Quick recap of a couple of Jays moves

by JohnnyG on Dec 31, 2011 11:58 AM EST in Toronto Blue Jays News

The newest Blue Jays pitcher throws a pitch during the 2011 world series (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

As was first speculated in the fanshot yesterday, the Jays actually did complete the deal with 41 year old lefty reliever Darren Oliver. The specific contract details have not seem to be released as of yet, but it does seem to be for a 1 year deal with a team option for the next year.

Oliver looks to feature prominently in the Jays pen has he has had good platoon splits. Not only that, but he will bring the "veteran" presence that people always seem to want to have around. I like the move, and it is moves like this that really in the end help out a bullpen in my opinion. At the moment, we are looking at a bullpen with Santos, Janssen, Oliver, Villanueva and Litsch. There are still two spots that could likely be filled internally or by outside moves. That being said, to me that looks like a very solid pen.

Link to Darren Oliver's baseball reference page for stats.

The second move the Jays made seem to cause a little bit of annoyance in the people I talked to. The Jays signed Aaron Laffey. Laffey was non-tendered by the Royals earlier this month. He spent the first 4 years of his MLB career with the Indians before bouncing around in 2011 between the Mariners and the Yankees. Quite simply Laffey isn't very good. A soft tossing lefty that can't really miss bats. The logic goes that he wanted to compete for a rotation spot and the Jays offer him the best chance to do that? In my opinion if he beats out Drabek, Cecil, McGowan or Henderson we are in for a world of hurt come the start of the season.

Link to Aaron Laffey's baseball reference page for stats.

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Laffey?

What the heck? LOOGY at best, no chance he’s rotation material.

If Laffey gets starts over Alvarez and McGowan…oh boy.

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by Woodman663 on Dec 31, 2011 12:05 PM EST reply actions

I think you're right

in that there really is no chance he’s in the rotation. He is signed to a minor league contract, so there isn’t the issue they had with Jo-Jo last year, not having any options, so they won’t feel inclined to keep him up. I think the Jays promised him he would start – whether in the minors or the majors – and would be in Spring Training competing for a spot. But we would need 3 injuries before he actually had a shot at getting a spot.

He essentially fills the hole Brad Mills left – a minor league pitcher who may get 20 innings filling in for short term injuries. If you look at his numbers his career numbers are significantly better than Mills, so I have a hard time seeing this as a problem.

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Dec 31, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

Not worth worrying about

Teams need minor league depth too. Someone has to pitch at AAA. At best, Laffey is an emergency fill-in for a spot start or too. Signing Oliver is a solid move, pen needed a lefty.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Dec 31, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

Laffey is our new Brad Mills toy

by Steve02 on Dec 31, 2011 12:06 PM EST reply actions

Not the new Jo-Jo?

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by Woodman663 on Dec 31, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions

Let's hope not!

Laffey is on a 2-way. Jo-Jo wasn’t

by Steve02 on Dec 31, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

shudders

+1 is only good if you actually rec the post

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 31, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

and Jo-Jo was the new dana eveland!

by Sniderlover on Dec 31, 2011 4:59 PM EST up reply actions

One who didn’t get us Ronald Uviedo

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by Minor Leaguer on Dec 31, 2011 7:39 PM EST up reply actions

I still love that trade.. In AA I trust <3

by Joey Kirby on Dec 31, 2011 8:31 PM EST up reply actions

I believe Oliver was mlbtraderumors #1 FA LH Reliever

But I can’t find the article. I did find this tidbit tho : “Darren Oliver’s wife has given her husband the go-ahead to sign with whichever team has the best shot at a World Series title, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick.”

by Steve02 on Dec 31, 2011 12:11 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Sidenote

BBB set a new record for visits this month, topping 260,000 for the first time.

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by Woodman663 on Dec 31, 2011 12:13 PM EST reply actions

Huzzah!

Ball.

by Casusby on Dec 31, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions

in December

lol

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions

it's not that odd, actually

I’ve seen more SBNation blogs have peak months in December. Perhaps more people visit these sort of sites during the holiday season.

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by Woodman663 on Dec 31, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

interesting

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions

During the season people can have their Blue Jay fix by watching a game everyday.

During the off-season they need us!

"And I'm like forget Yuuuuuu"

by jays182 on Dec 31, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

I think this is true

I am the Walrus

by yleviticus on Dec 31, 2011 8:27 PM EST up reply actions

It makes sense.

Its hot stove season. People come to check all the rumors multiple times a day. During the season there aren’t trade rumors and FA signings to get excited about.

by Matthew Mueller on Dec 31, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

Darvishopalooza

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions

that too

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions

I think the other two relievers will be

Luis “David Purcey look-alike according to SB Nation” Perez and Joel Carreno.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 12:27 PM EST reply actions

I think the potential is there for a good pen

Potential to be better than the Red Sox, Yankees or Rays? We may still be fighting for 3rd in that list…

by Steve02 on Dec 31, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions

ordinal rankings don't matter

plus the Sox lost the best reliever in baseball in 2011 and may be converting Bard to starter

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions

If his health improves

Bailey should help that bullpen out.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

good peripherals

but pitching in Fenway is going to help correct that unsightly xFIP-ERA gap

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions

I meant FIP-ERA gap

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

I think xFIP-ERA gap is correct

His career ERA is 2.07
His career FIP is 2.74
His career xFIP is 3.40

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions

career .237 BABIP

yeah that’s not going to continue

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions

Average BABIP for relief pitchers is ~.277 +/- .034, so it might not rise that much. Though, playing in Fenway certainly could bump it up.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions

Out of curiousity

Where does the +/- 0.034 come from?

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

Standard deviation. I know it’s not what one should use, but I just felt like adding it anyway.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions

No, I understand that it’s the std. dev, I meant where did the number come from – ie, source?

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions

I just used Excel.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions

I got the numbers from Fangraphs, and calculated the standard deviation.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

Okay

For what time period, and was the criteria qualified RP, or all RP? Weighted by inings? (Sorry, I’m just curious about this)

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions

It was just for last year

For 2006-2011, I got:

.283 +/- .018

My mistake.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

that sounds more like what I've heard

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions

The point I was making was that RP BABIP is usually lower than SP BABIP.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions

that makes sense

but not sub-.240… that’s just ridiculous

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions

Unless he pitches on the level of Joe Nathan and Carlos Marmol.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions

At least

If he wants to keep it around .250

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions

And it was criteria qualified RP. Pretty much Min IP = Qualified for RP between 2006-2011

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks!

Interestiing

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 1:08 PM EST up reply actions

has anyone done a study

on whether or not LOOGY/ROOGY guys can hold opposing BABIPs lower than league average? intuitively, they probably can, but intuitively better pitchers post lower BABIPs

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions

I think the difficulty would be classifying “LOOGYs” and “ROOGYs” from other relief pitchers. I’m having an easy time finding ROOGYs, but strangely not as much with LOOGYs.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 1:26 PM EST up reply actions

interesting

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

For instance

Noted “LOOGY” Craig Breslow has actually faced more RHB (708 TBF) than LHB (460TBF).

A ROOGY like Chad Bradford, on the other hand, has faced much more RHB (1251 TBF) than LHB (574 TBF) between 2002 and 2009.

Interesting.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

well

that’s probably just a byproduct of many more RHB in MLB than LHB

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

But again that makes the classification process difficult. I guess you could choose LH relief pitchers that face a smaller RHB:LHB ratio than most LH relief pitchers?

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

IIRC

On average, the split was ~57% RHB and 43% LHB over the last couple years. Maybe you should look in terms of variance from this

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 1:41 PM EST up reply actions

What are the splits in each league?

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 1:53 PM EST up reply actions

I have the numbers saved from a previous study!

All numbers for RHB, PA

2011 MLB: 57%
2010 MLB: 58.3%
2009 MLB: 55.9%

2011 AL: 53.5%
2010 AL: 55.0%
2009 AL: 55.7%

2011 NL: 60.1%
2010 NL: 61.1%
2009 NL: 56.1%

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks!

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

I just realized that switch hitters would probably skew the data for number of RHBs faced by a LHP.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

Wouldn't it skew both ways?

I don’t think it’s a big issue…if there’s a couple of switch hittiers due up, a manager is unlikely to put in a LOOGY or ROOGY, I’d imagine

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

Unless

Switch hitters can also have platoon splits, and sometimes you want to intentionally turn them around a certain way…though using a reliever with big splits kinda negates this. So I still wouldn’t worry about it

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions

should be, IMO

I hope Oliver isn’t strictly a LOOGY – he’s (much) better against LHB, but he’s really not terrible against RHB. going on 2011 stats, though, Perez was dominant against LHB but very poor against RHB, so I’d like to see Perez as LOOGY and Oliver as LHB-slanted setup guy.

and Carreno has done nothing to show he shouldn’t be in the ’pen out of Spring Training

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions

I always liked Oliver when he played for the Angels (that’s when I remember him most). Always looked like their best reliever for them. Quite consistent from what I saw.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, he's been very good since joining the Angels

but he still shouldn’t be facing too many righties, especially if the Jays hope to maximize his value then flip him

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 31, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions

I think this will most likely happen..

We also have Chad Beck and Danny Farquhar though, AND Trystan Magnuson..this will be interesting.

by Joey Kirby on Dec 31, 2011 8:33 PM EST up reply actions

Draft pick

So we lose a first rounder for this signing??

by Fanfromnigeria on Dec 31, 2011 12:56 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Nope

They just acquire a supplemental 1st round pick. Jays lose nothing.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

Snakeface

How does Oliver compare to Down??

by Fanfromnigeria on Dec 31, 2011 1:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Older, and more pitches to work with than Downs.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions

Darren Oliver Facts

Darren Oliver’s pro career started in 1988 with GCL Rangers. Five players on that team made the Majors: Jose Hernandez (played in 1587 games), Darren Oliver (654), Jose Oliva (89), Tony Scruggs (5), Jonathan Hurst (10).

In his first MLB appearance (9/1/93), Darren Oliver relieved Tom Henke and intentionally walked the Red Sox’ Mike Greenwell before being replaced by Mike Schooler.

In Darren Oliver’s 4th MLB game, he pitched a perfect 1.1 IP in relief against Jays facing John Olerud, Ed Sprague, Carlos Delgado (in his 21st MLB game), and Pat Borders.

Darren Oliver has had 577 teammates in his career.

Darren Oliver is 7 steps away from Connie Mack.

On July 31, 1988, he was traded from the Rangers along with Fernando Tatis and Mark Little to the St. Louis Cardinals for Royce Clayton and Todd Stottlemyre. On December 12, 2001, he was traded straight up by the Rangers to the Red Sox for Carl Everett.

Darren Oliver played 3 separate stints with the Texas Rangers.

Darren Oliver’s dad Bob Oliver’s first two MLB at bats was to pinch hit for Roberto Clemente and got out both times.

Darren Oliver hit .274/.303/.329 over 84 PA in 1999 with the Cardinals, gained 0.7 WAR as a batter.

Follow me @Minor_Leaguer

by Minor Leaguer on Dec 31, 2011 1:03 PM EST reply actions