Wish upon a star
by King Kelly on Dec 23, 2011 12:39 PM EST
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There have been several trades recently of major league players for packages of prospects - from Roy Halladay in December 2009 through Mat Latos, Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez in December 2011. In each case, the selling team received a stack of young prospects.
Invariably, there are differences of opinion about trading unproven (but promising!) minor league talent for proven MLB players. The discussion turns on the uncertainty surrounding minor league players, and the degree of success they will achieve at the major league level.
The experiment
To get a better handle on the “odds”, I did an experiment.
I took the first rounds of the MLB drafts for 10 years, from 1996 to 2005. A total of 296 players (28 first round picks in 1996 and 1997). I then calculated how many of those 296 players turned out to be “stars” – which I defined as playing in at least one all-star game in their career.
I appreciate that this is greatly over-simplified. It equates an Albert Pujols with a J. D. Drew (2008 All-Star game MVP!). But it gives a general idea of the odds of a first-rounder making it at least semi-big.
Total number of all-stars? 53. Or to put it another way, a top-30 pick has about an 18% chance of playing in at least one all-star game in their career.
(For inquiring minds – of the 53 all-stars, 25 played in more than one all-star game)
Top-10
I also did a calculation of the difference between a top-10 pick and a 11-30 pick. Of the 53 all-stars, 27 of them were chosen in the top 10 and 26 in the following 20 picks.
So your chances of getting an all-star in a top 10 pick is 27/100, or 27%. With an 11th – 30th pick, the odds drop to 13% (26/196).
To illustrate what this means – if a team traded 4 first-round picks for one MLB player, and none of the first-round picks was a top-10, the odds that even one of those picks would ever play in a single all-star game is less than 50%.
So what does it mean?
General managers are no fools. They realize that a Nestor Molina or Jarrod Parker could turn out to be the next Verlander … but it is statistically more likely that they will turn out to be Kris Benson (first overall pick in the 2006 draft. Lifetime 70-75, 4.42). And there is a very good chance they will turn out to be Chris Gruler (drafted 3rd overall in 2003 – never played a game at the MLB level)
Prospects are like lottery tickets – they have huge potential value, but (generally) with a low probability of success.
It is important to not be blinded by the upside without considering the odds.
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This is interesting
But the next step – and the critical one in my opinion – is to ask what these guys were worth on average in surplus value. Because that’s what teams are essentiall trading most of the time. Most players won’t add much surplus value. But those who do – our stars essentially – add a heck of a lot.
Exactly
When we traded Marcum for Lawrie, we traded a good pitcher. But, he’s going to be paid like a good pitcher. What we got back was a good player (potentially exceptional) that’s being paid (a lot) less than a bench/depth guy, like Jeff Mathis.
by T_Mizz on Dec 23, 2011 2:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
true, but eventually, when hes at his prime, hell be payed like another player, what is the poin of having prospects that work out and always trading them for more prospects so you dont have to pay the one that worked, its a never ending cycle for some teams(Oakland Athletics).
You described the Rays
Thats exactly what the Rays do. Its banking on the constant surplus value of their players. Why pay more than one arbitration year, when trading a proven young player can get you 4 more later? For the best teams, they do a combination of both, lock in young stars, and trade away other surplus assets that don’t fit.
@VagabondBansal
a know the rays have come close, thats never a team that can win a world series, sometimes you do need that supersttar in his prime to dominate, in order to go all the way, the Rays will never have that, as soon as david price hits free agency, hes out of there, eventually your luck runs out, and then what?
ok, so you need more than one, Jose’s a superstar, watever, point is, rays dont have enough players in their prime, much like price, when longoria’s contracct is up in 3 years, hes gone, he also gets hurt a lot
eight players above 100 wRC+ (not counting Wade Davis)
hardly “sucks”, particularly when you have very good pitching and superlative defense
so you choose to ignore the fact
that they had eight above-average hitters on their team? alright bro
I don't get it
how does it suck? 103 wRC+ in 2011. the Jays had a 99 wRC+ in 2011.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
the top 4 is actually pretty brilliant
jennings-upton-longoria-zobrist is pretty comparable to escobar-lawrie-bautista-rasmus(or whatever). They lack the depth, but make up for it in other places.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
pitching is not close to best in the league
by fWAR, they’re 17th best in MLB (2 WAR better than Jays)
starters 10th best by fWAR
even given Moore and Hellickson improvement this team doesn’t approach the Phillies
while not necessarily "luck"
the best team wins a playoff series far closer to 50% of the time than one would expect (ie, regular season winning percentages are not very close to playoff winning percentages)
they do
just not as much as the regular season (which also isn’t as much as is often thought in traditional baseball thinking)
everything does
… this is based entirely on the fact that there’s so much luck in playoffs. could be wrong here
I'm asking if the effects of a bullpen is magnified in the playoffs
I don’t think it would be, but some people are telling me it is.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
or is it that
if a team has 3~4 very strong bullpen arms, they use them more frequently in the playoffs than in the regular season
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
a dominant bull pen shuts down late come backs ( witch you could call “luck”) so they are more important in the playoffs
doesn't work like that
we’ve been through this so many times I don’t want to rehash it.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Starting rotation
If the starters can’t consistently go 7 innings, eventually the bullpen pays the piper. Generally, lesser arms go into the bullpen and managers tend to use more reliable ones more. However, if your bullpen is being asked to finish off the 5th or 6th inning frequently, not only are you going to wear out the reliable arms through overuse, your also going to have to use the more unreliable arms too.
To me, the best way to build a good bullpen is to use it less. Get starters who can reliably get into the 7th inning or better. This way, you only use a small number of relievers per game and they would be the better bullpen arms anyway.
not really critical to the argument
but I’d say no, just under 9 fWAR past 2 seasons is great, but I wouldn’t classify that as “superstar” performance (he could certainly improve though)
longoria's deal isn't up in 3 years
his options are surely getting picked up. He’s affordable through 2016
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
continued
again, talk about the team last year, it was a team that snuck up and barely made it in, much like the cardinals, differences-albert pujols, holliday, carpenter, lohse, etc. they had the talent to win, the rays(specifically their lineup) did not
well put
At some point you need the $ to go all in and make a push for the WS championship
Yes
And trying to push an 81 win team to a WS is like trying to push a 747 up a hill… blindfolded… and backwards.
Okay your right
Signing Fielder = pennant
Stop making me google your advanced use of words
I was just simply agreeing with Benk.
by Mike Andrew on Dec 29, 2011 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
Bah
Rays situation is also helped out significantly by the fact that they were big time losers for the first 10 years of their existence. David Price, Evan Longoria and BJ Upton (their two best, and arguably three best players) were all top 5 draft picks, as was Jeff Niemann.
Losing sucks, but it’s good to have lost in the past.
And just imagine if Josh Hamilton, Rocco Baldelli and Tim Beckham had worked out.
Great point
Delmon was a 1st overall, he brought Garza and Bartlett.
The difference (and it's a huge one) is
That we are NOT the As or the Rays. We ARE owned by a giant corporation that can give the Jays money should they be convinced that it’s a smart use of that extra money. We ARE in a market that gets behind a winner and will flood the stands when they Jays start to win. We ARE in a market that is nationwide, much like you could say the Yankees and Red Sox are. We are NOT limited to this “never ending cycle” like those small market teams are.
Point being, that when the time comes to lock up our superstars we WILL be able to keep them for as long as we want. One needn’t look farther than the past two years: Bautista, Escobar, Romero, all locked up for 5 years or longer.
by T_Mizz on Dec 23, 2011 3:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
yes, the corporation is very large and wealthy
but we don’t really know how much money the corporation will choose to allocate to baseball operations, to be fair. I think all the crying about “Rogers is cheap” is a bunch of bull, but that view (outside of locking up young players/Bautista) has really yet to be proven wrong, to be fair
Well to be fair
I’m only talking about the locking up young stars and not having to trade them as part of this “never ending cycle”, to be fair.
by T_Mizz on Dec 23, 2011 3:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
but we still don't reeeeally know
wait, Rogers already owned the team when we signed BJ/AJ, didn’t we?
Yep, I believe so
Although, you’re right that we don’t reeeeally know whether AA will use that money on FAs. We do know that Rogers will give him money for extensions though. And Trades.
by T_Mizz on Dec 23, 2011 3:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Non-linear value curve
I agree – but the question is complex. Brett Cecil had a 1.2 WAR in 2011 and earned ~400k. So (at a simplistic $5m/win) his excess value was $5.5 million. Felix Hernandez will earn $18.5 million next year, and had a 4.7 WAR in 2011 (all WARs from BR). Assuming that you believed that Felix’s 2012 WAR would approximate his 2011 figure, his excess value will be $5.0 million – less than Cecil. But in a trade, Felix has obviously far higher value.
My point is that it is relatively easy finding good value in a 1-2 WAR pitcher. It is far harder finding similar value in a 5 WAR pitcher, and as a result the excess values are not comparable.
not really fair
because the vast majority of competent Major Leaguers vastly outperform their rookie contracts (Lawrie has a legit shot at $100M surplus value)
Okay
I never said you had to use a linear curve….use whatever curve you want, though linear is most accepted one. My point is, to really complete the analysis and make it significant, you have to go a step further and look at surplus value, however you want to define surplus value
Of course he's worth more in a trade
You can’t look at surplus value in a vacuum. You have to take into account the context, ie Felix is giving you that surplus value at 5 WAR, Cecil is giving you the same at 1.2 WAR.
by T_Mizz on Dec 23, 2011 3:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah agreed, but also absolute value
That is if you want to win. You could hypothetically spend 25 MM and have the highest surplus value in the league but have the lowest absolute value. Yes, you’d have a team that is much more competitive than it should be but nowhere near the absolute value necessary to contend.
by T_Mizz on Dec 23, 2011 3:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
also agreed
I’ve brought this point up before, but because a high surplus value-low wins team will undoubtedly have many serious holes, they can probably still improve without sacrificing surplus value up to a very high wins value (like 90) – the Jays are a true talent 95 win team without anyone really providing value (yet) at LF and huge question marks at 4-5-6 starters
How did our own first rounders work?
I can think of some all stars drafted in those years.
We got Ricky Romero, Alex Rios(still a bust), I think Vernon Wells was 1997, Roy Halladay 1996? Hard to believe Rios was drafted only 2 years after Wells.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Dec 23, 2011 1:36 PM EST via Android app reply actions
how can an All-Star with 14 WAR over three seasons be a "bust"?
he can lose effectiveness, but I would argue being one of the top RFs in the Majors precludes a player from being a “bust”
his definitely didn't earn his contract extension
but as a “first rounder” I don’t see any possible way he was a bust
Exactly
When evaluating draft picks, one should still to the control period. Any extensions beyond that are based on market values, and more significantly, are a completely different decisions than the decision to draft the player.
Rios made it to the majors, and was a successful player for a couple seasons. By any measure, that’s a successful draft pick.
wasn't disagreeing with you
just saying that most people see him as a bust because of the extension
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
that's different, IMO
as a player, I think it’s totally unfair to consider him a bust. he was arguably the best right fielder in baseball from 2007-2008 (tied for highest WAR with Markakis and Suzuki, Rios had fewest PAs among the three). in my humble opinion, that disqualifies a player from being a bust.
of course, it still sucks that he completely fell apart after that extension, though
Prospects are more like playing Bingo
In every draft there’s going to be some winners but many many more losers.
AA is like that person who goes and buys 20 bingo sheets knowing that buying more gives him a better chance of yelling “Bingo”. What’s more, he’s able to wield his dauber like crazy across the 20 and not miss a single call.
In AA I trust
I still think one of the largest scouting departments in the MLB with some of the best scouts (I remember one of ours winning scout of the year or something) has a better chance at projecting players upsides and such than other clubs.
So its more like an game of poker, in the sense that some players tend to be better than others buck luck strikes.
probably
but we definitely can’t tell for sure, since there is presumably a lot of noise in prospect evaluation. maybe after several seasons, if the Jays (continue to?) draft well, we could make some judgments about the effectiveness of the Jays’ increased draft spending.
in any case, I’m sure it’s not hurting to have as much good information as possible
I think the biggest thing that helps
Is a wider brush, we can scout more amateurs than almost any other club, which makes our draft board stronger.
We won’t be able to tell for sure for a while but so far good scouting has turned into a good farm (Its funny how teams that crank out draft bonuses don’t always end up with good farm systems too)
yeah
MjwW and I have discussed it before – improved information over other teams could definitely be a market inefficiency
Yep
In particular, the ability to find draft picks who sign below slot – like Noah Syndergaard in 2010 and hopefully Joe Musgrove in 2011 – but are overlooked talents is really valuable under the new CBA.
Having the ability to scout more guys, and more thoroughly – especially those more under the radar guys – is potentially a hige advantage going forward
Ahh
Nice to see I agree with you guys for once :) I must be learning!
This new CBA will certainly make things harder.
This new CBA will certainly make things harder.
No, it will make things harder for the average GM. The better ones will be able to exploit the differences between the old and new to identify the new inefficiencies. The fact that AA was able to exploit the old CBA thoroughly just before it expired means I have high hopes that he’s one of the better GMs at working on the edges of the new CBA.
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