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Around SBN: Lance Berkman Could Have Torn ACL

Winter Meeting Day Two Open Thread

Not too much for rumors so far today.

Bob Elliot thinks the Jays have won the posting for Hiroyuki Nakajima. He would be an interesting choice to play second base. Maybe it is a test balloon for the Yu Darvish posting, trying out the system.

There are still rumors that we are in on Prince Fielder, I don't believe them but it is a nice little fantasy.

Beyond that? There are rumors we are after any and all available closers, but nothing specific on any one reliever.

I think it is going to be a long week, with us waiting for any real news. Anyway, use the thread to discus any rumors that interest you.

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A Hiroyuki Nakajima acqistion

Would be a very good Low risk high reward acqistion based on the posting fee.

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 6, 2011 12:08 PM EST reply actions  

Verry interesting...

IF – we did – what would that say about what the team really thinks about Hechy chances? What about Escobar’s future? How will the price of tea in China be affected – not to mention the price of snails in France?

OR – does AA already have an answer to the first two questions that involves the acquisition of even more shiny babbles for Magpie to puzzle over.

by Mylegacy on Dec 6, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I like the CAPS for if/or

it’s like he’s writing sentences as Excel formulae.

Check yoself before you rec yoself.

by Gerse on Dec 6, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

despite what Wilner will tell you

The overwheming reports are that the Jays are at least having discussions on Fielder. And why wouldn’t they? They said they’d be in on everybody.

They used to say they wouldn’t be in on anyone signing 5-6 year deals. Now they’re saying they won’t be signing anyone to 7-8 year deals. I read between the lines and think that if Fielder has to settle for 5-6, the Jays could be players.

Now we’re hearing the Cubs interest on Fielder is only on a shorter deal as well. The market may not be that great for Fielder, which could present an opportunity for AA.

It’s likely, I think, that Washington will go to 7 years and sign Fielder, but to say we’re not involved is just AA using the Toronto media as propaganda, in the same way he’s accusing agents of using the media.

by ayjackson on Dec 6, 2011 12:10 PM EST reply actions  

I agree, I think its obvious we have interest – you’re right, AA has only said we won’t give out 7-8 year contracts.

Everybody uses everybody to get an advantage in their job. media and agents use the Jays, maybe AA uses the media – I don’t really care about rumours and twists and lies – whatever they need to do to field the best possible ball club.

by Dr_Furious on Dec 6, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

i agree. some people get pretty wound up about it though.

by ayjackson on Dec 6, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Well...

AA has said – “Trades first.” However, lately he said trades don’t look so hot. So – if he has honestly tried the trade route – what’s left? Oh yes, chubby bouncy free agent first basemen.

by Mylegacy on Dec 6, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Fielder wouldnt take that

If he cant get an 8 year deal and the 7 is light, he might take a shorter term deal. But it would be 5 and have to set an AAV record, like 5/145.

by bennett3307 on Dec 6, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Never know. If the market legitimately isn’t there, he might be best to take something very short term and high profit, so he’ll be back out in the market while still in his prime.

by dexfarkin on Dec 6, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions  

agreed

He’s 27? He’d be 31 by the end of it, kind of like what Manny Ramirez did, plus it forces him to take care of his body. I’d be all over this type of deal if I was AA, but like you said, Prince may not be ok with it.

by Beleaf on Dec 6, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

RT @JimBowdenESPNxm: AA told @Mlbnetworkradio Jays are unlikely to sign Fielder because they’re not going past 5 years for him

by Beleaf on Dec 6, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

@JimBowdenESPNxm: AA told @Mlbnetworkradio Jays are unlikely to sign Fielder because they’re not going past 5 years for him

by Beleaf on Dec 6, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess we knew this

But I’m curious to see the $$ offered

by Beleaf on Dec 6, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Tom Tango

had a nice rule of thumb for estimating the tradeoff between average annual value (AAV) and length of contract. Take the AAV+years, and that gives you a number. Then, roughly speaking, for an extra year guaranteed year, the player/team should be indifferent with $1M less AAV. Now, this breaks down along the very extremes (very few years, a ton of years) So for example, 4Y/$100M = 4+25=29. So you’d get:

3Y, 26 —> 78M total
4Y, 25 —> 100M total
5Y, 24 —> 120M total
6Y,23 —> 138M total
10Y, 19 —> 190M total.

So I think this line of offers is a tad light…in other words, it would probably take something more like 5/125 (5+25=30 type line) to make it happen on a short deal

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Breaking

gregorMLB: #BlueJays have traded for a closer… Announcement coming now.

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011, Sept. 28, 2011 wasn't bad either.
7 members waiting for Aaron Hill's return...

by jays182 on Dec 6, 2011 12:47 PM EST reply actions  

Here it is

gregorMLB: #BlueJays have acquired Sergio Santos from the White Sox for Nestor Molina.

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011, Sept. 28, 2011 wasn't bad either.
7 members waiting for Aaron Hill's return...

by jays182 on Dec 6, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I just saw that on the livetracker at Yahoo

apparently, all the major reporters are tweeting it right now.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Dec 6, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

That I was not expecting…

by dexfarkin on Dec 6, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions  

typical AA move, none of us see it coming

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Dec 6, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I admit, of the ‘closer’ options, this is pretty sweet. Santos was lights out last year, and he’s controlable for, what, I think the next four years? Molina was amazing this year at A+ and AA, but if his destination was the bullpen in any case, I think it’s a clear upgrade.

by dexfarkin on Dec 6, 2011 12:57 PM EST up reply actions  

6 years

8.25/3, then 3(!) team options

Check yoself before you rec yoself.

by Gerse on Dec 6, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

the team option are very high

So I am guessing he would be bought out after the 3 years, but what the heck do I know.

by Rhinos on Dec 6, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you know the actual structure?

$/year, when/if they have to be picked up, etc?
I know the options total around 22M, but the structure may make one or two of them attractive.

Also, it’s important to remember that FA salaries are likely to balloon with the new CBA. I’m actually a big fan of locking people in for a while right now until teams really notice the inflation

Check yoself before you rec yoself.

by Gerse on Dec 6, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

danke

None of those seem too scary

Can they all be picked up separately?

Check yoself before you rec yoself.

by Gerse on Dec 6, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I believe they can

I guess for what relievers are signing for this year, it is reasonable. However, in my mind that seems to be a lot to spend on a reliever. That said, they are team options every year (I think).

by Rhinos on Dec 6, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Shocker

Wow. Just wow. As usual, no one saw it coming

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Apparently, the Jays aren’t that high on him. Definitely not as a starter. Wow. Santos is interesting, similar type comp really – SS to pitcher

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions  

That's pretty likely

a lot of scouts think he’s bound for the bullpen too because of his delivery.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Dec 6, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s the logical takeaway here. I guss the Jays are figuring on selling high here. Interestingly, same team we hooked with in unloading Zach Stewart – Kenny Williams is AA’s new victim?

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions  

He's one of the last "sheep" GMs that you can shear

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Dec 6, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions  

yea i guess the Jays don't think his stuff will translate at all to the majors

but obviously the white sox do to some extent.

regardless, i’m definitely less high on him than i was 5 minutes ago haha

by Jono411 on Dec 6, 2011 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I doubt that...

The Jays just think this is a good deal. It doesn’t mean they don’t think Molina will make it.

.313/.400/.565

by T.Haynes on Dec 6, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

if they think this is a good deal

then either they think molina has a very low chance of making it, or they think that santos is going to maintain last season’s production for 6 more years.

by Jono411 on Dec 6, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions  

They likely

believe their is a low chance with all of their young prospects.

You said that the Jays must not “think his stuff will translate at all to the majors.” I highly doubt that.

.313/.400/.565

by T.Haynes on Dec 6, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Considering if Nestor Molina works out we would be thrilled if he turned into Santos...

…it’s a really solid deal, I think.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Dec 6, 2011 1:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm feeling a feeling I haven't felt before...

It seems like…. a strong hate for Alex Anthopolous. What… what is this?!!!?!?

by Aidin on Dec 6, 2011 12:52 PM EST reply actions  

Well, that might be a little strong

Molina hasn’t done anything at the MLB level yet, so he could be just another failed prospect. Or he could turn into an all-star, too soon to tell. Santos isn’t bad either.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Dec 6, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions  

A little strong, maybe

Keep in mind none of us have ever seen him pitch. The Jays have a ton more information than we do about him, or any of the other prspoect people. I’m not sure what to make of this though

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Well I don't hate him...

But I feel a hate. ATM. Given how much love Molina has been getting, couldn’t we have made him a center peice to acquire Street? Or even Bailey?

I don’t know about this one

by Aidin on Dec 6, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Bailey

Has three years of control. Santos has three years left at $8.25M total, and 3 options years. That’s a lot more affordable

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Dec 6, 2011 1:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Fair enough

But I can’t help but feel Molina would have done just as well if we put him in the BP this season and converted him to a starter farther along in his development like Feliz

Does anyone want to throw up Santos’ stats in high leverage situations?

by Aidin on Dec 6, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Billy Bean would have asked for Gose.

Oakland needs a CF desperately.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

yea take it easy on the hate

AA knows what he’s doing…I just hope it isn’t the guy that wants to kill Bautista!! haha

by Beleaf on Dec 6, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions  

You're thinking of Danks

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Dec 6, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

It does seem a little steep.

They Jays do have 5 other pitching prospects that are close to the same level in a fair number of evaluators eyes.

by Marc Henderson on Dec 6, 2011 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly. Only 6 B+ prospects left on the farm. 16 B- or higher.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually

Sickels upgraded Hutchison to B+ – so still 7 B+ lol. Though I would caution about using Sickels stuff as be all end all

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

How many of those prospects are going to pan out in the MLB?

1/3? 1/2?

I don’t see anything wrong with this trade.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

That's important to remember, a lot of prospects don't pan out

Also, a fanbase has a tendency to overvalue their prospects.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Dec 6, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

It’s interesting – AA doesn’t seem to suffer from this at all (or at least compared to the general population), and we know we has a formal background in economics. I think this is potentially a mjor reason why he has been able to do some of the deal he has done.

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Know thine enemy and all that jazz

The enemy here being cognitive biases

Check yoself before you rec yoself.

by Gerse on Dec 6, 2011 1:12 PM EST up reply actions  

yea, but how much value do you expect santos to provide

over the rest of his team-controlled years? like maybe 4-5 WAR?

a 1 in 3 chance of molina becoming a mid rotation starter for 6 years is about as valuable as that. so obviously the jays think it’s less than 1 in 3.

by Jono411 on Dec 6, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

But the difference is that the Jays can afford to give up a Molina

You have to remember that the White Sox are in serious financial crap. They took a big bath in red ink this year when they expected to contend. Plus the WS farm system is one of the worst in the Majors.

Kenny Williams is being forced to unload anything he can for what he can.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

the yankees can afford to give a bench player $20 million

doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.

they only do this trade if they think the value they’re getting from santos exceeds the value they’re giving up from molina.

by Jono411 on Dec 6, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep

And AA does.

.313/.400/.565

by T.Haynes on Dec 6, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I have to agree with T, Haynes

Blowing away hitters in AA ball doesn’t mean he can in the MLB. Santos has MLB “street” cred and has done it for two years. Molina is untested.

Sure it can backfire on the Jays, but this is why AA is a master of the calculated risk.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Just to add, I would love to poker with AA

Just a personal example.

Played Texas Hold’em with some friends. Last card. Last game. My friend went all in on a pair of kings. I had two pair. We played it out. It came to the last card. He was sweating bullets. I was pretty confident. There was only a 0.8% chance (I think) of a king popping up. Guess what, the king popped up and I lost.

You’re wondering “what the hell?” I lost.

My point. I would still do the same thing all over again. I had a 99.2% chance of winning. There are no guarantees in life or a baseball trade, but when you have a 99.2% chance of winning you’re going to take it.

I’m sure AA did that math.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, I like the analogy, but it’s limited. In poker, you can actually do the math, and calculate probabilities – there are absolutes. In baseball, not so much. We don’t know how the prospect actually turns out – and different prospects in different orgaizations can do differently.

But I’m sure AA did the calculations based on the info he had, and we have to hope that his info is better than the WHite Sox

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions  

That's true

Too many variables and intangibles to calculate a baseball trade into a percentage.

What I do really like is that AA operates on the principle of calculated risk and he tries to focus on the win/win aspect as he usually gives up something the other team needs badly but the Jays have a surplus of.

One other point I read over at Camden Chat explaining the difference between the Orioles (and the WS) vs a team with a deep farm like Toronto.

“We NEED /fill-in-the-blank/ to succeed in the MLB. //the Jays/ can find maybe two MLB starters out of the 5 or so top prospects and it won’t kill them.”

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree, but you're a bit off on your math though

By the last card, you know of 8 cards from the deck (your 2 cards, his 2 cards, and the 4 community cards), so there are 44 remaining. He has 2 outs there, so 2/44 = 4.5% chance he pulls the K. Of course, that assumes you had a pair of Aces. If not, he gets more outs from the possibility of the board pairing, giving him a better 2 pairs.

Though I do agree with your analogy :). Even if baseball trades are more complicated, it still comes down to assessing the probabilities based on what you know, and following through with the decisions if the number comes out in your favor, or if they are fairly equivalent and you are dealing from a position of strength for a position of weakness.

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Dec 6, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d say higher than 4.5, because it’s 6 potential years. But I agree on the Jays’ logic. I believe they think they sold high on him, so let’s see.

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

2nd base

Second base is definitely going to be a challenge. We need someone with North American experience thought. Given Bob Elliott’s experience at 2nd while in Kingston, maybe sign him to a free agent contract. Apparently he couldn’t hit there, but we haven’t had consistent hitting from 2nd for a while so it’s worth a shot!

by northernjay on Dec 6, 2011 12:54 PM EST reply actions  

I thought the Jays had high hopes for him!

Just recently John Farrell said Nestor Molina was the likeliest to be the internal option for filling the closer position, so I guess you have unproven vs proven in this case…not sure what to think of this..in AA we trust.

by Beleaf on Dec 6, 2011 12:55 PM EST reply actions  

And what do you know, he was the best option for the closing role, as in he got traded for one.

by edliuen on Dec 6, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

we're giving up a few years of Nestor

but Santos is on a great deal right now, 3 years 8.25M

by benk on Dec 6, 2011 12:57 PM EST reply actions  

Exactly

If you think about it…6 years of control for both. And Santos is more established. This one will be interesting to watchto see how it turns out

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah

after my initial “ZOMG WE GAVE UP ASSETS FOR A RELIEVER?!?!?!?” reaction, this trade could be a win for either team.

by benk on Dec 6, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

i’m old, but i don’t understand “zomg”. i like it though.

by ayjackson on Dec 6, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I must be old too, I have no idea what the "z" stands for

but I hope Benk actually does say “zomg” in live conversations

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Dec 6, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know why zomg is a thing

but there’s OMG, then people started adding a Z to stuff so it became OMGZ, then it just became ZOMG for some reason

by benk on Dec 6, 2011 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

noooooooooooooo

we traded asset for a reliever we didn’t protect on the 40man.

by ayjackson on Dec 6, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Huh

Molina was added to 40 man and I can’t recall if Santos was ever on it, but he was a SS for us.

by Rhinos on Dec 6, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Santos left as a FA. We waived him from the 40man I believe. There were discussions about converting him to pitching, but he left and did it with Chicago.

And I was just being melodramatic. I like the trade, but will miss Nestor.

by ayjackson on Dec 6, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

I was excited for Molina as well. But Santos, Janssen, Litch (Cecil or McGowan perhaps) and maybe Frankie Fran. That is a decent pen.

by Rhinos on Dec 6, 2011 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I think it’s safe to say with this trade Frank Francisco is gone. He’ll get a shot to be a closer somewhere, the Jays don’t need have that role open now.

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Never say never. FF was pretty good in the setup role.

But the door is closed on FF being the Jays closer.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

FF would be fine in the set-up role, sure. And agreed, never say never (though I didn’t use that word) But there’s multiple reasons against him coming back:
1) He likely can find an opportunity to close elsewhere
2) He’ll command a multi-year deal
3) He brings back a pick if he leaves

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions  

True

And Jays may not want to pay the salary he will command for a set up guy. Plus AA said that FF will likely pitch elsewhere, but didn’t rule out that he would be back.

by Rhinos on Dec 6, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions  

is this the same santos who came along with glaus?

by HabsFanInCalgary! on Dec 6, 2011 12:57 PM EST reply actions  

Yes

Who was a SS at the time

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

This TOTALLY SUCKS

I’m not happy, i was really waiting to see what Molina could do. This just doesn’t make sense, his numbers were incredible. why would the Jays do this. AHH THIS IS JUST TERRIBLE THANKS FOR NOTHING AA>

I am seriously unhappy right now.

by TrueBlue4Ever! on Dec 6, 2011 12:58 PM EST reply actions  

TERRIFIC MOVE!!!

AA has made a MONSTER MOVE!!!!!

Santos: 63.1 IP, 41 hits, 6 HR, 29 BB, 92 SO’s! .181 batting average against and a WHIP of 1.11

AND _ SIX YEARS OF CONTROL!!!!

A proven closer, a guy that I LOVE to watch and it cost a guy who MIGHT be as good. EXACTLY, why you have extra talent in the minors. NOW – we’re down to JUST Hutchison, Syndergaard, Norris, Nicolini and a dozen or so other scary good PROSPECTS and we’ve solved the closer problem for over half a decade!

AA – you beautiful baby you!!!!

by Mylegacy on Dec 6, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Santos almost 100mph. Okay command. MLB experience. Cost controlled

I’m loathe to give up on someone like Molina, but so be it.

It’s not like the Jays are trading away a HOFer. Right?

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 12:58 PM EST reply actions  

yes

this is true and almost 14 k per 9 innings i noticed.

OK i need to breathe and digest this, but i was stoked on Molina… :-( hope this works out!

by TrueBlue4Ever! on Dec 6, 2011 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

True, but Molina suddenly becomes the top WS pitching prospect.

Their farm system is horrible. No pitchers or players because Kenny Williams traded them all.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

So what – that speaks to their system, not to ours.

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

What I mean is, Molina’s value is no higher as Chicago’s top prospect tha as our 5th or 10th or whatever

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Just saying that Kenny was desperate

Billy Bean would have asked for two top prospects (Gose being one) for Bailey.

AA only had to give up one for Sergio.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

It's kind of interesting, AA has dumped the two minor league starters in our system that a lot of scouts had pegged as bullpen guys

First Zach Stewart, now Molina. Maybe the scouts are right and the Jays’ management sees it the same way.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Dec 6, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

There's AA's emphasis on scouting.

I’m not surprised, but someone here shows that guys who blow away batters in AA with amazing k/BB ratios don’t fair well in the majors. Molina might be the exception, but who knows?

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Okay gotcha

Thought you were saying the reverse. I agree

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with this.

The Sox’s farm system is very dry, and anything we get this offseason will be the top prospects in the system. I believe Santos only netted 1 guy, albeit a very good pitching prospects, because he still has the chance to be a starter and Santos pitched way worse in the second half than the first half. Last series of the year, when he pitched versus the Jay’s, I saw him, he looked exhausted after 20 pitches.

by dasox313 on Dec 6, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, but it's also Ozzie who is crazy.

He abused the hell out of Jenks then craps on him when he fell apart.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Jenks though

is easily 80 pounds overweight. Santos is actually in really good shape and works hard. Ozzie did overwork Jenks, but a man of his size is going to have trouble keeping healthy if he can’t stop eating honeybuns.

by dasox313 on Dec 6, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions  

True, but the workload Ozzie put him through didn't help

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions  

yes

but the Sox are definitely better off with a pitching prospect than a “guy who pitches last” in the bullpen.

by ayjackson on Dec 6, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions  

We hope not a HOFer

If Molina cuts it as a starter, this one is much more expensive. If he’s a reliever, then I think this can be pretty good

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I was a believer in Molina's stuff

With that said, at least we finally found our closer.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.

by Frag on Dec 6, 2011 1:04 PM EST reply actions  

Good luck with Santos.

He is a solid reliever, and he has a team friendly contract for the next couple years. Jay’s got their closer now. Molina’s strikeout totals are crazy!

by dasox313 on Dec 6, 2011 1:06 PM EST reply actions  

Very so.

Sox finally get a prospect in our system and the Blue jays have a closer that is cost controlled.

by dasox313 on Dec 6, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

6M, 8M, 8.75M – 750K buyouts for each

by MjwW on Dec 6, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I believe

It is 1 million this year though.

by dasox313 on Dec 6, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions  

If you watch the closer market this winter even 8M seems like a team friendly deal…

"Touch ´em all, Joe!"

by jaysfanfromeurope on Dec 6, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks

those seem friendly enough

Check yoself before you rec yoself.

by Gerse on Dec 6, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Santos Contract Structure

* 2012: $1 million,
* 2013: $2.75 million,
* 2014: $3.75 million,
* 2015: $6 million club option,
* 2016: $8 million club option,
* 2017: $8.75 million club option.

Each option has a $750,000 buyout.

by Paul Boudreau on Dec 6, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the White Sox and the Jays think high of Nestor Molina...

You just have to give something if you wanna have a CL who is under controll till 2017…

It´s not fair to say Molina will end up in the pen… he has great numbers untill now and for me there is no reason to think he´ll slow down. I´m pretty sure he´ll make it in the bigs… in my opinion he´s better as Stewart for example…

"Touch ´em all, Joe!"

by jaysfanfromeurope on Dec 6, 2011 1:12 PM EST reply actions  

For all those disappointed Jays Fans... HENKE

Forget about our systemic depth, and names like Hutchinson, McGuire and Norris… and Wojo and Snydergaard and (the list goes on).
The important name is…
Henke
as was pointed out on the twitter, baseball reference, with their lovely age comparable statistics function, gives you this lovely gem http://bit.ly/taRlqC
That’s right, Sergio Santos’ most comparable player statistically in baseball history to this point in his career, is Tom “the Terminator” Henke, the greatest closer in Jays history (whose blue replica glove I still have somewhere)
So… there’s that then

PSRB

by Paul Boudreau on Dec 6, 2011 1:18 PM EST reply actions  

I can live with that. If SS sharpens his command a bit. Watch out.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Is AA the new Stan Lee?

We have another double initial player!

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 6, 2011 1:19 PM EST reply actions  

Awesome!

Mathis is such a horrible hitter. But I think he may be an okay backup Catcher.

by Rhinos on Dec 6, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Loving this deal

This whole closer process has been stressful! I was so scared when I heard we were going to overpay on a FA closer (cough…. Heath Bell…. cough)…. Now we have a closer on the cheap for 6 years, and it only costed us one prospect.

.313/.400/.565

by T.Haynes on Dec 6, 2011 1:30 PM EST reply actions  

my take on this

I view as a fair trade for both teams!
We have a lot good young arms in our system, yes Molina looked to be a great prospect based on his stats alone

Santos is a MLB closer and he is very good at it with control years just like AA likes at below value market.
I like this move because we filled a a position of need and gave up a player in we have a surplus of them in the minors.
We avoided going for FA close which at the rate they’re going its ridiculous to pay for someone who is only going to pitch 60-70 innings.
Its a good move for both…WS farm gets a great prospect and we get our closer

by elpikiman on Dec 6, 2011 1:33 PM EST reply actions  

don't worry

santos will save 35 games with a sub 2 era in 50 innings while k-ing a hundred, and then next year be converted to a cy-young winning starter.

molina will have tommy john surgery, get put on waivers, reclaimed by the jays, and then go on to win 20 games in consecutive seasons.

oh, and alex rios still plays for the white sox… that makes any deal with them a win

by Paul Boudreau on Dec 6, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

As much as I liked Molina

This deal means we can stop hearing in the media about how much the Jays need a proven closer. That in itself almost makes it worth it. :P

by brigstew on Dec 6, 2011 1:44 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

also means no frank fransisco.

Who wants to hear a funny ass joke?

by ohshrit on Dec 6, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I suspected we were going to lose him anyways. He brings a pick.

I wouldn’t mind him back in a setup role (and anticipate AA wouldn’t either), but probably best to take the pick. Santos is better anyways.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Dec 6, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

SCOUTING...

This trade – like most of the Silent Assassins work – was from out of left field (er the bullpen in left field) . AA’s reworked major and minor league scouting system identifies gems like Santos and the SA closes in for the kill (er save as it were).

by Mylegacy on Dec 6, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

"I think it is going to be a long week, with us waiting for any real news."

I like how news of the trade broke, like, an hour after this was posted. Can you do something like that again tomorrow?

My Mo Space

by durga2112 on Dec 6, 2011 3:27 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Other Rumours ... and Subsequent Thoughts

Warning … Don’t get your Knickers in a Knot … this is pure conjecture based on more wishing than any deep analysis and is worth no more than my two cents …

AA …" won’t do 5 years or more for Fielder " How about 4 years at $120M … Fielder, at age 31, off the books by 2016 along with Bautista … Blue Jays flying high with highschool draft from 10-11.-12 with 4 years of SRO attendance …

Starting pitching … dependant on Rollins signing somewhere other than Philly … Philly can’t afford to lose Rollins but can’t afford to pay him … Jays sign Nakajima to play 2nd … if Rollins signs elsewhere offer Escobar and d’Arnaud to Philly for Hamels (replaced by Worley) and if you want to push luck ask for Brown … Nakajima now SS/ Valbuena now 2nd base until Hechavarria completes Vegas finishing school in July … July 31st take a run for Ackley in Seattle with Nakajima/Drabek/Brown or Snider or Thames … even inquire on Felix …

Ortiz might be pried from Boston because allthough they offered him arbitration they really don’t want him at arb cost – 2yrs at $20M on a sign & trade would be better value than Fielder at 4yrs at $120M

by jgadfly on Dec 7, 2011 1:01 AM EST reply actions  

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