcher and Prince is a position player. But to compare them would be to say that Prince is a young established player, and Yu is a chance. If I were a GM, I would not risk 75 million dollars over the next 5-6 years on someone who has never pitched in the majors before. It would be almost equivalent to signing Brett Lawrie to a 6 year deal while he was still in triple A. As much as the potential for an exciting young Japanese star may seem, it rarely works out. Japanese players rarely end up meeting the expectations of their team and their contract, and usually end up bouncing from team to team. If the Jays were to acquire Matt Garza, it would cost many prospects. But to trade for an established pitcher who could be the Blue Jays number 2 man, would be preferred to a bunch of unproven prospects, many who most likely we will never hear of after the trade. Garza and Gonzalez are relatively cheap financially and would not put the Jays in a large whole like Yu would, costing the team over 100 million dollars. What would that saved money allow the Jays to do? It would open up a chance to sign Prince Fielder, and upgrade the DH/LF position by signing Carlos Beltran. This would give the Jays proven players, 3 of which have playoff experience (Garza, Fielder, Beltran). Edwin Jackson may be another cheaper option for the Blue Jays as is Joe Saunders.
If you look at the Blue Jays Pitching staff, it is evident that a number 2 starter is needed, as the talent drops of heavily after Romero and Morrow.
Here would be my projected lineup and rotation for the Jays without Yu.
Rotation
1. Ricky Romero LHP
2. Matt Garza RHP or etc......
3. Brandon Morrow RHP
4. Brett Cecil LHP
5. Kyle Drabek RHP/ Henderson Alvarez RHP
Batting Lineup
1. Yunel Escobar SS
2. Carlos Beltran LF/DH
3. Jose Bautista RF
4. Brett Lawrie 3B
5. Adam Lind 1B (Prince?)
6. Colby Rasmus CF
7. Edwin Encarnacion DH
8. Kelly Johnson 2B
9. J.P. Arencibia C
Another big question that no one is asking is "Can Brett Cecil return to his 2010 form"?. If Brett can find his way again and have another strong season like he had in 2010 when he had 15 wins, it makes the pitching staff considerably better.
The Blue Jays had the 5th best offense in the American League last year. Point is, the offense is their, Pitching is the number one priority. The Blue Jays need another pitcher, and AA usually gets what he wants. I have no doubt that this will be a much improved Blue Jays roster come opening day, and the Jays should be able to compete as early as this year.
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I voted Jackson
of the guys you have there. Oswalt might alright as a one-year filler. I’m not a fan of the rest. However, I do want somebody new, but just not particularly the guys you’ve listed…which is probably a good thing since when AA does make a deal for someone, it will be for someone who we didn’t even know was available.
I voted nobody
Id rater watch the spot in the rotation go to one of our premier prospects then some old guy. We are still a few games out of the playoffs unless we get lucky, and I dont like counting on luck.
Why make a trade with a bunch of people that project to be better than the player were trading for. I know prospects are overvalued and flame out but we are in a situation where we need to take chances. We have 1 player in the MLB in their prime, so we got time to fill out our rotation even more.
PS this coming draft is supposed to be loaded with HS pitchers :D
Pitchers that wont show up for at least 3+ years, we can win now with one more piece in the rotation, its a great time ti make a move. If these pitchers in the upcoming draft are so good, cant they be our next prospects to come in 3 years after weve been winning
I disagree
I think we are further away than you think and we have enough young players where hoping for more Lawries makes more sense.
A pitcher like that this year MIGHT get you into the playoffs. Waiting might also get us into the playoffs, and for more years. Its all about sustainability right now, unless you want Jays baseball to one day fall into the pits.
If the price is right ofc grab one but I don’t like the idea of Darnaud, Noah, Deck and Cooper for a guy who walks too many. If it takes Cooper, Noah and Thames Id do it but I doubt they would.
Gio Gonzalez is only 26 and Garza 28, their not exaclty 1 year fixes, also their is a lot of young talent already on the team in lawrie, arencibia, rasmus, escobar, romero, lind and thames, this team is built for the future, gonzo or garza only add to the young talent
But I think Gio would need to IMPROVE
To be a decent player in the Al East. You cant walk batters in one of the most patient divisions in the league. His BB is going up if anything, and his stuff isnt overpowering (from what i hear)
Agree with you there
Gio to me seems like a trap.
but it'll take significant parts of our future to get either of those guys
just sign Jackson. Pretty sure he’s a better pitcher than Gio, and only slightly worse than Garza.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I'm pretty sure
Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui matched expectations and did plenty to deserve their contarcts. Hideo Nomo was solid for many years, as well. Koji Uehara is a top reliever, and other relief pitchers from Japan have had success like Sasaki, Okajima, and others. Even Matsuzaka put up 7 WAR in his first 2 seasons, only to be done in by injuries. Most of these guys (except maybe the relievers) were the top stars of their day in NPB, much as Darvish is today.
Yes, some NPB players have been busts, but plenty of the top NPB players have turned out to be very good MLBers, and even superstars, when they came over.
Once again
baseball is about run differential, not about ordinal rankings of offense and defence/pitching. A sixth-ranked offense still has plenty of room to improve, so it is irresponsible to simply say that the offense is “good enough” and should be ignored to simply focus on pitching. The Jays should be focus on improving their run differential the best way they can without a prohibitive cost outlay. If that is best done (based on which players are available and their relative costs) by acquiring pitching, so be it; but if it can be best done by improving an already “good” offence, then that’s what should be done.
I happen to think that in the current market, acquiring bats is the best way for the Jays to do that. You might disagree, but the reason is not simply because the offense is “already good” and the pitching is “bad”
Im not saying to ignore it, im just saying Pitching should be the priority, Beltran would be a signficant upgrade as would Prince, again, just take care of pitching first, espicially in the AL east
also, the pitching is not bad, its ust young, cecil, drabek, alvarez and morrow for that matte still have much room for developement
Agree with you there again
I think people undervalue Cecil, Drabek, Alvarez (not Morrow because he has great peripherals)
But I think run differential is the most important thing and an upgrade on offense is equally as important as an upgrade on pitching. If we gain 60 runs signing Beltran and gain 60 runs trading for Gio, Id rather sign Beltran cause we give up less.
not sure you're getting it
upgrade in bats = upgrade in pitching. It doesn’t really matter where you upgrade, as long as you do upgrade.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
pitching does not need to be the priority
improving the teams run differential by the highest amount possible within budgetary constraints is. If thats best done with pitching, fine; if by hitting, fine; if by some combination of the two, also fine. Neither pitching nor offense need be prioritized, only improving the team however possible.
by SuckaMD on Dec 21, 2011 9:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Wish Yu were here...Sorry, but I love Pink Floyd
Need a new signature? Why not Zoidberg?
by dannyofbosnia on Dec 21, 2011 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
Id rather have both, Carlos said he would sign before christmas, so well now that soon, would love to have him, but after that Id like to get a pitcher before signing prince. I would shop Lind before signing Prince to see what you could get for him. If the Jays could get another large piece for Lind it makes a Prince deal that much better
Agreed
I think we are a few bullpen pieces away from having one of those legit playoff bullpens but in the present itll do.
Need a none of the above option
Obiously, everyone will want at least something to be added, but none of the options are either that good (relative to the cost) or realisitic (Oswalt)
I went Oswalt, but at best it’s 20-1 against
You try convincing a pitcher to come to the Rogers center
A hitter at least would have better career numbers and non-USA baseball player might feel more at home with the various cultural communities.
Oswalt would have to loose ESPN, pitch in a hitter ballpark, face the best competition.
Oswalt pitched for years in Minute maid park, a hitters park, not saying that the NL central is the same as the AL east
Not Rogers center :P
The point is its all negative for him if he comes here, if hes only looking for a 1 year deal my guess is he wants to boost his value and sign a bigger deal. He wont come to Rogers center to do that.
Certainly not a wise career move
To join a team with a small ballpark in the AL East in order to boost your value. Oswalt to San Diego!!!
I don't get this.
If we know pitching in the Rogers Center and AL East inflates numbers, don’t you think MLB GMs know the same? Mainstream fans may look at his likely higher ERA and go “OMG,” but they aren’t the ones offering contracts.
Gm's do know this.
They factor it in when making decisions, just like park factors, league, division etc. etc.
ERA is a not a metric used by most GM’s.
2013 could be the year to splurge
It’s possible that Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Dan Haren (club option), Shaun Marcum, Ervin Santana (club option), Jonathan Sanchez, Annibal Sanchez, James Shields (club option), Gavin Floyd and John Danks could all hit the market next year. I realize that a small fraction of this group actually will hit the open market, but still, not a bad time to have some money to spend on starting pitching.
I agree
2012 in a thin FA class. This is why Pujols walked away richer than A-Rod and Fielder will also walk away a winner.
2012 will also mark the first year the Yankees and Red Soxs cant overpay by the vast margins that they do, because of luxury tax. Also the Angels and whoever gets Fielder as well as Texas is out of money for next year probably.
Danks just signed a 6 year deal with the white sox, but yea, maybe we could sign jackson this year, and add another piece next year, really build the rotation
wow
5 years 65 mil for John Danks. I realize he’s still young and fairly decent but I thought the White Sox were rebuilding? Makes the Ricky Romero extension look pretty good, doesn’t it?
Keith Law Tweet
If you’re rebuilding, you trade Danks. If you re-sign Danks, you’re not rebuilding. If you re-sign Danks while rebuilding, you’re lost.
Well
They signed Santos to an extension and traded him two month later. So maybe this is just the precursor to a trade. Kenny Williams works in funny ways.
/Joking
May not be so much of a joke
What if a team said that they’ll trade for Danks and Williams wanted good prospects. The team says No. Williams then says, “Will you do it if I sign him to 5 year contract for X dollars?” That might change that teams thoughts if they know that they will have Garza for 5 years.
Basically, it’s a sign and trade. I’m not sure whether it’s allowed.
looks like market value
which, considering he has 2 arb years, doesn’t really make sense
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
The thing is
As I pointed out in another thread where this came out, theoretically the extension is just buying out free agent years (as well as firming up next year’s salary) so no surplus value should be created (unless Kenny Williams is a genius negotiator)
I read that Fangraphs article
And it seems as if this is a deal with a reasonable expectation of providing value. He would have to produce 2.5 WAR per year and so far he’s produced above that level (albeit one year just barely above). If that’s the case, it’s not that bad a deal.
This deal does sort of makes Danks an AA target. He’s young(ish) and cost-controlled now for 5 years and he might be attainable via a trade. He doesn’t have the huge surplus value but his contract isn’t that onerous either. It really depends on what Williams would want in return.
I haven't read the FG article
I will…but I understand we’re they’re coming from with the 2.5WAR…the thing with pitchers is, due to the injury risk with a long term deal, I think you have to account for that. Sure, it he stay as healthy as he has the last 5 years, he’ll almost certainly produce surplus value. If he blows the arm out, probably not.
Your last two sentences
Are why that the contract is a reasonable one. If he can stay reasonably healthy, he should produce excess value. If he’s not, 13 million/year is bad but it can be absorbed by a mid-revenue club without largely impacting their budget. If he loses a year, and a month or two here and there, the club should break even. So far, he’s been very healthy, which is a good sign.
The thing is, “if he can stay reasonably healthy” is the major caveat of any multi-year deal for a pitcher. You’re right the risk can be absorbed, but the point is, that risk has to factored into any deal, and the extension really shouldn’t add any surplus value to what Danks was before. And since the Jays didn’t meet KW’s price then, I ca;t see why they would now.
Can take out Haren, Shields, Santana
All those options are no brainers to be picked up, barring a blown out arm or something, in which case they won’t be pig prizes anyway
Agreed
Those option will be picked up. The guy that intrigues me in Hamels. I can’t imagine the Phillies have another 85-100 million lying around to give him, though I could be wrong. That Howard extension kicks in now (and it’s a kick to the groin).
The more I think about it
Why block our young pitchers? I’d like to see if Drabek can turn it around and maybe later in the season catch a glimpse of Hutch. If the Jays can get an absolute deal, then yeah sure. But I don’t think I want a pitcher unless we’re talking about at a #1 or 2.
Beltran would be a nice addition. However, again, it blocks Snider and Thames (unless one of those 2 gets significant AB’s as DH, or you can get value for them in a trade).
haha if only.......
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