Rumour du Jour: Matt Garza
by King Kelly on Dec 28, 2011 9:29 PM EST
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The latest rumour has the Jays negotiating for Matt Garza.
I like the idea of the Jays trading for Garza because …
- … he is good. His 3.19 FIP in 2011 was 8th best in the majors. Better than Verlander, better than Felix
- … he is strong. Averaged 31 starts and 197 innings per year over the last 4 years
- … he has stamina. 2011 second-half opponent OPS was .620 – first half was .691
- … he likes Rogers Centre. His career OPS there is .563. Granted, some of the Jays teams he has faced there were not World Series caliber, but still …
I don’t want Garza because …
- … has has only 2 years left of team control (free agent in 2014)
- … Cubs want a very high price for him. When they traded for him in Jan 2011, the Cubs gave up four prospects, two of them “jewels”. Arguably, Garza is worth less now, since he has one less year remaining and the Cubs have benefitted from the “bargain” salary of $6 million in 2011. But looking at the prices paid for Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill, he will not come cheap.
- … his salary in 2012 and 2013 will be substantial. Projected arbitration award in 2012 will be $8.7 million, with 2013 potentially over $12 million.
- … he will not be cheap to resign, either. Looking at something similar to the Danks 5-year / $65 million deal
- … he is not really a giant-killer. Career OPS against the Yankees is .799, and .716 against the BoSox. Not terrible, but not extraordinary either. (For reference, the Yankees’ 2011 OPS against all opponents was .788)
Bottom line? Same story as Gio and Niese – he is an excellent pitcher, and I would love to have him. But only at a fair price. And with all the competition for SP these days, it is very possible that it will take more than a fair price to get him.
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I’m starting to wonder if Alex is trolling the baseball writers for @#$%^ and giggles, someday one of these rumours will come true.
or if agents/teams are using him to drive up the price
“oh we have to compete with the jays prospects, we better make a move soon!”
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 28, 2011 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
AA in his office during this offseason
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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by Frag on Dec 28, 2011 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Blargh
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
Don't see it happening
But you never know. The key is, only two years of control. It just doesn’t really dovetail with the rest of the roster construction, and I don’t him being great value so that angle is out.
2 years of control
No thanks.
He is a great pitcher though.
I still think he looks pretty good
Good peripherals.. Not a dominant pitcher, I’d put him 3rd in our rotation.
by Mike Andrew on Dec 28, 2011 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
basically he's a slightly better 2010 Brett Cecil
more innings, slightly more Ks, BBs, and HRs
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I hated him whenever he faced the Jays.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
yeah. no.
He means it felt like he always shut us down when he faced us
I kind of remember him doing that too
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 29, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
Don't get this comparison.
He’s much better than Cecil.
What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward!
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 2, 2012 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't say "much"
But I agree that Garza is better.
Seriously?
Cecil’s best season isn’t even on the same level as an average Garza season. Cecil doesn’t strike out as many guys, walks roughly the same, and he has a major issue with giving up HR that Garza doesn’t have.
What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward!
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 2, 2012 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
Garza's FIP was above 4 every year in the AL East
Thats even with a higher LOB% than his career number.
Cecil isn’t much worse than him, not to mention hes only 25. I think he just had a few down years too, I’m a believer in the Cecil rebound, but just based on his past performance he isn’t that bad.
Garza in the AL East isn’t that great.
Except he owned the Jays
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 2, 2012 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
I've clearly said 2010 Brett Cecil
his 2010 numbers and Garza’s numbers in Tampa are comparable
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
2010 Cecil
is basically Garza’s floor though, while it’s Cecil’s 60-70th percentile. that’s highly valuable, though probably not elite
Don't like the asking price for Garza
I say we take Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden off the A’s hands for scraps considering they are trying to purge their payroll.
by Matthew Mueller on Dec 29, 2011 12:09 AM EST reply actions
brett anderson is desirable but he's a walking hospital ward
braden isn’t really desirable
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
It takes $5 million off their payroll. I think both would be assets. Put Anderson in the rotation and Braden in the pen. If they could be had for pennies on the dollar, I think it is worth the chance.
by Matthew Mueller on Dec 29, 2011 12:15 AM EST up reply actions
Anderson throws too many sliders which is what scouts suspected messed up his elbow in the first place.
Plus he and Braden are the only two experienced starters the A’s have left.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 29, 2011 12:31 AM EST up reply actions
After seeing the Red Sox trade
I think the A’s want to get rid of any player making over the league minimum. I’d try to take Fuentes, Balfour, Anderson, and Braden all off their hands. It costs about $15 million for all 4. If they pan out awesome. If they don’t so what.
by Matthew Mueller on Dec 29, 2011 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe Cooper, Jenkins, and 3 PBTNLs for Barton*, Fuentes, Balfour, Anderson, and Braden.
*Barton only because Pikachu loves him.
by Matthew Mueller on Dec 29, 2011 12:49 AM EST up reply actions
everyone loves McGowan and he is way more of an injury risk than Anderson.
by Matthew Mueller on Dec 29, 2011 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
if we hear about it before its a done deal...
its not happening.
You hit the nail on the head
Desirable, but not if it requires a package that’s anything like the Gio/Latos packages.
Although eventually we are gonna have to turn some of these prospects into gold.
As
a Pirates fan, Garza is filthy.
He’s a legit #1-2 and could still be an ace. Depending on the price, could be a solid move for the Jays, but I bet the price will be astronomically too high.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 29, 2011 1:25 AM EST reply actions
Cubbies fans want a greater return than what they gave up for him.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 29, 2011 8:05 AM EST up reply actions
That's
true, but they are fans, not eh GM haha.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 29, 2011 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
I'm actually angry at the packages they want
They want like Gose, Drabek, Deck and Noah or similar level packages. Its madness!
Well
that’s not really that far off. Problem with Garza is he only has two years of control.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 29, 2011 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
If we had 4 years of control I’d give them whatever they wanted.
we're pretty familiar with him.
I’d agree that he is a legit 1 or 2 in the NL central.. in the Beast? no. If the market weren’t so crazy it might not be a bad idea, but he’s going to get a better return than he deserves for tw years of control.
by ABsteve on Dec 29, 2011 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Eh
I guess.
Would y’all do it for say Marisnick, Nicolino, and a 3rd C/C+ type prospect?
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 29, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
I would
But I wouldn’t. I would personally call that a good package (I might try to slip in Gose and take out Marisnick) but I don’t think we should be looking to acquire a 3-4 starter in the AL East.
Eh
I think Garza is better than that FWIW, I think he’s better than Gio and Cahill, and I’d rather have him than Darvish.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 29, 2011 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
That's a bold statement
His FIP and fWAR in the AL East is behind Morrow, Romero, AND Alvarez (Even though he only pitched 1/3rd a season) so I put him as a 3-4 in our rotation.
I think hes a good pitcher, just not that good.
Fair
enough. I’ll go bold. No doubt in my mind that Garza is better and will be better than Morrow. I think he will be close to Romero.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 29, 2011 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
Okay
Well my opinion is significantly different than yours so we will call this one agree the disagree then. :)
he´s a legit #1-2 starter except for starting in the AL Beast
"Touch ´em all, Joe!"
by jaysfanfromeurope on Dec 29, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
That's
true, but then presumably you need an ace to get a #1-2, so Garza is still as valuable as a “second tier” pitcher.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 29, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
Worth the gamble?
Might be able to sign Garza for something like 4 years / $52 mil before 2012, according to mlbtraderumors (If you believe Fangraphs prediction that Garza will generate a 4.2 WAR in 2012, there may be excess value there). That would put him within the Jays 1-4 year “win window”.
And if not, Jays should get a good price for him at the trade deadline in 2013 from someone who thinks they are one SP away … remember Jeff Kent for David Cone in 1992? ;+>
Career OPS .563 at Rogers Centre
.. so a sub-4 FIP is not crazy. Also, a pitcher with a low FIP customarily benefits more than average from a strong defence. Lawrie and Escobar both had a dWAR of +0.9 in 2011 and Johnson (with TOR) and Lind were both +dWar.
That said, I like Jackson too – though I do not think he has the same upside.
Not sure if serious
But AA has signed a few free agents since he took over, just none so far this year, and no top end free agents.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Dec 29, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
If his 2011 wasn't great he wouldn't be on the block right now
So obviously the price is gonna be sky high. I have no doubt AA will address the SP problem but I doubt it’ll be Garz
I think the best way to adress it is by waiting
We have some solid pitchers from low A to AA and we all saw how good Alvarez did (small sample size however) and he started in A ball last year. Come 2013, we should have at least a few options to help fill the 5 slot (or possibly bump somebody down).
by Mike Andrew on Dec 29, 2011 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
Sources tell Kenny Ken Ken Rosenthall the Blue Jays are out on Garza
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/blue-jays-unlikely-to-acquire-garza.html
Garza is under team control through 2013 and the Blue Jays are wary of trading top prospects for a relatively short-term addition.
Can’t say I blame AA at all as I agree with this. I’m sure there will be a time when the Jays can and will do a trade like this, but it is not YET. I looked at fangraphs today and they had an article on the White Sox. Caught in the middle. Have no MLB ready prospects and stuck with hefty contracts they can’t move (thanks Kenny Williams for taking Rios off the Jays hands.) In a lot of ways that was the Jays in 08/09 but Chicago is lucky that they have some possible rebound candidates and excellent pitchers and they play in the AL Central. However, their team is old and will have to “win” now.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 2, 2012 7:18 PM EST reply actions
One thing that is nice about Garza is he is likely to net 2 picks in the top 40 as song as the Jays offer him a one year $12 mill contract.
It would be kinda cool if we could sign Fielder and trade Lind, Cecil, and Thames for Garza. Then grab 2 picks if Garza doesn’t re-sign.
by Matthew Mueller on Jan 2, 2012 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
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