FanPost

How Are We Going to Replace our Departed Players?


I decided to put together a little project. Nothing complicated... I’ve listed all of the players who are either gone (e.g. Molina) or will receive a lesser role (e.g. Davis) in 2011, and I’ve examined whether we should expect an upgrade over 2011’s performance, or not. I didn’t take into account Encarnacion’s shuffle from 3B, DH and 1B since I’m guessing he’ll end up with a similar number of at bats anyway.

Jose Molina

171 AB, 757 OPS, 3 HR, 15 RBI

His replacement

Jeff Mathis: 90 AB, 557 OPS, 2 HR

JP Arencibia: 50 AB, 727 OPS, 4 HR

Travis D’Arnaud: 50 AB, 725 OPS, 2 HR

Verdict:

I think it’s safe to assume that JP will be getting more at bats this season. Last year, he and Molina almost split catching duties, until JP took on a larger role after a few weeks of play. I also suspect we’ll at least catch a glimpse of D’Arnaud. So all in all, I’d be surprise if Mathis gets many at bats. And thankfully so, since he’s quite possibly the worst hitter in the league. But he’ll surely do well in continuing to show JP the ropes on the defensive side of things. Still though, Molina had a good season and while getting JP more at bats will probably lead to a few more home runs, I don’t think the Jays will be better off in the backup Catcher spot next season. But the loss is probably insignificant.

Cory Patterson

317 AB, 665 OPS, 6 HR

His replacement:

Colby Rasmus: 200 AB, 754 OPS, 8 HR

Travis Snider: 117 AB, 730 OPS, 4 HR

Verdict:

Wow! We gave 317 AB to CoPa last season. Overall, he was pretty terrible. There are a few reasons he got so many at bats. Injuries to Davis and lacklustre performance by Snider are obvious reasons. He also got hot mid-summer and I think that bought him a little bit of a longer leash with Farrell. So we should get a really good upgrade over Patterson with more AB’s coming from Rasmus and Snider. Even using Rasmus and Snider’s career stats (which I’m hoping they exceed next year), they’ll give a good boost, and the home runs should be about doubled that of Patterson’s. They should also give a slight improvement in defense.

John McDonald

168 AB, 630 OPS, 2 HR

His replacement:

Luis Valbuena: 100 AB, 630 OPS, 2 HR

Yunel Escobar: 68 AB, 766 OPS, 2 HR

Verdict:

The fan fave, Johnny Mac. Surprisingly, (to me anyways) Valbuena’s career stats are similar to McDonald’s 2011 stats. If Escobar stays healthy all season, he’ll get a few extra at bats as well. Defensively, I don’t see a big difference. McDonald is quite good, but Valbuena and Escobar are capable as well. I won’t miss Johnny Mac on the base paths.

Juan Rivera

247 AB, 666 OPS, 6 HR

His replacement:

Travis Snider: 247 AB, 730 OPS, 9 HR

Verdict:

Juan Rivera had a terrible start to the season last season. He’s better than what his performance with the Jays was last season. Travis Snider’s career norms would be a nice improvement over Rivera’s 2011 with the Jays. If Snider hits like we think he can, then all bets are off. Of course, he could also hit like he did in 2011. Or, of course, Thames or Francisco could win the job.

Aaron Hill

396 AB, 584 OPS, 6 HR

His replacement

Kelly Johnson 396 AB, 784 OPS, 15 HR

Verdict:

Aaron Hill was bad in 2011. Jeff Mathis bad. You could plug almost anyone in there and it would be an upgrade over Hill’s 2011.. I think the fact that Kelly Johnson accepted arbitration is very telling. I believe he feels comfortable at the Rogers Centre and he thinks he could put up really big numbers next season and then get a big payday. I hope he’s right, but I’d be happy if he performed around his career averages.

Rajai Davis

320 AB, 623 OPS, 1 HR

His replacement:

Colby Rasmus: 150 AB, 754 OPS, 6 HR

Verdict:

With the departure of Wells, Davis was given the starting CF job last season. Unfortunately for him and for us, he was injured and was never able to get into a groove. It’s too bad because he was a favourite of mine and I was hoping he would be able to hit like he did in 09. One of the most exciting moments of last season came with his 1st at bat. I might be wrong, but if I recall, he legged out a single, then stole 2nd and 3rd. Barring a trade, he’ll be the 4th OF next season and he should get some at bats against left handed pitching. But I’m taking away 170 AB from him and giving them to Rasmus. Given his poor showing last season, that’ll be a nice upgrade offensively. And Davis will get into plenty of games as a pinch runner, as well.

Mike McCoy

197 AB, 561 OPS, 2 HR

His replacement

Brett Lawrie: 75 AB, 953 OPS, 6 HR

Luis Valbuena: 75 AB, 630 OPS, 1 HR

Verdict:

I’m sure McCoy is a great guy to have in the clubhouse and all, but honestly, I hope he spends more time in Vegas next year. Of course, Valbuena might not be much better, but I think he at least has a bit more power. A full season of Lawrie will help take away some at bats from the McCoy’s and Valbuena’s.

Jayson Nix

136 AB, 554 OPS, 4 HR

His replacement:

Brett Lawrie: 136 AB, 953 OPS, 10 HR

Verdict:

Almost brings a tear to my eye.

DeWayne Wise

32 AB, 500 OPS, 2 HR

His replacement:

Anthony Gose: 32 AB, 700 OPS

Verdict:

I’m just guessing here that Gose will be a September call up.

Adam Loewen

32 AB, 610 OPS, 1 HR

His replacement:

Anthony Gose: 32 AB, 700 OPS

Verdict:

I’m just guessing here that Gose will be a September call up.

Conclusion:

Assuming there are no injuries and no other signings or trades, the Jays should see significant improvements in LF, CF, 3B, 2B, backup IF. We should also hope for an improvement from Lind at 1B and a more consistent Encarnacion at DH. There is always a risk that Bautista takes a step backward, Escobar has an off season and that Lawrie struggles in his 1st full season.

Considering the Jays had the league's 5th best offense, I think it bodes well for next season on the offensive side of things.


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