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Jays Offer Kyle Drabek for Matt Garza?

MLB Daily Dish has a story that the Jay have offered Kyle Drabek for Matt Garza (sorry my tablet wouldn't let me link to the story). I do hate the idea of trading Drabek after a bad year, I'd like to think we trust our evaluations of a player enough to ride out a poor season. If we really thought he was good, why would we let a bad year change our minds. On the other hand Garza had a good year in 2011 and has been good his whole career. Garza is 28, Drabek 24.

So 2 questions:

Would you do this trade if you were Alex?

Would you do it if you were the Cubs?

Poll
If you were the Jays would you make this trade?
Yes
1505 votes
No
657 votes

2162 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 291 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Comments

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Straight-up?

Yeah, pretty sure it makes sense to do it…even if Drabek hadn’t melted down in 2011, he was only a borderline B+/A- type prospect, and to get two years of Garza, for me that’s something you do. THen when you factor in the lost 2011, yep.

But I doubt that the Cubs would do that straight up.

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 7:22 PM EST reply actions  

Straight up?

Maybe.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 7:37 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

If i was Anthopoulos I would do it

If i was Theo i wouldnt do it
If I was me… I dont think I would.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 7:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

“If I was me… I dont think I would.” Why?

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 7:47 PM EST up reply actions  

his 2011 was spectacular

the rest of his career is good-not-great. Only 2 years left, I’d rather gamble on Drabek.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 8:32 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Agreed -- for trade BJs would have to add more

I agree, this would be a good straight up trade for Blue Jays (a prospect for a proven thing) as it adds stability to a starting rotation that is potentially very good but realistically has a down side risk.

Likewise, I agree the Sox should want more, another pitcher prospect or perhaps a left fielder (hint, hint). Or perhaps a pair or trio.

by Vocalmedia on Jan 3, 2012 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Only straight up.

A proven starter for Drabek who could still, honestly, go either way is okay with me. The Halladay trade would actually amount to having Garza, D’Arnaud, and Gose in our organization… happy with that. Garza’s entering his prime is a good thing.

"Subdue the enemy without fighting" ~ Sun Tzu

by kdlishus on Dec 31, 2011 7:44 PM EST reply actions  

Pikachu

Condolences – this is a bad time of the year for wondering who you are.

However, I’d do that trade in a heartbeat. Drabek MAY end up being great – however – we’ve nearly a dozen guys who also MAY be great and have actually delivered something to keep us encouraged. If we didn’t have the pitching depth in our minors I might not (but I’d only be keeping him out of desperation) – but at this time in his career Drabek is a long shot.

I’d be very surprised if Theo would even consider that trade for more than a millisecond. In fact, to me it would show him that the Jay’s weren’t seriously interested in Garza.

by Mylegacy on Dec 31, 2011 7:49 PM EST reply actions  

Straight up? Epstein says no I wager. Hell, he saying no is almost a no brainer… at least throw Jenkins in.

by Parallex on Dec 31, 2011 7:52 PM EST reply actions  

Interesting…Though I’d be surprised if Epstein did this. I thought he was looking for more. In my mind, I think it would be a fair trade. But I think eventually the Cubs would win the trade (unless, of course, Garza pushed the Jays into the playoffs).

by REMO on Dec 31, 2011 8:01 PM EST reply actions  

I’d even be OK if the Jays threw in Cooper. Aren’t the Cubs looking for a 1B as well?

by REMO on Dec 31, 2011 8:10 PM EST up reply actions  

This makes sense

Cooper has upside potential for Cubs with his live bat and appears road-blocked in Toronto. So a good addition to trade for both teams. Add in Thames or Snider and Cubs should jump for sure.

Jays can use saved salary in bidding for Cespedes, who they really should get (along with a lot of other teams).

by Vocalmedia on Jan 3, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Please No to spending money on Cespedes.

He’s old enough that he’s unlikely to improve much on what he currently is, and the Cuban pro league is probably AA/hiA in level, so I’m not convinced that he could help the Jays this year. Additionally, the Jays already have two outfielders who are more proven at the MLB level in Thames and Snider and the Jays still have to figure out which of those two are going to play.

by siggian on Jan 3, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh and

Both Thames and Snider are significantly younger than Cespedes (2 and 3 years respectively)

by siggian on Jan 3, 2012 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I tend to agree

Especially if the Tigers are involved and dangling Jacob Turner

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 9:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you're underrating Garza

Or rating prospects. I mean, he’s not as good as last year, but he’s still an above average or better starter, and that’s pretty valuable.

Now, I dunno that I’d trade away Jacob Turner. That said, Detroit is good now, and if you’re ever going to make a “going for it in the present” move, it makes sense for them

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 10:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Ugh

Overrating prospects, that

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 10:10 PM EST up reply actions  

not really

the trade market is kinda crazy right now. Top prospects are being traded for mediocre starters like Gio, which makes no sense to me.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:10 PM EST up reply actions  

How is he mediocre?

Anything aside from BB/9?

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:11 PM EST up reply actions  

So one stat makes a guy mediocre?

Where do the rest of his stats rank? Like K/9?

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:17 PM EST up reply actions  

his K% was tied for 17th in MLB
his BB% was tied for the worst in MLB

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:19 PM EST up reply actions  

17th isn't too shabby.

Make it K/9 and he bumps up to 11th.

I think he’s T-30 in HR/9, if I counted correctly.

19th in ERA.

38th in FIP.

T-35th in fWAR (too lazy too look up rWAR)

He ONLY struggles with walks. Having one fault is hardly mediocre. He’s a very good pitcher.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:28 PM EST up reply actions  

K/9 is less accurate than K%

it helps guys who give up lots of walks, letting them face more batters.

He’s a Carl Pavano-type of pitcher. Awful at one thing, good at everything else, and a mid-rotation starter.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Career FIP is over 4 with LOB% being higher than his career.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:13 PM EST up reply actions  

His FIP is that high largely due to being brought up seemingly two early.

It’s 3.71 for the past 2 seasons while he’s been a fulltime starter.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:20 PM EST up reply actions  

But that's still incredibly valuable

There’s 20MM+ of surplus value in that

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:23 PM EST up reply actions  

That's ot my argument

I wouldn’t have given up what Washington did…that was too much for me. My point was, he’s being talked about like he’s crap, and he’s not

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:28 PM EST up reply actions  

We can split hairs – mediocre for me means average or slightly worse. Gonzalez is already above average, and only figures to get better, not worse

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:31 PM EST up reply actions  

It's not splitting hairs.

Mediocre is a terrible word to describe Gonzalez. He’s like a successful version of Brandon Morrow.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Ugh

Not sure I agree with this. Morrow’s peripherals are much, much better. Especially this year, his second starting.

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed,

Gio has the peripherals going against, Morrow with. Statisticians would cringe at this.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:36 PM EST up reply actions  

High K, High BB pitcher

They both fit that profile, whether or not Morrow is better. Gonzalez is having more “success” as I put it by having his ERA outperform his FIP instead of the other way around for Morrow. I am a big believer in Morrow. I think another full season out of Gonzalez will look a bit more like Morrow’s 2011.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

GOOD!

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:53 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah, they're both "miss a lot of bats" guys

but that’s where the comparisons end… Morrow strikes out (many) more guys and, as a starter, has walked quite a few less

by benk on Jan 1, 2012 12:04 PM EST up reply actions  

That's what I meant.

I didn’t mean to portray them as the same player, but they have similar attributes.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Dude's LOB% is high

And he pitches in the best ballpark in the MLB and still is .8 ERA away from league average. Sure that’s a lot but not when you factor in those 2.

I consider the word mediocre to mean “average” not “below average”

If we got him no way would he have bumped down Morrow or Romero.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:35 PM EST up reply actions  

"Of moderate or low quality"

Definition here.

If you didn’t mea it as below average, fine, I accept that. By common usage of mediocre is below average to average. Say 40-50 on 0-100 scale, normally distributed with mean 50

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:38 PM EST up reply actions  

But that's the thing

He’s not. His results have already been above average, and he’s very young

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Results yes

But how he gets them is scary.

Walks a LOT of people, then somehow strands more than he should on base (LOB%).

Just like how Morrow is underplaying himself, Gio is overplaying himself.

He’d make a decent #3-4 in the AL East.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:43 PM EST up reply actions  

His LOB% is probably due to a combination of his K rate and GB%

And his stadium helped. But having a good LOB% shouldn’t be held against someone as much as you’re making it seem. Sometimes it’s just something a pitcher does.

  1. would be too low a number on any team except the Angels, Rays, and Phillies, probably. Probably another team, too, but it’s late.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Its luck. Straight luck

His career LOB% is way lower than what hes pitching right now. Its not normal.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:47 PM EST up reply actions  

All pitchers don’t have the same LOB%. Better once strand more runners. Gio’s is lower, and should regress out of Oakland, but not necessarily right to league average. And we’re talking about FIP anyway, which means this doesn;’ matter

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Okay but what ignore all the warning signs?

Nothing except ERA and ballpark have been working for him, every smart person in baseball (Like Keith Law and stuff) think Gio is over performing.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Strikeouts don't count anymore?

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:52 PM EST up reply actions  

As a hitter, that's fine

But for pitchers, a k means no balls in play, so it’s definitely not. Just as a GB is better than a FB

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:54 PM EST up reply actions  

All a strikeout is

is a ball not in play.

By this definition Morrow is Cy Young

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:56 PM EST up reply actions  

aaaaand I'm done responding to this guy.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Simple as this:

On a ball in play, bad things can happen (single, double, etc). On a K, there is no risk of a baserunner. This is the very basis for FIP, DIPS, etc.

You know better than this

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:04 AM EST up reply actions  

They shouldn't be.

They’re out that generally don’t allow much in the possibility of being a productive out, as other outs can.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, his IFFB% has been decently good and improved a little this season as well.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:52 PM EST up reply actions  

decently good is great

Until you face the Red Sox’s and Yankee’s on a regular basis is hitters parks.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Dude, I'm just talking about his infield fly ball % with decently good.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Until...

You face guys twice as good

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:56 PM EST up reply actions  

the formatting has been messing with me all night. should say four.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:48 PM EST up reply actions  

serious question

I thought IFFB was largely luck and subject to big variation?

by benk on Jan 1, 2012 12:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Gonzalez past 3 seasons

9.9%, 8.9%, 10.5%.

I’m sure if it spikes up and down sharply, there may be luck involved, but he’s sustaining a good % over a long period of time. Morrow also has a VERY similar %, and his vary even less from season to season. I think for some pitchers, there is a skill involved over luck.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

well

I’d think intuitively, “missing bat” pitchers get more IFFBs since they pitch higher in the zone than “low walks” guys. no idea if that’s actually true though

by benk on Jan 1, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know, but that doesn't sound like it's very luck induced in that case

at least if that’s true about swing and miss pitchers.

On a similar note, Hellickson, despite a disgustingly low K rate, had a great swing/miss%, and had a massive IFFB% (16.2).

For the most part, with some exceptions, it does look like high swing and miss pitchers do have good IFFB%.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 2:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't know if this link will work

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=c%2c50%2c113&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&players=0

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 2:05 PM EST up reply actions  

He's better than average.

Just look at the numbers. Come on, dude.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Why can't he just be good?

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Because too many things go against it

There is a reason he got the prospect package he got traded for him but there is also a reason Billy Beane sold on him.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Hardly anything but his walk rate goes against it

and he’s been steadily improving in that area.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:53 PM EST up reply actions  

so has the league average pitcher

so it kinda cancels out

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I can't tell what this is a response to.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:55 PM EST up reply actions  

just press the up button

anyways, his BB% has been slowly dropping, but the overall quality of pitching has been getting better as well. It cancels out.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, there is

His team is screwed in the enar future until they get a new stadium, so he’s cutting payroll and trading current assets for futurue ones. That has nothing to do with Gio

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:53 PM EST up reply actions  

He kept others that go against that theme

My main point is he wouldn’t have been successful enough in Toronto to require a similar package.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Huh?

Toronto didn’t give up a similar package as Washington because they overpaid, relative to his value. That has to do with how good Gio is, and how much the cost was. We’re just talking about how good he is, so you can’t use the trade value in a vacuum

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Well I don't really hate Gio that much

I just wake up every morning thanking to Gods that he isn’t a Jay.

by Mike Andrew on Jan 1, 2012 12:01 AM EST up reply actions  

He's much better than mediocre.

He was one of the best pitchers in the AL in 2011. It was only his second full season in the majors, and he’s been making steady progress.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn’t go quite that far (one of the best). But above average, and that’s very valuable

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Just look at 2011.

He was one of the best in the AL.

Ranks 18-WAR, 17-IP, 4-K/9, 42 (last)-BB/9, 10-HR/9, 15-GB%, 10-ERA, 17-FIP

Not too shabby.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:38 PM EST up reply actions  

See, there's actually something wrong with having the highest BB% in your league

Really good pitchers tend to have higher LOB% than normal, but really good pitchers don’t give up 4 walks per 9 innings.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:41 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

That's not necessarily true though

Randy Johnson, to age 30, never really got his BB/9 to 4, much less under, and he still put up 20 WAR roughly. It certainly means you have to do a lot of other things better (K more, more GB, etc), but would can still walk guys and get good results

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:46 PM EST up reply actions  

oh come on

you never use Randy Johnson for a comparison, ever.

Anyways, you know that in 1993, when he pitched ~250 innings and walked less than 4, his fWAR was 7.1.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Not a comp

The point is, a pitcher can overcome a high BB% if they do other things really well – really high K%, GB% etc

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:53 PM EST up reply actions  

yes

I’m not saying he’s a failure. I just don’t think he’s a star. His Ks and GBs make up for his terrible BB rate, making him a mid-rotation starter.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 12:02 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think he's a star

I do think he’s above average, probably a top 60 pitcher in MLB in terms of value delivered (function of workload and quality)

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:12 AM EST up reply actions  

If he came to the AL East

He would get hammered harder than AJ

by Mike Andrew on Jan 1, 2012 12:14 AM EST up reply actions  

not likely

he’d probably pitch around his xFIP, which again, is good but not great. his GB rate isn’t bad either

by benk on Jan 1, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

what I mean to say is

it’s unlikely he’s going to continue to strand runners like that. His ERA is going to start looking like his DIPS, and more likely his SIERA and xFIP rather than his FIP

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:46 PM EST up reply actions  

When you combine Ks, GBs, and IFFBs, it's possible

Probably won’t drop a ton.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Its "possible"

doesn’t sound too affirmative.

The matter of the fact is, if/when his H/9 would go up even 1 in the AL East, his walk rate would stay the same and LOB% would come crashing down to combine to kill his ERA.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:59 PM EST up reply actions  

No one said great.

You said mediocre, which is wrong.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:29 PM EST up reply actions  

jeez

alright then. I take back the word “mediocre”. “Not good as many make him out to be” would be what I should have said.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I honestly don't hear a ton of Gonzalez love.

And you’re significantly underrating him. Why?

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:59 PM EST up reply actions  

And he also has the highest LOB% over those 2 seasons

Keith Law compared him to AJ Burnett.

Hes good, but by no means is he great. Pitching in the skydome itself would have created some fun, not to mention the tougher competition.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:26 PM EST up reply actions  

You've already forgotten how good AJ Burnett was?

He did pitch with the Blue Jays. Do you remember that?

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

Was just writing this. 4 cost controlled year of AJ Burnett was very valuable

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:32 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah

Burnett didn’t have highest BB% in MLB, had a better GB% than Gio has, and pitched against tougher opponents

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I know Sandals was talking about as a Jay, but I meant while still with Marlins, for whom he was cost controlled.

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:40 PM EST up reply actions  

his numbers relative to league were still far better than Gio's numbers

considering he was pitching in the (end of the) steroid era

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:44 PM EST up reply actions  

He's only had 2 full seasons.

He is still improving. 2011 Gio Gonzalez is not a finished product.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 12:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Of course

but you can say the same about any pitcher under ~28

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 12:04 AM EST up reply actions  

What's the aging curve for pitchers like anyways?

And yeah Noah is like 2.7BB/9 and 9 K/9 and pitches 102 MPH at age 18 so where would he rank as a “finished product”

by Mike Andrew on Jan 1, 2012 12:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Syndergaard does pitch 102 (meaning sitting there). He likely has not thrown 100 either, Shi Davidi reported he hit 101 pitching in Vancouver, but that gun is known to be juiced a couple MPH. He can touch high 90s, possibly 100, but sits low to mid 90s

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Ugh, New Years fail

Syndergaard does NOT pitch 102

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions  

https://twitter.com/#!/ShiDavidi/status/104377492223172608

I cant hear you over this Shi Davidi tweet reporting he hit 102 on the gun ;)

Hes only 18.

by Mike Andrew on Jan 1, 2012 12:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Alright, you got me!

It was 102, not 101. However, the fact remains, that stadium gin is known to be juiced, and the likelihood was it was actually high 90s. And again, he touches there, not sits there. One pitch (literally, not one pitch type) does not define a pitcher

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:15 AM EST up reply actions  

I dont know about juiced

The Jays would probably unjuice it for proper readings.

Either way 102 is damn impressive, IDC how juiced the gun is.

by Mike Andrew on Jan 1, 2012 12:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Lol, no

It’s to thier advantage for people to think their guys are throwing faster, and it makes fans ooh and ahh.

to be fair – it’s not just the Jays. It’s widely done across ballparks, esp. minor league

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:19 AM EST up reply actions  

I dunno

Maybe. Maybe more than 2 MPH. Regardless, he’s a great power prospect, possibly elite fastball. Hopefully has a slower 2 seamer with good movement. Still needs to work on secondaries.

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Aging Curve

Lot of debate. MGL over the Book claims his reasearch shows pitchers actually don’t improve much from the time they hit the majors (partially due to injury risk, it’s not just a matter of quality), but that’s not widely accepted at this point. The common wisdom now is there’s slight improvement for pitchers until 26ish which is the peak, and then decline. Whereas hitter you see more of a buildup through about age 27-28

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:14 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Okay thanks a lot

I must have forgot pitchers age differently as I never asked myself these questions :P

by Mike Andrew on Jan 1, 2012 12:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Okay, but Gonzalez's numbers are improving.

It’s not a debate. The numbers have been going in positive directions. You can say that a lot of pitchers aren’t a finished product, but not so many have the numbers to support it like Gonzalez does.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 12:08 AM EST up reply actions  

real trade would be

Drabek, Jimenez and Beck or Jenkins

by jensan on Dec 31, 2011 9:01 PM EST reply actions  

Straight up?

I’d go for it.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.

by Frag on Dec 31, 2011 9:05 PM EST reply actions  

Really?

People would trade a potential ace for 2 years of Garza? If this kid ever figures out how to throw strikes he’s going to be tough to hit. Does anyone remember a guy named Ricky Romero? I can say that Drabek has better pitches than Romero (except for his changeup) it’s just that he can’t control it yet. I don’t understand why everyone wants instant gratification over patience.

by B-R_O-C on Dec 31, 2011 9:47 PM EST reply actions  

I argue the changeup

Is the most important pitch is baseball.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 10:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Untrue

The strike is the most important pitch. Drabek is proof of that (so far).

"Subdue the enemy without fighting" ~ Sun Tzu

by kdlishus on Jan 1, 2012 11:30 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

as the saying goes

the best pitch in baseball is strike one

by benk on Jan 1, 2012 12:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Everyone talks about Drabek having great stuff

But I’m beginning to wonder. Beyond the control problems this year, his stuff did not strike me as overpowering. Now, maybe the two are inextricably linked such that the conclusion is unwarranted, but I thought of him more as a mid rotation guy, not top of rotation. Also, in the minors, he hasn’t had an elite strike out rate since 2009 in the FSL. In AA, his K rate was average/good, though there could be a lot of reasons for this.

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 10:19 PM EST up reply actions  

His stuff didn't seem to overpower in the majors

10 H/9, maybe its due to his lack of secondary stuff.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 10:42 PM EST up reply actions  

questions: what is “stuff”? is it simply an unquantifiable feeling about a player?

by Justin Azevedo on Jan 2, 2012 5:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Generally means the quality of his pitches…how many he has, how good they are, how well he can command them and throw quality strikes.

by MjwW on Jan 2, 2012 6:18 AM EST up reply actions  

And to address thes econd part of what you asked

Some of it is quantifiable…where does his fastball sit (velocity wise), what kind of break does he have on a curveball, how much velocity separation between fastball and change-up.

Some of it is less quantifiable…what kind of natural movement on his fastball (this is measurable using Pitch F/X, but for minor leaguers it’s somethong you scout), how good are his mechanics, does he maintain the same arm slot, etc

by MjwW on Jan 2, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Whoops

Those are two seperate links, s/b on two separate lines.

by MjwW on Jan 2, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

whoops on me anyway

but I actually meant in things like ERA and double plays turned, if one chose to use those statistics

by benk on Jan 2, 2012 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

well, to defend his only "good" Minors numbers

remember he was only 22 (I think) and had missed a year of development for TJ surgery, so he was basically 21.

besides, I think most people had him tagged as “number 2 starter” ceiling, not “ace” (though I hate those terms)

by benk on Jan 1, 2012 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure

I still consider a #2 type as more topof rotation than mid-rotation.

As for the age thing, sure. That’s a little young for AA, but really I don’t think that explains it. The TJ surgery was in late 2007 or 2008, by the beginning of 2010 he should have been as close to back as he’s going to get (usually 18 mo after surgery)

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 1:17 PM EST up reply actions  

The point though is that an arm like Garza’s in the rotation puts us a few steps closer to competing in the next two years, where as Drabek might take as long to put things together (or might never). It’s trading potential value later for value now, and I’d argue that the Jays pitching prospect depth is deep enough to make it a viable trade.

by dexfarkin on Jan 1, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions  

potential ace? no way. even when he was a well-regarded prospect he was only considered to have a #2 ceiling. and that was before he completely imploded this past year.

it’s more like trading a guy whose best case scenario is turning into Garza but has a 50% chance or more of busting, for Garza.

by Jono411 on Jan 2, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Good move

I like Drabek but with what people are giving up in trades for starters I think that Garza fir Drabek straight up would be a good trade. I would think that Theo would want more though but Drabek does have a lot of potential so maybe he will bite

by jimmyf17 on Dec 31, 2011 10:13 PM EST reply actions  

I'm shocked there are nearly 100 people already saying they wouldn't do this trade.

A proven good starter for one who has most recently failed miserably. If selling a guy as low as Drabek is gets your Garza, that’s a steal.

For those of you against this trade, if you were to trade Drabek for another pitcher straight up, who would you need to get back? Also, where is this confidence in Drabek coming from? He hasn’t exactly been a stud even throughout his minor league career.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 31, 2011 11:10 PM EST reply actions  

I just don't like the idea of selling low/buying high

And Garza’s numbers in TB are far less exciting than his 2011 numbers

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:17 PM EST up reply actions  

IMO

If you get Garza for Drabek, then you’re not doing that though. I’d be happy if Drabek ended up being as good as Garza, sure you give up 6 years of control for 2, but you get a lot more certainty and a lot less risk. There’s a lot of value in that

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:22 PM EST up reply actions  

We don´t have 6more years of Drabek… in my opinion

"Touch ´em all, Joe!"

by jaysfanfromeurope on Dec 31, 2011 11:23 PM EST up reply actions  

What do you mean?

He has less than 1 year service time..only 119. So if he started in MLB next year and stayed, in 5 years he’d only have 5y119d, and one more year of control

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:25 PM EST up reply actions  

wow

you’re right. He’s a FA after 2017

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:26 PM EST up reply actions  

At the earliest

If he spends less than 2 months in the MLB this year, then it’ll be later. Or if bounces around the next two years and spends less than 8 months total.

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Though

He may be out of options after 2012. Not sure if they had to blow an option in 2010

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes

But if he was on 40 man before 2010, they would have optioned him at the beginning of the 2010 season

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Alright, looked this up

Phillies never added him to 40 man, from what I see. He was drafted in 2006, so only needed to be added before 2010 rule 5, and he was added in 2010, and wasn’t optioned back down.

So 2011 was option 1, meaning they have options for 2012 and 2013.

Right now, he can become a free agent no earlier than after 2017. If he spends less than about 8 months in the big leagues in the nexy two years, but more than 2, he’ll be a free agent after 2018. If its less than about 2 months in the next two years, he’ll only be eligible after 2019. Of course, if he only spends 2 months in the bigs in the next two year, when he becomes a FA probably doesn’t matter.

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:08 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

rec'

Cause I learned so much at your expense :)

by Mike Andrew on Jan 1, 2012 12:09 AM EST up reply actions  

not sure how much value is in the certainty

For his 3 years with the Rays he only averaged 2.53 fWAR per season.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 31, 2011 11:24 PM EST up reply actions  

1) The 2.53 fWAR is probably a floor (barring injury), you can’t ignore last year even if you discount it.
2) I meant strictly realtive to Drabek

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Drabek might be lucky to have average any three consecutive years together to make that number.

I haven’t read all the way down the thread yet, but his minor league numbers aren’t fantastic, ace number one starter numbers. I thought this guy was overrated when the trade went down, and he’s just flat out crapped himself in 2011. I’m not seeing a massive upside to him.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 12:05 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm banking on his velocity and movement

If he never becomes an average starter, so be it. But if he does, you’ve got him under control for 6 years.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 12:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Except in 61.2 innings at A+ 2009, he's never had an FIP under the 3.80s

That was also the only time BY FAR his strikeouts were dominant (no other time over mid-7s/9). Don’t get why he’d be any better in the majors.

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 12:14 AM EST up reply actions  

You don't have to

I’ve already told you that I’m banking on his stuff, not his numbers

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 12:17 AM EST up reply actions  

But why?

If it doesn’t work in the minors, why would it against the best hitters?

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 12:17 AM EST up reply actions  

AAA Las Vegas is a terrible measuring stick

And the other minors numbers arent that impressive due to his complete lack of control.

by Mike Andrew on Jan 1, 2012 12:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Not just AAA Las Vegas

New Hampshire in 2010
Reading in 2009

There’s a patter here that is somewhat worrisome

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:21 AM EST up reply actions  

We don't know this

We know what a few public sources have reported, some of whom would never have seen him and are going on third party info.

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Which may be out of date

They may be passing on things they’ve heard, etc etc…I’m just saying, I;m ver wary of the public info we hear, you never know how much of it is just a couple people’s info passed around and around, like a gae of telephone

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:27 AM EST up reply actions  

And I apologize

My typing has gone to Hell

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:28 AM EST up reply actions  

But larger picture

You’re right, the industry likes his stuff. I’m not disputing that. Just saying that what we go off is usually little bits ans pieces of publi info, some of it well out of date

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:24 AM EST up reply actions  

If I knew, I would be a scout or a pitching coach or something

I don’t know, but I know for sure that velocity and movement are damn important for pitchers, and Drabek has both

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 12:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Actually its more..

1-control
2-movemnet
3-release point/deception
4-velocity

by Hyepwrd on Jan 2, 2012 5:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I know…I was just stating the key factors in order to add to your point. Seems like Kyle has everything but control. Unfortunately, its the most important factor—but, luckily, also the one that is easiest to improve.

by Hyepwrd on Jan 6, 2012 6:12 PM EST up reply actions  

From what I understand

In 2010, at least, the Jays may have limited his reperatoire to focus on certain tings. I do agree though, it’s a bit of a red flag and I’ve often wondered why it’s not better. Scouts consider that he has very good stuff, but it hasn;t shwon up yet

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Well, technically it would be selling low because Drabek crapped his pants in 2011

but getting a pitcher like Garza is not a return that you get when you sell anyone at their lowest value, unless it’s a top player, which Drabek is not.

I asked a question in my initial post that you kind of deflected and didn’t answer. Maybe you can address this now:

For those of you against this trade, if you were to trade Drabek for another pitcher straight up, who would you need to get back?

What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward! 
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Drabek was a top player less than a year ago

It’s silly that one year can completely devoid a player of his value. Trading Drabek right now makes no sense since 1) low value and 2) the return will be underwhelming to the point that it would be more resourceful to not trade him.

I don’t know exactly which player I would need to get back for Drabek. I just don’t think it’s Garza, since a very similar player like Edwin Jackson is available in the FA market

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 6:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't understand how Garza is an underwhelming return.

I also don’t think Drabek has done anything to deserve those rankings. But whatever. We’re not going to agree on this. It’s all good.

What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward! 
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 6:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I have to agree with Sandals here

You’re missing the point. Let’s just use arbitrary values here.

Let’s assume that Garza has $20M in surplus value.
Let’s assume that Drabek was worth $20M last year too – if he were a free agent, he’s get a $20M bonus to sign, is what I mean.
Now let’s say that Drabek is only worth $10M – because there’s a 50% that he’s worth nothing, and a 50% change that’s he’s basicall the same guy he was before, so he would only get something around a $10M bonus if he were a free agent.

So, Drabek has less value, but if you get Garza for Drabek straight up, you’re not selling low – you’re selling, but because someone has bought into his previous value, not because you’re selling at 50cents on the dollar.

Is this realistic? Not particularly, but neither is getting Garza for Drabek straight up – precisely because of the above reality.

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 7:01 PM EST up reply actions  

but I don't necessarily believe that Garza's worth $20M in surplus

I see him as a 2.5~3 WAR player, which makes his surplus value (assuming $18M in salary for next 2 years) roughly $7M$12M. I know most people see him being better than that; I don’t.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 7:05 PM EST up reply actions  

$7M~$12M*

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 7:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I understand that

I said the values were made up. They were merely to illustrate the point, because you keep maintaining that trading Drabek meaning selling low, but it doesn’t. You can sell him without selling low, as the above case indicates.

Whether this is or is not the case is entirely a different point

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 7:38 PM EST up reply actions  

to explain your point a little differently

Drabek for Garza is selling low if you think his value in the future will be higher than it is now (ie, 2011 was a fluke). then you shouldn’t do the trade, since you get more value by holding onto Drabek

on the other hand, the trade is selling high if you think his value in the future will be lower than it is now (ie, he has some unfixable mechanical problem that manifested itself in 2011). then you should do the trade, because you’re getting value out of a worthless piece

by benk on Jan 1, 2012 7:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Not really what I'm saying

I’m not really discusisng his future value at all, except indirectly. At I’m talking about his current value, and past value.

I’m saying that Garza has a value, call it $X (or a range of values, that we sum up into an expected value $X). Drabek has a value of $Y2012, which is his current value. $Y2011 is his value before his meltdown in 2011. Now, $Y2012 is a weighted average of $Y2011 and 0, so $Y2011>$Y2012.

If you sell Drabek, and you $Y2012 in equivalent value, you may be selling low (depending on what happens in the future, your argument). If however, you get $Y2011 in equivalent value, you’re not really selling low. So if $X=$Y2011, then it’s not selling low.

As I said, in practical terms, this will not happen, unless a team truly believes that $Y2012=$Y2011. Even then, they should be able to get some sort of discount based on industry consensus – no one else will give full value. But I’m just talking theoretically

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 8:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I see what you're saying

And my opinion is that $Y2012 being roughly equal to $Y2011 and $Y2011 > $X

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 8:12 PM EST up reply actions  

OK

And we can (and do) disagree on that. I think that your view of $Y2012/$Y2011 is higher than mine, but the main difference is, I think your view of $X is lower than mine (and consensus). But that’s fine, I just wanted to make the theoretical point clear.

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 8:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Just to benk's comment

I want to clarify having thought about…it says nothing about the theoretical underpinning of what I was saying, but is relevant to a pratical understanding of it. Of course, I don’t see the practical terms as being very important, in this instance at least.

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 8:22 PM EST up reply actions  

The perception of how close $Y2012 is to $Y2011 will vary by team, according their thier percetpion of his future value…as you said. The only way a trade actually happens is if a team has a different view than the Jays, to the upside. These are the practical consequences of what I proposed.

I was talking on a theoretical level, where the relative differences in opinion on Drabek’s value among teams doesn’t matter

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

By trading him straight up for Garza...

We are getting a pitcher in his prime off a great season, who has proven success in his early years in the AL East?

I agree that his value is lower right now than it was when we acquired him, or it was last year, but that doesn’t mean we are selling low. The return is phenomenal. Matt Garza is a hell of a pitcher, who you seem to be forgetting was the number one prospect in the Twins system in 2007 (21st in all of baseball).

In his age 27 season (entering his prime) he posted a 5 WAR. I get it was in the NL Central, but his stuff would still have been good in the AL East.

Odds are Drabek never puts up the types of seasons Garza has put up. Odds are Garza continues his 3-5 WAR output for the next while.

We don’t even have to argue this though because no GM would trade Garza for Drabek.

.313/.400/.565

by T.Haynes on Jan 1, 2012 9:17 PM EST up reply actions  

He never posted an fWAR above 3.1 in his 3 years as a Ray

he averaged 2.53 fWAR over those 3 years.

Something tells me he’s not going to be 5fWAR-good in 2012

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 9:23 PM EST up reply actions  

They were also his age

24,25, and 26 seasons. Even if he is a 4 fWAR player in 2012 it’s a steal.

.313/.400/.565

by T.Haynes on Jan 1, 2012 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, but why are you assuming that he'll post 4 WAR in 2012?

Wasn’t ever that good until this year, when suddenly he moved to a weaker league to face new opponents.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 9:33 PM EST up reply actions  

He always had the pedegree

He was a similar level prospect as Drabek. Why do you think Drabek will get better? The discrepancy we saw in Garza’s numbers can’t all be explained by the change in leagues.

.313/.400/.565

by T.Haynes on Jan 1, 2012 9:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Why do we even think ....

Drabek will have a significantly better 2012?

.313/.400/.565

by T.Haynes on Jan 1, 2012 9:39 PM EST up reply actions  

because he was a top prospect

and was quite good at a not-old age for AA in 2010. there’s also the fact that it’s pretty darn difficult to be worse than Drabek was in 2011 and still be a professional pitcher

by benk on Jan 1, 2012 9:41 PM EST up reply actions  

So his...

3.87 FIP in 2010 at AA, where his K/BB ratio was below 2…. I don’t see that as “quite good.”

And even if he posted a 4.80 ERA with a 1.7/1 K/BB ratio at AAA (which would be significantly better), his value will plummet to insignificant.

I don’t see what everyone sees in Drabek. Drabek will have a very hard time ever being what Garza is today, or even was for the three years prior.

.313/.400/.565

by T.Haynes on Jan 1, 2012 9:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Drabek's stats are terrible

His stuff is still there

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

We hope

You can’t be sure of that. Really, his numbers haven’t been indicative of great stuff since FSL 2009. That’s not to say it’s not there, just at some point, you have to wonder why the great stuff everyone talks of has not shown up in results that way we would expect

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 10:01 PM EST up reply actions  

although I’m coming from hockey so my evaluation procedures are probably different then yours.

by Justin Azevedo on Jan 2, 2012 6:31 AM EST up reply actions  

it is

but meh

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 2, 2012 9:45 AM EST up reply actions  

as I said, I would do the trade

but talent evaluators (something I am not) universally saw Drabek as an excellent prospect. it’s unlikely that he’s lost everything those evaluators liked so much in the span of one short year

by benk on Jan 1, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Moderate success in the minors and his last name

Maybe that’s the key combination? He was only overly impressive at one stop and pretty forgettable at all the others.

What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward! 
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 2, 2012 10:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't know

should I say “I’m not a talent evaluator” again?

by benk on Jan 2, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions  

WAR adjusts for league and home ballpark

replacement level is different in AL and NL.

by Jono411 on Jan 2, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Does it?

For ballpark, I know things like wRC+ do, but unless fWAR does it implicitly by adjusting BRAA, then it’s not ballpark adjusted. It’s not done explictly. I have noticed small variations in BRAA from strict wOBA translation, so that could be it

by MjwW on Jan 2, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions  

I understand that

but It looks like an outlier year to me. His pitching style was completely different from his AL days.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 2, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions  

He did average

3 rWAR. Take it for what you want, but fWAR isn;t the be all end all. A 50/50 weighting gives you 2.75 WAR

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 9:34 PM EST up reply actions  

right

but his rWAR is probably skewed by the Rays’ excellent defense

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 9:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure

Which is why I use a 50/50 weight.

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 10:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I mean

you pretty much already know that Garza’s rWAR was inflated by the defense

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 10:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure

I use it as a rule of thumb…because pitchers very clearly have some control over the quality of the batted balls he allows, but we don’t know how much. ERA attributes everything to the pitcher, FIP none of it. So, as Tango says, split the difference as a “naive” forecast, but better than naive forecasts of ERA or FIP alone

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not good with stats

So I won’t use them to backup my point but I think his situation is similar To Romero coming up. Unimpressive numbers until he arrived in the Majors. Not to mention Drabek skipped a level.

by B-R_O-C on Dec 31, 2011 11:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Romero is an outlier

Eric Thames was higher in our system than Romero in most prospect ratings at one point.

Drabek still has upside and surplus value however. He should eventually develop enough control to at least carve out some type of MLB career.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 31, 2011 11:29 PM EST up reply actions  

FWIW

Romero only made 7 AAA starts at the end of 2008 before sticking in 2009 in th majors.

And as Mike said, it’s the exception, not the rule.

by MjwW on Dec 31, 2011 11:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll believe that when I see it

There’s no way this deal happens. But yes. Drabek for Garza. Yes.

by TimZig on Dec 31, 2011 11:47 PM EST reply actions  

To be honestly I'd much rather trade for Nolasco

His salary will be similar to Garza for the next 2 years and he’ll cost way less in terms for prospects

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 12:22 AM EST reply actions  

Theoretically, okay

But Florida isn’t selling so it’s kinda null proposition

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:28 AM EST up reply actions  

I also think there's something wrong with Nolasco

besides the fact that he’s underperformed his DIPS badly over the past 3 seasons, his K/9 has dropped by 3 (8% by K%). I liked him a lot too, but I’m not so crazy about him anymore

by benk on Jan 1, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Completely OT

But I went to CNN to watch the ball drop, and Kathy what’s her face and Anderson Cooper are insufferable to listen to. They make Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler’s banter sound like Vin Scully

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 12:22 AM EST reply actions  

Garza/Soriano

That would be a package that might get the Cubs ownership involved to push the baseball side to deal Garza. Offering Drabek, Teahen (rebuilding teams need guys who can play a few positions, plus he has an expiring contract after 2012) and a lower level prospect like AJ Jimenez for Garza/Soriano and $20MM to cover Soriano’s contract would be a great deal for both teams.

by cjcl590 on Jan 1, 2012 1:16 AM EST reply actions  

Why would you want Soriano?

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 1:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Theoretically

Take some bad money off their books to avoid giving up as much value in prospects. Like we did with Chicago to get Jackson for the Rasmus trade, taking Teahen. Problem is, Theo/Jed won;t go for this because they’d prefer to do the same to rebuild the farm – Cubs are big market team…

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 1:32 AM EST up reply actions  

straight up, yes. Chicago might ask for a C prospect with this, but I think most of you are rating Drabek lower than AA does. One bad year, a failure does not make. Take that with you into the new year

by khaleeji on Jan 1, 2012 1:49 AM EST reply actions  

Getting the #2 or #3 starter we need is too tempting to pass on

We know what Garza brings. He is that number 2 or 3 type starter we need now and will allow us to win 90+ games. Janssen, Oliver, Santos ( very impressive every time I have seen him ) form a good closing trio. This club can hit, I am not concerned about that. The starting pitching is just NOT good enough yet! We have no guarantee that Drabek will be under control enough anytime soon. Trade for Garza.

by Bob Bob Law on Jan 1, 2012 3:41 AM EST reply actions  

Do we really know what Garza brings?

He had been league averageish until last year where he went crazy, but the discernible difference in pitch selection could explain it as being a legitimate, sustainable improvement. Still it’s hard to say if we’d be getting the league average garza of most of his career or the 5 war garza of last year, the league could always adjust back to him.

Either way I don’t think it’s fair to say we know what we’re getting as league average-2011 garza is a pretty huge swing in production.

by Spitballer on Jan 1, 2012 10:52 AM EST up reply actions  

What is the % chance that Drabek becomes league average?

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 11:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh, it wouldn't get it done.

But my point is wouldn’t you rather have a decent-good pitcher you can rely on over one that may not even end up league average?

Why is everyone obsessed with Felix?
I would not give up the killer B’s or Montero for this guy! Why the heck is everyone obsessed with him?
by JBBY on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Obviously if it's an option, you trade an asset like drabek for garza, that isn't the deal breaker here.

The problem is, like you said, there would be more than drabek involved. Once you’re looking at a package of unproven assets instead of just one player, the probability of coming out better for it diminishes. If you view Garza as a league average pitcher, the payoff isn’t particularly good either. That’s all I’m saying here, you need to have confidence in garza the 5 war pitcher not being a mirage before you package the sort of upside it would take to get him.

by Spitballer on Jan 1, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

50 % because he will either be league average or he wont.

by wtf now on Jan 1, 2012 12:07 PM EST reply actions  

I guess I'd do this trade

there’s obviously a chance it comes back to bite us in the ass, but what are you gonna do. if we did do this trade, though, I’d like to see some other, not necessarily “selling the farm” but some moving of assets for players in their primes (ie, sort of going for it now)

by benk on Jan 1, 2012 12:14 PM EST reply actions  

do the trade. I’m all for going for it now because how many more years before the big bats start going south?

by wtf now on Jan 1, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I potentially agree with that mindset

but the only player we have who is quickly moving out of his prime is Bautista – admittedly our best player, but still. every other piece of our “core” is either entering their prime or not yet in it. Rasmus, Lawrie, Escobar, Snider, Thames, Arencibia, Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Santos… we also have a very good farm system, so while we could certainly move assets to compete now, it would really depend on the returns we get for those assets (as it always does).

another thing that works in your favour is that we’d probably never get fair value for Bautista

by benk on Jan 1, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I read

In another article about an interview with some Levine guy, that the Cubs would want Drabek and Jake Marisnick or Gose. Also they would want a Deck McGuire type also. Making the trade look like 2 solid young arms and a high ceiling outfielder.

I would not make this trade. Giving up on 3 high ceiling prospects for a middle of the rotation starter is not my idea of a smart AA move.

by r.j.mueller on Jan 1, 2012 12:44 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

If what you read is true

This would be by far the dumbest move AA will have made. I’d sooner give Carreno, a bubble guy, a chance to start this year than get Garza. No way do we make a move like this with those players involved.

"Subdue the enemy without fighting" ~ Sun Tzu

by kdlishus on Jan 1, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

totally agree

this would be tooooooooooo high a price to pay

by wtf now on Jan 1, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

that’s not going to happen for Garza. That might be the price for Felix Hernandez or Greinke, and I’m not sure we’d be wise to do that even

by khaleeji on Jan 1, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't believe anything I read.

Alex has said a thousand times…….If you hear about a trade the Jays are involved in than it is mostly likely not true. AA history with trades has shown that they come out of nowhere. I read this on Drunk Jays Fan. Levine is a chicago sports guy.

by r.j.mueller on Jan 1, 2012 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

don't believe half of what you read

and take the other half with a grain of salt unless it comes from AA himself. Remember the Darvish B.S.

by wtf now on Jan 1, 2012 12:56 PM EST reply actions  

P.S.

That was when we all got our panties in a knot

by wtf now on Jan 1, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I never believed for a second

I know that Yu was not going to be a Jay. Well my sports gut told me not to believe. You always go with your sports gut.

by r.j.mueller on Jan 1, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

does anyone know how to remove knotted panties?

my legs are bent funny and it hurts when I poop.

by wtf now on Jan 1, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I have recently received this feedback on my posting.

Does this sound like a good description of my posts on this thread?

most recently
Jays Offer Kyle Drabek for Matt Garza?
where each time someone gives you their opinion and supporting reasons, you counter with more argumentative postings, seems like a trend. I have seen it elsewhere also with you, and i do not feel the need to go dig up each one.

What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward! 
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 5:38 PM EST reply actions  

If this comment was from a moderator, you’re not making it any better.

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Jan 1, 2012 6:59 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

It was from Bleed Cubbie Blue.

What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward! 
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you think it is a fair representation of my posts on this thread?

What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward! 
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

where each time someone gives you their opinion and supporting reasons, you counter with more argumentative postings

Do I think this represents what you did in this thread? Yes. But I don’t see it as a problem, as long as the arguments are themselves reasoned and not rude/insulting. And I think they were generally fine in this post (I haven;t combed through, just a general recollection).

Just my opinion though.

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 9:19 PM EST up reply actions  

okay, thanks.

Argumentative implies hostility to me.

What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward! 
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 9:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Okay

I didn’t think it was hostile, at least in a personal sense (by definition, an argument is adversial/hostile)

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 9:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Then I guess I prefer to call myself a debater/fact-checker? haha

What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward! 
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 2, 2012 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

You mean like this?
No one said great.
You said mediocre, which is wrong.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 1, 2012 9:32 PM EST up reply actions  

What about it?

I was correcting someone.

What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward! 
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 1, 2012 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I think it’s important to be precise, especially when you’re labelling a player’s skill with that term. I didn’t think the correction was over the top, personally, though it wasn’t directed at me either

by MjwW on Jan 1, 2012 10:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly.

When labeling players, it really is important to get the words right. When misusing a word like mediocre, that player is being represented as something far below the quality of what he is.

And honestly, to Pikachu, if I had not questioned why you were posting so much on a baseball blog earlier, I doubt you would have taken issue with such a justifiable correction. Separate the present from the past, young grasshopper.

What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward! 
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 2, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Good DEBATE, guys.

Until the next time!

What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward! 
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 2, 2012 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

that last paragraph was unnecessary

you do things that make people not like you

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 2, 2012 10:56 AM EST up reply actions  

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